overlook

In January 2024, Office 365 quietly reached 400 million paid seats. Microsoft (MSFT 0.26%) products are as integrated into our professional lives as meetings that could’ve been emails, but these “boring” and decades-old tools are the fuel Microsoft is using to compete in the artificial intelligence (AI) race.

As AI progresses and automates away chunks of the professional world as we know it, the legacy suite of Microsoft 365 products shows no signs of slowing down. This ability to quietly and reliably generate revenue is funding Microsoft’s riskier AI bets.

Office products generated $54.9 billion in fiscal year 2024 (the 12 months ended in June 2024). That was 22% of all of Microsoft’s revenue. Microsoft 365 will keep the company on the leaderboard of AI innovators for years to come. This is great news for long-term Microsoft investors.

Image source: Getty Images.

Microsoft’s lagging AI strategy

Microsoft is still playing catch-up when it comes to generative AI. OpenAI leads with more than 200 million weekly active users and set the gold standard with the release of ChatGPT in 2022. Alphabet‘s Google and Meta Platforms both have models nearly equivalent to OpenAI.

Compared to these companies, Microsoft got a late start in deciding on an AI strategy. However, it has since closed the gap significantly by partnering with competitor OpenAI and, as of the end of 2024, was beginning to build models in-house.

Microsoft also purchased billions in Nvidia chips and continues to innovate on its cloud computing platform, Azure, and agentic powerhouse, Copilot. These strategic moves are, thus far, keeping pace with the other major players in the AI industry.

Microsoft requires immense amounts of capital to remain competitive in the AI landscape. Fortunately, its decades-old productivity and business lines are the stable engine propelling Microsoft into its new, automated era.

The Office moat

Normally, when one thinks of a legacy business, it’s of an outdated, shrinking portion of revenue. That is not the case with Microsoft’s Office products. Microsoft 365, including the applications Excel, Word, PowerPoint, Teams, and Outlook, is still growing by double digits year over year.

This indicates these product lines are not only here to stay, but are so universally adopted by businesses and individuals alike that it’ll be nearly impossible to dethrone them anytime soon.

These products are also mostly recession-resistant, as businesses are unlikely to cut them in an economic downturn. Microsoft also switched to a subscription model more than a decade ago, making revenue from these lines of business extraordinarily predictable and dependable.

The significant growth in the legacy products is also great news for the capital-intensive investments Microsoft will need to continue making for the next several years. Microsoft reports that it’s on track to invest approximately $80 billion to build out AI-enabled data centers for training and deploying AI models and applications.

Microsoft’s AI revenue is exploding

In its earnings call on July 30, Microsoft revealed Azure’s income for the first time: a whopping $75 billion, an increase of 34%, according to chairman and CEO Satya Nadella.

The CEO added, “Cloud and AI is the driving force of business transformation across every industry and sector. We’re innovating across the tech stack to help customers adapt and grow in this new era.”

Microsoft’s market cap is approaching $4 trillion, and there seems to be quite a bit of room left for growth, particularly if the company’s big AI bets pay off.

Microsoft remains a top competitor

For investors, Microsoft remains a solid long-term play, largely because of the stable products users have known for years. With a quarterly dividend of $0.91 per share, investors are rewarded on both the value and growth side, though the dividend yield is under 1%. Microsoft’s burgeoning agentic and innovative technologies will continue to produce massive revenue alongside mature, reliable products.

Overall, Microsoft’s total revenue increased 18% from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025. There’s plenty of risk associated with investing in AI technologies, but thanks to Microsoft’s steady lines of business, the downside is far less than that of many competitors.

Apple (AAPL -3.17%) shares dipped slightly on Tuesday as the tech giant unveiled its latest iPhones. The company behind the world’s most popular premium smartphone now has fresh hardware headed to stores later this month. Investors will be watching early demand closely, but one detail from the event deserves special attention: pricing. Apple raised the starting price of the iPhone 17 Pro to $1,099 in the U.S., $100 above last year’s Pro entry point.

Apple’s iPhone business has already regained momentum. In the quarter ending Jun. 28, Apple posted record fiscal third-quarter revenue, with double-digit growth in iPhone and an all-time high in services. Management also highlighted growth across every geographic segment and said the installed base of active devices hit a new high. Those are the right conditions heading into a price-supported product cycle.

Image source: Getty Images.

Recent results point to a healthier iPhone backdrop

Apple‘s fiscal third quarter showed the core engine is running well again. Total revenue rose to $94.0 billion, up 10% year over year, while iPhone revenue climbed 13% to $44.6 billion from $39.3 billion a year ago. Services revenue reached $27.4 billion, also a record for the June quarter. All of this pushed earnings per share for the quarter up 12% year over year. This mix shows iPhone still doing the heavy lifting while services keeps compounding on a larger base.

Apple CEO Tim Cook captured the tone in the company’s fiscal third-quarter release in late July: “Today Apple is proud to report a June quarter revenue record with double-digit growth in iPhone, Mac and services and growth around the world, in every geographic segment.” That comment, paired with an all-time-high installed base noted by the CFO, underscores the company’s momentum as new models arrive later this month.

Apple stock’s valuation reflects high expectations. As of Tuesday’s close, the stock traded around the mid-30s on a trailing price-to-earnings basis and sported a market cap near $3.5 trillion. Premium valuation multiples require sustained growth, so whether the iPhone lineup can support another leg higher matters for returns from here.

A Pro price bump and a new Air could lift iPhone revenue

The most consequential change this fall may be simple: Apple lifted the iPhone 17 Pro’s starting price to $1,099 from $999 for last year’s 16 Pro. Even before any unit growth, that change can nudge average selling prices higher, especially if Pro models continue to draw enthusiasts who want the iPhone models with the best cameras and performance. Apple also doubled the entry storage on 17 Pro to 256GB, which supports the higher entry price while still benefiting revenue recognition.

Additionally, Apple introduced iPhone Air — the thinnest iPhone yet — with a polished titanium frame and new Ceramic Shield 2 front and back that Apple says is more scratch- and crack-resistant than prior models. Priced below the Pro line at $999, Air offers a sleeker and tougher design that should appeal to mainstream upgraders who have waited. Together with iPhone 17, this broadens the ladder for buyers and may support both units and richer configurations. Preorders begin Friday, with availability next week.

These product dynamics line up with the fundamentals Apple reported in late July: iPhone is growing again, services is setting records, and the installed base is larger than ever. A higher Pro entry price, a compelling non-Pro option in Air, and the usual mix of trade-in and carrier promotions could translate into higher iPhone revenue in fiscal 2026, potentially in the double digits, if Apple sustains healthy Pro demand and nudges more mainstream buyers to upgrade. The risks are clear, including price sensitivity at the high end, macro softness in key regions, and intense competition. But Apple’s scale, brand strength, and rapidly growing services business help cushion those pressures.

In short, Apple just made its most popular premium phones more valuable — and more expensive — while adding a new, tougher design at a slightly lower price point than Pro. If that combination drives strong Pro mix and steady upgrades, it can lift average selling prices and total iPhone revenue next year. With services already at record levels and the installed base expanding, that is a reasonable path for the stock to maintain a premium valuation over time, allowing the stock price to grow with earnings growth.