Middle East

Which Iranian oil and gas facilities has Israel hit? Why do they matter? | Oil and Gas News

Israel has struck some of Iran’s most vital oil and gas facilities, the first such attacks despite decades of rivalry between the Middle Eastern nations, raising fears of a widening conflict and threatening turmoil for the markets.

Late on Saturday, Iran’s Ministry of Petroleum said Israel struck a key fuel depot, while another oil refinery in the capital city of Tehran was also in flames, as emergency crews scrambled to douse the fires at separate sites.

Iran has also partially suspended production at the world’s biggest gasfield, the South Pars, which it shares with neighbour Qatar, after an Israeli strike caused a fire there on Saturday.

The latest round of exchange of projectiles began on Friday after Israel launched attacks on Iran’s military and nuclear sites and assassinated several top military officials and nuclear scientists. Tehran retaliated by firing ballistic missiles and drones at multiple cities in Israel amid global calls for de-escalation.

According to Iranian state media, Israeli attacks have killed at least 80 people, including 20 children, and wounded 800 others over the past two days. Israeli authorities said that 10 people had been killed in Iranian strikes, with over 180 injured.

Israel’s unprecedented and sudden attacks on Iran’s energy facilities are poised to disrupt the oil supplies from the Middle East, and could shake up global fuel prices, even as both countries threaten each other with even more intense attacks.

So, what are the key energy sites in Iran hit in Israeli attacks? And why do they matter?

INTERACTIVE - Israel attacks world's largest gas field - JUNE15, 2025-1749983731

Which major facilities were hit in Israeli attacks?

Iran holds the world’s second-largest proven natural gas reserves and the third-largest crude oil reserves, according to the United States government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), and its energy infrastructure has long been a potential target for Israel.

Before the current spiral in their conflict, Israel had largely avoided targeting Iranian energy facilities, amid pressure from its allies, including the US, over the risks to global oil and gas prices from any such attack.

That has now changed.

On Friday, Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz warned that if Iran retaliated to its attacks, “Tehran will burn”.

Late on Saturday, major fires broke out at two opposing ends of the Iranian capital — the Shahran fuel and gas depot, northwest of central Tehran, and one of Iran’s biggest oil refineries in Shahr Rey, to the city’s south.

While Iran’s Student News Network subsequently denied that the Shahr Rey refinery had been struck by Israel, and claimed it was still operating, it conceded that a fuel tank outside the refinery had caught fire. It did not explain what sparked the fire.

But Iran’s Petroleum Ministry confirmed that Israel had struck the Shahran depot, where firefighters are still trying to bring flames under control.

The Israeli aerial attacks also targeted the South Pars field, offshore Iran’s southern Bushehr province. The world’s largest gasfield is the source of two-thirds of Iran’s gas production, which is consumed nationally. Iran shares the South Pars with its neighbour Qatar, where it is called the North Field.

The strikes triggered significant damage and fire at the Phase 14 natural gas processing facility and halted an offshore production platform that generates 12 million cubic metres per day, reported the semiofficial Tasnim news agency.

In a separate Israeli attack, fire reportedly broke out at the Fajr Jam gas plant, one of Iran’s largest processing facilities, also in the Bushehr province, which processes fuel from South Pars. The Iranian Petroleum Ministry confirmed that the facility was hit.

Why are these sites important?

The Shahran oil depot is one of Tehran’s largest fuel storage and distribution hubs. It has nearly 260 million litres of storage capacity across 11 tanks. It is a vital node in the capital’s urban fuel grid, distributing petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel to several terminals across northern Tehran.

The Tehran Refinery, located just south of Tehran, in the Shahr-e Rey district, operated by the state-owned Tehran Oil Refining Company, is one of the country’s oldest refineries, with a refining capacity of nearly 225,000 barrels per day. Experts warn that any disruption to this site — whatever the cause of the fire — could strain fuel logistics in Iran’s most populous and economically significant region.

Down south, the offshore South Pars gasfield in the Gulf contains an estimated 1,260 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas, accounting for nearly 20 percent of known global reserves.

Meanwhile, the hit on the Fajr-e Jam Gas Refinery, in Bushehr province, threatens to disrupt Iran’s domestic electricity and fuel supplies, particularly for the southern and central provinces, which are already under huge stress. In Iran, blackouts cost the economy about $250m a day, according to the government’s estimates.

Uncertain global markets

Adding to the uncertainty in global markets, Iran has noted that it is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz amid the intensifying conflict with Israel – a move that would send oil prices soaring.

The Strait of Hormuz, which splits Iran on one side and Oman and the United Arab Emirates on the other, is the only marine entryway into the Gulf, with nearly 20 percent of global oil consumption flowing through it. The EIA describes it as the “world’s most important oil transit chokepoint”.

The Israeli attacks on Friday, which spared Iran’s oil and gas facilities on the first day of the fighting, had already pushed oil prices up 9 percent, before they calmed just a bit. Analysts expect prices to rise sharply when oil markets open again on Monday.

Alan Eyre, a distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Al Jazeera that Israel was trying to push the US into participating in its attacks on Iran. “Ultimately, Israel’s best case scenario is to encourage, if not regime change, then the toppling of this regime,” he said.

“Iran’s options are very limited; they have to respond militarily to save face domestically [but] it is very unlikely that Iran can cause enough damage to Israel internally or put enough pressure to stop bombing,” Eyre said.

“Iran does not have many allies in the international community – and even if it did, Israel has shown that it is spectacularly unwilling to listen to international opinion,” added Eyre.

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Israel-Iran attacks: Mehdi Taremi unable to join Inter for Club World Cup | Football News

The forward, set to link up with Inter Milan in LA, is stranded in Iran after his home country’s airspace was shut down.

Inter Milan’s Iranian forward Mehdi Taremi could miss the FIFA Club World Cup 2025 in the United States after being unable to leave his home country to join his team amid Iran’s airspace closure due to its ongoing exchange of aerial fire with Israel.

Taremi, who was named in Inter’s squad for the 32-team tournament, was expected to link up with his team in Los Angeles as they gear up for the tournament, but media reports in Italy and the US said on Saturday that the striker is likely to miss the first match on Tuesday and perhaps the entire competition.

