Mon. May 20th, 2024
Occasional Digest - a story for you

 Good morning, I hope you’ve enjoyed another short work week — if you got Easter Monday off.

Federal Reserve officials have been busy giving speeches in the US — perhaps a foretaste of what might be coming in Australia when, and if, the new monetary policy board at the RBA is implemented.

Minneapolis Fed Bank president Neel Kashkari upset markets by saying that while he thought two rate cuts were likely to be needed this year, if inflation continues stalling then no rate cuts may be forthcoming in 2024.

Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin was a little more circumspect, simply saying the Fed has “time for the clouds to clear” before cutting rates.

None of this suggests the bank is in a hurry to move.

US stocks had gained earlier in the session because of a rise in jobless claims — bad news being good news because it brings forward the prospect of rate cuts.

But, after the Fed officials’ comments, the main Wall Street indices sank, with the S&P 500 down 1.2% heading towards the close and the Nasdaq off a touch more.

“While everybody would like lower interest rates, it’s a want, not a need,” Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and adviser for Wealthspire Advisors, told Reuters.

“In other words, we’re kind of fine where we are.”

It echoes comments reported on this blog yesterday from Magellan portfolio manager Nikki Thomas, who said the most likely reason rates won’t fall soon is that the economy is too strong, which is also good for stock prices.

It seems many others on the market disagree with them. Perhaps they’ve heard of something called stagflation, another ghost from the 1970s.

As for the local market, it looks set to follow wherever Wall Street treads, with the ASX futures down 0.8%.

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