Middle East

Washington, DC – After taking the oath of office for his second term in January, United States President Donald Trump said he would push to “stop all wars” and leave a legacy of a “peacemaker and unifier”.

But six months in, missiles are flying across the Middle East after Israel attacked Iran, risking an all-out regional war that could drag US troops into the conflict.

The Israeli strikes on Iran, which Trump has all but explicitly endorsed, are now testing the president’s promise to be a harbinger of peace.

They are also dividing his base, with many right-wing politicians and commentators stressing that unconditional support for Israel is at odds with the “America First” platform on which Trump was elected.

“There is a very strong sense of betrayal and anger in many parts of the ‘America First’ base because they have truly turned against the idea of the US being involved in or supporting any such wars,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president at the Quincy Institute, a US think tank that promotes diplomacy.

“They have largely turned sceptical of Israel, and they strongly believe that these types of wars are what cause Republican presidencies to become failures — and what causes their broader domestic agenda to be compromised.”

‘Drop Israel’

Several conservatives questioned the Israeli strikes on Friday, warning that the US must not be dragged into a war that does not serve its interests.

Influential conservative commentator Tucker Carlson — seen as a major figure in Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement — said the US should not support the “war-hungry government” of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“If Israel wants to wage this war, it has every right to do so. It is a sovereign country, and it can do as it pleases. But not with America’s backing,” the Tucker Carlson Network morning newsletter read on Friday.

It added that a war with Iran could “fuel the next generation of terrorism” or lead to the killing of thousands of Americans in the name of a foreign agenda.

“It goes without saying that neither of those possibilities would be beneficial for the United States,” the newsletter said. “But there is another option: drop Israel. Let them fight their own wars.”

Republican Senator Rand Paul also cautioned against war with Iran and slammed hawkish neoconservatives in Washington.

“The American people overwhelming[ly] oppose our endless wars, and they voted that way when they voted for Donald Trump in 2024,” Paul wrote in a social media post.

“I urge President Trump to stay the course, keep putting America first, and to not join in any war between other countries.”

Right-wing Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene also sent a message suggesting that she opposes the strikes. She has previously cautioned Trump against attacking Iran based on Israeli assertions that Tehran is about to acquire a nuclear weapon.

“I’m praying for peace. Peace,” she wrote on X. “That’s my official position.”

While many of Israel’s supporters have cited the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran, the government in Tehran has long denied pursuing a nuclear weapon. Trump’s own intelligence chief, Tulsi Gabbard, testified in March that the US “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon”.

Charlie Kirk, a key Republican activist and commentator who is a staunch Israel supporter, also voiced scepticism about engaging in a war with Iran.

“I can tell you right now, our MAGA base does not want a war at all whatsoever,” Kirk said on his podcast. “They do not want US involvement. They do not want the United States to be engaged in this.”

Israel’s attacks

Hours before Israel started bombing Iran on Friday — targeting its military bases, nuclear facilities and residential buildings — Trump said that his administration was committed to diplomacy with Tehran.

“ Look, it’s very simple. Not complicated. Iran can not have a nuclear weapon. Other than that, I want them to be successful. We’ll help them be successful,” Trump said at a news conference on Thursday.

A sixth round of denuclearisation talks between US and Iranian officials was set to be held in Oman on Sunday.

Nevertheless, on Friday, Trump told reporters he had known about Israel’s attacks in advance. He did not indicate he had vetoed the bombing campaign, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio did describe Israel’s actions as “unilateral”.

Instead, Trump put the onus for the attacks on Iran, saying its officials should have heeded his calls to reach a deal to dismantle the country’s nuclear programme.

“I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come,” Trump wrote in a social media post.

Parsi said that, at the outset, Trump wanted to reach a deal with Iran, but his demands for Tehran to end uranium enrichment led to a deadlock in the talks.

“Instead of pursuing the negotiations in a reasonable way, he adopted the zero enrichment goal, which predictably would lead to an impasse, which predictably the Israelis used to push him towards military strikes and escalation,” he told Al Jazeera.

Parsi added that he believed Trump engaged in deception over the past week by pushing diplomacy while knowing that the Israeli strikes were coming.

“Trump deliberately made statements in favour of diplomacy, in favour of not having Israel attack, leading everyone to think that, if there is an attack, it would happen after the six rounds of talks on Sunday,” he said. “Instead, it happened sooner.”

The ‘America First’ base

While the Israeli strikes garnered some criticism in Congress, many Republicans and Democrats cheered them on.

But a key part of Trump’s base has been a segment of the right wing that questions the US’s unconditional support for Israel.

“They really are representative of a solid constituency within the Republican Party, especially if you look at younger individuals,” said Jon Hoffman, research fellow in defence and foreign policy at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank.

Hoffman pointed to a recent Pew Research Center survey that suggested 50 percent of Republicans under the age of 50 have an unfavourable view of Israel.

“Among the electorate itself, the American people are sick and tired of these endless wars,” he told Al Jazeera.

Foreign policy hawks who favour military interventions dominated the Republican Party during the presidency of George W Bush, who launched the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan in the aftermath of the attacks on September 11, 2001.

But those two conflicts proved to be disastrous. Thousands of US soldiers were killed, and many more were left with lasting physical and psychological scars. Critics also questioned whether the wars advanced US interests in the region — or set them back.

