The lawsuit comes two months after the state filed a similar lawsuit against competitor Kalshi.

New York State has filed a lawsuit against prediction market company Polymarket amid allegations that it violated state laws against illegal gambling.

The suit, filed on Thursday by New York State Attorney General Letitia James, comes two months after the state filed a similar lawsuit against competitor Kalshi. That followed the state suing Coinbase and Gemini for offering users the ability to bet on “sports, entertainment, and elections, in violation of New York laws”, according to a release from the attorney general’s office at the time.

The state accused all the companies of operating without licences from the State Gaming Commission.

“Our gambling laws exist to protect New Yorkers, prevent the potential harms of problem gambling, and ensure funding for educational and public benefit programs,” James said in a statement announcing the suit.

“By skirting New York’s laws, Polymarket is targeting the most vulnerable and depriving New York families of critical services and support. My office will never hesitate to take action to defend our laws and keep New Yorkers safe.”

The suit also alleges that the company encouraged gambling among young people. It accuses Polymarket of targeting users as young as 18, while state law requires users to be at least 21 years old to take part in mobile sports betting.

“By running an unlicensed gambling operation, Polymarket has done more than just knowingly violate state law, they have put New Yorkers at risk, especially those underage who are most vulnerable to problem gaming,” New York Governor Kathy Hochul said in a statement.

The more than 30-page lawsuit claims that Polymarket, which is valued at more than $20bn, has advertised sports betting in particular since July 2025. It pointed to a post on X from August 17, 2025, about the launch of its US mobile app that said it was “BAD NEWS (For sportsbooks)”.

Prediction markets allow users to wager on so-called event contracts, covering political events, sports, elections and even award shows. Concerns about the role of prediction markets came to a head earlier this year when wagers were made in the hours before the United States and Israel first struck Iran, prompting widespread backlash in Washington.

Polymarket pushed back on the allegations.

“We chose to engage with them directly on the substance and address their concerns,” chief legal officer Neal Kumar said in a statement.

“They preferred the media hit. Any time the [attorney general’s] office wants to swing by, our door is open for a conversation about how we protect consumers and offer fair, transparent and legal markets.”

Kalshi is facing similar allegations in New York State. Kalshi has been critical of reporting on lawsuits against it and allegations that it is akin to a sports betting or gambling platform.

Polymarket did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.

The Polymarket lawsuit comes days after reporting from the Wall Street Journal that alleged a wave of users had linked stolen bank debit cards and then used them to make wagers, effectively draining the accounts. According to the report, when CEO Shayne Coplan was made aware of the issue, he responded: “Just keep growing and pay a fine if regulators ever find out.”

Political pressure

New York State’s lawsuit joins a growing list of states that have sued prediction market platforms, including Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada and many others. Those states are at odds with the federal government, as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has claimed that the federal agency exerts authority over the regulation of prediction markets.

Polymarket has close ties with the family of US President Donald Trump. The prediction market platform has investment from 1789 Capital, a venture capital firm backed by Donald Trump Jr, the president’s eldest son, who also serves on the company’s advisory board.

A federal judge declined Thursday to rule immediately on a proposed settlement between Paramount Skydance and 12 state attorneys general, leaving the last major legal hurdle to the studio’s $111-billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery unresolved for now.

U.S. District Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín did not indicate how she would rule, but said she wanted more information before deciding whether to approve the proposed consent decree, a court-enforceable agreement that would allow the merger to proceed under certain conditions..

“I’m not the only one who has some questions for you all. There’s lots of interest,” said Judge Martínez-Olguín. “I appreciate people are interested, but I also want to make sure that I have everything that I’m going to consider in front of me.”

The judge said she would issue a ruling “in due course.”

The hearing comes three days after California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta announced that the two sides had reached an agreement.

It requires the combined company to release at least 30 films in theaters each year, commit at least an additional $1.5 billion to domestic film production and set aside $47.5 million for workers affected by the merger.

“When theater owners have publicly said that supply is the problem, those are voices that carry weight because they’re in the market,” said Paula Blizzard, an attorney for California, during the hearing. “They are the people we’re trying to protect — the businesses and the competition that we are trying to protect.”

The settlement proposal also includes stipulations on how basic cable channel negotiations must proceed, creates a board intended to protect the editorial independence of CBS News and CNN, and bars Paramount from selling or closing its Melrose Ave. lot or Warner Bros.’ Burbank lot while requiring the company to operate them “in a manner consistent with past practices.”

An independent monitor will oversee the settlement implementation. The agreement, if approved by the judge, will be in effect for five years.

“Paramount wants to get to work. Paramount is doing this deal because it wants to compete. Netflix, Amazon, Disney are far larger streaming undertakings,” said Josh Holian, an attorney for Paramount, during the hearing. “Paramount believes that a transaction like this can be transformative in fueling its ability to compete in that market.”

Before ending the hearing, Judge Martínez-Olguín assigned the parties several tasks, which included addressing a letter from U.S. Senator Cory Booker (D-N.J.) who echoed some concerns about the proposal.

Booker, the top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights, asked the judge to conduct an “independent public-interest review” before approving the settlement agreement. Because the U.S. Justice Department closed its investigation of the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger without seeking any remedies, Booker argued, the proposal is “the only enforceable instrument that will govern” the combined company.

Martínez-Olguín asked the parties to submit their responses to Booker’s letter by Monday, Sept. 28 at noon.

Warner Bros. Discovery Chief Executive David Zaslav had told staff earlier this week that he expected the deal to close no later than early October.

The settlement has divided Hollywood, with some saying Bonta bowed to political pressure from Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. During negotiations, Paramount threatened to move its studio out of state, which Newsom said he took seriously.

After the proposed settlement was announced, Paramount Chief Executive David Ellison said the combined company would remain in L.A.

Many in Hollywood are concerned about the threat of layoffs from the merger. Paramount has told Wall Street it plans to make more than $6 billion in cost cuts. A recent report commissioned by L.A. County estimated that 4,500 jobs could be lost over three years.

This week it was announced that Bush was joining Fox News Media as a contributor covering pop culture, entertainment, and cultural issues.

Bush joins other right-leaning personalities who’ve rebuilt their careers at Fox following scandals elsewhere.

It’s not surprising that former “Today” host Billy Bush joined Fox News as a regular contributor this week. What is surprising is that it took so long.

Ten years have passed since Bush, cousin to former President George W. Bush, was caught on a hot mic giggling while then-“Apprentice” star Donald Trump boasted about grabbing women “by the pussy.” The “Access Hollywood” clip, filmed in 2005 when Bush hosted the entertainment news program, was leaked a month before the 2016 presidential election, meaning just about everyone in America saw it.

A disgraced Bush lost his job and reputation. Trump won the White House.

Once known for his boyish charm and impressive collection of cowboy boots, Bush spent a decade re-ingratiating himself to the public on the syndicated television news magazine “Extra,” a considerable step down from the “Today” show. He reported on Hollywood and celebrity culture before launching his own digital show and podcast more than a year ago.

Now he finally has gone where popular conservative public figures go following scandals, stumbles or mishaps that all but destroy their livelihoods: Fox News. Rupert Murdoch’s crown jewel has given a second chance to more than a few successful, right-leaning personalities who have been shamed by mainstream media or canceled by a public who doesn’t find sexual assault boasts particularly funny.

Jeanine Pirro’s political career was derailed in 2006 after tapped phone calls she had with former New York City Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik were revealed. She had been plotting to bug her then-husband’s yacht in an attempt to catch him in an affair. After the transcripts went public, she lost the race for state attorney general to Andrew Cuomo. The scandal marked the end of her political career in New York — but the start of her career as a Fox News contributor and host. She stayed with the network for two decades. Pirro left last year when Trump nominated her to serve as the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia. She subsequently was confirmed by the Senate.

Pete Hegseth joined Fox News as a full-time host in 2017 after reportedly being forced out of leadership positions at two prominent veterans advocacy nonprofits, Veterans for Freedom and Concerned Veterans for America. Multiple disturbing accusations were made within the organizations about his sexual impropriety, financial misconduct and heavy drinking. Hegseth left Fox in 2024, when Trump announced him as the nominee for secretary of Defense. He subsequently was confirmed by the Senate.

The pipeline from scandal to Fox News to Capitol Hill was noted when Bush, now 52, made his debut Tuesday night on “Jesse Watters Primetime.” Host Watters joked that “Trump might hire you for the Cabinet” now that he had joined Fox News. Bush suggested a role for himself as White House press secretary. Watters countered that, saying, “Trump is expected to hire a woman.”

Bush joked that he has “female energy.”

The joke was tone deaf, even if Bush does deserve a second chance for his part as the dumb sidekick to Trump’s abhorrent comments during that “Access Hollywood” segment so long ago.

In a statement about his new role at the network, Fox said Bush would host “as a contributor, where he will appear across all platforms” The press release failed to mention his 2016 hot mic leak but managed to name-check Bush’s digital talk show and video podcast, “Hot Mics With Billy Bush.”

Bush may have dashed his chances of moving into Trump’s inner, or even outer, circle when on his “Hot Mics” show he said this of the president: “I had two relatives who served in that role and both had deep, deep, deep reverence for that office. The man that’s in there now has turned it into a bordello.”

