Background

Norway heads to the polls on September 7-8, 2025, in a closely fought general election that could reshape both domestic economic policy, as well as the wider European energy landscape. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store’s Labour Party, in power since 2021, seeks to extend its rule after eight years of Conservative-led governments. Labour governs as a minority with backing from both the Socialist Left and Centre Party.

What Happened?

The election places the centre-left bloc led by the Labour Party against the centre right, dominated by the populist Progress Party and Conservatives.

Inequality and taxation top the list of Nordic voter concerns, followed by cost of living pressures, job security, and food price inflation (5.9% over the past calendar year).

Labour promises stable taxes, though allies push for higher rates on the wealthy; Conservatives and Progress advocate deep tax cuts across all income levels.

The campaign has also been shaped by debates surrounding Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund, oil and gas exploration, and power exports to Europe.

Why It Matters:

Norway is Europe’s leading gas supplier, replacing Russia after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The election outcome could determine whether new oil and gas fields are opened or restricted, with consequences for both domestic revenues and Europe’s energy security. In addition, political control over the sovereign wealth fund could reshape debates about Nordic investments, including calls from the Socialist Left to divest from companies with links to Israel’s actions in Gaza. Energy policy and fiscal direction will not only shape Norway’s future but also ripple across the European Union, where stability of gas flows and power exports are closely monitored and viewed as a key commodity.

Stakeholder Reactions:

Socialist Left Party: Urgently demands divestments tied to Israel’s war in Gaza as a condition for backing the Labour Party in the next government if they were to emerge victorious.

Labour Party: Rejected the demand but may face pressure to revisit it post-election depending on both the landscape of the Gaza conflict and overall party productivity in regards to addressing the concerns of the everyday Nordic citizen.

Smaller Parties (Liberals, Greens): Deeply divided on oil exploration, some pushing for expansion with controls to ensure domestic revenue inflows, others calling for tighter restrictions or eventual phase-outs to become a greener economy.

EU observers: Undoubtedly watching closely as Norway debates limiting electricity exports, which would breach single market rules established by the Union.

What’s Next/

Election days: September 7-8, with polls closing September 8th at 1900 GMT.

Results: Early exit polls expected the same evening; final outcome could possibly take until September 9th to be announced.

Likely Scenarios: A continued Labour-led minority government, or a centre-right coalition led by Conservatives or Progress Party.

Wider Implications: Coalition negotiations will decide Norway’s position on tax policy, sovereign wealth fund investments, oil and gas exploration, and electricity exports, with consequences for both domestic voters and European partners.

With information from Reuters