The nation-building project in Iraq, for instance, saw the rise of a government friendly to Iran and the emergence of groups deemed to be a threat to global security, including ISIL (ISIS).

In Afghanistan, meanwhile, the Taliban returned to power in 2021, almost exactly two decades after the group was ousted by US forces. The US-backed Afghan government quickly crumbled as American troops withdrew from the country.

During his campaign for re-election in 2024, Trump tapped into the anger that the two conflicts generated. On multiple occasions, he sketched an alternative timeline where, if he had been president, the collapse of the Afghan government would have never occurred.

“We wouldn’t have had that horrible situation in Afghanistan, the most embarrassing moment in the history of our country,” Trump said at one October 2024 rally in Detroit.

The US president also slammed his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris for her alliance with Dick Cheney, who served as Bush’s vice president, and his daughter Liz Cheney, criticising them as “war hawks”.

“Kamala is campaigning with Muslim-hating warmonger, Liz Cheney, who wants to invade practically every Muslim country on the planet,” Trump told another crowd in Novi, Michigan. He added that Dick Cheney “was responsible for invading the Middle East” and “killing millions”.

But critics say Trump’s posture towards the Israeli strikes in Iran risks embroiling him in his own Middle East conflict.

Hoffman, for instance, pointed to the closeness of the US-Israel relationship and the persistence of officials within the Republican Party who have been pushing for conflict with Iran for decades, like Senator Lindsey Graham.

“There is a tremendous risk of the United States being dragged into this war,” Hoffman said.

Hossein Salami, who was appointed to lead the IRGC in 2019, among the most senior figures killed by Israel.

Hossein Salami, the commander of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was among the senior Iranian officials killed in Israel’s sweeping air strikes that began on Thursday.

A longtime confidant of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Salami rose up the ranks in Iran, becoming head of the IRGC in 2019, when he replaced Mohammad Ali Jafari.

Like many of his contemporaries, Salami’s formative years came during the Iran-Iraq war that pitted the neighbours against each other and killed hundreds of thousands of people between 1980 and 1988.

Salami began his IRGC career during the war and is reported to have fought in several battles and held leadership positions.

His wartime experience gave him a badge of legitimacy that was one of the reasons he was then able to rise through the IRGC ranks. By 2005, Salami had been appointed as commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, where he was responsible for ballistic missile and drone development, before being appointed deputy commander-in-chief of the IRGC in 2009.

Sanctions

As is the case for many in the upper echelons of the Iranian military apparatus, Salami was subject to sanctions in 2007 by the United States for his role in missile development. The United Nations Security Council also sanctioned him for the same reason the year before.

Salami was also subject to Canadian sanctions for his role in subduing antigovernment protests in 2022, while the European Union sanctioned him for his involvement in supplying drones to Russia for military operations in Ukraine.

During his leadership of the IRGC, Iran strengthened the so-called “Axis of Resistance”, a group of allied countries and groups across the Middle East who were funded or acted in coordination with the IRGC, including Syria under the Bashar al-Assad regime, the Lebanese group Hezbollah, the Palestinian group Hamas, Yemen’s Houthi rebels and allied Shia groups in Iraq.

“We shall fight them [our enemies] on the global level, not just in one spot,” Salami was quoted as saying. “Our war is not a local war. We have plans to defeat the world powers.”

Death

“With hearts filled with sorrow and grief, we mourn the unjust martyrdom of the loyal and steadfast commander, Major-General Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,” the IRGC said in a statement reported by IRNA, the Iranian news agency, on Friday.

Salami died in an air strike, according to Iranian media. The attacks killed many of the top military figures in Iran and notable nuclear scientists. Iran has responded by attacking Israel with ballistic missiles – the very weapon Salami had such an important role in developing for the country.

After Salami’s assassination, Ahmad Vahidi was announced as his successor.

“On a human level you will have gaps of knowledge when you assassinate people who decide military strategy, are fluent in multiple languages, have personal networks and charisma within the command chain,” Reza H Akbari, Middle East and North Africa programme manager at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, told Al Jazeera.

“But it’s difficult to destroy an existing structure that goes with existing nuclear knowledge and the command chain within the military and security apparatus of the country.”

Israel’s attacks on Iranian nuclear and military sites mark a significant escalation in regional tensions, and may reshape Tehran’s nuclear calculus.

The coordinated strikes killed several senior military and security officials, including the head of Iran’s military Mohammad Bagheri, and the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami.

“One of the concerns in attacking the nuclear sites has been that setbacks could lead Iran to reconstitute their operations with a more determined effort to obtain a nuclear deterrent,” said Ali Vaez, an expert on Iran for the International Crisis Group (ICG).

Sceptics validated

Iran has long had an internal debate among reformers and hardliners about whether to reach an agreement with the United States on its nuclear programme.

“[The attacks] likely confirmed the position of hardliners and ultra hardliners who said that Iran was wasting its time to try and negotiate with the West … they said Iran can never negotiate from a position of weakness and appeasement,” said Reza H Akbari, an analyst on Iran and the Middle East and North Africa Programme Manager at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting.

Talks between Iran and the US have suffered from a large trust deficit after President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled out of the nuclear deal between Iran and several Western nations, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), during his first term in 2018.

The JCPOA was orchestrated by Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama and endorsed by the United Nations Security Council in 2015.

It aimed to monitor Iran’s nuclear programme to ensure it did not approach weaponisation levels. In exchange, some sanctions were lifted from Iran.