He was taking issue with Trump’s ban on CNN, Politico and MS Now. The trio of news networks was denied access to the White House complex last week and had their press badges revoked after the president took issue with their coverage of him. In an unusual display of solidarity across the industry, more than 50 media organizations called for the immediate reversal of the ban. Bush praised the networks — including Fox — for their show of support.

How will Bush navigate his dislike for Trumpian policy at a news organization that’s devoted years of coverage to propping up Trump? By walking a fine line, apparently.

“I’m excited to join FOX News Media and its loyal audience to share my perspective on the people, ideas and moments shaping today’s culture … as well as the ones trying to undo it!” Bush said about his new job shaping culture.

Or quite possibly undoing it.

Chelsea target Bournemouth‘s Alex Scott, Bayern Munich are interested in Dani Olmo and Jude Bellingham denies Manchester City interest.

Chelsea will head the queue if Bournemouth‘s English midfielder Alex Scott, 23, becomes available in January. (Mail – subscription required), external

Bayern Munich are eyeing a potential January move for Barcelona forward Dani Olmo, 28, with a valuation of about £60m for World Cup-winning Spaniard. (Sky Sports), external

England midfielder Jude Bellingham, 23, will extend his contract at Real Madrid and is not interested in a move to Manchester City. (Fichajes – in Spanish), external

Atalanta and Italy defender Giorgio Scalvini, 22, is the subject of interest from Tottenham, Newcastle and Chelsea. (Caught Offside), external

Chelsea and Aston Villa do not have a January exit clause in the deal that took Argentina winger Alejandro Garnacho, 22, to the Midlands club on a season-long loan at. (Telegraph – subscription required), external

Liverpool are considering a move to bring 23-year-old English midfielder Tyler Morton back to the club from Lyon, with Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace and Brighton also keeping tabs on him. (Teamtalk), external

Chelsea are one of four Premier League clubs keeping a close eye on Manchester City and Uzbekistan defender Abdukodir Khusanov, 22. (Caught Offside), external

Juventus could be set to reignite their interest in Brazil goalkeeper Alisson, 33, whose future at Liverpool is in doubt. (Football Italia) , external

Barcelona will need to sell players in January to fund any incoming transfers, with Inter Milan and Italy defender Alessandro Bastoni, 27, on their shortlist. (Fichajes – in Spanish), external

Chinese authorities have reportedly taken possession of an F-35 cockpit canopy and weapons-bay door that were inexplicably diverted to Hong Kong while being shipped from Australia to the United States. The incident appears to have left physical components that incorporate aspects of the fighter’s low-observable design in the hands of a country that has spent years doing whatever it could to gain information on the aircraft and America’s stealth technology secrets in general.

So, what does all this mean? Let’s put it in perspective.

The parts in question were being shipped by UPS from Australia to the United States in late May, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg. The components from a Royal Australian Air Force F-35A were being sent to the United States for inspection and possible repair or disposal.

F-35 sustainment procedures explicitly cover the movement of F-35 parts, including unserviceable components, through the program’s logistics network. The U.S. Air Force’s transportation guidance directs F-35 shipments outside the Defense Transportation System to follow approved Joint Program Office procedures. In other words, moving an unserviceable Australian F-35 component to the United States for inspection, repair, or disposition is consistent with the normal sustainment process.

What is highly unusual is where this particular shipment ended up. F-35 components moving through an established international logistics system apparently stopped in South Korea, were then routed to Hong Kong. Chinese authorities subsequently took possession of the parts and have not returned them, according to the sources cited by Bloomberg.

“For security reasons, we can’t discuss the status of specific shipments or our shipping procedures,” Lockheed Martin told us in response to a request for clarification about the incident. The company added that it “follows all U.S. regulations established by the Department of War and regulated by the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) regarding the shipment of aircraft components. Our teams handle every shipment with the utmost diligence and safeguards to ensure the integrity of the F-35 program and the security of our allied partners.”

The Pentagon’s F-35 Joint Program Office has acknowledged a “shipment issue” involving F-35 components and said U.S. authorities and industry partners are working to recover them and investigate what happened.

Lockheed Martin, UPS, and the Pentagon have not publicly provided a detailed account of how the shipment was diverted or what happened to the parts after they reached Hong Kong.

Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles also confirmed that Canberra was aware of the incident and was working with the United States and Lockheed Martin.

Marles has sought to play down the potential security implications of the components, saying his understanding was that the shipment did not contain sensitive equipment or sensitive parts. That does not by itself answer the more specific question of what could potentially be learned from these particular pieces of an F-35. After all, not every physical component of an F-35 is necessarily highly classified or capable of revealing meaningful information about the aircraft’s design. At the same time, a cockpit canopy and weapons-bay door involve structures, materials, interfaces, tolerances, and treatments that all have to work within the aircraft’s low-observable design. If radar-absorbing material or other specialized treatments remain on the components, that could potentially make them far more sensitive from a technological exploitation standpoint.

The condition of the parts is also unknown. We do not know how much of their coatings or other treatments remain intact, whether Chinese authorities have examined them, or what information could actually be extracted from them in their current state.

Above all else, there is little specific information in the public domain about what F-35-related technical information Chinese intelligence already has acquired over the years, what physical components or materials it may already possess, or what additional information could be gained through espionage, cyber operations, industrial access, observation of deployed aircraft, or other means.

Without these facts, it is impossible to gauge what damage could have been done by this loss. Still, viewed in a vacuum of those unknowns, simply having an F-35 canopy and weapons-bay door in Chinese possession represents a significant loss of control over sensitive physical hardware — there is no way around that reality — and the severity of that loss could be substantial depending on the physical state of the parts.

The circumstances are particularly sensitive because, as we mentioned in the opening of this article, China has pursued multiple avenues for acquiring information on the F-35 for many years, with publicly documented cases involving cyber operations, technical information, supply chains, and human expertise. Some aspects of China’s subsequent stealth aircraft designs have also prompted comparisons with U.S. aircraft, although claims that China simply ‘cloned’ entire aircraft are not supported by the available evidence.

China And The F-35: A History Of Espionage

In 2014, U.S. authorities charged Chinese businessman Su Bin with conspiring with two other Chinese hackers to break into the computer systems of U.S. defense contractors. Prosecutors alleged that the group targeted information on aircraft including the F-35 and F-22. The alleged hacking campaign ran from 2009 to 2013.

Su Bin later pleaded guilty and was sentenced to nearly four years in prison. The Justice Department’s 2026 case against former Air Force fighter pilot Gerald “Runner” Brown connects the two cases. Prosecutors allege that Brown used a co-conspirator to negotiate his work training Chinese military pilots with Su Bin.

Brown, a retired U.S. Air Force major who spent more than 24 years in the service, subsequently worked as a contract simulator instructor training U.S. military pilots on the A-10 and F-35. In February 2026, the Justice Department charged him with providing and conspiring to provide unauthorized defense services to Chinese military pilots.

According to the criminal complaint, Brown traveled to China in December 2023, where he allegedly began training People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) personnel. Prosecutors say he also answered questions about the U.S. Air Force for three hours on his first day in China. Brown has been charged, and the allegations have not been adjudicated. He is one of multiple former Western aviators alleged to have provided training services and/or intelligence to Beijing.

The Honeywell case provides yet another example, this time involving the defense industry’s supply of technical information.

In 2021, the State Department reached a $13-million administrative settlement with Honeywell over alleged violations of the Arms Export Control Act and International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR). Honeywell had voluntarily disclosed alleged unauthorized exports and retransfers of ITAR-controlled technical data.

The case involved 71 engineering drawings containing dimensions, geometries and layouts for manufacturing castings and finished parts used across multiple aircraft, engines and military systems. The State Department said the unauthorized exports and retransfers involved Canada, Ireland, Mexico, China, and Taiwan.

Among the systems covered by the drawings were components associated with the F-35 and F-22. The case did not allege that Honeywell deliberately sought to provide China with sensitive military technology; rather, it concerned alleged violations of export-control requirements.

There has also been a physical supply-chain precedent.

In 2022, F-35 deliveries were temporarily halted after the Pentagon discovered that a magnet in the aircraft’s Honeywell-built turbomachine pumps —which provide critical power functions to the jet — contained a cobalt and samarium alloy produced in China. The material itself was not considered a security or flight-safety threat, but the discovery demonstrated how difficult it can be to maintain complete visibility over a global supply chain involving thousands of companies and multiple tiers of subcontractors.

Taken together, these cases demonstrate several different pathways through which China has appeared in the F-35 security story: cyber theft, unauthorized technical-data transfers, supply-chain exposure, and alleged exploitation of former Western military expertise.

The Hong Kong incident would add another major category: physical access to actual F-35 components.

These are only some of the publicly documented examples. There is no public way to know the full extent of information or physical material Chinese intelligence may have acquired over the years, but is very likely far larger in scope than what is available in the open source.

Chinese Access Concerns Have Shaped F-35 Export Policy

The security issues surrounding the F-35 are significant enough that concerns about China have affected not only how the United States protects F-35 technology, but where Washington is willing to export the aircraft in the first place.

The proposed sale of F-35s to the United Arab Emirates became deeply entangled in U.S. concerns about Abu Dhabi’s growing military and technology relationship with China.

Washington had approved a potential package involving 50 F-35As, but U.S. officials and lawmakers expressed concerns about Chinese intelligence activity and technology in the UAE. Among the broader concerns were Chinese telecommunications infrastructure and the possibility of Chinese military or intelligence access to facilities associated with advanced U.S. weapons. A Congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission report later cited the potential presence of Chinese intelligence collection capabilities and military facilities in the UAE as risks to the proposed F-35 sale.

