Middle East

What would an Israel-Iran war mean for the global economy? | Israel-Iran conflict News

As Israel and Iran exchange deadly salvoes for a fourth day, there are growing concerns that the conflict will spread across one of the world’s key oil- and gas-producing regions. Equity markets initially were roiled after Israel’s surprise attack on Friday but have since stabilised.

A day after Israel killed several of Iran’s top military commanders and nuclear scientists and damaged some of its nuclear sites, Israel then hit Iran’s fossil fuel sector on Saturday with Iranian state media reporting a blaze at the South Pars gasfield. More than 220 people have been killed in the Israeli attacks, including at least 70 women and children, according to Iranian authorities.

Iran responded with a barrage of ballistic missile and drone strikes, a small percentage of which succeeded in penetrating Israeli defences, killing at least 24 people.

On his Truth Social platform, United States President Donald Trump warned Tehran that the next “already planned attacks” would be “even more brutal”, adding: “Iran must make a deal [on its nuclear programme] before nothing is left.”

As the conflict between the Middle East’s two most powerful militaries spirals towards a full-fledged war, financial markets and the aviation sector are taking a hit. Analysts are watching oil prices, and investors are turning to safe havens like gold.

And a full-blown war could make things even worse – much worse, experts warned.

What has happened to the price of oil?

Brent crude, the global benchmark, rallied to $74.60 per barrel early on Monday.

That marked an almost 7 percent increase from Thursday, the day before Israel launched its surprise attack.

Much of the world’s oil and other key commodities such as natural gas pass through busy sea lanes in the Middle East, including the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait, a narrow waterway separating Iran from the Gulf states, links the Arabian Sea to the Indian Ocean.

It is a conduit for one-third of the world’s seaborne oil supplies, channelling roughly 21 million barrels every day.

At its narrowest point, it is 33km (21 miles) wide. Shipping lanes in the waterway are even narrower, making them vulnerable to attack.

The conflict between Israel and Iran has revived a decades-old question of whether Tehran will close the maritime chokepoint, triggering an oil price rally.

Quoting key conservative lawmaker Esmail Kosari, the Iranian news agency IRINN reported that Tehran is considering closing the strait as the conflict with Israel intensifies.

According to Goldman Sachs, a worst-case scenario involving blockades in the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices above $100 per barrel.

Still, during the Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988, in which both countries targeted commercial vessels in the Gulf, Hormuz was never completely closed.

What’s more, attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz would likely disrupt Tehran’s own exports, especially to China, cutting off valuable revenue.

According to Hamzeh Al Gaaod, an economic analyst at TS Lombard, a strategy and political research firm, “the repercussions to closing off the strait would be severe for Tehran itself.”

Have global inflation rates been affected?

When oil prices rise, the cost of production also goes up. This is eventually passed on to consumers, especially for energy-intensive goods like food, clothing and chemicals.

Oil-importing countries around the world could experience higher inflation and slower economic growth if the conflict persists.

Looking ahead, analysts warned that central banks would face reduced policy flexibility in trying to control rising prices.

“Central bankers from the G7 are currently on an [interest rate] cutting cycle, and so will be worried about a potential energy price shock,” Al Gaaod told Al Jazeera.

The Bank of England has recently slashed the United Kingdom’s base interest rate to 4.25 percent although the US Federal Reserve has held off on cutting rates in the wake of Trump’s tariffs, imposed on almost all countries since he returned to power in January.

How have markets responded?

Wall Street has taken a hit. On Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices shed 1.1 and 1.3 percent, respectively. In the Middle East, Egypt’s benchmark EGX 30 index fell 7.7 percent on Sunday while the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange 35 Index dropped 1.5 percent.

European equities also drifted down on the news of Israel’s attacks. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 fell a little more than 1.1 percent at the end of last week while the UK’s FTSE 100 ended 0.5 percent lower on Friday.

Still, some UK companies rallied. BAE Systems, a defence contractor, was up almost 3 percent on Friday, reflecting concerns that tensions could escalate.

In the US, share prices of military suppliers, including Lockheed, Northrop Grumman and RTX, also rose.

Elsewhere, oil companies BP and Shell gained in value with the former closing nearly 2 percent higher and the latter closing at just more than 1 percent higher.

The price of gold was also trading about 1 percent higher on Friday at $3,426 an ounce, close to the record high of $3,500 it hit in April.

On Monday, investors tempered some of their risk-off positioning with oil and gold prices falling and stock prices rising.

“It seems that markets are anticipating the conflict will remain relatively contained. Crucially, Iran has not attacked any US military assets in the region,” Al Gaaod said.

What has the impact been on the aviation sector with airspace closures?

Several airlines have suspended or cancelled flights in the Middle East, and some countries have shut their airspace.

Here is a list of some suspended and rerouted flights:

  • Emirates, the Middle East’s largest airline, said it has suspended flights to and from Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Iran until June 30 with flights to Lebanon halted until Sunday.
  • Etihad Airways has cancelled all flights between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv until Sunday. The airline is also rerouting several other services and has advised customers to await updates regarding their flight status.
  • Qatar Airways has temporarily cancelled flights to Iran, Iraq and Syria due to ongoing tensions with passengers advised to check the status of their flights before travel.

Elsewhere, Iran’s official news agency IRNA reported that aviation authorities have shut down the country’s airspace until further notice.

On Friday, Iraq also closed its airspace and suspended all traffic at its airports, Iraqi state media reported. Eastern Iraq is home to one of the world’s busiest air corridors. Dozens of flights cross there at any one moment, flying between Europe and the Gulf – many on routes from Asia to Europe.

Jordan’s civil aviation authority said it had “temporarily” closed Jordanian airspace “in anticipation of any dangers resulting from the escalation happening in the region”.

For Al Gaaod, “there may be short-term disruption for Middle East tourism but only for a month or so. I suspect tourism will bounce back.”

He made a similar prediction about global financial markets: “So long as strikes remain contained, I think equity prices will continue to recover from last week.”

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Little sign of restraint as Israel and Iran continue to swap deadly strikes | Israel-Iran conflict News

Israel and Iran have launched more strikes on one another overnight and into the morning as the military confrontation between the two traditional adversaries persists.

Iranian attacks on Israel on Monday morning killed at least eight people and wounded dozens, officials reported, while Tehran said Israeli attacks overnight hit military and civilian targets.

The mutual strikes pushed the death toll from four days of open conflict between the foes close to 250.

Raised rhetoric emanating from both countries following the strikes suggested there is little prospect of the hostilities halting soon, with the risk of an escalation into a wider regional conflict persisting.

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Damaged buildings at the Bid Kaneh missile facility, southwest of Tehran, Iran, on June 15, 2025 [Handout/Maxar Technologies via AFP]

Iran announced it had launched some 100 missiles and pledged further retaliation for Israel’s sweeping attacks on its military and nuclear infrastructure, which have killed at least 224 people in the country since Friday.

In Israel, state broadcaster Israeli Army Radio reported that eight people were killed – five in the central part and three in the port city of Haifa.

That takes the total death toll in Israel to more than 20 since it launched air attacks on Iran four days ago. More than 300 others are reported wounded.