While the deal was lauded as an achievement of diplomacy, Israel disapproved of the JCPOA. Ten years later, the US and Iran appeared interested in striking another similar deal.

The former ostensibly did not want to get dragged into a regional war as tensions mounted across the Middle East, while the latter was again looking for much-needed sanction relief.

But Israel’s strikes on Iran, which were reportedly planned months in advance and with US approval, have scuttled any diplomatic solution in the short term, said Akbari.

“It’s hard to imagine that someone in the shoes of Iran’s supreme leader [Ali Khamenei] is not taking the side of hardliners after this,” he told Al Jazeera.

No other options

In response to Israel’s strikes, Iran has launched drones and ballistic missiles at Israel, with some hitting targets on the ground.

In the past, Iran’s deterrence against external aggression relied primarily on its self-described “Axis of Resistance”.

The axis consisted of powerful armed groups across the region, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, as well as Syria under former President Bashar al-Assad.

However, Hezbollah’s capabilities were degraded significantly during the peak of its recent war with Israel, which lasted from September to late November last year.

Al-Assad’s fall in December, the culmination of a more than decade-long civil war in Syria, also compromised Iran’s ability to resupply Hezbollah through Syria, as it used to do.

Trump is now exploiting Iran’s weakness by urging it to capitulate to a deal that would see it give up its nuclear programme, said Michael Stephens, an expert on regional response to Iran’s nuclear programme with the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI), a defence think tank.

On Friday, Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran must make a deal before there is “nothing left” of the country and that the next Israeli attacks will be even “more brutal”.

Later that evening, Israel carried out more air strikes on Iran’s military sites and nuclear facilities.

“There are no good options for [Iran] really,” said Stephens.

“Either Khamenei … orders his negotiators to compromise on the nuclear file or … he holds firm [and] more sites are hit and further targeted assassinations of high-level officials take place,” he told Al Jazeera.

“Either way, if Iran decides to sprint towards a bomb, it’s going to be very, very difficult to do that now,” he added.

Last stand

Despite Iran’s military weakness compared with the US and Israel, it is wary of giving up its nuclear programme, analysts told Al Jazeera.

Negar Mortazavi, an expert on Iran with the Centre for International Policy (CIP), said Iranian officials have long referred to the fate of former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, who agreed to give up his nuclear weapons programme in exchange for US sanction relief in 2003.

The deal came after the US President George W Bush had launched his so-called “War on Terror” after the September 11, 2001, attacks, which led to the invasion and prolonged occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan.

At the time, Bush warned his partners and foes in the region that they were either “with us or against us”.

Eight years after Gaddafi gave up his nuclear programme, the US backed a pro-democracy uprising in Libya, which spiralled into an armed rebellion and led to Gaddafi’s overthrow and eventual death.

“The [Libya] scenario is something that Iran has taken notice of, and they don’t want to go down that path,” Mortazavi explained.

She added that Iran may likely pull out from the JCPOA and try to quickly expand its nuclear programme in reaction to Israel’s ongoing assault.

“Just how far and how soon Iran will expand its nuclear programme is unclear,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.

Israel’s aerial assault on Iran has destroyed the above-ground enrichment plant at Natanz, where there is now “contamination”, according to Rafael Grossi, chief of the United Nations nuclear watchdog.

Grossi delivered the update during an emergency UN Security Council meeting in New York on Friday, where he and other senior UN officials urged both Israel and Iran to show restraint to prevent a deeper regional conflict.

“I have repeatedly stated that nuclear facilities should never be attacked regardless of the context or circumstances, as it could harm both people and the environment,” said Grossi, who heads the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

He reported radiological and chemical contamination inside the Natanz facility, where Iran was producing uranium enriched up to 60 percent. However, he added that the contamination is “manageable with appropriate measures”, and said the IAEA is ready to send nuclear security experts to help secure the sites if requested.

“I call on all parties to exercise maximum restraint to avoid further escalation,” he added.

UN Undersecretary-General for Political Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo also urged both sides to show “maximum restraint at this critical moment”.

“A peaceful resolution through negotiations remains the best means to ensure the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme,” she told the council. “We must at all costs avoid a growing conflagration which would have enormous global consequences.”

Israeli ‘declaration of war’

The 15-member Security Council, also joined by representatives of Israel and Iran, met at Iran’s request after Israel struck several Iranian nuclear facilities and military sites in the early hours of Friday, and carried out assassinations of senior military officials and nuclear scientists.

Iran’s UN Envoy Amir Saeid Iravani told the emergency meeting that the attacks, which he described as a “declaration of war” and “a direct assault on international order”, had killed 78 people and injured more than 320.

He accused the US of providing Israel with both intelligence and political support for the attacks, the consequences of which he said it “shares full responsibility” for.

“Supporting Israel today is supporting war crimes,” he said.

The US representative, McCoy Pitt, insisted the US was not involved militarily in the strikes, but defended them as necessary for the self-defence of Israel.

He warned that the “consequences for Iran would be dire” if it targeted US bases or citizens in retaliation. “Iran’s leadership would be wise to negotiate at this time,” he said.

‘How long did the world expect us to wait?’

Israel’s UN envoy Danny Danon cast its attack on Iran’s nuclear sites as “an act of national preservation”, claiming Iran was days away from producing enough fissile material for multiple bombs.