The issue has now resurfaced with Saudi Arabia.

The State Department recently approved a potential $24.3-billion sale to the Kingdom involving 48 F-35s and associated equipment. But U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly warned that China’s military and technology relationship with Saudi Arabia could create opportunities for Beijing to obtain sensitive F-35 information.

According to reporting based on U.S. officials familiar with intelligence assessments, a Defense Intelligence Agency report raised concerns about Chinese military access to Saudi bases, Chinese technology in Saudi telecommunications infrastructure, and whether secure facilities could be maintained for F-35 operations. The assessments also questioned whether Saudi Arabia would limit contact between Chinese military and intelligence personnel and F-35-related sites.

What Could The Components Reveal?

As we noted earlier, there is no way to gauge the intelligence impact of the loss at this stage. The central unknown of what China already knows about the F-35, and what it may already have in its possession — especially related to these components — is the key variable here.

Regardless, an F-35 canopy and weapons-bay door can provide information that cannot otherwise be easily obtained and gives a different level of fidelity in terms of material exploitation than what construction data and blueprints alone could.

The F-35’s low observability is the product of an extremely complex combination of airframe shaping, construction materials, external coatings, manufacturing tolerances, speciality apertures, and more.

A canopy is a particularly demanding part of any stealth aircraft. It has to satisfy optical and structural requirements while also controlling radar reflections. The cockpit is historically a major source of radar reflectivity, including the pilot’s helmet. Therefore the canopy’s materials, construction, interfaces, and specialized treatments can be critical to the aircraft’s overall low-observable performance, and especially from the critical frontal aspect.

The F-35’s canopy has been an ongoing work in progress for many years. It has had chronic material issues, especially when it comes to delamination. Multiple iterations spread over two decades have recently resulted in a major improvement of the issue. The tight balancing act of keeping the canopy transparent enough, while controlling the F-35’s stealthy signature and having that mix of materials be robust enough to last for a reasonable amount of time has been a major investment for the program. If the canopy is of a later variation, that loss alone could be substantial and could help China with their own low-observable canopy development programs even if they already had original information on the F-35’s canopy original design dating back years.

The F-35’s canopy has been a notorious work in progress, specifically the low observable coating/delamination issue which has improved a lot in recent years with new materials and processes. So no, you do NOT want to lose that in to China! https://t.co/9V0jdRAiwA

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) September 19, 2026

The F-35’s weapons-bay door has its of sensitivity issues. It is effectively a major section of the aircraft’s outer shell, with its structure, edges, interfaces, tolerances and treatments all having to function without creating unacceptable radar signatures. Its construction and material attributes can be reasonably extrapolated for the rest of much of the F-35’s outer mold-line. Above all else, if the radar absorbent material remained intact on the door, that would signify a major loss when viewed without any understanding of what China already knows about the F-35’s radar absorbing surface treatments. Historically speaking, RAM technology is among America’s closest guarded material sciences secrets.

For the time being, Australian officials have said they do not understand the parts to be sensitive. The investigation will ultimately have to establish what the components actually contain and what could be learned from them.

The incident comes at a moment when China’s own stealth fighter efforts are undergoing an extraordinary expansion.

The PLAAF is now operating the J-20, China’s first operational fifth-generation stealth fighter, in increasingly large numbers. The smaller J-35 is also moving toward broader service, including a carrier role for the People’s Liberation Army Navy.

China has also moved into what Western observers generally describe as sixth-generation fighter development.

Two new tailless combat-aircraft designs emerged publicly in December 2024. One is the large Chengdu aircraft commonly referred to as the J-36, while the other is associated with Shenyang and is variously called the J-XDS or J-50. Both have continued flight testing and yielded several prototypes with individual refinements.

The exact capabilities and eventual operational roles of these aircraft remain uncertain. They are developmental designs, not established operational equivalents of the F-35 or other sixth-generation systems. However, China is clearly building an increasingly broad ecosystem of fifth- and next-generation low-observable combat aircraft, both crewed and uncrewed. In the latter category is a growing number of stealthy drones, including long-endurance types.

China didn’t likely need physical access to an F-35 canopy or weapons-bay door to develop the J-20, J-35, or its next-generation aircraft. But additional information about how a mature Western stealth aircraft handles materials, coatings, interfaces, manufacturing, and the integration of those elements can still have great potential value to an industry developing its own systems. This includes technologies intended to counter the U.S. combat aircraft and their low-observable characteristics.

The F-35 has been produced in large numbers, is operated by a growing coalition of countries, and has been subjected to years of testing and operational experience. Its low-observable design represents decades of accumulated U.S. research and industrial know-how. At the same time, the global scale of the program inevitably makes control over sensitive information more complicated. More aircraft, more maintainers, more industrial partners, and more international logistics mean more points at which information and physical hardware have to be controlled. Over time, a program of this size will see an erosion in its secrets, but a major loss can drastically accelerate what should be a more gradual and control decline in security.

The potential intelligence value of the components also has to be considered in the context of foreign material exploitation, or FME. Major military powers maintain dedicated capabilities to recover, examine and characterize foreign weapons, aircraft, sensors, materials and other equipment. The objective is not necessarily to reproduce an entire system. More important is determining how something is built, what materials and manufacturing techniques are used, how individual components perform, and where industrial strengths or limitations may lie.

That is why countries have historically gone to extraordinary lengths to recover even crashed or damaged pieces of sensitive military hardware. The bigger the prize, the more risk an intelligence service would be willing to take in order to realize a recovery.

The sensitivity surrounding the physical remnants of an F-35 is not new. When a Japan Air Self-Defense Force F-35A disappeared over the Pacific in 2019, the search quickly became more than a rescue operation. U.S. and Japanese forces mounted an extensive effort to locate the wreckage, with U.S. Navy P-8A aircraft and a destroyer joining the search. TWZ noted at the time that even scattered F-35 wreckage could expose valuable technological secrets, while the aircraft’s location on the seabed raised the prospect of an underwater espionage and recovery operation.

That concern has also been evident in subsequent F-35 recovery operations. That concern has been reflected in subsequent F-35 recoveries. In 2022, the U.S. Navy recovered an F-35C from roughly 12,400 feet in the South China Sea after a carrier landing accident, removing the possibility that the aircraft could be accessed by another country.

Unanswered Security Questions

At this point, there is no public evidence that the Hong Kong diversion was a deliberate Chinese intelligence operation, although it is certainly possible. It is also unclear whether Chinese authorities have examined the F-35 parts or what level of new and useful information has been recovered from them.

If, as reported, Chinese authorities have taken possession of the parts and have not returned them, that would be an extraordinary development. If the diversion was genuinely the result of a shipping or logistics error, the outcome would itself be extraordinary. It would raise serious questions about the security controls surrounding the movement of F-35 hardware even without evidence of deliberate interference.

The timing is also notable. Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Washington this week for a state visit with President Donald Trump, with the two leaders meeting amid broader disputes involving technology, security, and the future of U.S.-China relations. Whether the F-35 shipment comes up directly in those discussions is not known, but it would be an obvious subject for U.S. and Chinese officials to address through diplomatic channels.

“Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States Donald J. Trump and First Lady Melania Trump, accompanied by the President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping and Madame Peng Liyuan.” pic.twitter.com/hyPHOBC99Q

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) September 24, 2026

For now, however, the central question remains how the parts got there. Until that is answered, we won’t know if this was a simple logistics failure or a deliberate intelligence operation. And beyond that, what China already knew about the components it now may have in its possession — a question we may never truly get an answer to.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

SHARON Stone has entered the conversation surrounding Sydney Sweeney’s controversial naked sports betting ad.

Sydney, 29, sparked backlash earlier this month for posing completely naked in a campaign promoting the sports betting app, Novig.

Multiple well-known female figures – including Olympic athletes – have criticized the Euphoria actress’s racy photos for the male-focused app, accusing her of sexualizing women’s sports.

Sharon weighed in on the discussion on Wednesday while speaking to People at Variety’s 2026 Power of Women event in Los Angeles.

When asked for her thoughts regarding the X-rated ad, the Basic Instinct star said that Sydney should “take responsibility” for the campaign.

“I think that it’s up to her to take responsibility for her actions, not up to me to judge her for her actions.

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“It is up to me to be a cheerleader for the women who have made it through and become champions in women’s sports,” Sharon told the outlet.

“We can’t denigrate women’s sports to get men’s attention so they can gamble,” she added.

The ad captures Sydney in various compromising positions, using sports equipment to block her private parts.

Some photos show The Housemaid star straddling a basketball hoop, with her bare crotch against the rim.

In others, the TV star posed in a locker room wearing nothing but shoulder pads or holding two footballs to cover her breasts.

Team GB star Amy Hunt slammed Sydney for painting a false picture of women’s sports during a post-race interview.

Australian Olympic water polo star Tilly Kearns shared a similar message on Instagram about her disapproval of the provocative ad.

Former Olympic runner Hannah Williams also made her feelings known on social media, arguing that female competitors already have to fight to be taken seriously.

The shocking photos came after Sydney received heat for her extremely racy scenes in the third season of Euphoria, which premiered in May, as her character, Cassie Howard, pursued a career as an OnlyFans model.

Many fans thought her sexy scenes “went too far,” especially when Cassie dressed as a baby and posed seductively in a diaper.