A branch of the United States Embassy in Tel Aviv sustained “minor damage” as a result of the attack, US Ambassador Mike Huckabee said.

Earlier, Israel carried out further strikes on Iran. The Israeli military said its jets struck several command centres in Tehran belonging to Quds Force, an elite arm of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that conducts military and intelligence operations outside Iran.

“In these command centers, Quds operatives advanced terrorist attacks against the State of Israel using the proxies of the Iranian Regime in the Middle East,” it wrote in a post on X.

On Sunday, Iran said Israel had struck oil refineries, killed the IRGC’s intelligence chief and hit population centres in intensive aerial attacks.

‘Make a deal’

Much of the world has urged restraint since the conflict broke out on Friday when Israel launched an attack on Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities, killing military commanders and scientists.

Israel said the action was necessary to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons that would threaten its survival.

Iran retaliated with ballistic missiles, and the countries have been engaged in an exchange of strikes since.

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday he hoped the adversaries would “make a deal”, but added that they might have to “fight it out” first.

A staunch ally of Israel, Trump has maintained erratic messaging since the strikes began, raising concern that the conflict could escalate.

Iran has said the US is complicit in the Israeli military action, and suggested it could target US forces in Syria and elsewhere in retaliation.

Trump has insisted that Washington has “nothing to do” with Israel’s bombing campaign, but also threatened to unleash “the full strength and might” of the US military if Iran attacked its interests in the Middle East.

epa11712902 Israeli outgoing Foreign Minister and new Defense Minister Israel Katz speaks during the Ministerial change ceremony at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Jerusalem, 10 November 2024. The Israeli prime minister appointed Israel Katz to the post of Defense Minister and Gideon Saar as new Foreign Minister after firing Yoav Gallant on 05 November. EPA-EFE/ABIR SULTAN
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz warned on Monday that residents in Tehran would ‘pay the price’ [EPA]

That has helped encourage a rise in the hardline rhetoric emerging from Tel Aviv and Tehran, which continued on Monday, suggesting there is little chance either side is ready to step back.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz warned on Monday that residents in Tehran would “pay the price” for Iran’s killing of Israeli civilians in its overnight missile attacks.

“The boastful dictator from Tehran has turned into a cowardly murderer, deliberately firing at Israel’s civilian home front in an attempt to deter the (Israeli military) from continuing the offensive that is crippling his capabilities,” Katz wrote on his Telegram channel. “The residents of Tehran will pay the price – and soon.”

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, meanwhile, urged people to put aside differences and unite against Israel.

“Every difference, issue, and problem that has existed must be put aside today, and we must stand strong against this genocidal criminal aggression with unity and coherence,” he said, addressing parliament.

Israel has suggested that regime change in Iran could be one result of the conflict, hoping to press opposition to the regime in Tehran to rise.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran’s response will stop when Israel halts its attacks.

The IRGC warned through a statement to the official IRNA news agency, “effective, targeted and more devastating operations against the vital targets” in Israel “will continue until its complete destruction”.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called for Iranians to unite (West Asia News Agency)

Elijah Magnier, a military and political analyst, told Al Jazeera that few signs of a let up have been seen.

“I think it’s going to continue escalating because we are just in the first days of the war,” he said. “The Israeli officials, the prime minister and the army, have all warned Israeli society that this war is going to be heavy and … the price is going to be extremely high.”

Meanwhile, Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Al Jazeera that Iran would likely welcome an end to hostilities in the non-too-distant future.

“I don’t sense they have the confidence that they can stay in this game for long. Remember, Iran is alone. It’s got no friends, it’s on its own. Israel’s got the US, most of Europe and plenty of other friends … and that should obviously be of concern for Tehran.”

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Why India refused to join SCO condemnation of Israel’s attacks on Iran | Israel-Iran conflict News

New Delhi, India — India has distanced itself from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s (SCO) condemnation of Israel’s ongoing attacks on Iran, signalling a potential rift in the influential Eurasian political bloc over the conflict.

World leaders have repeatedly called for de-escalation amid Israel’s unprecedented attacks on its regional rival, Iran, which threaten to destabilise the region. Last Friday, the latest round of fighting began after Israel launched attacks on Iran’s military and nuclear sites.

This follows two rounds of direct military conflict between Iran and Israel in 2024, which were triggered by Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian retaliation.

Iranian authorities say Israeli attacks since Friday have targeted residential and military areas in Tehran as well as many cities across the country, killing at least 80 people, including civilians. Several Iranian nuclear scientists and university professors were killed along with several top-ranking commanders of the Iranian armed forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Israeli attacks on Saturday hit refineries, power stations and oil reserves across Iran. Tehran has retaliated by launching hundreds of missiles and drones at the Israeli cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa, killing at least 13 people and injuring dozens. Meanwhile, Tehran has also paused nuclear negotiations with the United States.

So, why did India refuse to take part in the discussions or endorse the SCO’s position on Israel’s attacks? Is India backing Israel? And what is at stake for these countries?

What did the SCO say?

The SCO, a political and security bloc founded in 2001, includes China, Belarus, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Iran is the most recent entrant, having joined the SCO under India’s chairmanship in 2023.

On Saturday, the SCO, currently chaired by China, said its member states “express serious concern” over the escalating Iran-Israel tensions and “strongly condemn the military strikes carried out by Israel” on the territory of Iran.

The SCO statement further noted that Israel’s “aggressive actions against civilian targets, including energy and transport infrastructure, which have resulted in civilian casualties, are a gross violation of international law and the United Nations Charter”.

“[Israeli attacks] constitute an infringement on Iran’s sovereignty, cause damage to regional and international security, and pose serious risks to global peace and stability,” the statement added, extending condolences to Iran’s government and people.

“The SCO member states firmly advocate for the resolution of the situation surrounding Iran’s nuclear program exclusively through peaceful, political, and diplomatic means,” the statement noted.

India’s ‘delicate balancing act’

After Israel’s initial strikes on Tehran, Indian Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar held a phone conversation with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, in which he “conveyed the deep concern of the international community at the turn of events”.

Jaishankar “urged avoidance of any escalatory steps and an early return to diplomacy,” according to India’s Ministry of External Affairs. The ministry also underlined its concerns in a separate statement on Friday.

“We are closely monitoring the evolving situation, including reports related to attacks on nuclear sites,” the Indian Foreign Ministry said, urging both sides to use existing channels of dialogue and diplomacy to “work towards a de-escalation of the situation”.

“India enjoys close and friendly relations with both the countries and stands ready to extend all possible support,” the statement noted.

Shanthie D’Souza, a senior research fellow at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, told Al Jazeera, “Unlike other SCO nations, India is in a unique position given that it has to maintain defence ties with Israel and its economic ties with Iran.”

India is Israel’s largest weapons buyer, and in 2024, Indian weapons firms also sold Israel rockets and explosives amid the war in Gaza, an Al Jazeera investigation revealed. At the same time, India has been developing Iran’s Chabahar Port as a gateway for its exports to Central Asia and Afghanistan.

“India has maintained a delicate balancing act [in the latest round of fighting between Israel and Iran],” D’Souza said.

After the SCO statement condemning the Israeli strikes on Iran, New Delhi said it did not participate in discussions about the statement.

