A delegation from Kyiv was in Washington this week to work out the details of what could be a huge deal to sell the U.S. tens of millions of drones. After nearly four years of brutal all-out war with Russia, Ukraine is a world leader in some types of uncrewed weapons technology, and there is increasing demand for these systems.
The potential deal has the support of both U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Ukrainian military officials said they presented U.S. counterparts with the latest developments in their drone tech as well as proposals for “specific models, their effectiveness and conditions of use,” according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.
The MoD did not provide details about exactly what kinds of systems were discussed. We’ve reached out to the Pentagon and Ukrainian officials for more information.
“The American team noted Ukraine’s expertise in developing the drone industry – the production of not only UAVs, but also sea drones and ground robotic complexes,” the MoD explained. “The negotiations of the technical teams became a preparatory stage for the signing of the Drone Deal agreement,” previously announced by Zelensky.
Ukraine is “working on the issue of exports – controlled exports of our weapons, some types that we have in surplus, which can really give Ukraine additional finances for the production of scarce items that are so needed on the front now, and those that have shown themselves best in strikes deep into Russian territory,” Zelensky said in his evening message on Wednesday. “There are already agreements on four export platforms: the United States of America, Europe, the Middle East, and also Africa. We will prepare the appropriate agreements.”
Zelensky had previously said Kyiv had proposed a five-year, $50 billion framework “that would involve producing up to 10 million drones annually, with the program not expected to take effect until the war with Russia ends,” the Kyiv Post noted. It is unclear if the drone deal is part of an exchange for weapons from the U.S. or another type of compensation deal.
We have reached out to the White House for comment.
The U.S. military is already testing out Ukrainian long-range attack drones that Kyiv has used to great effect in attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure. You can see one of those attacks in the video below.
As we have frequently reported, Ukraine has developed weapons like Baba Yaga bomber drones, many types of first-person view (FPV) drones, Magura uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) with a wide range of capabilities and several models of ground drones. Just as importantly, Ukraine has also developed the tactics and techniques to use these weapons in an evolving changing battlespace. This includes incorporating emerging artificial intelligence capabilities into some of its drone systems.
You can see a Magura V7 USV, armed with a pair of AIM-9 Sidewinder infrared-guided air-to-air missiles, shoot down a Russian Su-30 Flanker fighter flying over the Black Sea in the following video.
Some of this could be of great value to the U.S., which makes more exquisite, complex and expensive drones, but in numbers that pale in comparison to what Ukraine produces. America is very far behind in its development and use of some drones types at scale and this deal could help change that. However, it also benefits Kyiv in several ways, a top Ukrainian defense official told us.
“I truly believe we can support this, because it is a win-win for both nations,” Andriy Hyrtseniuk, the new head of Ukraine’s Brave1 defense tech incubator, told The War Zone in an exclusive interview in August. “This is a very good deal that needs to be concluded with the best conditions for both sides.”
Hyrtsenuik said not only does he have confidence that Ukraine has the capacity to supply the U.S. with drones, but such a deal would have major benefits for Kyiv beyond a massive infusion of funds.
“Joint ventures between the companies and teams from both parties will allow us to create even more effective and better solutions,” he noted.
The parameters of this deal are being worked out as Trump has seemingly changed his stance toward Russia after failing to secure a pathway to peace, moving strongly in favor of Ukraine’s point of view. Following his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska last month, Trump seemed far more amenable to Moscow’s point of view. However, the American leader’s messaging appears to be moving strongly in favor of Kyiv, calling Russia a “paper tiger.”
As we noted last week, Trump’s change of heart could result in massive policy shifts. Yesterday, reports emerged indicating the U.S. has agreed to provide Ukraine with targeting intelligence for the aforementioned long-range strikes against Russian energy infrastructure. These attacks are depriving Russia of critical resources to fight Ukraine and raise revenue. You can read more about that in the story we published today here.
In addition to talking about the drone deal, Ukrainian officials also discussed the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative. Created by the U.S. and NATO in August, PURL sells U.S. weaponry to NATO, which then provides it to Ukraine.
“Six NATO member states have already funded four defense support packages for Ukraine totaling more than $2 billion,” under PURL, Zelensky’s office said.
Deliveries of the first two packages began in mid-September. In addition, the United States has already finalized with Canada and Germany the composition of the third and fourth packages.
“The initiative is working, providing very active assistance – it is precisely the mechanism that allows us to purchase American weapons with funding from our NATO partners,” Zelensky said. “These include items such as missiles for Patriots and missiles for HIMARS.”
It will take several months for the drone deal to be finalized, if it comes together at all. Given that it all depends on the war ending, it may be years to kick off, even if a deal is worked out.
Regardless of whether this sees the light of day, the drone deal being discussed is a major sign of how far ahead Ukraine is from the rest of the world when it comes to uncrewed weapons. It also highlights how the U.S. has a long way to go to ramp up its production of drones, something we have discussed at length. Leveraging Ukrainian production and expertise, as well as battle-tested tactics and systems, could give the U.S. a jump start on certain drone capabilities, especially on the lower-end of the capability spectrum.
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