“The Iranian striker will not join the Nerazzurri, neither for the first match nor for the others,” Italian sports newspaper La Gazzetta dello Sport reported on Saturday.

“Inter have been in close contact with the Iranian authorities in Italy over the last 24 hours to comfort the player and try [to find] a solution that is currently impossible. The player is in Tehran in a safe place and sheltered from the bombings,” the report added.

The Italian side open their campaign against the Mexican side, Monterrey FC, at the Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena, Los Angeles, on Tuesday, but Taremi is unlikely to be part of the squad.

The 32-year-old captains Iran and was among the goal scorers as they beat North Korea in their AFC World Cup qualifying match at the Azadi Stadium in Tehran on June 10. A day later, he won the inaugural Iranian Toopa Award (Golden Ball).

While it is unclear when the forward was scheduled to fly out of Tehran, his departure for the US was put on hold when Israel began its attacks on Iran on Friday morning, leading to the indefinite closure of its airspace.

Iran responded to the attacks later on the same day, and both countries have been involved in an exchange of fire ever since.

Taremi, who joined Inter Milan on a three-year contract in July 2024, has scored three goals in 43 appearances for the Nerazzurri.

Milan and their opening-game opponents Monterrey are placed in Group E for the Club World Cup alongside Argentinian club River Plate and Japanese side Urawa Red Diamonds.

FILE PHOTO: Soccer Football - World Cup - Asian Qualifiers - Group A - Iran v North Korea - Azadi Stadium, Tehran, Iran - June 10, 2025 Iran's Mehdi Taremi celebrates scoring their second goal   Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS   ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY./File Photo
Mehdi Taremi played and scored in Iran’s AFC World Cup 2026 qualifying game against North Korea at Azadi Stadium in Tehran, Iran on June 10 [Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters]

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Iran launches retaliatory strikes on Israel | Nuclear Weapons News

Iran has struck Israel with barrages of missiles, a day after an Israeli onslaught against its nuclear and military facilities killed top generals and scientists.

Iranian missiles have targeted sites across Israel, killing at least three people and injuring dozens, in retaliation for continuing Israeli attacks on Iran.

Iran called on its citizens to unite in defence of the country as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged them to rise up against their government.

Air raid sirens and explosions rang out across Israel through the night, with many residents holed up in bomb shelters until home defence commanders stood down alerts.

Israel said dozens of missiles – some intercepted – had been fired in the latest salvoes from Iran, with images of the city of Ramat Gan near Tel Aviv showing blown-out buildings, destroyed vehicles and streets strewn with debris.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said they attacked dozens of targets in Israel.

Iran’s missile barrages came in response to intense Israeli strikes on Friday that killed several top Iranian generals and most of the senior leadership of the Revolutionary Guards’ air arm.

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Iran, Israel trade missiles; blasts, air raid sirens rock Tehran, Tel Aviv | Conflict News

Explosions and air raid sirens are being heard again in Iran and Israel as the two nations continue to exchange missiles and drones, a day after the Israeli military killed top Iranian generals and nuclear scientists in the worst such escalation in decades.

Iran’s retaliatory strikes have killed at least four people and wounded more than 200 others in Israel since Friday, as a barrage of dozens of Iranian missiles lit up the skies over Jerusalem and Tel Aviv overnight.

On the Iranian side, at least 80 people, including women and children, have been killed and more than 320 others injured, as the Israeli army targeted residential areas in capital Tehran, military sites and nuclear facilities, killing at least nine nuclear scientists so far.

Accusing Israel of initiating a war, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said it “must expect severe punishment” for killing several top-level military commanders and scientists.

In a message on state TV, he said Israel “should not think that it is over because they attacked and it is finished”.

“No. They started this and initiated the war. We won’t allow them to escape unscathed from this great crime they have committed,” Khamenei said.

Following decades of enmity and conflict by proxy, it is the first time that Israel and Iran have traded fire with such intensity, with fears of a prolonged conflict engulfing the region.

‘Tehran will burn’

Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz warned on Saturday that “Tehran will burn” and its residents will pay dearly if Iran continues its missile strikes against Israeli civilians.

“The Iranian dictator is turning the citizens of Iran into hostages and bringing about a reality in which they – especially the residents of Tehran – will pay a heavy price because of the criminal harm to Israeli civilians,” said Katz.

“If Khamenei continues to fire missiles towards the Israeli home front, Tehran will burn,” the minister added.

Iranian worshippers attend an anti-Israeli rally under portraits of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, left, and the late revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini, right, after their Friday prayers in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Iranians attend an anti-Israel rally after Friday prayers in Tehran, Iran [Vahid Salemi/AP]

On Saturday, two projectiles hit Tehran’s Mehrabad airport which hosts an air force base with fighter jets and transport aircraft, and is located close to key Iranian government buildings.

“The attacks caused explosions at the airport but did not affect any runways, buildings or facilities,” Iran’s state-run news agency IRNA said.

The Israeli military also continued to launch strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran.

“There has been limited damage to some areas at the Fordow enrichment site,” ISNA news agency reported Atomic Energy Organization of Iran spokesperson Behrouz Kamalvandi as saying on Saturday.

“We had already moved a significant part of the equipment and materials out, and there was no extensive damage and there are no contamination concerns.”

Israel’s Iron Dome penetrated

Meanwhile, several Iranian missiles penetrated Israel’s Iron Dome defence system and struck central Tel Aviv, Rishon LeZion and Ramat Gan areas.

Air raid sirens blared in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, sending residents rushing into shelters. An Israeli official said Iran had fired about 200 ballistic missiles in four waves.

A high-rise building was hit overnight in a densely populated area of central Tel Aviv. At least nine buildings were also destroyed in Ramat Gan, according to Israel’s Haaretz newspaper.

A wounded woman is taken on a stretcher after missiles fired at Tel Aviv
Rescue personnel evacuate a wounded woman after an Iranian missile attack in Ramat Gan, Israel [Itai Ron/Reuters]

Mike Huckabee, the United States ambassador to Israel, said he had to go to shelters five times overnight amid Iran’s missile barrage. “It’s now Shabbat here. Should be quiet. Probably won’t be. Entire nation under orders to stay near shelter,” he posted on X.

