In May, floods swept through Mokwa, a community in Niger State, North Central Nigeria, killing over 160 people — the deadliest single flood incident in the country this year. Entire families were wiped out as homes, schools, and farmlands vanished under torrents of muddy water. More than 3000 people were displaced, according to local authorities. 

The tragedy was soon mirrored elsewhere. From Niger to Yobe, Adamawa, Rivers, and Lagos states, floods destroyed livelihoods and exposed the same recurring pattern: heavy rains, clogged drains, failed infrastructure, and official neglect.

Warning ignored

The devastation had been predicted. 

In February, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), in its 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), warned that rainfall would arrive early in parts of the south and late in the north, disrupting the usual rhythm of the wet season. The forecast, designed to guide preparedness across sectors, again proved accurate but was largely ignored. 

By August, over 272,000 people across 25 states had been affected, and at least 230 lives, according to data from the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA). 

The SCP projected early rainfall across Anambra, Bayelsa, Delta, Edo, Enugu, Ebonyi, Imo, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, and Rivers states, while Adamawa, Benue, Kaduna, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau, and Taraba were expected to experience a delayed onset. Other states were expected to follow typical seasonal patterns.

It also warned of an early end to the rainy season in parts of Bauchi, Borno, Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Plateau, Yobe, Zamfara, and the FCT, while Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Delta, Enugu, and Lagos would experience prolonged rains.

While unveiling the SCP, Festus Keyamo, Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, emphasised that climate forecasts were essential for strategic planning across sectors such as agriculture, health, marine operations, and disaster management.

Yet, three months later, the warning materialised — from the urban corridors of Abuja to the rural heartlands of Niger and Yobe.

Flooding in Nigeria, often seasonal, is tied to the torrential rains that sweep across the country from April to October. However, the scale and intensity of this year’s events, particularly the human cost, have reignited the need for conversations about climate change.

Epicentres of the 2025 floods

Niger State remains the hardest hit, but other states have also experienced catastrophic losses.

In May, Okrika, a coastal town in Rivers State, was hit by torrential rains that triggered floods and landslides, killing at least 25 people. The Niger Delta’s low-lying terrain and poor drainage make it particularly susceptible to such disasters. 

Up North in Yobe State, widespread flooding across the Potiskum and Nangere LGAs between June and August killed seven people and displaced over 6,687 residents, with more than 11,000 people affected. Farmlands were submerged, deepening food insecurity in a region already burdened by poverty and insurgency.

Flash floods also tore through Adamawa State, submerging at least 13 communities across Yola South and Yola North, displacing thousands and claiming several lives. In some parts of Adamawa, HumAngle found affected residents living in roadside shelters and makeshift camps, highlighting the scale of devastation and the urgent need for coordinated relief.

More recently, some neighbourhoods in Lagos were submerged for days following heavy rainfall. Gridlocked traffic, overflowing drains, and submerged homes became a familiar sight. The floods, which affected about 57,000 residents, underscored how unchecked urbanisation and poor planning continue to heighten risk.

Behind every data showing the scale of damage caused by flooding is a story of loss. Across the country, thousands now live in temporary shelters, vulnerable to disease and malnutrition, while the destruction of farmlands threatens food supply.

Major setbacks

Abbas Idris, president of the Risk Managers Society of Nigeria, told HumAngle that the recurrence of flood disasters reflects systemic negligence and poor governance.

“In Nigeria, we do not value life, which is why we keep allowing floods and other disasters to repeat themselves,” he said. “If we have a flood this year, and we know the cause, it shouldn’t happen again next year for the same reason.”

Abbas, a risk management consultant, said government response remains reactive rather than preventive. “Instead of activating proactive measures, authorities prefer distributing relief materials to victims after a disaster,” he said, adding that even these short-term interventions often fail to reach victims.

He pointed to poor drainage infrastructure as a critical factor in the country’s flood vulnerability: “In many cities and towns, drainage systems are either poorly designed, insufficient for the volume of water during peak rains, or completely absent.”

“Even where drains exist,” he said, “they are frequently blocked by solid waste due to inadequate waste management and public awareness. This leads to water pooling on roads and in residential areas, turning streets into rivers during heavy downpours and increasing the risk of loss of lives and property damage.”

Abbas also blamed uncontrolled urbanisation. Buildings are routinely erected in flood-prone zones, wetlands, riverbanks, and low-lying areas without proper environmental assessments or adherence to zoning regulations, he said. 

“If reckless urbanisation is the cause, then urban and regional planners and any relevant authorities must take responsibility for approving such construction.” 

In rural areas, deforestation and logging worsen the problem by stripping away vegetation that naturally absorbs rainfall. The result is faster runoff, soil erosion, and flash floods that devastate communities.

Without a shift toward proactive planning, environmental enforcement, and investment in resilient infrastructure, Abbas warned, Nigeria will remain at the mercy of climate-induced disasters.

De-escalating future risks

Experts have long warned that climate change is intensifying extreme weather events across West Africa. Rising temperatures bring heavier rainfall, while poor land use and deforestation worsen runoff and erosion. 

Nigeria already has early warning systems through NiMET and the Nigerian Hydrological Services Agency, which issue rainfall and flood forecasts to all levels of government. But, as Abbas warns, “Any early warning without early action is tantamount to inviting flooding to happen in the country.” 

“The only way out is adaptation,” he said. “But awareness remains low, even within government. We need proper education and sensitisation on climate change right from the grassroots. If we allow the climate impacts on the environment, then we are finished.”