At the time, it had been only a few months since Sydney’s other controversial jeans campaign with American Eagle sparked widespread fury.

Critics were outraged when the Anyone But You star seemingly implied in the ad that white women with blue eyes and blonde hair were the epitome of “good genes.”

Sharon commented on the campaign and the backlash that ensued at Variety’s Power of Women event last October.

“It’s okay to use what mama gave you. It’s really fine,” Sharon, who co-starred with Sydney in several episodes of Euphoria’s third season, said of the scandal.

“It’s hard to be hot, and I think we all know that. It’s really okay to use every bit of hotness you have — right here, right now — and go for whatever that is, because everybody has their own certain kind of hotness, their own certain thing, and you’re supposed to go for that.”

She added, “Because who are you not to be beautiful? You know, who you are isn’t an accident.”

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s pick to lead the Food and Drug Administration voiced support for the safety of long-established vaccines at a hearing Thursday, even as senators questioned her about the White House’s efforts to upend childhood immunizations.

Dr. Heidi Overton, a physician serving as a White House adviser, has worked on a series of Trump health initiatives, including an executive order last month that called for splitting up and spacing out decades-old childhood vaccinations. Overton stood beside Trump in the Oval Office when he falsely remarked that the combined measles, mumps and rubella, or MMR, vaccine is “quite lethal.”

Senate Health Committee Chairman Sen. Bill Cassidy, a physician from Louisiana, pushed Overton to reject that statement and affirm the safety of FDA-approved vaccines.

“Right now every vaccine that is on the market has been determined to be safe and effective,” including the MMR vaccine, Overton said.

Cassidy repeatedly has tried to extract commitments from Trump health nominees to uphold vaccine standards, including from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., only to see the Republican administration push forward with efforts undermining their use.

“Kennedy gave me guarantees, and he did not keep them,” said Cassidy, a Republican. “If the president asks you to do something that goes against those guarantees you give us today, what will you do?”

Overton said she would “follow the statutory requirements” for FDA commissioners and give Trump her best advice.

If confirmed by the Senate, Overton would inherit a raft of other controversial projects at the agency, including a safety review of the nation’s principal abortion drug and new rules that make it easier to sell flavored electronic cigarettes. Both issues were a focus for Republicans and Democrats on the panel, who will vote on Overton’s nomination.

Overton sidesteps past statements on abortion pill

The FDA approved the abortion pill mifepristone in 2000 and repeatedly has affirmed its safety while broadening access, including allowing it to be sent through the mail. But Kennedy ordered an FDA review of the drug’s safety last year, following calls from antiabortion groups and lawmakers favoring abortion restrictions.

While working at the Trump-aligned America First Policy Institute, Overton called the FDA decision to allow mail delivery of mifepristone “dangerous for women,” referring to the practice as “chemical abortion on demand.”

In response to questions from Washington Sen. Patty Murray, Overton sidestepped her personal views on the drug, stating that it “has met the safety and efficacy determinations of the FDA.” Overton said she didn’t want to “prejudge” the FDA’s safety review of the pill.

“The FDA has said this is safe,” responded Murray, a Democrat. “We need someone in FDA to make sure this is done by science.”

Overton’s abortion views could complicate her efforts to win over two moderate Republicans on the panel: Maine Sen. Susan Collins and Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski. Both have bucked their party on the issue, supporting federal access to abortion. Collins is locked in a tight reelection race in which abortion access is a central issue.

But Collins focused her questions Thursday on a different issue: recent FDA decisions allowing new flavored e-cigarettes onto the market. Under previous administrations, including Trump’s first term, the agency had restricted sweet flavors that appeal to kids.

Overton pointed out that approval of the fruit-flavored products had the backing of FDA scientists, who determined the products met the standard of “appropriate for the protection of public health,” by helping adult smokers quit cigarettes.

“They believed that standard was met because so many adult smokers are using flavors preferentially,” Overton said.

To become commissioner, Overton will need a majority of votes from the 21-member health committee, followed by a positive vote from the full Senate.

Under the current administration, leading the agency has involved balancing Trump’s demands for slashing regulations — such as those for vaping products — alongside Kennedy’s interests in scrutinizing vaccines, drugs and food ingredients.

The previous FDA head faced numerous challenges before quitting

Those challenges dogged the tenure of the previous FDA head, Dr. Marty Makary, who resigned in May. Makary’s time at the agency was defined by scientific disputes, leadership changes and a string of media stories detailing low morale and internal dysfunction among staffers. The FDA has lost about 20% of its employees to layoffs, buyouts, retirements or resignations since Trump took office.

Overton studied under Makary at Johns Hopkins University, where she received a doctoral degree in clinical research after earning her medical degree at the University of New Mexico.

Like Makary, Overton has no experience running a large bureaucracy, a critical skill for steering the FDA’s 16,000 staffers spread across numerous U.S. and international locations.

In financial disclosure forms, Overton reported no investments in healthcare or food companies. That’s a stark contrast to Makary and other recent FDA nominees who have had to divest investments or cut other financial ties with companies regulated by the FDA.

Overton reported $50,000 to $100,000 in student loans.

Perrone writes for the Associated Press.

Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid/England)

Pau Cubarsi (Barcelona/Spain)

Marc Cucurella (Real Madrid/Spain)

Ousmane Dembele (Paris St-Germain/France)

Luis Diaz (Bayern Munich/Colombia)

Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United/Portugal)

Gabriel (Arsenal/Brazil)

Erling Haaland (Manchester City/Norway)

Achraf Hakimi (Paris St-Germain/Morocco)

Harry Kane (Bayern Munich/England)

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Paris St-Germain/Georgia)

Lamine Yamal (Barcelona/Spain)

Sadio Mane (Al-Nassr/Senegal)

Marquinhos (Paris St-Germain/Brazil)

Lautaro Martinez (Inter Milan/Argentina)

Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid/France)

Nuno Mendes (Paris St-Germain/Portugal)

Lionel Messi (Inter Miami/Argentina)

Joao Neves (Paris St-Germain/Portugal)

Michael Olise (Bayern Munich/France)

Willian Pacho (Paris St-Germain/Ecuador)

Julian Quinones (Al-Qadsiah/Mexico)

Declan Rice (Arsenal/England)

Rodri (Barcelona/Spain)

Fabian Ruiz (Paris St-Germain/Spain)

William Saliba (Arsenal/France)

Ferran Torres (Paris St-Germain/Spain)

Dayot Upamecano (Bayern Munich/France)

Vinicius Jr (Real Madrid/Brazil)

Vitinha (Paris St-Germain/Portugal)

Macklemore says ‘being apolitical during a genocide doesn’t work’, promises to donate proceeds to Palestinian causes.

Grammy Award-winning rapper Macklemore has announced a string of shows in support of Palestine after he was controversially dropped from Ed Sheeran’s United States tour after speaking out against Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza.

The 43-year-old American rapper, who has almost 40 million monthly listeners on Spotify, announced his Free Palestine Tour on Thursday, with shows set to take place in Dublin, Paris and London in late October.

Macklemore said he will be joined by other musicians and will announce their names soon. He added that US shows are currently being organised.

He said all proceeds raised from the tour will be donated to causes supporting the Palestinian people and the wider movement.

“If these last couple of weeks have shown us anything, it’s that something has shifted over the last three years,” Macklemore said in a statement.

“There has been a collective awakening around Palestinian liberation, the power of billionaires that try to censor that call, and what we expect from artists right now. It’s 2026. Being apolitical during a genocide doesn’t work anymore,” he continued.

“People are asking artists to show up, educate themselves and be in community. To use the stage for more than entertainment. To push back when the call for a Free Palestine is met with attempts to silence it.”

English punk rap duo Bob Vylan have expressed their support for the tour, responding to Macklemore’s Instagram post with a heart emoji. The British YouTuber and influencer known as Chunkz, who has more than four million followers on Instagram, also praised Macklemore.

Attempts to silence Macklemore

On September 4 at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium, Macklemore, who was one of Sheeran’s opening acts, expressed support for Palestine.

“A big part of the reason why I wanted to do this tour in the first place is so I could stand up in stadiums like this and say two words that are very near and dear to my heart: ‘Free Palestine’ … My message is for peace; love for all human beings to be treated with dignity, respect, and equality,” Macklemore told the audience at the time.

Soon after, the rapper announced that he had been dropped from the Sheeran tour.

Venue owner Robert Kraft later confirmed that Macklemore was barred from performing at his Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Kraft denounced what he described as the rapper’s “broader history of antisemitic rhetoric and imagery” and argued that such actions led him to decide that allowing Macklemore to perform at his venue “would cross that line”.

Kraft is a Jewish-American billionaire and has donated to several Israeli causes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is the subject of an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes and crimes against humanity, said in 2019 that Israel did not have a “more loyal friend” than Kraft.

Macklemore claimed Sheeran and his team removed him from the tour following pressure from Kraft.

He alleged that Kraft rallied the owners of the remaining stadiums that the tour would include and persuaded them not to allow him to perform. The rapper said that Kraft then told Sheeran the tour would not go ahead unless he was dropped.

Neither Kraft nor Sheeran have commented on Macklemore’s allegations that stadium owners were contacted by Kraft.