The Israeli army on Saturday said seven of its soldiers were wounded in a ballistic missile attack on central Israel. They were taken to hospitals and have since been released, according to a military statement.

This is the first confirmation of Israeli military casualties since the escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel began two days ago.

Meanwhile, Palestinian news agency Wafa reported that five people in the occupied West Bank were also injured as rocket shrapnel fell near the town of Sa’ir near Hebron. The five injured included three children, aged six, seven and 12.

Wafa earlier reported that Israel had imposed widespread closures across the occupied West Bank amid the escalating conflict with Iran. Israeli forces have shut down roads, set up checkpoints and prevented freedom of movement for the Palestinians.

Iran warns Israel’s allies

Iran has also warned Israel’s allies – the United States, the United Kingdom and France – that their bases and ships in the region will be targeted if they help defend Israel.

“Any country that participates in repelling Iranian attacks on Israel will be subject to the targeting of all regional bases of the complicit government, including military bases in the Persian Gulf countries and ships and naval vessels in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea by Iranian forces,” a government statement said, according to Iran’s semiofficial Mehr news agency.

Iran has already accused the US of being complicit in the attacks and said it shared full responsibility for the consequences.

Shahram Akbarzadeh, professor of Middle East politics at Deakin University in Australia, said both Israel and Iran appear to be “settling in for the long haul” and more attacks could be expected. He said the US would also be dragged into the conflict.

“When Israel launches attacks on Iran, Iran has to respond, and I think Israel is actually banking on this dynamic – that once the conflict starts, the United States has an obligation and a commitment to Israeli security,” Akbarzadeh told Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged people in Iran to stand up to the “evil and oppressive” regime under Khamenei and seek “freedom”.

Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi said according to the people in Iran, Netanyahu’s message was unwelcome.

“We have to remember that Iranian people are living under the shadow of war, which is now getting translated into a real war. They are also under the pressure of sanctions,” he said.

“People are angry, specifically at the fact that it’s not just military officials and nuclear scientists but very ordinary citizens who were affected by the recent strikes.”

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World leaders weigh in on ‘alarming’ Israel-Iran conflict | Conflict News

World leaders and senior officials have called on both Israel and Iran to walk back from the brink of all-out war as the bitter enemies traded intense attacks for a second day.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed on Saturday that Israel’s strikes on Iranian infrastructure had set its nuclear programme back years, without providing evidence, but rejected global calls for restraint.

“We will hit every site and every target of the Ayatollahs’ regime, and what they have felt so far is nothing compared with what they will be handed in the coming days,” he said in a video message.

During its surprise attack on Friday, the Israeli army targeted more than 200 military and nuclear sites, killing top Iranian army commanders, scientists and other senior officials.

Iran strong retaliation penetrated Israel’s lauded missile defence on Friday night and overnight into Saturday, with air raid sirens sounding across Israel. At least four people were killed, with the Israeli military saying Iran had fired about 200 ballistic missiles in four waves.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned on Saturday of a “more severe and powerful response” if Israel continued to strike.

In light of the escalation, world leaders have spoken to Iranian and Israeli top officials, fearing a possible regional war.

Here is what some countries have said:

US/Russia

The United States President Donald Trump says he spoke to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin about the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. “He feels, as do I, this war in Israel-Iran should end, to which I explained, his war should also end,” Trump wrote in a social media post.

Earlier, top Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters Putin spoke to Trump and condemned Israel’s attacks on Iran. Putin “expressed serious concern about a possible escalation of the conflict, which would have unpredictable consequences for the entire situation in the Middle East”, Ushakov said,

According to Ushakov, Trump described the current events in the Middle East as “very alarming”.

The two leaders did not rule out a return to the negotiating meetings on Iran’s nuclear programme, Ushakov said.

Turkiye

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told the Iranian president that Israel was looking to “drag the whole region into the fire,” according to a statement from the Turkish presidency. Erdogan also told Pezeshkian that Israel’s attacks aimed to divert attention from the genocide in Gaza.

Erdogan told Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that Israel needed “to be stopped”, calling it “the main threat to stability and security in the region”. The issue of Iran’s nuclear programme “can only be resolved through negotiations”, he added. The Turkish leader also spoke with Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

Similarly, Erdogan told Trump in a phone call that he sees nuclear negotiations as the only way to resolve the conflict.

Erdogan told Trump that Turkiye supports Washington’s view that nuclear negotiations should continue to resolve the fighting and that Ankara is ready to help prevent an uncontrolled escalation, a statement by his office said.

China

Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke to his Iranian and Israeli counterparts and made clear Beijing’s support for Tehran.

Wang told Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi that Beijing “supports Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty, defending its legitimate rights and interests, and ensuring the safety of its people”, according to a statement by the foreign ministry.

Wang told Araghchi that Israel’s actions “seriously violate … the basic norms governing international relations”, adding attacks on nuclear facilities “have set a dangerous precedent with potentially catastrophic consequences”.

During his conversation with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, Wang expressed that its attack on Iran was “unacceptable”.

“Diplomatic means for the Iranian nuclear issue have not been exhausted, and there is still hope for a peaceful solution. Force cannot bring lasting peace,” Wang said, adding that Beijing was willing to play a role in de-escalating the conflict.

Qatar

Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani also spoke with Pezeshkian and reiterated Qatar’s strong condemnation and denunciation of the Israeli attack targeting the territory of Iran, considering it a “blatant violation of Iran’s sovereignty and security, and a clear breach of the rules and principles of international law”.

The Qatari leader also called for a diplomatic solution to reach a lasting and comprehensive peace in the region.

A woman sits inside her damaged house at an impact site following the Israeli strikes on Iran, in Tehran, June 14, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS PICTURE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
A woman sits inside her damaged house at an impact site following the Israeli strikes on Iran, in Tehran, June 14, 2025 [Majid Asgaripour/Wana (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters ]

Saudi Arabia

Pezeshkian has held a phone call with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, IRNA reports. The Saudi State news agency confirmed the call.

“Since taking office as president, I have sought to strengthen peace, stability and security in the region, but the Zionist regime has disrupted and sabotaged every area where we wanted to achieve something,” Pezeshkian was quoted as saying.