“This operation was carried out because the alternative was unthinkable,” said Danon. “How long did the world expect us to wait? Until they assemble the bomb? Until they mount it on a Shahab missile? Until it is en route to Tel Aviv or Jerusalem?”

“We will not hesitate, we will not relent, and we will not allow a genocidal regime to endanger our people,” said Danon

An Iranian counterattack on Israel took place while the UN meeting was in progress, with Iran firing waves of ballistic missiles at Israeli targets.

“Iran affirms its inherent right to self-defence,” said Iran’s Iravani, promising to respond “decisively and proportionately” against Israel.

“This is not a threat, this is the natural, legal and necessary consequence of an unprovoked military act,” he said.

Vassily Nebenzia, Russia’s UN ambassador, told the council Israel’s actions in the Middle East are “pushing the region to a large-scale nuclear catastrophe”.

“This completely unprovoked attack, no matter what Israel says to the contrary, is a gross violation of the UN Charter and international law,” he said.

Israel’s strike on military and nuclear sites, and Iran’s retaliation, have rocked already strained global supply chains.

As airlines suspend flights to Tel Aviv, Tehran and other airports across the region, oil companies, shipping firms, and regulatory agencies are scrambling amid growing concerns that key trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz could be caught in the crossfire.

Merchant shipping is still passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but with increased caution. Iran has previously threatened to close this critical trade route in response to Western pressure. Even the suggestion of such a move has already sent shockwaves through global markets, and the price of oil has risen.

United States President Donald Trump’s latest rhetoric has done little to ease those concerns. He warned that if Iran does not “make a deal”, there could be more “death and destruction”.

“If the United States is perceived to be involved in any attacks, the risk of escalation increases significantly,” Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer with shipping association BIMCO, told the Reuters news agency.

Oil Prices Rise

As of 4:00pm in New York (20:00 GMT), Brent crude prices, which are considered the international standard, are 5 percent higher than yesterday’s market close.

Oil futures spiked more than 13 percent at one point, reaching their highest levels since January.

Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic trade route between the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s global oil output travels, would likely drive oil prices even higher. This could intensify inflationary pressures globally, and particularly in the US.

The price surge comes on the heels of a better-than-expected Consumer Price Index report in the US earlier this week, which showed prices increased by just 0.1 percent for the month. Energy costs remain a key inflation driver. Petrol prices, in fact, fell 2.6 percent during the period. Consumer sentiment, too, jumped for the first time in six months as tariff fears eased. However, the new conflict could cut short the relief that US consumers had expressed, according to analysts from JPMorgan Chase.

Wait and see 

“Sustained gains in energy prices could have a dire impact on inflation, reversing the months-long trend of cooling consumer prices in the US,” commodity researchers for JPMorgan Chase said in a note released on the heels of the strike. “We continue to believe that any political policies that might drive oil and inflation higher would likely yield to Trump’s primary objective of maintaining low energy prices—a campaign promise,” analysts Natasha Kaneva, Prateek Kedia, and Lyuba Savinova wrote.

The markets more broadly dropped on the news. The S&P 500 tumbled 1.1 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1.7 and the Nasdaq is 1.3 percent lower.

“Today, as you can see from the markets, whether it’s the S&P, whether it’s Bitcoin, things have been kind of stable or flat. So there’s a little bit of a wait-and-see approach. Oil is acutely affected simply because Iran is such a significant part of the global oil supply. But thus far, Israel has refrained from hitting in any severe fashion the oil infrastructure of Iran. Should that change, that will obviously have a much more dramatic impact,” Taufiq Rahim, an independent geopolitical strategist and Principal for the 2040 Advisory, told Al Jazeera.

If shipping through the critical seaway were suspended, even temporarily, the International Energy Agency said it is well supplied to release emergency reserves, if needed. However, that comes with the risk of depletion.

There are 1.2 billion barrels in its strategic reserves. The world uses about 100 million barrels of oil per day.

“If it does rise to the level of closing the Strait of Hormuz, well, now that’s going to be the biggest oil shock of all time,” Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist and senior vice president at BCA Research, a macroeconomic research firm, told Al Jazeera.

OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais criticised the IEA for its statement that it could release strategic reserves, saying it “raises false alarms and projects a sense of market fear through repeating the unnecessary need to potentially use oil emergency stocks”.

This comes amid increased pressure for the group of oil-producing nations to increase output. Earlier this month, OPEC+ members agreed to raise production by 411,000 barrels for the month of July.

The Strait of Hormuz remains open for now. Countries, including Greece and the United Kingdom, have advised ships to avoid the Gulf of Aden, the body of water between Yemen and Somalia that connects to waterways that are close to Israel, and to log all voyages through the Strait, according to documents first seen by Reuters.

Further escalation on the horizon?

Iran could attack Iraq to reduce the global oil supply to further escalate tensions. In January 2024, Iran attacked Iraq, which it said was in retaliation for armed attacks within its own territory, The New York Times reported.

“We should assume that we’re going to lose both Iranian and Iraqi oil production, which brings us to the point where we could be seeing five to seven million barrels per day taken offline,” Gertken told Al Jazeera.

Gertken believes Iran would do this to provoke the West.

“They have to take out some oil supply, but not attack Saudi Arabia or close the Strait of Hormuz because, of course, that would ensure that the US enters the conflict. They need to target some regional production [where] they can have plausible deniability [and blame] some militant group.”