Next year, the Los Angeles Chamber Orchestra — an intimate, 42-player group compared with the more than 100-member Los Angeles Philharmonic — will warm its new home, the highly anticipated, Frank Gehry-designed Terri and Jerry Kohl Hall. And it will do so with the help of a little light music: fanfares commissioned from half a dozen preeminent film composers — John Williams, Ludwig Göransson, Joel McNeely, Thomas Newman, James Newton Howard and John Powell — curated by none other than Seth MacFarlane (best known as the creator and star of “Family Guy”).

The buzzwords are lighting up, but this is far from a game of performing arts Mad Libs; it’s actually quite intentional. “We really thought about … ‘What statement can we make to Los Angeles and to the performing arts world that really shows who we are?’” said LACO Executive Director Ben Cadwallader. “Who is the Los Angeles Chamber Orchestra, specifically? And it really was this tie to Hollywood, to Los Angeles, to our musicians themselves.”

MacFarlane was a natural fit.

“I loved movies and I loved movie music,” MacFarlane said of his childhood in a recent interview. “I would go to the record store and buy the latest John Williams soundtrack, which was usually out before the movie was released. I remember buying the ‘Jurassic Park’ soundtrack not having seen the movie, and it didn’t matter. It was just great music. It was just great, symphonic music.”

LACO was founded by an assemblage of musicians and civic leaders in 1968, including the cellist James Arkatov. After emigrating from Russia as a child, Arkatov became the principal cellist at the Pittsburgh and San Francisco symphonies before landing in L.A. He arrived as a Hollywood studio musician, played on movie soundtracks and did backing for Ella Fitzgerald.

From the beginning, LACO served as “the artistic outlet of studio players … these incredibly gifted musicians who bring our movies and TV shows to life,” said Cadwallader, a situation that remains true to this day. LACO’s musicians know it’s “a place where they can play … Bach and Mozart, and make music at a really high level in a performance environment, not a studio environment.”

This is why the christening of LACO’s new home is also a homage to its roots: film composers. These giants of their fields will each write a spry, five- to seven-minute-long fanfare as openers for select LACO concerts throughout the season. (The works will also be performed at the Wallis Annenberg Center for the Performing Arts, with John Williams’ piece arriving first, in fall 2027.)

MacFarlane knew just what to do, thanks to his long history with music. The actor, animator, filmmaker and comedian has released 10 studio albums, received five Grammy Award nominations and performed as a vocalist at the Hollywood Bowl and Carnegie Hall. (He also just released a 14-track album called “Seth MacFarlane Sings the Muppets.”) Plus, his parents raised him steeped in music.

Nothing has changed here — throughout his career, MacFarlane has been relentlessly committed to including live music in his projects. The musical numbers on “Family Guy” simply couldn’t (and wouldn’t) exist without an orchestra.

“It would somehow feel thin and hollow, and people may not know why their attention is drifting, but it would drift,” MacFarlane said. “I really think you need the muscular sound of 60 musicians in a room, and in the case of ‘The Orville,’ sometimes 90. … Hollywood has been doing it since pictures went to sound, and I hope they continue to do it for as long as we make film and television.”

MacFarlane noted that the only time many people actually hear a live orchestra is in film or television.

“I don’t know how many people go to the symphony,” MacFarlane said. “So that’s certainly a component. When I was a kid, even the syndicated afternoon cartoon shows used a live orchestra, and when you go back and you listen to them, oftentimes it’s pretty legit composing. And I think that was important to have heard. I think it’s just good for the brain to hear complex symphonic music.”

Composer, conductor and longtime MacFarlane collaborator Joel McNeely (whose wife, Margaret Batjer, is LACO’s concertmaster) got MacFarlane involved in this commissioning initiative. Then MacFarlane selected the participating composers (and supported the initiative financially). One final Mad Lib to solve: What exactly, you may be wondering, is a fanfare?

“The perfect example … is the beginning of ‘Star Wars,’” Cadwallader said, then hummed the intro. “There’s big, loud brass. You cannot help but pay attention. … It puts a smile on your face. It maybe gets your heart racing a little bit. It’s usually very rhythmic, very bright. It’s like a big warm smile, or like a popping of a Champagne cork, to start a concert. … A bursting, effervescent moment of music to get things started. An amuse-bouche, if you like.”

The California Supreme Court excoriated Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco over his seizure of hundreds of thousands of Proposition 50 ballots earlier this year, ordering the former gubernatorial candidate to immediately hand over all remaining material in a pair of scathing decisions on Thursday.

“We hold that the seizure of the ballots was unlawful,” wrote Chief Justice Patricia Guerrero. “While allegations of election improprieties are a very serious matter, our Elections Code contains numerous established mechanisms for investigating and proving misconduct that do not compromise the integrity of voted ballots — contrary to the means employed here.”

The ruling comes less than two weeks before Californians will start casting ballots in the race for governor and a handful of hotly contested congressional midterms — nationally watched elections that would be vulnerable to similar interference unless the court gave clear orders, advocates warned at oral arguments last month.

“It’s bound to be repeated again,” said Chad W. Dunn of the UCLA Voting Rights Project, which led the first of two election interference suits against Bianco, a popular MAGA personality and former Republican candidate for governor.

Bianco has long flirted with President Trump’s election fraud conspiracy movement. Though the ballot seizures in February were widely seen as a campaign stunt, the legal theory behind them — that local lawmen can commandeer voter materials from elections officials, and that sheriffs are unanswerable to officials who outrank them, including attorneys general — belongs to a larger “constitutional sheriffs” ideology.

California‘s seven Supreme Court justices appeared by turns perplexed by and incredulous of those theories during oral arguments last month.

“You are walking into a very dense thicket of very specific laws that govern elections in particular and I think it’s a very established cannon of interpretation that the specific trumps the general,” Justice Goodwin H. Liu said.

The ballot battle emerged from a Riverside County pilot program meant to boost voter confidence, a handwritten tally that ultimately fell about 46,000 votes short of the official count, sparking claims of fraud.

Riverside County Registrar of Voters Art Tinoco met with the county board of supervisors and the citizens’ group behind the claim and carefully explained how the discrepancy emerged. Yet, Bianco pursued warrants to seize more than 650,000 ballots, alleging they were evidence in an investigation of wide-ranging election fraud.

When he learned of the warrants, California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta ordered Bianco to stand down. Instead, the sheriff accelerated his plans, dispatching armed deputies from Riverside County’s Special Investigations Bureau, Emergency Response Team and SWAT unit to sweep up the votes.

Later, Bianco directed his underlings to begin counting those ballots by hand — a potential felony under state law, which forbids anyone other than an election official from so much as touching a ballot container.

When Bonta again ordered him to stop, Bianco argued the attorney general had no authority to command him, later claiming in court that the law conferred only an “advise and consent” role.

In fact, California courts have spent more than a century delineating power between the state’s attorney general and local sheriffs and prosecutors. Voters took the matter a step further in 1934, endorsing a ballot initiative that clearly named the attorney general as California’s top law enforcement official, and put the state’s other lawmen beneath him.

In a footnote, justices also took a swipe at Bianco’s initial effort to have the case tossed for lack of standing — a move apparently undertaken on the legal advice of an elaborate artificial intelligence hallucination.

“In his preliminary briefing, Bianco challenged petitioners’ standing based on misquoted passages from, and an incorrect recitation of our holding in, Common Cause v. Board of Supervisors,” Guerrero wrote. “We disapprove of the improper use of artificial intelligence tools, which apparently contributed to the significant error that occurred here and remind counsel of attorneys’ professional duties of competence and candor to the court.”

Speaking to BBC Sport after the fight was announced, Fury’s promoter Frank Warren repeatedly returned to one word: compromise.

“Everybody’s got to make a compromise,” the Queensberry boss said. “Tyson really compromised. He didn’t dig his heels in.

“He said, ‘Fine, wherever they want it, I’ll do it. If they want me to go to New York, I’ll go. They want it in the UK, I just want to get the fight on.”

The fighters had already agreed to the contest but the venue was a sticking point.

Warren says Netflix wanted New York, while Joshua, 36, was determined to fight in Britain. Predictably, their camps disagree over who finally got it done.

Joshua’s promoter Eddie Hearn described the push to keep the fight in Britain as a “two-man crusade”.

“AJ has turned down money to keep it in the UK,” Hearn told the Matchroom YouTube channel. “I wouldn’t be able to look people in the eye if I was part of the movement to take this to the US.”

Hearn says Joshua had specifically requested protection for a UK fight in his contract and refused to relent.

“We were under so much pressure to fold,” he added. “It was only really the support of the British public that made Joshua stand 10 toes down and say no.”

Warren sees it differently.

He says Fury, 38, could have insisted on his own contractual position but instead accepted Britain to ensure the fight did not collapse.

Tigray People’s Liberation Front says in a ‘situation of full-blown war’ with Ethiopia’s government.

Ethiopia’s army says it has killed at least 272 fighters from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in a counter-offensive in the country’s northwest Amhara region.

The Ethiopian National Defence Force said on Thursday that another 260 Tigrayan fighters were wounded and several were captured.

“Government forces launched a counter-offensive that inflicted heavy personnel and equipment losses on the TPLF” after the group and its allies attacked several areas of North Wollo, a region of Amhara that borders Tigray, the army said in a statement on Facebook.

The intensification came days after TPLF and six other armed groups from across Ethiopia announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, which committed itself to removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.

The coalition brought together the newly-formed Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army and other movements from the Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz regional states.

‘Full-blown war’

“We are in the situation of full-blown war now,” TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa told AFP news agency on Thursday.