The Saudi crown prince said, “the Kingdom condemns ongoing attacks that undermine Iran’s sovereignty and security. ”

Ties between Riyadh and Tehran have improved significantly since the two countries agreed to restore diplomatic relations in 2023 after years of animosity.

United Kingdom

The British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Saturday that the UK is moving military assets, including fighter jets, to the Middle East for contingency support across the region.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy said he was “alarmed” by the overnight strikes “with reports of fatalities and injuries in Israel”. “We must urgently de-escalate & prevent any further harm to civilians,” Lammy said on X, adding that he had spoken to his Iranian counterpart “to urge calm”.

Germany

Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul spoke to his Saudi Arabian counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, and warned that the risk of “further escalation is real.” “Iran’s nuclear program threatens not only Israel, but also Saudi Arabia and the broader stability of the region. The countries here share a clear goal: to prevent nuclear proliferation. Germany is firmly committed to de-escalation,” he wrote on X.

France

President Emmanuel Macron said he spoke to his Iranian counterpart and called for French “diplomatic facilities and nationals in Iran and the wider region not to be targeted under any circumstances”. “I also urged the utmost restraint to avoid escalation. Iran’s nuclear program is a serious concern and must be resolved through negotiation,” Macron wrote on X.

“I therefore invited President [Masoud] Pezeshkian to return swiftly to the negotiating table to reach an agreement — the only viable path to de-escalation … We stand ready to contribute and to mobilise all our efforts to achieve that goal,” he added.

Vatican

Pope Leo XIV called on Israel and Iran to show responsibility and reason.

“The situation in Iran and Israel has seriously deteriorated at such a delicate moment. I wish to forcefully renew an appeal for responsibility and reason,” the pope said in a statement. “The commitment to build a safer world free from the nuclear threat must be pursued through a respectful meeting and sincere dialogue,” he said.

“No one should ever threaten the existence of the other,” he added.

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Iranian state media says new missile, drone attack launched against Israel | Conflict News

Iran’s official news agency IRNA says Iranian forces are carrying out a hybrid attack with drones accompanying the missiles targeting Israeli cities, with explosions heard in Israeli cities.

Israel’s Channel 13 cites “initial reports” late Saturday that Iranian missiles have hit the northern coastal city of Haifa and neighbouring town of Tamra. Videos posted to social media, and verified by Al Jazeera’s Sanad, showed Iranian cruise missiles in the skies of northern Israel.

The Israeli military, in the meantime, says it is now attacking military targets in Iran’s capital, Tehran.

Earlier on Saturday, Iran said that Israel intensified its military campaign against it for a second consecutive day, targeting key infrastructure and dealing another blow to the country’s struggling economy, as the conflict spirals towards a potential sustained all-out war.

Iranian officials confirmed that a blaze had erupted at the South Pars gas field – one of the country’s most vital energy sources – after it was struck by Israeli forces on Saturday.

Production from part of the field has been suspended, with state-affiliated media reporting that 12 million cubic metres (423 million cubic feet) of gas from Phase 14 have been temporarily halted. Though Iranian authorities later said the fire had been extinguished, the scale of the disruption remains unclear.

An Israeli official stated the strike was intended as a direct warning to Tehran. The message appears to be part of a broader strategy to cripple Iran’s economic and military capabilities, according to Fox News. The Israeli Broadcasting Authority cited an official as saying, “We attacked another Iranian gas field after Bushehr, and national infrastructure is on the list.”

Energy expert Manouchehr Takin told Al Jazeera that targeting South Pars – crucial for domestic consumption and commercial use – would deepen Iran’s internal energy crisis. “This is an attempt to paralyse Iran’s economy,” Takin said. “The domestic gas network was already under pressure due to sanctions and mismanagement.”

Al Jazeera’s Nour Odeh, reporting from Amman, said the move marked a shift in strategy. “Israel has previously targeted Iran’s military infrastructure, nuclear scientists and missile facilities. Now it’s going after civilian economic assets,” she said, warning that the economic impact could be severe if damage is extensive.

Iran reels from civilian toll and pledges retaliation

Tehran reported at least 80 people killed and more than 320 injured, including women and children, following Israeli strikes on both military and residential sites across the capital.

Among the dead are reportedly nine nuclear scientists. Iran hit back with a barrage of missiles that penetrated Israel’s high-tech missile defence system, with at least four deaths and more than 200 injuries recorded in Israel since Friday.

Iranian state media also claimed the downing of an Israeli F-35 fighter jet, one of the most advanced aircraft in Israel’s arsenal. While several Iranian news outlets have cited a military statement confirming the incident, there is no official footage or visual evidence, and Israeli officials have dismissed the reports as fabricated.

Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi noted growing public anger. “Many Iranians are frustrated that non-military targets were hit,” he said. “There had been hope weeks ago with talks on the table. Now, there’s only uncertainty and fear of escalation.”

The cancelled talks were originally set to take place in Oman on Sunday.

US President Donald Trump had tied the diplomatic effort to Iran’s agreement to roll back its nuclear programme. But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said negotiations were off the table while “barbarous” Israeli attacks continued.

Meanwhile, the Israeli military claimed to have struck more than 150 Iranian targets and warned its operation could continue for weeks. Defence Minister Israel Katz issued a stark warning: “If Khamenei continues to fire missiles at the Israeli home front, Tehran will burn.”

Israeli search and rescue team conduct operation amid the rubble of destroyed building after the attacks of Iranian army following the launch of large-scale Israeli strikes against Iran in Rishon LeZion, Israel on June 14, 2025. [Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu Agency]
Israeli search and rescue team conducts an operation amid the rubble of a destroyed building after the Iranian attacks following the launch of large-scale Israeli strikes against Iran, in Rishon LeZion, Israel, on June 14, 2025 [Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu Agency]

Global leaders alarmed as fears of wider war grow

The prospect of full-scale regional war loomed large, as global leaders issued warnings.

Iran hinted at a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a crucial oil shipping lane – should the conflict deepen. Tehran also warned that any foreign military bases aiding Israel could face retaliatory strikes.

Iran’s capacity for external retaliation, however, has weakened. After nearly two years of war in Gaza and last year’s conflict in Lebanon, its key regional allies – Hamas and Hezbollah – are significantly depleted, narrowing Iran’s military options.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by phone with both Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian. In both calls, Erdogan blamed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for fuelling the crisis.