“The overall position of India as stated above was communicated to other SCO members,” the Foreign Ministry said, referring to its earlier statement for India’s official position.

Is India backing Israel?

Not explicitly. But by distancing itself from the bloc’s stance, New Delhi has weakened the force of the SCO’s condemnation of Israel’s attacks on Iran.

A day before distancing itself from the SCO statement, India abstained from voting in the United Nations General Assembly on a draft resolution that demanded an “immediate, unconditional and permanent” ceasefire in Gaza.

To Kabir Taneja, the deputy director of the strategic studies programme at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation, India’s abstention at the UN was perplexing. He suggested that it may have been influenced by India’s desire to maintain good relations with the US, noting how India is close to a trade agreement with Washington – a deal it is trying to clinch before US President Donald Trump’s threatened 27 percent tariff on Indian goods is lifted in early July.

National interests aside, Taneja noted that New Delhi’s distancing from the SCO on the Israel-Iran tensions also “reflects on the construct of the SCO, where India is sort of an outlier inside”.

While China and Russia are close to Iran, Taneja said, given India’s relationships with the US and Israel, “it would have been very difficult [for India] to subscribe to SCO’s particular wording and statement”.

Is US pressure on Iran threatening India’s regional ambitions?

Before Trump imposed sanctions following the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2017, Iran was India’s third-largest oil supplier.

In February, after Trump returned for a second term in office, he doubled down on economic pressure tactics to corner Iran by suspending sanction waivers “that provide Iran any degree of economic or financial relief, including those related to Iran’s Chabahar port project”.

The port would allow India to bypass its rival, Pakistan, by trading with landlocked Afghanistan and Central Asia via Iran. India had secured a sanctions waiver from the US during the first Trump administration for work related to Chabahar.

Now, Trump’s sanctions put New Delhi’s multimillion-dollar investment in the strategically located maritime facility at risk.

But India’s interest in maintaining strong ties with Iran goes beyond just the port project. Taneja noted that India values Iran’s geographic position because it provides it with access to Afghanistan and Central Asia – regions important for India’s trade, security, and influence.

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Why has Israel put West Bank under lockdown as it bombs Iran? | Israel-Palestine conflict News

Israel has placed the occupied West Bank under lockdown, sealing the entrances of cities and villages with iron gates and concrete barriers, as its forces bomb Iran.

The Israeli siege continued for a third day on Sunday, as the military intensifies its operations in the Palestinian territory, where it has killed at least 943 Palestinians, more than 200 of them minors, according to the United Nations, since the war on Gaza started on October 7, 2023.

Palestinians in the West Bank say the Israeli actions are aimed at annexing their lands and expanding illegal settlements. An estimated three million Palestinians live under Israeli military occupation in the West Bank.

Missiles launched from Iran towards Israel
Missiles launched from Iran towards Israel are seen from Tubas, occupied West Bank [Raneen Sawafta/Reuters]

Since January this year, there have been ongoing Israeli operations in three refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarem areas of the West Bank. At least 137 Palestinians, including 27 children, have been killed this year in the West Bank, according to the UN.

But in recent days, as Israel strikes Iran and the latter retaliates, the West Bank is under a lockdown.

Here’s what you need to know:

What is Israel doing?

The Israeli military is applying a lockdown.

In addition to closing up cities and villages, it is severely restricting the movement of Palestinians by setting up checkpoints, according to Al Jazeera correspondent Nida Ibrahim, limiting entry and exit to areas.

The military has increased its presence in the West Bank cities like el-Bireh and Ramallah, according to Wafa, the Palestinian news agency. Strict checkpoints are also impeding movement in Nablus, Hebron, Qalqilya, and the Jordan Valley, where the checkpoints have disrupted the work of farmers and the transport of their produce.

“The ongoing closures have paralysed daily life across the West Bank, severely limiting mobility, restricting access to essential services, and impacting economic activity,” Wafa reported.

Palestinians say attempts to approach the checkpoints have been met with live fire from Israeli soldiers in some places, while in others, stun grenades and tear gas were deployed.

There are numerous reports of injuries. In the Tulkarem refugee camp, for example, a 16-year-old was reportedly shot in the leg by Israeli forces. They have also conducted night raids in the West Bank, arresting at least 15 people, according to Wafa.

Ambulances are struggling to reach the wounded as their movement is also being impeded.

“Even when we are granted Israeli military permission to move, we are detained at checkpoints for three to four hours before being allowed through,” said Fayez Abdel Jabbar, an ambulance driver. “This [Saturday] morning, one woman stayed three hours at one checkpoint. The only way we can function now is by transferring patients from one ambulance to another at these checkpoints.”

Even before the recent Israeli action, pregnant Palestinian women reported that checkpoints could be a matter of “life and death”.

Meanwhile, in several areas across the West Bank, Israeli soldiers have also expelled dozens of families from their homes and turned them into military positions.

The gates of an Israeli checkpoint are closed to vehicles in Deir Sharaf, west of Nablus, in the occupied West Bank on June 13, 2025. (Photo by JAAFAR ASHTIYEH / AFP)
The gates of an Israeli checkpoint are closed to vehicles in Deir Sharaf, west of Nablus in the occupied West Bank, on June 13, 2025 [Jaafar Ashtiyeh/AFP]

Why is the West Bank under siege?

Palestinians say it is being done to control them.

The Israeli government ramped up settlements and annexation of the West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem in 2024, according to a report by the UN Human Rights Office in March this year.

An Israeli poster describes the lockdown as preemptive, saying movement will be restricted until further notice. It reads: “Terror only brings death and destruction.”

“Palestinians say they are the ones under attack,” Ibrahim reported.

Qassim Awwad of the Palestine Liberation Organization’s (PLO) settlement unit said, since October 7, 2023, Israel has increased the checkpoints and barriers in the West Bank from 600 to 900. “Now they are using this time [war with Iran] to increase the lockdown on Palestinians, turning them into isolated cantons separated from one another,” he said.

Meanwhile, Israel on Sunday killed at least 23 people in Gaza, including 11 waiting to get aid. Since October 7, 2023, Israel has killed 55,297 Palestinians and wounded 128,426 others, according to Gaza’s Ministry of Health.

ISRAEL-PALESTINIANS/WEST BANK-NABLUS-RAID
An Israeli soldier takes part in a raid in Nablus, West Bank, June 10, 2025 [Raneen Sawafta/Reuters]

What about settler violence?

It goes on.

“Settlers continue attacking Palestinian homes and properties,” Al Jazeera’s Ibrahim reported. “Others exploit the siege to establish and expand new illegal settlement outposts.”

In the city of Sderot last Thursday, Israeli cabinet ministers and the government’s coalition partners held a conference where they pledged to annex the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, according to Israeli media reports.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi spoke in favour of annexation, while Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu reportedly called out for the same in Syria and Lebanon as well.

“Do we want Judea and Samaria [the West Bank]? Do we want Syria? Do we want Lebanon? Do we want Gaza?” Eliyahu reportedly shouted to a crowd that responded in the affirmative.

Are Iran’s retaliatory attacks affecting Palestinians?

The night skies of Palestine, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan have been illuminated by the exchange of missiles between Iran and Israel since Friday.