He confirmed that Tigrayan forces were fighting alongside local armed groups in Afar and Amhara.

The alliance marks a striking realignment that had been almost a year in the making, bringing together armed groups with very different histories and grievances against the central government, including forces with histories of conflict among themselves.

In a statement issued as the fighting widened on Wednesday, the alliance said the federal government was attacking its forces on several fronts and presented their response as part of the broader struggle that had brought the coalition together.

Meanwhile, the escalation has disrupted air travel, as Tigrayan forces seized three local airports in the region.

Flights to Lalibela, a UNESCO-listed site in Amhara known for its medieval rock-hewn churches, were suspended on Thursday, according to Reuters news agency.

AFP also received reports of fighting around Lalibela, causing its airport to close. The area has often been targeted by the Fano, a local armed group that is now operating alongside the TPLF.

Wider regional rivalries

TPLF last went ⁠to war with the Ethiopian federal government in 2020, leading to a devastating two-year conflict that ended with a peace deal in 2022.

In his address at the UN General Assembly on Wednesday, Ethiopia’s President Taye Atske-Selassie Amde blamed the escalation on “the forces of destruction and mayhem” and “interference in our internal affairs by adversarial elements”.

He said Ethiopia had exercised “immense restraint” and made progress with its neighbours.

Analysts say the Tigray rebels have support from Eritrea, which fears landlocked Ethiopia is planning to invade its territory to gain access to the Red Sea.

The TPLF’s Assefa told AFP “we have no information about Eritrea’s plan”. Asked if they would request Eritrean intervention, he said: “Not yet.”

Ethiopia’s domestic conflicts are becoming harder to separate from wider rivalries in the Horn of Africa, particularly Addis Ababa’s deteriorating relationship with Eritrea and Sudan’s civil war.

Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has visited Asmara twice since July for talks with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, while Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, reportedly visited Addis Ababa in late August.

Sir Mark said: “Prosecutors rightly opposed bail on multiple occasions, building on officers’ clear assessments of the great risk he posed, and yet bail decisions were ultimately made that prioritised the offender’s interests over the safety and the peace of mind of the victims.

“A victim and their family found themselves living in close proximity to a man who had admitted targeting them.

“They were so fearful, they ultimately felt forced to move to distant temporary accommodation, disrupting their lives and disrupting their children’s lives, simply to escape being in the neighbourhood of the offender.”

He also criticised “some grossly irresponsible technology and AI companies”.

He said: “Dogan voyeuristically photographed children known to him before using an AI photo-editing technology to manipulate those images for his own sexual gratification. Companies must do more to prevent their platforms and tools from being used to facilitate sexual offending and harm.

“Innovation cannot come at the expense of public safety, and industry has a clear responsibility to help prevent these technologies being exploited by predators.

“Victims, in this case extremely young children and their families, deserve better from both the tech companies and the criminal justice system.”

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MADONNA is an expensive Material Girl – flogging a square of pink fabric for £40. 

The Queen of Pop, 68, posed in a pink veil on the cover of her No1 album Confessions II and is now selling replica versions on her online store. 

The item is described as a 58-inch sheer pink veil, with a “custom Madonna graphic tag” in the corner. 

However, fans are also being charged £5.54 in shipping fees on top of the £40 cost. 

One fan joked: “Madonna really said, ‘Why buy sheer pink voile for $3.99 a yard when you can buy it from me for $45 with a tiny tag sewn on it?’” 

Another fan account for the star wrote: “That’s a lot for a piece of fabric #Madonna.” 

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The item is among a raft of new merchandise, including a £40 rhinestone drinks tumbler, £40 tote bag, £35 water bottle and £7 pencil set. 

Madonna will tomorrow release a remix of her track Danceteria featuring Charli xcx, 34, months after an online spat. 

They fell out in April when Charli gave an interview to Vogue and quoted a line from her track Rock Music, in which she sings: “The dance floor is dead, so now we’re making rock music”. 

But Madonna, who had just launched the campaign for her dance-inspired album Confessions II, clapped back in an Instagram post in which she wrote: “If your dance floor feels dead, maybe you’re playing the wrong music.” 

They made amends when they were photographed at Paris Fashion Week in June and then hosted a club night together. 

It is now hoped they will perform their track together for the first time at the MTV Video Music Awards in Los Angeles on Sunday night. 

With 11 nominations, Madonna is the frontrunner to win big at the event  

She will open the show – her first performance at the ceremony since 2003 when she famously kissed Britney Spears and Christina Aguilera on stage during a mash-up of her songs Like A Virgin and Hollywood. 

Sources in the US said she is likely to be joined by multiple guests although exact details of her set are being kept under wraps. 

Charli, who is nominated for four awards including Best Pop and Best Long Form Video, will be in the US at the same time as she is currently on a tour across North America. 

However, she played in Boston on the east coast last night (THURS) and is due to perform in Washington on Monday. 

Snoop Dogg, 54, will host the ceremony, which will be available to watch on streaming service Paramount+ and from 9pm on MTV on Monday. 

Los Angeles County officials aim to break ground on the new Eaton Canyon Nature Center before 2028, with plans to construct a facility that can withstand the region’s changing climate and future disasters.

The previous nature center, which replaced the original Robert M. McCurdy Nature Center that burned down in 1993, was destroyed in the Eaton fire last January. The fire not only destroyed the structure but also a large library and several decades’ worth of archives, and it also killed the reptiles that lived inside the center.

It took about five years to rebuild and open the last nature center. L.A. County Parks Director Norma Edith García-Gonzalez said after the design phase is completed, which could be soon, the county and the architect firm hired for the project will plan out the construction phase.

“We modeled 100-year patterns of wind, fire and flood so that when we build back, we are building back with resistance, and that is able to guide how we plant [and] what type of plants, and how we build, [including] how we build back trails,” García-Gonzalez said.

Norma Edith García-Gonzalez, director of L.A. County Department of Parks and Recreation, speaks during an Eaton Canyon design meeting in mid-September.

(Kayla Bartkowski / Los Angeles Times)

The biggest impediment to rebuilding, though, is funding. The county has about $16.2 million in state money, about half of what county officials think is needed to build a new nature center, she said. García-Gonzalez said she hopes the philanthropic community will step up to fill the gaps, but county leaders have noticed that “philanthropy goes from one hot issue to another,” and interest to donate to fire recovery is cooling.

In this week’s edition of The Wild, our weekly outdoors newsletter, I will provide an update on the design plans for the new nature center and when we can expect to hike again in Eaton Canyon — and how you can help with the canyon’s restoration too.

First, let’s discuss a little bit of the history of the area.

The Eaton Canyon Natural Area, managed by L.A. County Parks and Recreation, is a 190(ish)-acre swath of land at the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains near Altadena.

“Originally called ‘El Precipicio’ by the Spanish settlers because of its steep gorges, it is now named after Judge Benjamin Eaton, who built the first Fair Oaks Ranch House in 1865 not far from Eaton Creek,” according to the Eaton Canyon Nature Center Associates, a volunteer-run education and stewardship group. “Judge Eaton was the first to use irrigation from the creek to grow grapes on the slopes.”

The canyon has long been a fascination of adventuresome L.A. residents.

The hike to Eaton Canyon Falls in the San Gabriel Mountains before the Eaton fire last January.

(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)

In 1921, writer Frances Mathilda Purdy wrote for The Times that few people knew of the “hidden, but very easily accessible waterfall” in Eaton Canyon. Purdy outlined a few ways to access the canyon and reach the falls, including a shorter route where visitors “after alighting from motor, or stage,” could take a small flight of stone steps near the Mt. Wilson Toll Road bridge.

I chuckled when I read Purdy’s suggestion that this particular route was “perfectly comfortable for those who have arrived on the scene in city garb.” Apparently, underprepared hikers have been coming to Eaton Canyon for more than 100 years. What do you think was the 1920s version of hiking in flip-flops?

For the more rugged adventurer, Purdy laid out a “serpentine trail” that leads to “such lovely possibilities for the pleasure-seeking jaded worker, who, from only one afternoon spent in this quietly entrancing corner of the great outdoors, will return, refreshed and invigorated to meet the daily grind with a mind stored full of the charm of Lower Eaton Canyon.”

Architect Anne Mooney of Sparano + Mooney Architecture speaks about a site plan for the next Eaton Canyon Nature Center.

(Kayla Bartkowski / Los Angeles Times)

It wasn’t until 1930 that Pasadena set aside property that the city owned for a bird and game sanctuary in Eaton Canyon and Eaton Wash, preserving the land from development, according to a historical record compiled by the nature center associates.

There was interest in doing more.

Pasadena Park Superintendent Gilbert Skutt, who served from 1923 to 1936, wanted to see a large scenic public park in Eaton Canyon similar to what the city had built along the Arroyo Seco, according to city records. “He sought to correct the imbalance in the distribution of park space in Pasadena, which favored the west side of town,” according to a historical document. “During the Depression, however, the city could not afford to purchase the land.”

Over time, the city started working with county officials on Eaton Canyon Regional Park, eventually giving the entire project to the county.

In 1931, the L.A. County Board of Supervisors considered financing a 1,000-acre “gigantic regional park system” for the area, according to The Times’ archives, but that idea apparently never fully came to fruition.

Thankfully, in 1950, landowner Mary Beatrice Fox sold the canyon portion of her property to L.A. County to use for a park, “with a provision that mammals are not to be kept in cages,” according to a park history compiled by the Eaton Canyon Nature Center Associates.

