Indonesia, as the world’s largest archipelagic state, holds a highly strategic geographic position, located between two continents and two oceans. This location makes Indonesia a crucial maritime hub in the Indo-Pacific region. In the era of Prabowo Subianto’s administration that began in 2024, Indonesia’s foreign policy has garnered significant attention, given the increasingly complex and multipolar global dynamics. This article aims to analyze how Indonesia, under Prabowo’s leadership, positions itself between its regional commitment to ASEAN and engagement with new global power alignments such as the Indo-Pacific.
1. Indonesia’s Geopolitical Context in the New Global Era
The current global order is undergoing a significant transformation. Tensions between the United States and China are one of the primary drivers of this shift. Amid global geopolitical polarization, the Indo-Pacific region has received heightened attention from various global actors. Indonesia, as a major democracy in Southeast Asia and a G20 member, holds a unique position.
In this context, Indonesia is expected to play a more active role in maintaining regional stability. The Prabowo administration faces significant challenges in upholding the principles of a free and active foreign policy while also safeguarding national interests closely tied to economic, defense, and domestic stability. Therefore, Indonesia’s geopolitical strategy today is shaped not only by bilateral relations but also by its ability to engage in multilateral frameworks and international forums.
2. Indonesia’s Role in ASEAN during the Prabowo Era
ASEAN remains a central pillar of Indonesia’s foreign policy. As a founding and leading member of ASEAN, Indonesia bears both a moral and political responsibility to maintain the cohesion of this regional organization. In the Prabowo era, Indonesia’s approach to ASEAN appears pragmatic yet still committed to regional collective values.
The Prabowo administration has demonstrated its commitment to ASEAN by participating in high-level meetings and voicing regional concerns, such as the peaceful resolution of the Myanmar crisis and the development of a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. However, with increasing external pressures from powers like the United States and China influencing ASEAN dynamics, Indonesia must enhance its regional diplomatic capacity to keep ASEAN relevant and unified.
Another challenge within ASEAN is the growing divergence of interests among member states. Prabowo faces the task of maintaining Indonesia’s leadership in ASEAN without appearing dominant. A collective diplomatic approach and strengthened intra-ASEAN cooperation, especially in defense and food security, are key to preserving regional solidarity.
3. Emerging Global Powers and the Challenge of Neutrality
With the growing influence of emerging global powers such as China, Russia, and India, as well as the rise of cooperation blocs like BRICS, Indonesia faces a foreign policy dilemma. On one hand, Indonesia maintains strong economic ties with China, particularly in infrastructure and trade. On the other hand, Indonesia also maintains robust relations with Western countries, including the United States and the European Union, especially on issues of democracy, human rights, and regional security.
Prabowo, with his military background and experience in defense, is expected to balance these global relationships effectively. One of Prabowo’s strengths lies in his ability to establish strategic communication with various international actors. Indonesia’s active neutrality must be manifested through flexible diplomacy that is not merely symbolic but also substantive in safeguarding national interests.
Amid competition among major powers, Indonesia can play the role of a mediator or ‘bridge builder’ that facilitates dialogue and cooperation across blocs. This capability would strengthen Indonesia’s position as a respected middle power on the global stage.
4. Indonesia’s Strategic Opportunities
Indonesia has numerous strategic opportunities to seize in the new global era. As a maritime nation, Indonesia possesses vast potential in maritime security, international trade, and global logistics. The Prabowo administration must strengthen maritime infrastructure, enhance naval military capacity, and develop strategic port areas as part of its foreign policy agenda.
Initiatives such as the “Global Maritime Fulcrum” can be revived with a more pragmatic and realistic approach, focusing on improving regional connectivity and engaging in economic forums like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Additionally, Indonesia has the opportunity to expand its economic diplomacy. The Prabowo administration can synergize foreign policy with trade policy to attract foreign investment and expand export markets. In the defense sector, Indonesia can also strengthen cooperation with strategic partners for military technology development and increased domestic production capacity.
Conclusion
The Prabowo Subianto administration faces considerable challenges in navigating an increasingly complex global geopolitical map. Amid ongoing shifts in global power dynamics, Indonesia must maintain a balance between its involvement in emerging global power structures and its commitment to ASEAN. Flexible, strategic, and interest-based diplomacy is essential to the success of Indonesia’s foreign policy.
As the largest democracy in Southeast Asia and an emerging economy, Indonesia holds significant potential to play a more prominent role in the global order. Prabowo must ensure that every foreign policy decision aligns with the nation’s long-term interests, preserves regional stability, and enhances Indonesia’s position as a strategic actor in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.