As Israel tries to shoot down the Iranian missiles, some of their remnants have landed in the West Bank, where, unlike Israel, the residents have no access to bomb shelters or protection. Dozens of Palestinians in the territory have been wounded by intercepted missiles.

“Palestinians say they are caught between the Iranian projectiles and Israeli missiles intercepting them,” Ibrahim said.

What is the PLO doing?

“The Palestinian government says it is working to ensure the entry of food and fuel,” Ibrahim added. “With Israel controlling almost every aspect of their lives, Palestinians fear their governments’ ability to assist them is severely limited.”

ISRAEL-PALESTINIANS/WEST BANK-NABLUS-RAID
A Palestinian man raises his hands as Israeli soldiers aim their weapons during a raid in Nablus, West Bank, June 10, 2025 [Raneen Sawafta/Reuters]

Most of the global attention in the last few days has been on the exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran.

But UNRWA, the UN agency focused on Palestinian refugees, said in a statement on Friday that the West Bank is “not a warzone”.

“It is governed by international standards and codes of conduct for law enforcement, which Israeli forces have an obligation to uphold. Law enforcement exists for the purpose of safeguarding human rights, not violating them. It should seek to protect the most vulnerable, not further victimise them. Above all, it should preserve human dignity and life,” Roland Friedrich, director of UNRWA affairs in the West Bank, posted on X.



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What is Iran’s IRGC and who has Israel killed? | Military News

Israel and Iran are locked in an escalating exchange of missiles, targeting each other’s security and economic infrastructure while also striking population centres.

The current escalation began after Israel launched strikes on Friday morning involving 200 fighter jets that hit dozens of nuclear, military and infrastructure targets across Iran, including the country’s main nuclear facility in Natanz.

The strikes came amid ongoing negotiations between Iran and the United States, Israel’s key ally, over Tehran’s nuclear programme, which Iran says is solely for civilian purposes.

Israel’s first wave of attacks killed at least four senior commanders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as well as several nuclear scientists. Israel claims these attacks are aimed at crippling Iran’s ability to build a nuclear bomb — and to militarily respond through the sword arm of its security forces, the IRGC.

But who exactly has Israel targeted, and what is the IRGC?

Who has been killed?

The attacks on Friday killed several senior military leaders, including:

  • Hossein Salami, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
  • Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of Iran’s Armed Forces
  • Gholamali Rashid, commander of Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters
  • Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC Aerospace Forces
INTERACTIVE-Iran’s military structure-JUNE 14, 2025-1749981920
(Al Jazeera)

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has appointed Abdolrahim Mousavi to replace Bagheri as chief of staff of the armed forces, Ahmad Vahidi to take Salami’s position as boss of the IRGC, and Majid Mousavi to replace Hajizadeh as head of the IRGC air force.

Separately, state-run news outlet Nour News said Khamenei’s senior adviser Ali Shamkhani was “critically injured”. Shamkhani was leading Iran’s diplomatic efforts with the US.

Six prominent Iranian nuclear scientists were also killed.

What is the IRGC?

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a branch of Iran’s military, established after the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Operating alongside the regular army, it answers directly to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and plays a central role in Iran’s defence, foreign operations, and regional influence.

With around 190,000 active personnel (and over 600,000 including reserves), the IRGC oversees Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programmes and supports proxy groups across the Middle East.

It was designated a foreign “terrorist” organisation by the US in 2019 – marking the first time the US had used the designation against a part of another government.

Beyond its military role, the IRGC is deeply embedded in Iran’s political and economic structures.

Two IRGC officials posing
The now-deceased head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ aerospace division, General Amir Ali Hajizadeh (left), stands next to the late head of the IRGC, Hossein Salami, attending the unveiling of Iranian-made ‘Fattah’ hypersonic missile in Tehran, Iran, on June 6, 2023 [Handout photo from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) official website, Sepha News]

What locations did Israel attack?

Israeli strikes on Friday targeted the following confirmed locations:

  • The capital, Tehran, and military sites in the surrounding area.
  • The city of Natanz, where explosions were reported at the main uranium enrichment facility.
  • The city of Tabriz, where explosions have been reported near a nuclear research centre and two military bases.
  • The city of Isfahan, south of Tehran.
  • The city of Arak, southwest of Tehran.
  • The city of Kermanshah, west of Tehran, where an underground facility storing ballistic missiles was hit near the Iraqi border.

Iran says Israel’s initial strikes killed at least 80 people, and wounded more than 320 others. Since Saturday, at least 480 more have been injured. Those killed include 20 children.

A firefighter calls out his colleagues at the scene of an explosion in a residence compound in northern Tehran
A firefighter calls out to his colleagues at the scene of an explosion in a residential compound in northern Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13, 2025 [Vahid Salemi/AP]

Natanz nuclear facility damaged

One of Israel’s main targets was the Natanz nuclear facility – the largest uranium enrichment site in Iran, located in Isfahan province.

The above-ground section of a pilot fuel enrichment plant, where uranium was enriched up to 60 percent, was destroyed, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Key electricity infrastructure, such as the substation, main power building, emergency supply, and backup generators, was also destroyed. There was no direct hit on the underground cascade hall, but the power loss may have damaged centrifuges used for uranium enrichment.

Radiation levels outside the facility remain normal, though there is radiological and chemical contamination inside, which are manageable with proper protection.

“At present, the Iranian authorities are informing us of attacks on two other facilities, namely the Fordow fuel enrichment plant and at Isfahan,” the IAEA’s chief, Rafael Grossi, told the United Nations Security Council on Friday.

INTERACTIVE-Iran’s military structure-JUNE 14, 2025 copy-1749981913

Israeli attacks on Iran’s oil and gas

On Saturday, Iran partially suspended gas production at its largest field, South Pars, following an Israeli strike that triggered a fire.

The fire, now extinguished, broke out in one of four units in phase 14 of the gasfield, halting 12 million cubic metres of gas production. Located in Bushehr province, South Pars is key to Iran’s output and is shared with Qatar, which calls it the North Field.

Iran has also confirmed an Israeli attack on the Fajr Jam gas plant about 65 km (40 miles) northwest of South Pars.

INTERACTIVE - Israel attacks world's largest gas field - JUNE15, 2025-1749983731
(Al Jazeera)

Iran fires missiles at Israel

In response to Israel’s strikes, Iran has launched drones and ballistic missiles at Israel, with some hitting targets on the ground.

The death toll from Iran’s attacks on Israel has risen to 10, with more than 200 wounded, according to Israeli authorities. Several people remain missing as a barrage of dozens of Iranian missiles lit up the skies over Jerusalem and Tel Aviv overnight.

Iran has developed a range of ballistic and cruise missiles over the past three decades. The graphic below shows some of Iran’s most prominent missiles and their ranges.

INTERACTIVE_IRAN-MISSILE_MARCH6_2025 (2)-1741262892

 

Israel has intercepted many of the Iranian missiles fired towards its territory, but not all of them, with some causing major damage and casualties across the country.

The Israeli air defence relies largely on what is known as the Iron Dome system, which is equipped with a radar that detects an incoming projectile, as well as its speed and direction.

Other systems intercept medium and long-range missiles. The David’s Sling intercepts missiles ranging between 40km (25 miles) and 300km (186 miles). The Arrow System intercepts missiles with a range of up to 2,400km (1,491 miles).