Iran launched a retaliatory attack against Israel with a barrage of missiles. Video shows one projectile hitting Tel Aviv. The attack was in response to Israeli strikes that killed top Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei says Tehran’s response to Israel’s attack will not not be ‘half measured’.

Iran has launched hundreds of ballistic missiles towards Israel in retaliation for a major attack on Tehran’s nuclear sites.

Explosions were heard over Tel Aviv and Jerusalem as sirens sounded across Israel on Friday night. This follows an unprecedented attack by Israel in the early hours of Friday, which targeted Iranian nuclear sites, senior military commanders and scientists.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said Israel’s strikes had “initiated a war” and it would not be allowed to do “hit and run” attacks without consequences.

“The Zionist regime [Israel] will not remain unscathed from the consequences of its crime. The Iranian nation must be guaranteed that our response will not be half-measured,” Khamenei said in a statement.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said Iran “carried out its crushing and precise response against dozens of targets, military centres and airbases” in Israel at the command of Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Three separate waves of attacks were launched at Israel on Friday night, Iranian state news agency IRNA said.

At least one projectile impacted central Tel Aviv, said Al Jazeera’s Nour Odeh, reporting from Amman, Jordan.

A modern apartment block was hit in central Tel Aviv, and according to live footage from the scene, fires raged inside some of the apartments, with smoke billowing from the building.

Another residential building, next to the apartment block, also appeared to have suffered significant damage, with windows blown and pieces of twisted metal hanging from its exterior.

Israeli newspaper Haaretz, citing emergency services, said 15 people have been wounded in central Israel, with one in moderate condition.

The Israeli public has been instructed to remain in shelters.

Israel’s attacks on Iran killed several top Iranian generals and scientists, including the armed forces chief of staff, Major-General Mohammed Bagheri, and the IRGC chief, Hossein Salami.

However, Major-General Mohammed Pakpour was swiftly promoted to replace Salami.

In a letter to Khamenei read out on state television, Pakpour promised that “the gates of hell will open to the child-killing regime”, referring to Israel.

During Israel’s surprise attack in the early hours of Friday, its military said it had struck more than 200 targets across Iran.

Before Iran’s retaliatory strikes, Israeli military spokesperson Brigadier-General Effie Defrin told journalists that Israel’s army was “continuing to strike”.

“Iran has the ability to significantly harm the Israeli home front”, Defrin told a televised news conference that was cut short due to what the army said was an incoming attack.

The army also urged citizens to stick close to “protected spaces” and avoid public gatherings amid a potential Iranian attack on Israel.

In a statement earlier on Friday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he expected “several waves of Iranian attacks”.

Israel has begun its long-signalled attacks on Iran with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying they would continue “as long as necessary”.

The attacks, which began early on Friday, appear to have been carefully planned, hitting military and government targets and killing several senior military leaders – including the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami, and the chief of staff of the armed forces, Mohammad Bagheri. Prominent Iranian nuclear scientists are also among the dead.

The strikes took place despite negotiations between Iran and Israel’s principal ally, the United States, over the future of Tehran’s nuclear programme, leading many to suspect that the threat of Israeli action was a coordinated ploy to bring additional pressure onto Iran.

Moments ago, Israel launched Operation “Rising Lion”, a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival.

This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat.

——

Statement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: pic.twitter.com/XgUTy90g1S

— Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) June 13, 2025

US support remains vital to Israel. As well as serving as the country’s principal armourer, Washington also acts as a permanent shield against criticism of Israel in the United Nations, frequently using its veto in the UN Security Council to halt any official censure of its ally despite allegations of Israel’s repeated breaches of international law.

And an attack against Iran – a powerful regional force with allied groups across the Middle East – is ultimately a risky move for Israel, which is expecting an Iranian response, and the US, which has soldiers deployed across the region.

So, given the stakes, why would Israel attack Iran and why now? Here’s what we know:

Did Iran pose an imminent nuclear threat to Israel?

Israel’s military superiority in the Middle East comes not just through its conventional arsenal or the backing of the US, but from the advantage it has that no other country in the region does: nuclear weapons.

Israel is widely acknowledged to have nuclear weapons although it has never publicly admitted it.

An Iranian nuclear weapon would take away that advantage and is, therefore, a red line for Israel. For years, Israel – and particularly Netanyahu – has insisted that Iran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons, even as Tehran has insisted that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes.

Justifying the Israeli attack, Netanyahu said Iran could have produced “a nuclear weapon in a very short time – it could be a year, or it could be a few months”. An unnamed Israeli military official was also quoted as saying Iran had “enough fission material for 15 nuclear bombs within days”.

What is the non-Israeli assessment of Iran’s nuclear capabilities?

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on Thursday that Iran had failed to uphold the obligations it had signed on to as part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, an accusation Iran quickly rejected.

The IAEA also noted what it believed was a long history of noncooperation between Iran and its inspectors. However, it didn’t say that Iran had developed nuclear weapons.

As part of a 2015 deal with the US, other Western countries, China and Russia, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear programme and allow the IAEA to regularly inspect its facilities in return for relief from the crippling sanctions that it was under.

However, in 2018, US President Donald Trump – then in his first presidential term – unilaterally withdrew from the deal and reimposed sanctions.

