June 13 (UPI) — Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is in the final stage of a historic trial before Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court over his alleged role in an attempted coup following his 2022 election loss.
The trial, now in its final phase of evidence collection, will determine Bolsonaro’s legal fate and could end his political aspirations to reclaim the presidency.
Since mid-May, Bolsonaro and several former aides have faced legal proceedings unprecedented in Brazil’s recent history. On Tuesday, Bolsonaro appeared in court to respond to the charges.
Prosecutors accuse Bolsonaro of plotting to overturn the 2022 election results to stay in power. He faces charges of rebellion and attempting a coup. Local news media report he could face up to 40 years in prison if convicted on all counts.
During the hearing, Bolsonaro apologized to Justice Alexandre de Moraes and other members of the court for previously alleging election fraud, admitting he had no evidence. At one point, Bolsonaro even asked De Moraes if he would consider being his running mate in 2026 — the justice replied, “I reject the offer.”
Bolsonaro admitted discussing with advisers and military leaders the possibility of finding a “legal mechanism” to overturn Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s election victory, but insisted, “There was never a possibility of a coup in my government.”
That statement, though defiant, could alienate parts of Bolsonaro’s base who continue to defend the Jan. 8, 2023, rioters, said Bruno Pazos Barboz, a professor at the Social Observatory of Rio.
On that day, thousands of radical Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings in Brasília — just one week after Lula took office — vandalizing property and stealing documents and official government symbols.
“This trial, which has drawn both national and international attention, is not only about individual accountability,” Pazos said. “It’s also a test of the strength of Brazil’s democratic institutions. That’s why what’s happening — and how it ends — is so important.”
Bolsonaro is already barred from holding public office until 2030 by the Superior Electoral Court, due to his baseless attacks on the country’s electronic voting system. A conviction in the current case could result in prison time and further extend that ban, effectively ending his short-term presidential ambitions.
Despite the charges, some of his supporters and political analysts have not ruled out his return.
A Genial/Quaest poll conducted between May and June 2025 found that 65% of Brazilians believe Bolsonaro should drop out of the 2026 presidential race and allow another right-wing candidate to take his place, The Rio Times reported — signaling broad rejection beyond his core base of supporters.
Still, “Bolsonarismo” remains active, said Pazos Barboz. The movement holds significant influence in Congress and maintains a loyal base that continues to mobilize periodically. Its rhetoric often centers on themes of “victimization” and claims of “political persecution.”
Two additional factors continue to sustain Bolsonarismo. One is the growth of Brazil’s Protestant evangelical population, a demographic traditionally aligned with Bolsonaro and estimated at about 50 million people. The other is the lack of a unifying leader capable of bringing together the country’s right-wing parties — a gap that could reshape the 2026 electoral landscape.
If convicted, Bolsonaro could appeal to the same court and possibly to the full bench. The entire legal process — including trial and appeals — could extend into late 2025 or early 2026.