Israel's defence system
(Al Jazeera)

Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei said Israel “must expect severe punishment” for killing several top-level military commanders and scientists.

In a message on state TV, he said Israel “should not think that it is over because they attacked and it is finished”.

“No. They started this and initiated the war. We won’t allow them to escape unscathed from this great crime they have committed,” Khamenei said.

FILE PHOTO: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting in Tehran, Iran, May 20, 2025. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS PICTURE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY./File Photo
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting in Tehran, Iran, May 20, 2025 [Reuters]

 

Following decades of enmity and conflict by proxy, it is the first time that Israel and Iran have traded fire with such intensity, with fears of a prolonged conflict engulfing the region.

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Israel-Iran conflict: List of key events, June 15, 2025 | Israel-Iran conflict News

Here are the key events on day three of the Israel-Iran conflict.

Here’s where things stand on Sunday, June 15:

Fighting

  • Iran fired two separate salvoes of missiles and drones against Israel, including one that struck the Israeli port city of Haifa. At least 15 people were injured.
  • Israel also fired a barrage of missiles against Iran, targeting several locations, including the capital Tehran, a Foreign Ministry building there, a military base of the Defence Ministry in Isfahan, and an aerial refuelling aircraft at Mashhad Airport.
  • In Israel, rescue workers were searching for survivors in the rubble from the previous night’s wave of Iranian strikes. The hardest hit area was the town of Bat Yam, where dozens of buildings were damaged.

Casualties and disruption

  • The Iranian Health Ministry said that at least 224 people were killed and 1,481 were wounded, since Israel attacked Iran.
  • Overnight, Iran struck the Israeli port city of Haifa and neighbouring Tamra, where at least four women were killed.
  • Since the start of the conflict on Thursday, at least 13 people have been killed and 380 have been wounded in Israel.
  • The Israeli Civil Aviation Authority has announced a complete closure of airspace and airports. Iranian airspace is also closed.

Diplomacy

  • Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran does not seek to expand the conflict to neighbouring countries unless forced to.
  • Araghchi also said Iran has “solid evidence” of the support provided by the United States to Israel’s attacks.
  • Iran’s top diplomat later said: “We will prepare the ground for a return to diplomacy and negotiations if the Israeli aggression stops. We hope that tomorrow’s IAEA governors’ meeting will condemn the aggression against our nuclear facilities.”
  • Talking to Fox News, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seemed to clearly confirm that, saying he informed US President Donald Trump ahead of launching the attacks.
  • Netanyahu also projected that regime change in Iran could be a result of Israel’s attacks.
  • Trump warned Tehran not to widen its retaliation to include US targets and didn’t rule out more direct US involvement beyond the vast arsenal and intelligence the US provides to Israel.
  • Contrarily, the US president also claimed peace could be reached “soon”, suggesting that many diplomatic meetings were taking place.
  • He also said he would be “open” to his Russian counterpart President Vladimir Putin serving as a mediator.
  • French President Emmanuel Macron rebuked that idea, saying it would not be a good idea to have Putin, embroiled in his own war in Ukraine, as a mediator in the Israel-Iran conflict.
  • European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has called a videoconference of EU foreign ministers for Tuesday to discuss the Middle East crisis.
  • Hopes for a diplomatic solution seem distant for now, though they will no doubt be high on the agenda of the Group of Seven summit beginning Monday in Canada.

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Who are Iran’s new top military leaders after Israel’s assassinations? | Israel-Iran conflict News

Tehran, Iran – Iran has promoted several commanders to the top of its military leadership after Israel killed their predecessors in a series of air attacks.

The leadership of Iran’s General Staff of the Armed Forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) has shifted significantly as the country defends against Israeli attacks and launches retaliatory strikes.

Let’s take a look at which commanders were killed, who replaced them, and what this means for the deadly conflict going forward.

How senior were the killed commanders?

Some of Iran’s top military leaders were killed during Israel’s multipronged assault, which started early Friday.

Iran’s highest-ranking military commander, General Mohammad Bagheri, was among the casualties. The veteran of the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s was chief of staff of the armed forces and only answered to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Other members of the General Staff of the Armed Forces were also among the dead, including Deputy for Operations Mehdi Rabani and Deputy for Intelligence Gholamreza Mehrabi.

The IRGC also lost a considerable number of top figures in its command chain, chief among them being Hossein Salami, the leader of the force.

The elite aerospace division of the IRGC, which is tasked with developing Iran’s sprawling missile programme, confirmed the killing of eight senior commanders who were convening in an underground bunker in Tehran.

Longtime aerospace chief Ali Akbar Hajizadeh was among those killed, as were commanders leading the missile defence and drone wings of the force.

Who are the new commanders?

Khamenei tapped Abdolrahim Mousavi, the commander-in-chief of Iran’s army, to become the new chief of staff of the armed forces.

The 65-year-old brigadier general has now become the first army commander to assume the position – previous figures who held the post came from within the IRGC.

Mousavi is also a war veteran and completed his military training and studies at the Supreme National Defense University in the aftermath of Iran’s Islamic revolution of 1979.

To lead the IRGC, Khamenei selected Mohammad Pakpour, a veteran commander who started and made his career within the elite force. He led the IRGC’s armoured units and then a combat division during the war with Iraq in the 1980s.

(FILES) Commander of the ground forces of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Brigadier General Mohammad Pakpour, attends a military parade in Tehran, on April 17, 2024.
General Mohammad Pakpour is the new head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [File: AFP]

Pakpour led the IRGC ground forces for 16 years before he was appointed commander-in-chief. He was also a deputy for operations at the IRGC and used to lead two major headquarters of the force.

Iran’s supreme leader also promoted Amir Hatami to the rank of major-general, appointing him as commander of the army.

The 59-year-old is another career military man who rose through the ranks during the Iraq invasion, particularly after Operation Mersad. That was when the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), who had helped win the revolution but later fell out with the theocratic establishment, led a ground assault on Iranian soil with Iraqi forces – and were dealt a resounding defeat.

Brigadier General Majid Mousavi is also the new aerospace chief of the IRGC. He is believed to have been a prominent figure working to develop Iran’s ballistic missiles, drone systems, and Western-criticised space launches. He also worked closely with Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, known as the “father of Iran’s missile programme”, who died in an explosion at a missile depot in 2011 that Iran ruled as accidental.

All newly promoted commanders have proclaimed their commitment to the retaliation against Israel, with slogans on banners across the country reading: “You started the war, we will finish it”.

Hatami said in a statement that, under his command, the army will “deal decisive and effective blows to the fake and child-killing Zionist regime”, referring to Israel.

Continuation

The new commanders have overseen the launch of hundreds of explosives-laden drones and ballistic and cruise missiles fired at Israel over the past three nights, and signalled readiness for a prolonged campaign.

Iran’s projectiles have so far hit military bases and residential buildings, killing at least 14 people and wounding dozens more.

Commanders in Tehran also started hitting Israel’s energy infrastructure overnight into Sunday after Israeli warplanes targeted Iran’s oil and gas facilities, petrochemical, steel and automotive plants, as well as many residential buildings.