The US has, however, not found that Iran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons or attempting to do so. In March, US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said the US “continues to assess that Iran is not building nuclear weapons and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not authorised the nuclear weapons programme he suspended in 2003”.

Why else would Israel attack Iran?

Netanyahu has previously described Iran as “the head of the octopus” with “tentacles all around from the Houthis to Hezbollah to Hamas”. The idea is that Iran is at the head of a network of anti-Israeli groups across the region known as the “axis of resistance”.

Since starting the war in Gaza in October 2023, Israel has been able to severely weaken both Hamas and Hezbollah, limiting their abilities to attack Israel. The top leaders of both organisations have been almost entirely taken out, including important figures, such as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh.

The attacks on Hezbollah in particular were not met with the kind of blowback that many in Israel feared, allowing hawks in Israel to argue that their country has an unprecedented opportunity to continue to target its enemies, including Iran, and reshape the entire Middle East. Some may think the opportunity is even there for regime change in Iran – although that would likely require a far longer war than Israel has the capability to conduct.

That is despite there being no direct confrontation since last year between Israel, Iran or any of its allies before Friday’s strikes by Israel. Neither had there been any threat of action, other than that of counterstrikes if Israel did attack.

Was there a domestic political component to Israel’s strikes on Iran?

Many in Israel accuse Netanyahu of making military decisions – including in the war on Gaza, where Israel has killed more than 55,000 Palestinians – on the basis of his own political considerations.

In the eyes of his critics, Netanyahu has become dependent upon conflict, both with Iran and in Gaza, to maintain his coalition. The alternative is to risk the collapse of his government and a public reckoning with his own failings ahead of the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks on Israel, which killed 1,139 people, as well as a potential prison sentence as a result of the multiple corruption charges he faces.

“For Netanyahu, the difference between foreign and domestic politics cannot be distinguished,” Israeli political analyst Ori Goldberg said. “There was no imminent threat to Israel. This was not inevitable. The [IAEA] report did not contain anything suggesting Iran posed an existential threat to Israel.”

Most politicians in Israel have rallied around the military since the strikes on Iran. On Thursday, Netanyahu’s coalition had only survived a vote to dissolve the parliament and trigger elections after reaching an 11th-hour compromise over the contentious exemption of ultra-Orthodox youth from the draft.

But now, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid has praised the attacks on Iran, and left-wing politician Yair Golan has also backed the strikes.

Netanyahu’s decision to strike at Iran had been borne of the “stress” of his political position and his addiction to blood and force, left-wing Israeli member of parliament Ofer Cassif told Al Jazeera.

To Cassif’s regret, however, the move appeared to have won the support of the parliamentary opposition.

Has Israel again broken international law in striking Iran?

According to some legal experts, yes.

Israel has already been accused of breaching countless international laws through its 20-month-long war on Gaza.

And the strikes on Iran may mark a new chapter in the country’s breaches of international law, Michael Becker, a professor of international human rights law at Trinity College in Dublin, told Al Jazeera. “Based on publicly available information, Israel’s use of force against Iran does not fit within the inherent right of self-defence enshrined in the UN Charter.”

“Self-defence requires Israel’s actions to be directed at an ongoing or imminent armed attack by Iran,” added Becker, who has previously worked at the International Court of Justice in The Hague. “There is no indication that an attack by Iran against Israel was imminent, nor is it sufficient under international law for Israel to justify the attack based on its assessment that Iran will soon have a nuclear capability,  especially given the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran.”

UN spokesman says Gaza Humanitarian Foundation is not delivering supplies safely to those in need.

The United Nations says the Israeli- and United States-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) is a “failure” from a humanitarian perspective.

Jens Laerke, spokesperson for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), said aid operations have stalled because the GHF is not delivering supplies safely to those in need.

“GHF, I think it’s fair to say, has been, from a principled humanitarian standpoint, a failure,” Laerke told reporters in Geneva on Friday. “They are not doing what a humanitarian operation should do, which is providing aid to people where they are, in a safe and secure manner.”

The UN and major aid groups have refused to cooperate with the GHF, citing concerns that it prioritises Israeli military objectives over humanitarian needs.

The newly formed private organisation began operations on May 26 after Israel had completely cut off supplies into Gaza for more than two months, sparking warnings of mass famine.

It says it has distributed more than 18 million meals since then.

On Friday, more than 30 Palestinians were killed in Israeli attacks, medical sources told Al Jazeera.

Al Jazeera’s Tariq Abu Azzoum, reporting from Deir el-Balah in central Gaza, said Israeli forces were targeting parts of Khan Younis in southern Gaza with artillery fire and ground attacks.

“The Israeli military is deepening its ground operations,” Azzoum said, saying there were clashes in the eastern part of the city.

The besieged territory remained under a communications blackout for a second day on Friday. Hamas has denounced what it described as an Israeli decision to cut communication lines in Gaza, calling it “a new aggressive step” in the country’s “war of extermination”.

Israel continues to force civilians into what it calls the “safe zone” of al-Mawasi, a barren coastal strip with no infrastructure, which it has repeatedly bombed. A drone strike on a tent there killed at least two people on Friday.

The attack left “everyone on the ground quite confused about where they can go in order to find safety”, Azzoum said.

Israel locks down occupied West Bank

In the occupied West Bank, Israel sealed all crossings and checkpoints between Palestinian towns and cities early on Friday, shortly after it launched a wave of air strikes on targets in Iran.

