France has been mired in political instability since President Emmanuel Macron’s snap parliamentary elections in 2024 left the National Assembly fragmented. His ruling alliance lost ground while the far-right National Rally gained dominance. The weakened government faces growing fiscal pressures, with France’s debt now at 113.9% of GDP and the deficit almost double the EU’s 3% limit. Prime Minister François Bayrou Macron’s fourth PM since 2022 introduced tough austerity measures, triggering backlash.

What Happened:

According to Reuters (Sept 5), Bayrou has called a confidence vote for September 8 on his fiscal strategy, including €44 billion in cuts. Opposition parties have united against him, making his defeat highly likely. If he loses, Bayrou will be required to resign.

Why It Matters:

The crisis threatens the eurozone’s second-largest economy at a time of financial fragility. Political paralysis may undermine investor confidence, complicate debt management, and risk further credit rating downgrades. Regionally, instability in Paris weakens EU leadership at a critical juncture for European security and economic stability.

Stakeholder Reactions:

Opposition parties branded Bayrou’s confidence vote “political suicide” and pledged to remove him.

Macron has ruled out fresh elections but faces pressure from the far-right and left to dissolve parliament.

Government insiders indicated possible successors include Finance Minister Eric Lombard and former Socialist PM Bernard Cazeneuve.

Grassroots movements such as Bloquons Tout are planning nationwide protests, reflecting deepening social unrest.

What’s Next:

    Sept 8: Assembly vote outcome expected by 1800 GMT.

    Sept 10: Major protests expected nationwide.

    Sept 12:Fitch reviews France’s credit rating a downgrade looms.

    Sept 18: Trade unions plan strikes and demonstrations.

If Bayrou falls, Macron must swiftly appoint a new PM to stabilize governance,    potentially from the centre-left or a technocratic figure.