According to a statement from Erdogan’s office, he told bin Salman that Israel poses the greatest threat to regional stability and urged an immediate halt to its actions. “The only way to resolve the nuclear dispute is through negotiations,” Erdogan said, warning of a potential refugee crisis if the situation spirals further.

The Turkish president also accused Israel of using attacks on Iran to distract from what he labelled a genocide in Gaza. “Netanyahu is trying to set the region on fire and sabotage diplomatic efforts,” Erdogan said, according to the statement.

As international concern mounts, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a 50-minute call on Saturday.

While Trump praised Israel’s strikes and warned Iran of harsher consequences, Putin expressed grave concern and called for a halt to the military campaign. Both leaders, however, left the door open to a possible return to nuclear talks.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke to his Iranian and Israeli counterparts and made clear Beijing’s support for Tehran.

Wang told Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi that Beijing “supports Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty, defending its legitimate rights and interests, and ensuring the safety of its people”, according to a statement by the foreign ministry.

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Can Iran confront Israel on its own? | Armed Groups News

Tehran attacked Israel in retaliatory strikes without the support of regional allies.

Israel pounds Iran – and Iran strikes back, hitting Tel Aviv.

Since Israel’s war on Gaza began in October 2023, Israel has damaged Iran, not just at home, but also outside its territory – by striking its allies.

Hezbollah‘s leader Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated in Beirut, the Houthis in Yemen have taken hits, as well as militias in Iraq.

Israel struck Iranian interests in Syria and Tehran’s ally, former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, was deposed.

Hamas’ leadership has also been decimated, including in assassinations carried out in Tehran.

So is Iran now fighting from a weakened position?

Presenter: Cyril Vanier

Guests:

Ronnie Chatah, Political commentator, writer and host of The Beirut Banyan podcast.

Setareh Sadeqi – Professor at the University of Tehran’s Faculty of World Studies.

David DesRoches, Professor of National Defense University and former Pentagon director of Arabian Peninsula Affairs.

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What is the Strait of Hormuz, could it factor into Israel-Iran conflict? | International Trade News

Iranian lawmaker says Tehran considering closing waterway, described as ‘world’s most important oil transit chokepoint’.

Iran is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian news agency IRINN has reported, citing key conservative lawmaker Esmail Kosari, as the conflict with Israel intensifies.

The move would send oil prices soaring and risk expanding the war. So what is the strategic waterway and why is it vital to global trade?

Hormuz is the only marine entryway into the Persian Gulf. It splits Iran on one side and Oman and the United Arab Emirates on the other, and it links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea in the Indian Ocean.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, about 20 percent of global oil consumption flows through the strait, which the agency describes as the “world’s most important oil transit chokepoint”. At its narrowest point, it is 33km (21 miles) wide, but shipping lanes in the waterway are even narrower, making them vulnerable to attacks and threats of being shut down.

During the Iran-Iraq conflict between 1980 and 1988, which killed hundreds of thousands on both sides, both countries targeted commercial vessels in the Gulf in what became known as the Tanker War, but Hormuz was never completely closed.

More recently, in 2019, four ships were attacked near the strait off the coast of Fujairah, UAE, amid heightened tensions between Iran and the United States during Donald Trump’s first presidency. Washington blamed Tehran for the incident, but Iran denied the allegations.

Attacking shipping lanes has long been used to apply pressure amid conflict. Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen have been attacking ships around Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the entryway into the Red Sea on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula.

While the Houthi campaign has affected global commerce, ships can avoid the Red Sea by sailing around Africa – a longer but safer journey. However, there is no way to ship anything by sea out of the Gulf without going through Hormuz.

Even countries that do not import petrol from Gulf countries would be affected if the strait were to be closed because a major drop in supply would spike the price per barrel on the global market.

Despite the Iranian lawmaker’s threat, it is unclear whether Iran has the ability or willingness to shut down the strait.

Such a move would almost certainly invoke retaliation from the US, which has naval military assets in the region.

After Israel launched a wave of attacks across Iran early on Friday, targeting military leaders, residential buildings, army bases and nuclear sites, Iran responded with hundreds of ballistic missiles.

Although the US helped shoot down the Iranian missiles, Washington has not directly attacked Iran. US officials have stressed that Washington was not involved in the Israeli strikes.

Tehran has not targeted US troops or interests in the region, either.

Closing Hormuz, however, would hit Americans in the wallet and could spark a military response from Trump.

While an Iranian move against the strait may not be imminent, Kosari’s comments underscore that attacking shipping lanes is a card that Tehran may play amid the hostilities.

In April 2024, Iranian armed forces seized a container ship near the Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions across the region after a deadly Israeli attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria. A limited Iranian strike on Israel in response was followed by an Israeli one on Iran. At the time, they were the most serious direct military exchanges between the two foes.

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Israel kills at least 58 people in Gaza, many at US-backed aid site: Medics | Israel-Palestine conflict News

Israeli fire and air strikes have killed at least 58 Palestinians across the Gaza Strip, many of them near an aid distribution site operated by the United States-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), according to local health authorities, the latest deaths of people desperately seeking food for their hungry families.

Medics at al-Awda and Al-Aqsa hospitals in central Gaza, where most of the casualties were moved to, said at least 15 people were killed on Saturday as they tried to approach the GHF aid distribution site near the so-called Netzarim Corridor.

The rest were killed in separate attacks across the besieged and bombarded enclave, they added. Since the GHF started operations last month, at least 274 people have been killed and more than 2,000 wounded near aid distribution sites, according to a statement by the Gaza Ministry of Health.

The GHF said they were closed on Saturday. But witnesses said thousands of people had gathered near the sites anyway, desperate for food as Israel’s punishing 15-week blockade and military campaign have driven the territory to the brink of famine.

‘Execution sites’

Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum, reporting from Deir el-Balah, said Palestinians are starting to see GHF distribution hubs as “execution sites,” considering the repeated attacks there. But people in Gaza “have run out of options, and they are forced to travel to these dangerous humanitarian spaces to get aid”.

Israel imposed a full humanitarian blockade on Gaza on March 2 for 11 weeks, cutting off food, medical supplies and other aid.

It began allowing small amounts of aid into the enclave in late May following international pressure, but humanitarian organisations say it is only a tiny fraction of the aid that is needed.