Sources told Al Jazeera the closures were imposed without any indication of when they might be lifted.

The Palestine Red Crescent Society said its ambulances were being denied access to patients, including those in urgent need of medical care.

In occupied East Jerusalem, Israeli forces closed Al-Aqsa Mosque, preventing Palestinians from attending Friday prayers.

Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa held an emergency cabinet meeting in response and activated crisis committees across the West Bank.

Iranians awoke to bombs dropping across the country, as Israel launched a major attack on the country. Israel says it targeted military and nuclear sites and officials, but entire residential buildings have been destroyed.

President Donald Trump has urged Iran to agree to US demands to restrict its nuclear programme as Tehran promised a strong response to Israeli air strikes targeting its nuclear sites and military facilities, killing at least two senior military commanders and several nuclear scientists.

Writing on his Truth Social platform on Friday, Trump warned that the “next already planned attacks” on Iran would be “even more brutal” and urged Iranian officials to “make a deal before there is nothing left”.

“Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left… JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” he said.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier said that the United States had no part in the Israeli attacks and urged Iran not to target American interests or personnel in the region in retaliation, but Tehran said Washington would be “responsible for consequences”.

Iran promised a harsh response to the barrage, and Israel said it was trying to intercept about 100 drones launched towards Israeli territory in retaliation.

Iranian state media has reported that Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, were both killed in the attacks. Nuclear scientists Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi and Fereydoun Abbasi were also killed.

Some 200 Israeli warplanes took part in overnight air strikes on Iran, hitting more than 100 targets in the country, according to Israeli army spokesman, Brigadier General Effie Defrin.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel struck at the “heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme”, taking aim at the main uranium enrichment facility in Natanz.

The attacks would “continue as many days as it takes”, he said.

Iranian media reported explosions, including some at the main uranium enrichment facility at Natanz. Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation said Natanz had sustained damage but no casualties had been reported.

On Friday afternoon, Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported a new Israeli attack in the city of Tabriz, northwest of Iran.

‘Severe punishment for Israel’

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Israel that it “must expect severe punishment” after the assault. The country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs added that Tehran has a “legal and legitimate” right to respond.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is expected to address the public, also said in a statement on his official X account: “The Zionist regime will regret its action today.”

Israel’s military said on Friday it was intercepting Iranian drones. The country’s public broadcaster and Channel 12 reported that Israel also intercepted drones over Saudi Arabia.

At about 08:00 GMT, Israeli media reported that an earlier order requiring citizens to remain near protected areas had been lifted.

In the Iranian city of Qom, hundreds of protesters gathered at the Jamkaran Mosque to demand a “severe punishment” for Israel in response to the strikes.

Mohammad Eslami, a research fellow at Tehran University, said Iranian leaders are preparing an imminent strike on Israel targeting military and nuclear facilities.

“The Iranian military were thinking about this scenario for many years and also in recent days, we have heard lots of statements by the Defence Ministry of Iran that they are ready for any strike by the Israelis,” he told Al Jazeera from Tehran.

“Most Iranian political parties support defending the country because all Iranians [know] the history of Iraq attacking Iran. This is not about political points of view,” he added.

Nuclear talks

US and Iranian officials are due to attend a sixth round of talks over Iran’s nuclear programme in Oman on Sunday.

The two sides have been negotiating over Iran’s enrichment of uranium, with Trump stating recently that “zero” enrichment should be allowed in Iran. He has also said repeatedly that Iran will not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons.

Tehran has consistently said that its nuclear programme is only for civilian purposes.

Iran said in a statement that Israel’s “cowardly” attack showed why Iran had to insist on enrichment, nuclear technology and missile power.

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors on Thursday declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in almost 20 years.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi says Iran has reported no elevated radiation levels after Israel’s attack on the Natanz nuclear facility. He warned of risks to public safety and urged all sides to avoid further escalation.

Israel on Friday morning struck multiple Iranian military and nuclear facilities, as well as residential homes in Tehran known to house senior security officials, pulling the region to the brink of a full-fledged war between the rivals.

The attacks killed multiple senior members of Iran’s military. They included General Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces and the country’s highest-ranking military official.

Who was Bagheri?

Bagheri was born Mohammad Hossein Afshordi in the 1960s. In his current role, he oversaw both the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the rest of the country’s military, also ensuring coordination between those different arms of the country’s security apparatus.

He reportedly had a distinguished military career with the IRGC; however, little is known about him outside of his record of service, academic achievements and multiple sanctions imposed by various international bodies.

“A lot [of] higher-ranked intelligence and military officials in Iran tend to be more on the secretive side,” Reza H Akbari, Middle East and North Africa programme manager at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, told Al Jazeera.

Bagheri joined the IRGC in 1980, a year after the Iranian revolution and the same year the Iran-Iraq war began. That conflict lasted eight years and saw hundreds of thousands of people killed on both sides, with Iran enduring the greater losses.

One of those killed was Bagheri’s older brother, Hassan, who had reportedly founded the IRGC’s military intelligence branch in 1980 and who, aged 27, led a division.

Bagheri fought in the Iran-Iraq war, according to a United States congressional research report, which described him as “an early IRGC recruit who fought against a post-revolution Kurdish uprising and in the Iran-Iraq War”.

According to Iranian media, Bagheri became the head of the IRGC’s intelligence operations in 1983, after the death of his brother. After the war, he also served as deputy head of intelligence and operations, and as the head of the armed forces’ common affairs.