Iranian authorities have said more than 220 people, including at least 25 children, were among the victims of Israeli strikes across Iran.

Sounds of explosions continuously rang out across Tehran on Sunday as the Israeli military bombed Niavaran to the north, Saadat Abad to the west, and the Valiasr and Hafte Tir neighbourhoods in downtown Tehran.

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Analysis: What options does Iran have in its conflict against Israel? | Israel-Iran conflict News

Iran has now withstood three days of Israeli attacks, which have killed more than 120 Iranians, including several members of its military leadership.

But its own response has been to hit back in a manner that Israel has never had to experience – with Iranian missiles causing devastating damage in Israel’s biggest cities – including Tel Aviv and Haifa.

How much damage both sides have caused – and in many cases what sites have exactly been hit – is unclear, with accurate facts hard to come by due to the information war that has accompanied the military conflict.

It is also hard to know how many missiles and munitions both sides still have in their stockpiles, and how long Israel and Iran can sustain this fight.

What we do know is that Iran is believed to have the largest missile programme in the Middle East, with thousands of ballistic missiles available with varying ranges and speeds. At the current rate, Iran could likely carry on attacking Israel for weeks – enough time for Israel to experience significant damage, which its population is not used to after years of only really being exposed to attacks from weaker armed groups in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Yemen.

Iran is also revealing how effective its more advanced missiles can be. The Haj Qassem missile, used for the first time against Israel on Sunday, was able to evade Israeli air defences, and footage from Israel clearly shows the difference in power and speed compared to the older missiles that Iran had been using in its earlier barrages.

Of course, Iran does not have an unlimited amount of these more advanced missiles, and ultimately will have to ration their use, but coupled with its more standard missiles, and thousands of drones, Iran has enough military ability to cause Israel damage – and confound those who believe that Iran does not have the strength to continue the fight in the short term.

Avoiding a US fight

Israel’s Iron Dome is being severely tested by Iran’s missile barrages, but it has been able to lean on its principal ally, the United States, to provide assistance in intercepting the attacks.

The US, led by President Donald Trump, has insisted, however, that it is not a party to the current conflict between Israel and Iran, and has threatened that the consequences will be severe if Iran does attack US interests in the region, which include military bases dotted throughout the Middle East.

For Iran, any attack on US bases or personnel is a worst-case scenario that it wants to avoid. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has typically made cautious moves and will not want a direct fight with the US, or to give an excuse for Washington to add its own offensive military might to Israel’s.

A joint Israeli-US attack would likely have the ability to destroy Iran’s most well-protected nuclear sites, and give the Israelis a far stronger position.

It would also likely involve attacks against US bases located in countries – such as Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye – that are not direct enemies of Iran, and which Tehran will not want to bring into the conflict. These countries are also valuable to Iran as potential mediators.

But Iran has other options. It has has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which lies between itself and Oman, immediately stopping the transit of millions of barrels of oil a day. Oil prices – which have already briefly shot up to a high of $78 per barrel on Friday before falling back – would likely rise higher than $100 if that were to happen, experts believe.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a strong card the Iranians have to play, and is a possibility in the short term should the fighting continue.

Off-ramps

But ultimately Iran will be looking for an off-ramp that would end a conflict that has the potential to escalate into a regional war against two nuclear powers – Israel and the US – and cause untold damage to its own economy, with the possibility of domestic unrest as a result.

Iran will also know that while Israel will have its own limit on how much fighting it can endure, the support of the US gives it the ability to replenish munition stocks easier than Iran can.

The Iranian government has already made it clear that it will reciprocate if Israel stops its attacks, and is willing to return to nuclear talks with the US. “Once these [Israeli] attacks come to a stop, we will naturally reciprocate,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday.

This, however, depends on the US and its unpredictable president. Trump will need to put pressure on Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop, and it is unclear whether the US president is willing to do so.

Trump’s rhetoric on the conflict is constantly changing. On one hand, he has repeated calls for an end to the fighting, while at the same time threatening Iran.

Iran also knows that Trump is not someone who can be trusted or relied on. The US was involved in the deception prior to Israel’s attack last week, with the Americans maintaining the pretence that nuclear talks with Iran would go ahead on Sunday despite secretly knowing that Israel was planning to attack.

Still, an American-brokered agreement is the likeliest option Iran has to restrain Israel and end a conflict that has shown Iran’s strength, but will be increasingly difficult for it to sustain.

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Bombardment, strikes, deaths in third day of fierce Israel-Iran conflict | Israel-Iran conflict News

Iran has launched a new wave of ballistic missiles against Israel soon after loud explosions were heard in its capital Tehran, as the two countries continue to trade heavy fire for a third consecutive day and as US President Donald Trump hints both at peace coming “soon” and at the possibility of the United States joining the conflict.

On Sunday, residents in Tehran reported shuddering blasts in different areas in the heart of the city. Reports say missiles struck in Niavaran and Tajrish, in the capital’s north, and around the Valiasr and Hafte Tir squares in the city centre.

Other cities attacked by Israel included Shiraz and Isfahan, where a military base of the Defence Ministry was hit. The Israeli army said it struck an aerial refuelling aircraft at Mashhad Airport in eastern Iran, describing it as its longest-range attack since launching operations against Iran last week.

Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi said, “Iran has not experienced a war to this extent since the Iran-Iraq War ended in 1988. There were similar Israeli strikes last year, of course, but nothing compared to what’s been happening since Friday.”

“The government said earlier today that metro stations, schools and mosques are going to be ready to host people. But parts of these facilities, including mosques and schools, do not seem safe enough to be used as a sort of shelter,” he added.

Iranian officials say at least 138 people have been killed in Israel’s onslaught since Friday, including 60 on Saturday, half of them children, when a missile brought down a 14-storey apartment block in Tehran. There were no reports as yet of casualties from Sunday’s attacks.

In Israel, authorities said on Sunday that several missiles were launched from Iran, most of which were intercepted.

Rescue workers were searching for survivors in the rubble from the previous night’s wave of Iranian strikes. The hardest hit area was the town of Bat Yam, where more than 60 buildings were damaged. “Iran will pay a heavy price for the murder of civilians, women and children,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said from a balcony overlooking blown-out apartments in Bat Yam, a city just south of Tel Aviv.

Overnight, Iran struck the port city of Haifa and neighbouring Tamra, where at least four women were killed. Since the start of the conflict on Thursday, at least 13 people have been killed and 380 have been wounded in Israel.

Heavily damaged building from an Israeli strike targeting the Narmak district in eastern Tehran.
A building shows heavy damage from an Israeli strike targeting the Narmak district in eastern Tehran, on June 15, 2025 [Fatemeh Bahrami /Anadolu Agency]

Al Jazeera’s Nour Odeh, reporting from Amman, Jordan, said, “The damage from Iranian attacks is certainly extensive and unprecedented. This is the first time that Israel has confronted a state with a formidable army in the region, certainly the first time since 1973 [against Egypt]”.

“To the north, in Haifa, oil and gas pipelines were damaged, but activities continue at the oil refineries”, she added.