A hiker slips in a creek in Eaton Canyon after a 2023 storm.

(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

Then, in 1958, naturalist Louise A. Luckan moved her “nature appreciation operation from the Eaton Canyon Golf Course to Eaton Canyon Park,” according to the organization’s history.

Soon, L.A. County officials set aside $154,797 — about $1.7 million in today’s dollars — for the Robert M. McCurdy Nature Center. They had big plans for the facility, which was to include two classrooms, an office, museum, library, display area, gift shop, laboratory and an auditorium that could seat 200.

“This park will be an outstanding facility — the only one of its kind in magnitude this side of Chicago,” Supervisor Warren Dorn said in a 1962 Times story.

The nature center opened in 1963, and became popular among scouting and school groups, to whom naturalists taught about the local flora and fauna. By the early 1970s, more than 2,000 school children were regularly attending lectures at the nature center, according to Times archives. The students wrote thank-you notes to the park staff, including one that read, “I think it was nice of you to buy this park instead of someone buying it for houses and factories. Because if they did, it would ruin this beautiful land.”

L.A. County sustainability policy director Rebecca Ferdman talks with community stewards about how to educate and engage the public about the goldspotted oak borer, a pernicious invasive beetle that destroys oak trees, during a meeting at Eaton Canyon Nature Center in 2024.

(Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)

But, in 1993, the canyon’s first nature center was destroyed by the Kinneloa fire. The next nature center didn’t reopen until 1998.

Karen Mateer, vice president of the Eaton Canyon Nature Center Associates, said for more than 25 years, that nature center served as a meeting place and an educational hub for the millions who visited the canyon over the years.

Mateer, who started volunteering in 1998, said many local schoolchildren first experienced the concept of “nature” at Eaton Canyon on field trips. Volunteers would regularly hear from adults, who pursued recreation- or nature-focused careers, that the first place they ever hiked or learned about their natural habitat was at Eaton Canyon.

“Eaton Canyon also, for the community, for those of us up here who lost so much, it is familiar and is a place you often go for recreation, for solace,” Mateer said. “It means a lot.”

At a presentation last week, architect Anne Mooney said her firm analyzed where to best place the new nature center, and not wanting to destroy any existing habitat or take down any of the area’s oaks or other trees, recommended the new building be placed east of the previous site.

It was easy for visitors to miss the previous nature center, because it was situated in a thick stand of oaks, and the new location will allow the nature center to serve as a gateway to the park, as it will be near the canyon’s trailhead.

“The nature center has always been more than just a building,” Mooney said. “It’s really been a gateway to an experience of learning about nature, experiencing a connection to the wildlands and developing stewardship of the canyon. We want to continue that tradition.”

A diagram of the wind analysis conducted by architects as they assessed where to place Eaton Canyon’s new nature center.

(Kayla Bartkowski / Los Angeles Times)

The new nature center, as shown in the current design plan, is horseshoe-shaped with a covered entryway. It will be constructed using durable, fire-resistant materials, including stone and steel. Builders would also construct curved walls to serve as windbreaks, which would not only slow gusts but also divert airborne embers during a fire.

The proposed designs also include roof and eave sprinklers that could pre-wet the building and nearby surrounding area with a specialized firefighting foam during a wildfire.

“We recognize that the fire is a recurring part of the ecology, and we will have another fire,” Mooney said. “We’re working to design something that allows us to be more prepared in the future.”

The Eaton Canyon Nature Center, a 7,600-square-foot building, was destroyed in the Eaton fire. It housed live animals, exhibits, classrooms, a gift shop and more.

(Jaclyn Cosgrove / Los Angeles Times)

The design also includes a research lab, a learning lab or classroom, a large multipurpose space that can fit an estimated 150 people when seated (or 300 people when standing), an exhibit space, a gift shop and a large courtyard in the center with shade, seating and live animal enclosures.

Officials stressed that the design is preliminary and dependent on funding. Anyone who wants to see the design for themselves and provide their feedback can attend the next public meeting, From Ashes to Action: Reimagining Eaton Canyon, from 5 to 7 p.m. Oct. 7 at the L.A. County Arboretum.

Kevin Singleton, center, points to the Eaton Canyon Nature Center design during a recent county event where officials discussed the future of Eaton Canyon.

(Kayla Bartkowski / Los Angeles Times)

In terms of when hikers will return to the canyon’s trails, García-Gonzalez said the county needs an estimated $8 million to reestablish the trail system. The county has fundraised and received only $900,000 of that.

“We already put that money to work,” García-Gonzalez said, partnering with L.A. Conservation Corps to start rebuilding trails. “But there are some [trails] that really need significant and heavy engineering.”

The county also has to plan its work around the strong winter storms forecasted as a result of El Niño, she said. “We are bracing ourselves for even more damage,” García-Gonzalez said.

A map of the proposed courtyard of the new Eaton Canyon Nature Center.

(Kayla Bartkowski / Los Angeles Times)

Since the fire, volunteers have donated hundreds of hours to work on restoring the canyon’s habitat.

You can join them. Volunteers meet from 8 to 11:30 a.m. every Friday and the second and fourth Saturday of every month. Participants remove invasive plants that zap up resources for native plants trying to reestablish themselves. Training and tools are provided. You can sign up by visiting signupgenius.com.

“The love, the care, the stewardship, the commitment, the hope, the inspiration of the volunteers is unparalleled,” García-Gonzalez said. “They’re driving us to build back because they’re so committed. They’re all in.”

3 things to do

“MASH,” a military dramedy that aired on CBS from 1972 to 1983, is one of several Hollywood productions filmed at Malibu Creek State Park.

(Courtesy of California State Parks, 2026.)

1. Celebrate 50 years of public land in Calabasas
Malibu Creek State Park will celebrate its past 50 years from 4:30 p.m. to 10 p.m. Saturday at 1925 Las Virgenes Road in Calabasas. Attendees can touch fossils, explore the park‘s trees and make art, all while listening to music and eating from local food trucks. At Stories Under the Stars at 6:30 p.m., a diverse cast of storytellers will teach visitors about the park’s history, culture and science. The L.A. Astronomical Society will host a star party at 8 p.m. Guests are encouraged to carpool or use the free shuttle from Juan Bautista de Anza Park to the park. The event is free, but parking is not. Register at eventbrite.com.

2. Repair the river near Azusa
Volunteers are needed from 8 a.m. to noon Saturday, which is National Public Lands Day, at the Oaks Picnic Area near the San Gabriel River for a cleanup effort. Organized by five community conservation corps groups, including San Gabriel Valley Conservation Corps, volunteers will pick up trash and help clean the river. Register at docs.google.com.

3. Cast a line under a full moon in Castaic
Friends of Castaic Lake will host the organization’s final Moonlight Madness event of the year from 6 p.m. to 12:30 a.m. Saturday at Castaic Lake. Guests can fish from the shore, from a boat or not fish at all as they enjoy an evening in the outdoors. Tickets start at $23. Glow sticks required for each participant. Register at givebutter.com.

The must-read

Jim Crouch stands in a field with Englemann oaks at the Santa Ysabel Open Space Preserve.

(Sandy Huffaker / For The Times)

Jim Crouch, a retired science teacher near San Diego, noticed how the oak trees around him were disappearing, succumbing to disease, drought and development. Times contributor Jessie Schiewe wrote that Crouch, moved to action, collected acorns and gave away the resulting potted seedlings to others. Now, after planting 10,000 acorns, he dreams of the day he completes his 20,000th seedling. “I’ve never been so ambitious,” he says, “and I’ve never done a project with as much love in it and as little ego.”

Happy adventuring,

P.S.

Torrey Pines State Natural Reserve will be closed until March as construction workers upgrade gas, water, wastewater and communication lines. They also will install new accessible parking stalls and an accessible pedestrian path from the upper parking lot to the restroom and park’s lodge. Times staff writer Christopher Reynolds wrote that the park’s 1,750-acre Torrey Pines reserve attracts about 4 million visitors each year (about the same number as visit Yosemite National Park). Torrey Pines State Beach will remain open through the closure. If you’d hoped to visit this particular park in the fall, consider instead one of 13 places in California that Reynolds recently wrote are ideal to check out in autumn. Warning: As I read the piece, I felt the immediate urge to book campsites at several spots around our state! I am so ready for cozy season.

For more insider tips on Southern California’s beaches, trails and parks, check out past editions of The Wild. And to view this newsletter in your browser, click here.

Olympic bronze medallist Alice Kinsella says it is “completely surreal” to have been named in the Great Britain team for the Artistic Gymnastics World Championships just a year after giving birth.

She has been selected to compete in Rotterdam between 17-25 October alongside world medallists Abigail Martin, Ruby Evans, Becky Downie and Alia Leat.

The 25-year-old, a two-time European champion, became the first British artistic gymnast to resume competition after giving birth when she finished fourth in the beam at the British Championships in March.

“I can’t put into words with how I’m feeling right now, my goal was always to be ready to compete properly next year and to now say I’m going to the World Championships just feels completely surreal,” said Kinsella, who also got married over the summer.

“I feel so incredibly proud of this achievement. To think I’m going to the World Championships just over a year postpartum is insane.

“It’s been a tough year but I don’t regret my decision in coming back to elite sport at all, it was always the goal of mine and there was nothing stopping me from reaching that goal.