There has been no immediate comment by the Israeli military or the GHF on Saturday’s incidents.

The GHF – a United States and Israel-backed organisation led by Johnnie Moore, an evangelical Christian who advised US President Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign – began distributing food packages in Gaza on May 27, overseeing a new model of aid distribution which the United Nations says is neither impartial nor neutral.

Israel and the United States say the new system is intended to replace the UN-run network. They have accused Hamas, without providing evidence, of siphoning off the UN-provided aid and reselling it to fund its military activities.

Israel has also admitted to backing armed gangs in Gaza, known for criminal activities, to undermine Hamas. These groups have been blamed for looting aid.

UN officials deny Hamas has diverted significant amounts of aid and say the new system is unable to meet mounting needs. They say it has militarised aid by allowing Israel to decide who has access and by forcing Palestinians to travel long distances or relocate again after waves of displacement.

Later on Saturday, the Israeli military ordered residents of Khan Younis and the nearby towns of Abasan and Bani Suheila in the southern Gaza Strip to leave their homes and head west towards the so-called humanitarian zone area, saying it would forcefully work against “terror organizations” in the area.

More than 80 percent of the Gaza Strip is now within the Israeli-militarised zone, under forced displacement orders, or where these overlap, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). The UN estimates that nearly 665,000 people have been displaced yet again since Israel broke the ceasefire in February.

Israel’s war on Gaza and its population has killed more than 55,290 Palestinians, most of them civilians, according to health authorities in Gaza, and flattened much of the densely populated Strip, which is home to more than two million people. Most of the population is displaced and malnutrition is widespread.

Despite efforts by the United States, Egypt and Qatar to restore a ceasefire in Gaza, neither Israel nor Hamas has shown willingness to back down on core demands, including that Israel implement a permanent ceasefire and not restart the war.

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In Europe, the ground is being prepared for another genocide | Opinions

On April 15, Austrian Nobel laureate Peter Handke was supposed to appear on Austria’s national broadcaster ORF to talk about his new writings. Instead, he proceeded to once again deny that the Srebrenica genocide happened, calling it Brudermord – biblical fratricide and framing it as a spiritual tragedy rather than a crime against humanity.

ORF stood by its decision to interview Handke when it faced criticism. It claimed that it had done nothing wrong since the interviewer acknowledged the genocide in a question.

That a European broadcaster would choose to platform genocide denial at this time is hardly surprising.

Europe faces a crisis not only of memory but of dangerous continuity. From the Holocaust to Srebrenica to Gaza, denial of state violence against marginalised groups seeks to erase past atrocities, normalise present ones, and pave the way for future ones.

Fratricide as ‘the worst crime’

The Bosnian genocide was the first genocide broadcast on television. In 1995, distressing images from Srebrenica filled living rooms worldwide, exposing the failure of international protection. Despite a lengthy process of prosecuting war crimes through the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia and court decisions implicating the complicity of European peacekeepers in the massacres, denial of the Bosnian genocide continues to be well tolerated in Europe.

While Handke is by far not the only prominent public figure who engages in it, his rhetoric makes clear how this crime has come to be weaponised in minimising German and Austrian guilt for the Holocaust.

Handke portrays the Bosnian genocide as a tragic civil war between “brothers” – Brudermord. He romanticises war criminals as victims and embeds genocide denial in a fascist narrative of redemption through ethnic violence.

According to him, fratricide is “much worse” than genocide – ie, those who kill their “brothers” must be deemed worse criminals than the Nazis who killed “the other”. By framing atrocities this way, Handke effectively minimises the responsibility of Germans and Austrians for the Holocaust.

In this twisted narrative, the descendants of the Nazis can claim moral superiority, insisting they did not commit the “worst crime of all”- Brudermord. The chilling implication is that Jews were never truly “brothers” to Europeans like Handke.

Serb nationalists may see Handke as an ally in genocide denial, but he doesn’t defend them – he uses them. Through them, white Europe cleans its hands of its bloody crimes – from Auschwitz to Algeria, from Congo to Rwanda. Handke’s theological language is an alchemy of European conscience, shifting guilt onto the Muslims, the Jews, and the “Balkan savages”.

Transplanting anti-Semitism

Handke’s logic parallels and reinforces the broader campaign to shift the blame for anti-Semitism – and even the Holocaust – onto Arabs and Muslims. In Germany, this trend has been fully embraced by the state and various public institutions, which – against all evidence – have begun to claim that the immigrant Muslim community in the country is responsible for rising anti-Semitic sentiment.

In 2024, the German parliament, the Bundestag, passed a resolution stating that “the alarming extent of anti-Semitism” is “driven by immigration from North African and Middle Eastern countries”.

German media continues to fabricate a “Muslim Nazi past”, with one article claiming: “Unlike Germany, the Middle East has never come to terms with its Nazi past.” Meanwhile, state-funded NGOs have branded the Palestinian keffiyeh a Nazi symbol and echoed the discredited Israeli claim that the grand mufti of Palestine “inspired” the Final Solution.

Germany’s political establishment is now constructing a revisionist moral alibi: one in which Nazis are reimagined as reluctant, remorseful perpetrators, while Palestinians and their Muslim and Arab allies are vilified as more evil than the Nazis themselves.

For many years, this used to be a fringe idea adopted by far-right parties like the Alternative for Germany (AfD). But now, the AfD’s core ideas, not just on Germany’s Nazi past, but also on immigration and Islam, have been widely adopted by the political centre.

This shift reflects a longstanding strategy of displacing guilt. Historian Ernst Nolte, celebrated by the conservative Konrad Adenauer Foundation with a major award in 2000, argued the Holocaust was a reaction to Soviet “barbarism”, relativising Nazi crimes by equating Auschwitz with the Gulag.

Nolte argued that Hitler had “rational” reasons for targeting the Jews and rejected the “collective guilt” attributed to Germany since 1945. Today, AfD leader Alice Weidel echoes this stance, dismissing Germany’s remembrance culture as a “guilt cult”.

Where Nolte blamed the Soviets, today’s political establishment blames Muslims. The goal is the same: to erase German responsibility from history.