Israel launched its operation with a surprise attack on Friday that killed several members of the Iranian military’s top echelon, killed several nuclear scientists, and damaged the country’s nuclear sites. Since then, Israel’s attacks have been broadening in their scope, hitting residential areas and Iran’s civilian and energy sectors and raising the stakes for the global economy and the functioning of the Iranian state.

Diplomacy

As both parties continue to pound each other with strikes, hopes for a diplomatic solution seem distant for now, though they will no doubt be high on the agenda of the Group of Seven summit beginning Monday in Canada.

Speaking at a press conference in Tehran on Sunday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran does not seek to expand the conflict to neighbouring countries unless forced to.

Araghchi reaffirmed Iran’s opposition to nuclear weapons but defended its right to peaceful nuclear development. He said Iran had been ready to offer assurances in the now-cancelled sixth round of US talks, which could have led to an agreement, though Israel derailed the diplomatic progress.

The US and Iran have held five rounds of talks since April to try to find a path to a new nuclear deal that would replace a 2015 accord that Trump abandoned during his first term in office.

Araghchi also said Israel’s attacks on his country could not have materialised without the agreement and support of the US.

“We have well-documented and solid evidence of the support provided by American forces in the region and their bases for the military attacks of the Zionist regime”.

He said Trump has publicly and explicitly confirmed he knew about the attacks, that they could not have happened without US weapons and equipment, and that more attacks are coming. “Therefore, the US, in our opinion, is a partner in these attacks and must accept its responsibility.”

Talking to Fox News, Netanyahu seemed to clearly confirm that, saying he informed Trump ahead of launching the attacks.

He described the cooperation with the Trump administration as “unprecedented”, adding that the Israeli intelligence shares “every bit of information” with Washington. Netanyahu projected that regime change in Iran could be a result of Israel’s attacks.

Trump has denied any involvement and warned Tehran not to widen its retaliation to include US targets, but also didn’t rule out more direct US involvement beyond the vast arsenal and intelligence the US provides to Israel.

“If we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before,” the US president said in a message on Truth Social.

He also claimed peace could be reached “soon”, suggesting that many diplomatic meetings were taking place.

“We can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel, and end this bloody conflict,” he said.

Trump has repeatedly said Iran could end the war by agreeing to tough restrictions on its nuclear programme, which Iran says is for peaceful purposes but Western countries say could be used to make a bomb.

Trump told ABC he would be “open” to Russian President Vladimir Putin being a mediator. “He is ready. He called me about it. We had a long talk about it”.

The US president’s words were a first hint at Washington’s diplomatic involvement in the ongoing conflict. In recent days, the US has ratcheted down its diplomatic presence in countries in the region, anticipating that air strikes on Iranian military sites would be taking place.

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Will Russia, Turkiye and China provide support to Iran in its conflict? | Israel-Iran conflict

Moscow, Ankara and Beijing have condemned Israel’s attacks on Iran.

It is a conflict that has the potential to ignite the entire Middle East. Israel has been attacking Iran, saying Tehran’s nuclear programme poses an existential threat.

Iran, for its part, has responded with a barrage of retaliatory attacks.

But now, what role can the global community play?

China, Russia and Turkiye have condemned Israel’s actions.

Beijing and Moscow maintain economic and political ties with both Iran and Israel.

So, what, if anything, can these powers do to end the conflict?

And is there a shift in dynamics in the region?

Presenter: Adrian Finighan

Guests:

Barin Kayaoglu – Chair and assistant professor of American studies at the Social Sciences University of Ankara
Glenn Carle – Former CIA officer and deputy national intelligence officer for Transnational Threats at the National Intelligence Council
Nikolay Surkov – Assistant professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations

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Israel has learned no lessons from Iraq | Israel-Iran conflict

Tel Aviv’s decision to launch a new war against Iran on June 13 is a disaster in the making. No one will benefit, including the Israeli government, and many will suffer. The exchange of fire has already resulted in at least 80 people killed in Iran and 10 in Israel.

It is tragically clear that the lessons of past failed military adventurism in the region have been entirely ignored.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has branded the war as “pre-emptive”, aimed at preventing Tehran from developing its own nuclear weapon. In doing so, he has repeated the strategic blunder of the last two politicians to launch an alleged “pre-emptive” attack in the region, US President George Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

As Israeli jets and missiles streaked across the Middle East’s skies and carried out their deadly strikes against Iranian military sites and military leaders, they immediately made the world a far more dangerous place. Just like the US-British invasion of Iraq, this unprovoked attack is set to bring more instability to an already volatile region.

Netanyahu claimed that the attacks were meant to devastate Iran’s nuclear capabilities. So far, the Israeli army has hit three nuclear facilities, Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow, causing various levels of damage. However, it is unlikely that these strikes will actually put a stop to the Iranian nuclear programme, and the Israeli prime minister knows it.

The Iranian authorities have intentionally built the Natanz site deep underground so that it is impervious to all but the strongest bunker-busting bombs. Tel Aviv lacks the capability to permanently destroy it because it does not have the Massive Ordnance Penetrator or the Massive Ordnance Air Blast bombs that are produced by the United States.

Washington has long refused to provide these, even under the administration of US President Donald Trump, which has coddled Israeli officials and sought to shield them from sanctions over their war crimes in the Gaza Strip. Trump’s team has recently indicated again that it would not supply these arms to Tel Aviv.

From US official reactions after the attack, it is not entirely clear to what extent Washington was informed. The US State Department initially distanced the US from the initial attacks, labelling them a “unilateral” Israeli operation. Shortly after, Trump claimed that he was fully informed.

The extent of US involvement – and approval – for the attack remains a major question, but it immediately ended any hopes that its intense diplomacy with Tehran over its nuclear programme in recent weeks would result in a new deal, which is a short-term win for Netanyahu.

But further action against Iran appears dependent on bringing the US into the conflict. That is a huge gamble for Tel Aviv given the number of critics of US interventionism among the top ranks of Trump’s advisers. The US president himself has attempted to make reversing US interventionism a key part of his legacy.

Israel’s actions are already harming Trump’s other interests by pushing global oil prices up and complicating his relations with the Gulf states that have much to lose if the conflict disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

If Israel looks like it is winning, Trump will undoubtedly claim it as his own victory. But if Netanyahu’s strategy increasingly depends on trying to drag Washington into another Middle Eastern war, he may well lash out against him.

As things stand now, unless Israel decides to breach international norms and use a nuclear weapon, making any further strategic achievements in Iran would indeed depend on the US.

Netanyahu’s second declared goal – overthrowing the Iranian regime – also seems out of reach.

A number of senior military commanders have been killed in targeted attacks, while Tel Aviv has openly called on the Iranian people to rise up against their government. But Israel’s unilateral aggression is likely to bring far more anger towards Tel Aviv among Iranians than it will against their own government, regardless of how undemocratic it may be.

In fact, Iranian regime assertions that a nuclear bomb is a needed deterrent against Israeli aggression now will appear more logical to those who doubted it domestically. And in other regional countries where Tehran’s interests had been retreating, Netanyahu’s actions risk breathing new life into these alliances.

But even if Israel succeeds in destabilising Tehran, it will not bring about regional peace. This is the lesson that should have been learned from the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. The collapse of the Iraqi state in the aftermath led to a major rise in extremism and ultimately to the establishment of ISIL (ISIS) that terrorised so much of the region in the 2010s.

