“When You See One Cockroach, There’s Probably More.” Is JPMorgan Chase’s Recent Hit a Warning to Other Major Banks?

Before market open this morning, JPMorgan Chase (JPM -1.49%) published results for the third quarter. Performance for the period actually came in significantly better than the market had anticipated — with earnings per share of $5.07 on sales of $47.12 billion beating the average analyst estimate’s call for per-share earnings of $4.84 on sales of $45.4 billion.

On the other hand, the strong quarter also arrived with some commentary from CEO Jamie Dimon and other executives highlighting concerns for the financials sector and broader U.S. economy. Has JPMorgan just raised major warning flags that could signal powerful headwinds for other major banks?

Image source: Getty Images.

Jamie Dimon’s “cockroach” comments raise eyebrows

Speaking on losses his company experienced connected to its position in automotive credit supplier Tricolor Holdings, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon acknowledged that the relationship was not the bank’s best moment. Taking it a step further, Dimon said, “When you see one cockroach, there’s probably more.”

Tricolor filed for bankruptcy protection last month, and the development has raised concerns about the broader U.S. consumer credit market. In the third quarter, JPMorgan took a $170 million impairment charge connected to loans it had extended to Tricolor. In JPMorgan’s third-quarter conference call, Dimon suggested that bankruptcies for Tricolor and other companies in the auto industry raised concerns about whether lending standards had become too lax.

Dimon’s comments about seeing cockroaches highlight the risk that issues facing the U.S. consumer credit market may be greater than what is visible on the surface. In other words, Tricolor’s bankruptcy may be the visible cockroach that signals a much larger nest of bugs that could present issues for the credit market and broader economy.

Dimon’s comments about Tricolor and consumer credit trends are also seemingly an acknowledgment that JPMorgan could face similar issues in the not-too-distant future. Perhaps more importantly, his comments raise the concern that other large U.S. banks could soon face similar issues that have impacts on the financials sector and U.S. macroeconomic health.

Between inflation levels that have remained relatively sticky, uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs, and some concerning indicators for U.S. economic growth, there are a lot of pressure points on the table for the broader macroeconomic picture right now. Shifting geopolitical dynamics with China and other rivals and trade partners present additional risk factors.

The U.S. economy is going through some historic shifts at the moment, and there are good reasons to think that some potentially serious fault lines exist in the consumer credit market right now. Dimon’s suggestion that Tricolor’s bankruptcy and other signs of weakness connected to the auto market signal real credit risks appears well founded, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see other major banks dealing with headwinds along those lines in the near future.