From denial to enabling

Genocide denial is not a passive act of forgetting but an active, harmful process that perpetuates violence. Genocide scholar Gregory Stanton recognises denial as the final stage of genocide, one that is also a critical sign that the next one is coming.

For survivors and their descendants, denial deepens trauma by invalidating suffering, distorting truth, and stripping victims of dignity, memory and justice. These wounds extend beyond individuals, affecting entire communities across generations.

Meanwhile, genocide denial shields perpetrators, delays reparations and blocks reconciliation, deepening social divisions. It also undermines international law and human rights frameworks, signalling that even crimes against humanity can be ignored.

Genocide denial, thus, directly prepares the ground for the next genocide to take place and be accepted. We see this clearly in how Europeans are reacting to the genocide in Gaza, denying that it is happening at all, despite repeated pronouncements by United Nations experts and genocide scholars, and continuing to provide Israel with weapons and diplomatic cover.

The playbook developed in Bosnia is now applied to Gaza. It follows a familiar pattern: blame “both sides”, portray victims as aggressors, and assign responsibility to a few individuals – thus hiding systematic violence. This blueprint is perhaps most clearly echoed in the claim that it is only Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his two far-right ministers who are responsible for the “violence” happening in Gaza, thus separating policy from structure and evading deeper accountability.

In the narrative denying the Bosnian genocide, responsibility is also reduced to a few “bad apples” within the Serb state apparatus – as if genocide were a spontaneous aberration rather than a meticulously planned, state-executed crime requiring widespread coordination and intent.

Preparing for a future genocide in Europe

Europe today faces a profound crisis as far-right nationalism surges and a vanishing middle class struggles amid growing social and economic precarity. In many Western countries, the middle class is shrinking while what the right calls “surplus population” – disproportionately composed of Muslims – is increasingly marginalised and scapegoated.

In a time like this, recasting a past genocide against an othered population as a misunderstanding contributes to creating the environment for the next genocide to come. And there are already clear indications that segments of the political class are pushing for removing this “surplus population” under various guises.

The Nazi euphemism “Umsiedlung nach Osten” (resettlement to the East) was a grotesque excuse to deport Jews to gas chambers. Today, European actors like Austrian far-right activist Martin Sellner openly advocate for “remigration”, a sinister echo of this deadly logic aimed at uprooting Muslim communities.

European political elites may not have embraced this term yet, but they are busy putting into practice various policies that have the same ultimate goal – limit or decrease the Muslim presence in Europe. They have been building a legal regime for exclusion through the 2024 EU Migration Pact, plans to offshore asylum seekers to Albania or other countries, and a big injection of cash into Frontex, the EU’s border agency accused of – among other things – illegal pushbacks.

These are not neutral measures but ideological tools of racialised removal, cloaked in liberal rhetoric. And they will only get more violent with time.

This is not alarmism. It’s a pattern. The erosion of rights always begins with those deemed to be “the other”.

If genocide denial is not urgently addressed, if the Gaza genocide is not recognised and immediate action taken to stop it, Europe risks coming full circle. With genocide denial expanding and the urge to renounce responsibility for the Holocaust growing, the ground is being prepared for these horrific atrocities to repeat.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

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Iran says nuclear talks with US ‘meaningless’ as Trump pushes for a deal | Nuclear Weapons News

It is unclear whether the sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks will take place in Oman on Sunday as scheduled.

Iran says dialogue over its nuclear programme with the United States is “meaningless” after Israel launched its biggest-ever military strike against Iran, which Tehran accuses Washington, DC, of supporting.

“The other side [the US] acted in a way that makes dialogue meaningless. You cannot claim to negotiate and at the same time divide work by allowing the Zionist regime [Israel] to target Iran’s territory,” Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim news agency quoted its foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei as saying on Saturday.

The US has denied the Iranian allegation of being complicit in Israel’s attacks and told Tehran at the United Nations Security Council that it would be “wise” to negotiate over its nuclear programme.

US President Donald Trump has called the Israeli attacks on Iran “excellent” after initially warning Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against action that could jeopardise nuclear talks.

Trump on Friday framed the volatile conflict with Israel as a possible “second chance” for Iran’s leadership to avoid further destruction “before there is nothing left and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire”.

The sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks was set to be held on Sunday in Oman, but it was unclear whether it would go ahead after the Israeli strikes.

“It is still unclear what decision we will make for Sunday,” Iran’s IRNA news agency quoted Baghaei as saying on Saturday.

Iran denies that its uranium enrichment programme is for anything other than civilian purposes, rejecting Israeli allegations that it is secretly developing nuclear weapons. Netanyahu has pledged to continue the attacks for “as many days as it takes” to stop Iran from developing a “nuclear threat”.

Trump said on his Truth Social platform that he had warned Iran’s leaders that “it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come”.

“And they [Israelis] know how to use it,” he added.

Trump has blamed Iran for rejecting US proposals on uranium enrichment and has warned of more brutal Israeli strikes to come.

But Hamed Mousavi, professor of political science at Tehran University, told Al Jazeera that many Iranians think it is indeed meaningless to continue nuclear talks with the US when they are being bombed.

“The Israelis essentially killed the diplomatic solution and what was surprising was the Americans were fully coordinating with the Israelis in that regard. So I think it’s unlikely the negotiations will continue,” he said.

Mousavi said the mood in Iran is “pretty defiant” and does not seem to support Israeli goals of a regime change in Tehran.

“The Israelis were really expecting some sort of protest or riots in the Iranian capital by the Iranian people. That hasn’t happened so far. We don’t know if it’s going to happen in the future, but the mood right now is actually pretty defiant. I don’t really see that many Iranians sympathising with the Israelis.”

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Preemptive strike? The media and Israel’s attack on Iran | TV Shows

Media outlets amplify Israel’s narrative about its attack on Iran.

Israel has launched an unprovoked assault on Iran, including strikes on nuclear facilities and assassinations of several senior military commanders and scientists. In front of the world’s media, however, the Netanyahu government is spinning the attack as “preemptive”.

Contributor:
Negar Mortazavi – Host, The Iran Podcast

On our radar:

This past week, phone and internet services virtually collapsed across Gaza, as Israel repeatedly bombed transmission stations and communication towers.

Meenakshi Ravi explains how Gaza now risks digital isolation.