Israel has no chance of instituting a smooth transfer of power to a more pliant regime in Tehran. Occupying Iran to try to do so is out of the question given that the two countries do not share a border. US support for such an effort is also hard to imagine under the Trump administration because doing so would be sure to increase the risk of attacks against the US.

In other words, Netanyahu’s attacks may bring short-term tactical gains for Israel in delaying Iran’s nuclear ambitions and thwarting talks with the US, but they promise a long-term strategic disaster.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

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Iran defends its second barrage of missiles at Israel as self-defence | Israel-Iran conflict

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Iran’s government has defended its retaliatory attacks on Israel as ‘self-defence’ after launching a second barrage of missiles on Saturday night. Iran’s strikes came after Israel’s military bombed civilian areas and energy infrastructure across Iran, saying it was targeting Iran’s nuclear programme.

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‘Solid evidence’: Iran says US bears responsibility for Israel’s aggression | Israel-Iran conflict News

Tehran, Iran – Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says Israel’s attacks on his country could not have materialised without the agreement and support of the United States.

“We have well-documented and solid evidence of the support provided by American forces in the region and their bases for the military attacks of the Zionist regime,” Iran’s top diplomat told reporters during a news conference in the capital, Tehran, on Sunday.

He said, more importantly, US President Donald Trump has publicly and explicitly confirmed he knew about the attacks, that they could not have happened without US weapons and equipment, and that more attacks are coming.

“Therefore, the US, in our opinion, is a partner in these attacks and must accept its responsibility.”

Araghchi said Tehran has received messages from Washington through various intermediaries that it was not involved with Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities in Isfahan’s Natanz, but it “does not believe this claim” due to evidence to the contrary.

“It is necessary for the US government to clearly state its position and explicitly condemn the attack on nuclear facilities,” he said. “This act is condemned under international law, and our expectation is that the US government, in order to prove its good faith regarding nuclear weapons, will condemn the attack on a peaceful nuclear facility and distance itself from this conflict.”

Pointing out that the Israeli attacks came as Iran and the US were slated to hold a sixth round of nuclear negotiations mediated by Oman on Sunday, Araghchi emphasised that Israel “will do anything” to stop the talks and diplomacy, as it has done in the past.

‘Major strategic mistake’

Iranian authorities said the Israeli attacks, which have targeted residential and military areas in Tehran as well as many cities across the country since Friday, have killed at least 80 people, including civilians.

Multiple top-ranking commanders of the Iranian armed forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were also assassinated, as were a number of nuclear scientists and university professors.

Iran has so far launched two nights of retaliatory attacks on Israel’s Tel Aviv and Haifa, using hundreds of missiles and drones, which have led to at least 10 deaths and dozens of injuries.

Araghchi told reporters that Iran’s attacks overnight into Sunday started targeting Israel’s energy infrastructure after the Israeli army hit refineries, power stations and oil reserves across Iran.

As sounds of explosions and air defences rang across Tehran in the early hours of Sunday, Israel hit a fuel reserve in western Tehran’s Shahran neighbourhood that caused a massive fire. Authorities said the fire was contained after several hours and that most of the fuel in the reserve was taken out before the air raids.

On Saturday, the Israeli military hit Asaluyeh on Iran’s southern shores in the province of Bushehr, hitting Phase 14 of South Pars, the largest gasfield in the world.

INTERACTIVE - Israel attacks world's largest gas field-The South Pars field-iran - JUNE15, 2025-1749972446

Araghchi said the attack was a “major strategic mistake” that was likely carried out deliberately with the intention of dragging other nations into the war.

“The Persian Gulf region is extremely sensitive and complex, and any military development there could involve the entire region, and even the whole world,” he said, using the name of the Gulf, which is also commonly known as the Arabian Gulf.

Iran and Israel have said their attacks will continue for now, and the Israeli military on Sunday issued a threat to Iranians to stay away from what it called “military weapons production factories and their support institutions”, or risk being killed.

But Araghchi said Tehran is willing to stop if Israel halts its attacks, and urged the international community to intervene and condemn Israel.

‘National battle’

Iranian newspapers on Sunday dedicated their front pages to the war, with more hardline outlets manoeuvring on Iran’s attacks while others focusing on a sense of national unity.

Keyhan, whose editor-in-chief is appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, published the headline: “We will finish the war and Israel together”, and wrote about “unprecedented damages in occupied territories” caused by the Iranian missiles.

“National battle”, read a headline from the reformist Ham-Mihan, with Etemad newspaper writing about “Israel’s gamble on a minefield” and Sazandegi highlighting “Slap for Tel Aviv” in its headline story.

For the first time in nearly four decades, Iranian state television on Saturday broadcast a victory march. It was last heard in the 1980s during Iran’s eight-year invasion by neighbouring Iraq, which was backed and armed by major powers.

Mehdi Chamran, chairman of the City Council of Tehran, said the capital will soon be forced to use the same shelters used during that war, as well as metro stations and some car parks, as no new dedicated shelters have been built.

Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said on Sunday that all flights are cancelled until further notice and tried to assure people that measures are under way to ensure the state can provide basic necessities, including fuel, in case of a prolonged conflict.

Iran
Vehicles jam a highway as a fire blazes nearby in the oil depots of Shahran, northwest of Tehran, on June 15, 2025 [Atta Kenare/AFP]

The Tehran Chamber of Guilds announced that all business associations, grand bazaars and malls were open in the capital, but government workers were told to work remotely until at least Wednesday, in an indication that Tehran is expected to be hit again.

The Tehran Stock Exchange was also closed on Sunday, with its director saying the decision to keep it closed or open it for Monday will be taken on the day, considering Sunday night’s developments.

Iran’s currency, the rial, has taken another nosedive since the start of the latest conflict, having depreciated from about 840,000 against the US dollar before the Israeli attacks to about 955,000 on Sunday.

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Iran, Israel trade strikes for a third day | Israel-Iran conflict News

Israel has unleashed air attacks across Iran for a third day and threatened even greater attacks, while some Iranian missiles have evaded Israeli air defences to strike buildings in the heart of the country.

The region braced for a protracted conflict after Israel’s surprise bombardment of Iran’s nuclear and military sites on Friday killed top generals and nuclear scientists, and neither side has showed any sign of backing down since.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that if the Israeli strikes on Iran stop, then “our responses will also stop”.

Araghchi said Israel had targeted an oil refinery near Tehran and another in the country’s Bushehr province on the Gulf. He said Iran’s retaliatory strikes also targeted “economic” sites in Israel, without elaborating.

The conflict has raised prospects of a broader assault on Iran’s heavily sanctioned energy industry that could affect global markets.

United States President Donald Trump has expressed full support for Israel’s actions while warning Iran that it can avoid further destruction only by agreeing to a new nuclear deal. But talks scheduled on Sunday in Oman were called off, with Tehran calling the dialogue “meaningless”.

Meanwhile, Israeli attacks have killed at least 80 people and wounded 800 others in Iran over the past two days, including 20 children. In Israel, at least 10 people were killed in overnight strikes by Iran, bringing the country’s total death toll to 13.

Israel’s main international airport and airspace remained closed for a third day.

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