The U.S. Air Force’s top officer in the Pacific says a key takeaway from China’s huge military parade tomorrow will be that “we are not deterred.” Several new Chinese air combat drones and air and missile defense systems, as well as a host of other advanced capabilities, will be showcased at the event in Beijing, as TWZ has been reporting on already.

Air Force Gen. Kevin Schneider, head of Pacific Air Forces (PACAF), offered his own strategic signaling on the forthcoming Chinese parade during a virtual talk hosted today by the Air & Space Forces Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Schneider was responding to a direct question from Aviation Week‘s Steve Trimble, who specifically highlighted the new air combat drones, as well as the HQ-29 high-end anti-ballistic missile system, that are among the Chinese systems set to make their official public debut tomorrow.

“Nations like China, and North Korea, and Russia, and others do these kind of events. There’s certainly a big focus on messaging,” Schneider said. “You know, messaging is certainly a factor there, but I think the takeaway for this is we are not deterred.”

“We will continue to stay ahead of the challenges. We will continue to find ways to advance our capabilities and to deal with potential adversary systems as they are developed and fielded,” he continued. “I maintain a high degree of optimism that we have been successful in doing that, and we will continue to be successful in finding ways to mitigate threats by others as they are developed, and advancing our own capabilities, to be able to break down doors, to get into anti-access area/denial areas, and to be able to operate in weapons engagement zones, something that we have done as a nation since day one.”

Earlier in the talk, Schneider had also offered a basic rubric for understanding deterrence, which he said was imparted to him by a former head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM).

“He described deterrence as a bit of a mathematical equation. It was capability times willingness times messaging. And his point was, if any of those factors are zero, then deterrence is zero. It wasn’t an addition problem. It was a multiplication problem.”

“Within that, capability is the outsized factor in deterrence,” he added. “So, finding ways that we can continue to improve our positions, our capabilities, and to be able to adapt ahead of what a potential adversary is doing, is by far the most important of those factors.”

Schneider specifically name-checked the B-21 Raider stealth bomber and the F-47 sixth-generation fighter as examples of how the Air Force is advancing its capabilities. New Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drones are another centerpiece of the Air Force’s future plans, including in partnership with future crewed aircraft like the F-47 and B-21.

“By and large, it’s China that occupies the main focus of our attention,” including the “growing size and capability of the People’s Liberation Army [PLA],” Schneider acknowledged. He also highlighted “the aggressive behaviors that go along with that, and that plays out in the West Philippine Sea, against the Philippines, on an almost daily basis, as well as … in and around Taiwan, with the multi-domain pressure activities that take place with regularity.”

The remarks from the current PACAF commander are in line with other comments in recent years from senior Air Force officers about the capabilities of PLA, especially its growing fleet of J-20 stealth fighters.

“It’s [the J-20] not anything to lose a lot of sleep over,” Air Force Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, then head of PACAF, told members of the media, including TWZ, on the sidelines of the Air & Space Force Association’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference back in 2022. “Certainly, we’re watching them closely and seeing how they felt and how they operate them.”

“Well, I’m like Gen. Wilsbach,” now-retired Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown, then Air Force Chief of Staff, had said while speaking separately at the same event. “[The J-20 is] not something to lose a lot of sleep over, but I’m gonna pay attention to it.”

“I don’t think that it’s a dominating aircraft at this point, compared to what we have [in terms of stealthy F-22 Raptors and F-35 Lightnings],” Wilsbach said at the 2023 Air, Space & Cyber Conference. “They’ve done some good copying… pretty much most of the technology from that airplane [the J-20] was stolen from the U.S.”

Wilsbach was most recently head of Air Combat Command (ACC) and had been expected to retire soon, but is now reportedly among the contenders to succeed Gen. David Allvin as Air Force Chief of Staff.

All this being said, China has been pushing ahead with its own slew of new and advanced airpower developments in recent years. This is underscored by the air combat drones, or mockups thereof, that will be officially shown for the first time at the parade tomorrow.

Two of the new Chinese air combat drones, seen in the picture below, notably reflect the same kind of dichotomy, broadly speaking, in terms of configuration and performance, that has been seen in the pair of designs currently being developed for the U.S. Air Force CCA program.

The GJ-11 Sharp Sword stealthy flying-wing uncrewed combat air vehicle (UCAV), or further iterations of that design, including ones intended for naval operations from carriers and big deck amphibious ships, will also be on display at the event. The GJ-11 represents a capability set that the Chinese are investing in heavily, but that the U.S. military continues to eschew completely, at least publicly. This is despite the United States being a leader in that arena for decades, as you can read more about in this seminal TWZ feature.

All of this reflects China’s ever-more prominent position in the uncrewed aviation space. This was further punctuated this year by the emergence of what appears to be a very large, high-altitude, long-endurance, stealthy flying wing-type drone, which TWZ was first to report on and that may now be flying.

Crewed military aviation developments have also continued apace in China. This includes the J-36 and J-XDS (also referred to as the J-50) next-generation crew combat jets that broke cover last December, followed shortly thereafter by a new jet-powered airborne early warning and control aircraft based on the Y-20 airlifter. Just last month, another new Chinese stealth tactical jet design, which may or may not be piloted, emerged. A two-seat variant of the J-20, which would be well suited to the airborne drone controller role, and the J-35, a next-generation carrier-based fighter, also look poised to enter service.

As noted earlier, the parade in Beijing tomorrow will serve as a spotlight for a host of other advanced PLA capabilities, including new ballistic and cruise missiles, air and missile defense systems, armored vehicles, and uncrewed maritime platforms. Many of these systems factor directly into the Chinese anti-access and aerial denial ‘bubbles’ that Gen. Schneider mentioned as being among the challenges the Air Force will need to stay ahead of in order to succeed in any future high-end fight in the Pacific. This is also part of the expanding and evolving threat ecosystem facing U.S. airbases and other facilities across the region.

“I think there’s a couple of takeaways for us and things that we continue to take a look at [when it comes to base defense and resilience],” Schneider also said during today’s talk. “One is detection and sensing, our ability to recognize that our attacks are inbound, or even before they’re inbound, how an enemy or a potential enemy is starting to posture their forces. So indication and warning, and those capabilities that give us indication and warnings.”

Then there is “our ability to flush, our ability to get aircraft into the air quickly, to put fuel in aircraft, to put munitions on aircraft,” he continued. “As an outcome of that, [there is] our ability to repair runways, and what it is that we need for rapid airfield damage repair capability, whether it’s pre-staging equipment or new and innovative ways of putting fixes and taking holes and turning them into usable surfaces again.”

The PACAF commander also highlighted the ability to rapidly deploy forces, something the Air Force is focused heavily on as part of its Agile Combat Employment (ACE) concepts of operations, as well as active air and missile defenses provided by other services. Only a brief mention was given to talk of more physical hardening of facilities against attacks, which remains a source of very heated debate within the Air Force and the rest of the U.S. military, as you can read more about here.

Altogether, Gen. Schneider’s comments today are certainly meant to underscore confidence, at least publicly, that the U.S. Air Force and the rest of the U.S. military remain ahead of the PLA on the capability curve. At the same time, despite the continued downplaying by American officials, there are clear signs of growing concern about more and more advanced Chinese military developments.

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