It’s two weeks until Micron (MU 10.66%) stock reports its earnings for fiscal Q4 2025, but Citigroup isn’t waiting around for the numbers to upgrade this stock. This morning, Citi analyst Christopher Danely raised his price target on the memory maker to $175 a share, and reiterated his “buy” rating.

Micron stock jumped 8.9% through 11:20 a.m. ET in response.

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What Citi says about Micron stock

Most analysts predict Micron will report $2.85 per share when its news comes out Sept. 23, and Citi’s Danely agrees the company will be “in line” with that estimate. What has Danely feeling really optimistic about Micron, though, is the potential for management to give strong guidance on top of its Q4 earnings.

DRAM and NAND sales and prices could both be very good heading into fiscal 2026, argues the analyst, as “the continued memory upturn is being driven by limited production and better-than-expected demand, particularly from the data center end market.” (Translation: Demand for artificial intelligence capacity is driving Micron’s business.)

Danely predicts that by 2029, fully 34% of all NAND memory chips will be used for AI applications, adding $29 billion worth of NAND sales globally.

Is Micron stock a buy?

Danely may be right. Most analysts following Micron stock predict the company could earn $10 a share in 2029. What worries me, though, is that even if they’re right, it means Micron stock already costs more than 15x earnings that it might (or might not) earn four years from now.

Investors are giving Micron credit for earnings it hasn’t actually earned yet. Meanwhile, Micron’s free cash flow is less than one-third of reported income, and the stock costs 82x FCF already today. That’s more than I want to pay, and Micron remains a sell for me.