“I can’t wait to tell this story to Parker when he’s all grown up, it’s a big one to tell!”

Double world champion Jake Jarman will participate in the men’s event in the Netherlands along with Olympic bronze medallist Harry Hepworth.

Scotland’s Reuben Ward, three-time world medal winner Joe Fraser and double world medallist Courtney Tulloch will also feature for Britain.

Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy denounces ‘horrific crime’ after 31-year-old attacks clergy and worshippers in border town.

One person was killed and four others injured when a man armed with a knife attacked clergy and worshippers at a Catholic monastery in southern Poland.

Police said the 31-year-old attacker, a Ukrainian national, went on a stabbing spree at the 17th-century Benedictine abbey in Jaroslaw, some 30km (19 miles) from the border with Ukraine, on Thursday morning.

The suspect, who had entered Poland from Germany earlier in the day, reportedly grabbed a knife from the abbey’s kitchen and attacked four men and one woman, including a priest in a confessional, police said.

“Three of the victims are clergy members and two are laypeople; one person has died,” said prosecutor Bozena Harasz-Wołoszyn. Two others were in “critical, life-threatening condition”.

Polish media identified the man who died as a priest. Police did not immediately confirm the identity of the deceased.

Prosecutors said the attacker was headed for a nearby border crossing back into Ukraine but instead went to the abbey.

The motive remains unclear, and doctors will assess whether he was under the influence of alcohol, Harasz-Wołoszyn said.

Leaders respond

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the “murderer” would be “punished with the full severity of Polish law”.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the attack a “horrific crime”.

“The perpetrator of this evil must bear full responsibility in accordance with the law … We are shaken by this evil. Justice must be done.”

The mayor of Jaroslaw, Marcin Nazarewicz, declared a period of mourning until the end of the week.

Stabbings, particularly at religious sites, are extremely rare in Poland, one of Europe’s most Catholic countries.

The red carpet was rolled out, and a trade truce was extended. Yet, beneath the pomp and pageantry of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit with US leader Donald Trump on Thursday, Washington and Beijing remain locked in a much deeper strategic rivalry.

Xi arrived in Washington, DC on Wednesday evening for talks on Thursday, and Trump was there to meet him personally on the tarmac.

The meeting was the first state visit by a Chinese leader to the US in 11 years. But it is also the third time in less than a year that the two men have met face to face, as the two powers remain uneasily gridlocked in competition over AI, rare-earth metals, the question of Taiwan, and the Iran war.

Overhanging it all is the paused, but simmering, trade war between their two nations.

Almost as soon as Trump began his second term in the White House in January 2025, up went tariffs on Chinese goods as he accused China of facilitating the flow of fentanyl, a deadly drug, to the US. Beijing responded with its own levies, then restricted exports of valuable rare-earth metals which are crucial for the development and manufacture of everything high-tech, from smartphones to fighter jets. At one point, tariffs were heading towards 150 percent before being paused to allow time for talks.

Finally, the two leaders called a truce on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea on October 30, and they met once more, in May, when Trump travelled to Beijing.

As Xi landed in Washington on Wednesday this week, the Trump administration announced that the two countries had agreed to extend an October 2025 truce which had offered some respite from the punishing tariffs, produced an agreement from China to buy more soyabeans from the US and delayed the ban on rare-earth exports from China until January 10. The prospect of a much-longed-for trade deal appeared to be in the air when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News he had met Chinese ‌Vice Premier He Lifeng before Xi’s visit to “see if we could ⁠do a bigger deal as opposed to just a series ⁠of smaller things”.

But analysts have, for the most part, shot down such hopes. Beyond tariffs, they say, the simmering conflict between the two powers now encompasses new US sanctions on buyers of Russian oil – namely China – and sweeping investment and research restrictions, never mind the intensifying race for dominance in artificial intelligence.

“The two-month extension isn’t a bridge to a grand bargain – it’s a temporary sandbag holding back a structural flood,” Beijing-based Einar Tangen, a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation, told Al Jazeera.

Theatrics or continued thaw in tensions?

In fact, the truce is little more than “transactional theatre” – an attempt at good optics before the upcoming US midterm elections – Tangen said.

Trump’s deeply unpopular war on Iran has already inflicted severe damage to his chances in that vote. Democrats are leading in the polls amid concerns about the rising cost of energy, triggered by the war which the US started. Trump ultimately needs wins on other issues.

The current truce with China serves a purpose, therefore, but is fragile enough to be undone the moment political utility shifts for Trump, Tangen said.

“Success in January won’t be measured by what is solved, but by whether the knot is left tight enough to hold, but not kill,” said Tangen.

Phillippe Le Corre, professor of international relations and Asian studies at France’s ESSEC Business School, said the length of the truce extension indicates clearly that a more permanent deal remains out of grasp.

“The extensions are getting shorter and shorter, which means they haven’t found a common ground on many issues,” Le Corre told Al Jazeera.

“The two-month extension is a terrible outcome for the US. Nothing is resolved, and many Damocles’ swords are still hanging over Washington’s head,” he added.

Trump’s entire China policy, Le Corre argued, is in fact short-sighted. “That is bringing the world a lot of uncertainty,” he said.

Some analysts are more hopeful, but not much. Sun Chenghao, a fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, described the extension of the trade truce as a “useful interim step”. It shows that both sides want to preserve the recent easing of tensions, which is meaningful progress, he said.

“From China’s perspective, a sustainable agreement needs reciprocal benefits and greater policy predictability,” Sun told Al Jazeera. “Additional purchases cannot indefinitely compensate for uncertainty over tariffs, technology restrictions and market access.”

The extension’s value, however, will depend on whether it produces “concrete commitments” from Beijing and Washington, Sun added.

A game of ‘economic chicken’

There is motivation to get a deal done, analysts say. Any escalation in the US-China trade war will be costly for both sides.

But there is some way to go. A Congressional Research Service report in July 2026 noted that Chinese goods exported to the US still face tariffs of 36.5 percent, while US goods entering China are taxed at 31 percent.

Any higher, and they will raise import and manufacturing costs in the US, squeeze margins and increase pressure on consumer prices, said Sun. They would also hurt US farmers and industrial exporters, he added, just as the US faces pressure from the rising costs of its war on Iran, which have pushed it into a record national debt of $40 trillion two years earlier than expected.

“Washington is playing a high-stakes game of economic chicken with a $40 trillion debt load, an inflationary sword of Damocles, zero fiscal cushion to absorb a truce collapse and a dependence [on] Chinese industrial and manufacturing inputs,” Tangen said.

US consumers and the economy in general will find it tough to survive yet another inflationary shock from renewed tariffs “at a time when the federal budget already operates like a high-wire Ponzi scheme”.

Then there is the AI race, which no one can afford to lose. According to Jon Bateman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a partial “decoupling” of US and Chinese technology ecosystems is under way. US policymakers have pushed to become less dependent on Chinese tech and “to secure America’s technological future in the context of a rising China”, Bateman writes.

But that will not help if there is a collapse in valuations of companies in the AI sector, which currently drive global stock markets. An AI valuation collapse, Tangen warned, “could trigger a financial tsunami that makes 2008 look tame – making technological decoupling meaningless as the world is plunged into a depression”.

Despite the trade war and Trump’s tariffs, China’s trade with other countries has risen sharply, with the country registering a $1.2 trillion global trade surplus last year. But an escalation of the trade war with the US would nevertheless spell increased pressure on export orders, employment in exposed industries and business confidence, said Sun.

Beijing does hold one crucial ace card – it is sitting on 60 percent of the world’s known deposits of rare-earth minerals, said Le Corre. It processes 90 percent of them, too. These are the metals that all countries need supplies of for semiconductors, technological components and the manufacture of weapons, to name but a few. Last year, China began to make use of that leverage by restricting exports of five of the 12 rare-earth metals it mines in April. Then, in October, it prepared to restrict seven more – until the trade truce happened. Plans for the export restrictions are not shelved, however, merely on hold.

“[China] understood this over the past year and they are certainly not going to give up on this,” said Le Corre.

“Washington is hostile, but it is hooked,” Tangen said. “You cannot threaten China with secondary sanctions on energy while desperately needing its rare-earths to fuel your military-industrial base.”

A drawn-out path to durability

The path to a lasting US-China trade deal will be long and rocky. First, any new tariff reductions will need more coverage and duration, said Sun.

For a deal to last, it would also require “more predictable licensing and actual deliveries of rare earths and critical minerals; restraint in expanding technology restrictions; and market access reflected in regulatory approvals and completed transactions”, he said.

A durable agreement also needs regular consultations and a process for resolving complaints. If all this can be hammered out then, just maybe, there might be a chance, Sun said.

Tangen and Le Corre were less optimistic, however. “The US view of China as an existential threat has to change before there can be solutions,” said Tangen.

Le Corre, meanwhile, said that while China is a long-term planner, “durable is a word that can hardly be associated with Trump.”

The existing trade truce also risks breaking down if there are new unilateral tariffs, broader technology or mineral restrictions, or disputes over whether commitments have been fulfilled, said Sun.

Tensions over Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, but for which the US approved an $11.1bn arms sale in December last year, could also trigger a breakdown in trade relations, the analysts said.

“Taiwan remains the ultimate low-probability, catastrophic-impact tail risk – where a single round of arms sales can snap a multibillion-dollar trade truce in an instant,” Tangen noted.