Showdown in LA: A very Trumpian spectacle

President Trump has turned Los Angeles into an ideological battleground amid protests against anti-immigration raids. His mobilisation of the National Guard and marines – without the approval of California’s state government – has produced made-for-TV images of the kind likely to appeal to the MAGA faithful.

For many others, it is yet another sign of a dangerous turn away from civil liberties under his presidency.

Featuring:
Branko Marcetic – Staff writer, Jacobin
Sarah Mehta – Senior policy counsel, ACLU
Jose Olivares – Investigative journalist
Will Swaim – Podcast host, Radio Free California

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Israel may have just pushed Iran across the nuclear line | Nuclear Weapons

Historians may well mark June 13, 2025, as the day the world crossed a line it may not easily step back from. In a move that shocked the international community and sent global markets reeling, Israel launched a wide-scale military operation against Iran in the early hours of the morning, striking targets across at least 12 provinces, including the capital, Tehran, and the northwestern hub of Tabriz. Among the targets were suspected nuclear facilities, air defence systems, and the homes and offices of senior military personnel. Iranian state media confirmed the deaths of several top commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The Israeli government officially confirmed responsibility for the attacks, naming the campaign Operation Raising Lion. Iranian officials described it as the most direct act of war in the countries’ decades-long shadow conflict.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be pursuing two objectives. First, Israeli officials fear that Iran is nearing the technical capability to build a nuclear weapon – something Netanyahu has repeatedly promised to prevent, by force if necessary. Second, Israel hopes a dramatic escalation will pressure Tehran into accepting a new nuclear agreement more favourable to United States and Israeli interests, including the removal of its enriched uranium stockpiles. Just as Netanyahu has failed to destroy Hamas through military force, both goals may ultimately serve only to perpetuate a broader regional war.

While the prospect of all-out war between Iran and Israel has long loomed, Friday’s events feel dangerously different. The scale, audacity and implications of the attack – and the near-certain Iranian response – raise the spectre of a regional conflict spilling far beyond its traditional bounds.

Since the 2011 Arab Spring, a Saudi-Iranian cold war has played out across the region as each country has sought to expand its influence. That rivalry was paused through Chinese mediation in March 2023. But since October 2023, a war of attrition between Israel and Iran has unfolded through both conventional and asymmetrical means – a conflict that now threatens to define the trajectory of the Middle East for years to come.

Whether this confrontation escalates further now hinges largely on one man: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. If Iran’s supreme leader comes to view the survival of the Islamic Republic as fundamentally threatened, Tehran’s response could expand far beyond Israeli territory.

In recent months, Israeli leaders had issued repeated warnings that a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities was imminent. Intelligence assessments in Tel Aviv claimed Iran was only weeks away from acquiring the necessary components to build a nuclear weapon. Although this claim was disputed by other members of the international community, it nonetheless shaped Israel’s decision to act militarily.

At the same time, indirect negotiations between Iran and the US had been under way, focused on limiting Iran’s uranium enrichment and reducing tensions through a revised nuclear agreement. US President Donald Trump publicly supported these diplomatic efforts, describing them as preferable to what he called a potentially bloody war. However, the talks faltered when Iran refused to halt enrichment on its own soil.

The US administration, while officially opposing military escalation, reportedly gave tacit approval for a limited Israeli strike. Washington is said to have believed that such a strike could shift the balance in negotiations and send a message that Iran was not negotiating from a position of strength – similar to how Trump has framed Ukraine’s position in relation to Russia. Although US officials maintain they had advance knowledge of the attacks but did not participate operationally, both the aircraft and the bunker-busting bombs used were supplied by the US, the latter during Trump’s first term.

Initial reports from Iranian sources confirm that the strikes inflicted significant damage on centrifuge halls and enrichment pipelines at its Natanz facility. However, Iranian officials insist the nuclear programme remains intact. Iran’s nuclear infrastructure includes multiple deeply buried sites – some more than 500 metres (550 yards) underground and spread across distances exceeding 1,000km (620 miles). As a result, the total destruction of the programme by air strikes alone in this initial phase appears unlikely.

Iranian officials have long warned that any direct military aggression on their territory by Israel would cross a red line, and they have promised severe retaliation. Now, with blood spilled on its soil and key targets destroyed, Khamenei faces enormous internal and external pressure to respond. The elimination of multiple high-ranking military officials in a single night has further intensified the demand for a multifaceted response.

Iran’s reply so far has taken the form of another wave of drone attacks, similar to those launched in April and October – most of which were intercepted by Israeli and Jordanian defences.

If Iran does not engage with the US at the upcoming talks in Oman on Sunday regarding a possible nuclear deal, the failure of diplomacy could mark the start of a sustained campaign. The Iranian government has stated that it does not view the Israeli operation as an isolated incident, but rather as the beginning of a longer conflict. Referring to it as a “war of attrition” – a term also used to describe Iran’s drawn-out war with Iraq in the 1980s – officials have indicated the confrontation is likely to unfold over weeks or even months.

While retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Israeli targets are likely to continue, many now anticipate that Iran could also target US military bases in the Gulf, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and even Jordan. Such an escalation would likely draw US forces directly into the conflict, implicate critical regional infrastructure and disrupt global oil supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. That, in turn, could trigger a steep rise in energy prices and send global markets spiralling – dragging in the interests of nearly every major power.

Even if an immediate, proportionate military response proves difficult, Iran is expected to act across several domains, including cyberattacks, proxy warfare and political manoeuvring. Among the political options reportedly under consideration is a full withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Iran has long used the NPT framework to assert that its nuclear programme is peaceful. Exiting the treaty would signal a significant policy shift. Additionally, there is growing speculation within Iran’s political circles that the religious decree issued by Khamenei banning the development and use of nuclear weapons may be reconsidered. If that prohibition is lifted, Iran could pursue a nuclear deterrent openly for the first time.

Whether Israel’s strikes succeeded in delaying Iran’s nuclear ambitions – or instead provoked Tehran to accelerate them – remains uncertain. What is clear is that the confrontation has entered a new phase. Should Iran exit the NPT and begin advancing its nuclear programme without the constraints of international agreements, some may argue that Israel’s campaign – intended to stop a bomb – may instead end up accelerating its creation.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

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