He played a “special role” in a 1997 operation in Iraq against Kurdish forces, according to Rokna, an Iranian state-affiliated news agency. In 2016, he replaced Major-General Seyyed Hassan Firoozabadi as the chief of staff of the IRGC.

He was affiliated with an “elite force within the IRGC,” according to Akbari, tasked with “carrying out the most sensitive missions, especially those related to the air force unit”.

Bagheri was sanctioned by the US in 2019, when the first Trump administration levelled sanctions against what they called the “inner circle” of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

The European Union, meanwhile, reportedly sanctioned Bagheri for supplying Russia with drones, while he was further sanctioned by the US, Canada and the United Kingdom for his role in the crackdown on the 2022 protests in Iran following the killing of Mahsa Amini.

Following Bagheri’s assassination, Iran appointed Ahmad Vahidi, a former defence and interior minister, as his interim replacement.

In addition to Bagheri, Israel also assassinated Hossein Salami, commander in chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and Gholamali Rashid, deputy commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

They also killed multiple nuclear scientists in the Friday morning attacks.

The attacks came as the US and Iran were preparing for their next round of nuclear talks on Sunday in Muscat. Rhetoric over a possible attack from Israel and the US had intensified in recent days and US embassy staff had been put on alert in numerous locations, while Iran had responded with its own warnings of potential retaliation if struck.

The attacks were condemned by many in the international community, including many Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar, who called it a “flagrant violation” of international law.

US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff said on Friday morning that he still expected talks to continue on Sunday.

But Akbari of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting said he saw little likelihood of the US-Iran negotiations continuing. “I find the plausibility of talks continuing as slim to none,” he said.

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European equities tumbled when the market opened on Friday and oil prices surged, as investors reacted to Israel’s large-scale air strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, fuelling fears of a broader Middle East conflict.

The operation, named Rising Lion, marks the most extensive Israeli military action on Iranian soil to date, targeting over 100 facilities including the Natanz complex and missile sites near Tehran.

As of 9.15am CEST, the Euro STOXX 50 had dropped 1.5%, extending weekly losses to 2.7% — the worst performance since early April.

Financials led the downturn among Eurozone blue chips. Deutsche Bank fell 2.73%, UniCredit 2.56%, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria 2.48% and Banco Santander 2.46%.

Germany’s DAX lost 1.34% to 23,453, France’s CAC 40 dropped 1.35% to 7,660, Italy’s FTSE MIB retreated 1.68% to 39,271, and Spain’s IBEX 35 fell 1.70% to 13,849.

Oil prices surged following the Israeli strike, as markets began to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium. Brent crude jumped over 5% to trade at $73 (€68) per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose to $71.5 (€66.60). For the week, oil prices are up more than 10%, on track for the strongest weekly gain since October 2022.

As energy prices rallied, oil majors such as Italy’s Eni and Spain’s Repsol gained 2%.

German defence powerhouse Rheinmetall also rose 2% as investors turned to military and security-exposed stocks.

Dutch TTF natural gas futures climbed 2% to €37.12 per megawatt hour, amid concerns over potential disruptions to energy flows.

The Israeli campaign involved over 200 fighter jets, according to the IDF, and reportedly resulted in the death of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders Hossein Salami and Mohammad Bagheri.

Gold eyes new record, dollar rebounds

Demand for safe-haven assets surged. Gold rose 1% to $3,430 (€3,200) per ounce, nearing its all-time high of $3,500. Silver also held ground, hitting $36.5 per ounce overnight.

The dollar gained strength following days of steady declines. The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1540 after touching a three-year high of 1.16 on Thursday. On the data front, Germany’s final inflation reading for May was confirmed at 2.1% year-over-year. Spain’s annual inflation was upwardly revised from 1.9% to 2%.

The pound also slipped 0.5% to $1.1350.

The Israeli shekel tumbled 1.8% against the dollar, heading for its steepest daily loss since the Hamas attack of October 2023.

Analysts see upside risks for oil prices

“The Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities has sent oil prices spiking and has offered the oversold and undervalued dollar a catalyst for a rebound,” said Francesco Pesole, currency strategist at ING.

While there are currently no confirmed disruptions to oil production, analysts warn that the situation could escalate rapidly.

“The key difference from previous standoffs is that nuclear facilities have now been targeted,” Pesole added.

Warren Patterson, head of commodities research at ING, noted: “In a scenario where we see continued escalation, there’s the potential for disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Almost a third of global seaborne oil trade moves through that route.”

He warned that up to 14 million barrels per day could be at risk, with oil potentially surging to $120 per barrel in the event of a prolonged disruption — levels not seen since 2008.

Israel says it has launched a ‘major strike’ on military and nuclear sites across Iran, killing top commanders and nuclear scientists. Iran said residential areas in Tehran were hit and civilians were killed.

Israel’s far-right finance minister says he wants to cut Palestinian banks off from the global financial system.

Bezalel Smotrich’s plan has not yet been approved by the Israeli government.

But if it does happen, what could the consequences be?

Presenter: 

Cyril Vanier

Guests: 

Raja Khalidi – Director-general at the Palestine Economic Policy Research Institute

Shahd Hammouri – Lecturer in international law at the University of Kent

Mustafa Barghouti – Secretary-general at the Palestinian National Initiative