Middle East

TYRANNICAL leaders in Iran have demanded citizens act as undercover informants to turn in anyone who dares oppose the regime, insiders say.

Panicked mullahs have also ordered “telecom cages” be installed around prisons as the regime wages war against its own people.

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Political prisoners – largely banished to death row on trumped-up charges – have been subject to extreme torture and a disturbing rate of executions in the face of growing tensions in the Middle East.

Insiders say their treatment is being weaponised to deter opposition.

The fight against repression has loomed large for decades in the rogue state – but the so-called 12-day war last month has made the barbaric Ayatollah more fearful than ever of being toppled.

Ambassador Mark D. Wallace, CEO and Founder of United Against Nuclear Iran, said the Ayatollah is “on his heels” and is “engaging in a purification campaign”.

He told The Sun: “The Ayatollah is incredibly weak and I think what he’s doing is out of fear that his regime is going to collapse.

“He’s looking around, most of his generals have been killed. Those that are alive, he is probably suspicious that they are spies.

“There’s no clear succession, and I think the Ayatollah is on his heels.

“He’s doing everything he can to try to find some sort of path to a succession, and the continuation of this revolutionary regime.”

With Ali Khamenei’s grip weakened by the unprecedented Israeli and US blitz, the incapacitated supreme leader has discharged fresh hell on his own people in a corrupt bid to stifle uprising.

Sources inside Iran told The Sun how a direct alert has been issued to the public, urging them to report any activity linked to resistance groups of the People’s Mojahedin Organisation of Iran (PMOI/MEK).

Regime loyalists have been implored to act as informants – compiling detailed reports with photos, times, locations, licence plates and facial features of suspected individuals.

Orders were publicised in an official government news outlet – marking a distinct shift in the paranoid regime’s usual strategy of covert suppression.

Insiders noted it points to the regime’s growing perceived threat posed by the PMOI’s grassroots operations.

The PMOI has long fought for a secular, democratic Iran, and is understood to be gaining traction amid frustration with economic hardship, political repression, and international isolation.

Iranians have lived under the iron-fist rule of fanatics ever since the revolution in 1979 saw the country transformed into an Islamic republic.

The close-knit cadres have attempted to thwart opposition by any means necessary for 46 years – but now lie incredibly vulnerable.

Anxious mullahs forced a complete shutdown of internet access in government offices during the conflict last month to take full control of information flow.

Iran regime massacres inmates

by Katie Davis, Chief Foreign Reporter (Digital)

IRAN’S ruthless regime massacred defenceless inmates at a prison before blaming their deaths on shrapnel from airstrikes, insiders revealed.

Cold-blooded regime dictators have also ordered the arrest of hundreds after accusing them of having links to arch-foe Israel.

As Israeli missiles rained down on a nearby military site on June 16, panicked inmates at Dizel-Abad Prison in Kermanshah begged to be moved to safety.

But they were instead met with a hail of bullets from the regime’s merciless enforcers in a “deliberate and cold-blooded act”, a witness said.

The source from within the prison said: “The prisoners insisted they be moved from areas where windows had shattered and where they feared further missile strikes.

“The regime’s answer was bullets.

“The special forces opened fire directly at unarmed, defenseless inmates who were merely trying to flee a danger zone.”

Insiders said the prisoners faced live ammunition after guards began beating inmates when they tried to breach internal doors in a bid to get to safety.

At least ten people were killed and a further 30 injured.

Regime authorities are now said to be attempting to cover up the deaths.

One source said: “Officials are planning to falsely attribute the deaths to shrapnel from the airstrike, not their own gunfire.”

READ MORE HERE

Universities were mandated to create “war monitoring rooms” on every campus – which continue to put the personal social media activity of professors and students under surveillance.

Meanwhile, the Supreme National Security Council is installing “telecom cages” at prisons around the state to sever any external communications inmates have.

Jamming devices have been deployed to disrupt messages and calls being made – preventing any contact with the outside world.

It comes as execution numbers have spiralled in recent weeks – with 424 recorded since March 21, according to figures from the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI).

In just three days during the conflict between Israel and Iran, 17 prisoners – including one woman – were executed.

One source said: “This surge is a deliberate tactic to instill fear and crush resistance.”

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Wallace, who served as the US ambassador to the United Nations, said the regime has ramped up its “vicious clampdown” to prevent “people pouring out in opposition in the streets”.

The ex-diplomat added: “You see real Iranians suffering every day in those streets, and we cannot forget about them.

“The only path ultimately for the regime to fall is solely in the control of the Iranian people.

“Sadly, the Iranian people will suffer, and many will likely have to die for that to happen, and they’re being persecuted as we speak today.

“I’m sure there are people being imprisoned and likely will meet their death because of the crackdown of that state security apparatus.

“It’s really essential that we do not forget the people of Iran that are the victims of this regime.”

The NCRI has warned how four political prisoners are facing severe torture as regime enforcers try to extract forced confessions to try and link them to the deaths of two notorious regime judges.

Arghavan Fallahi, Bijan Kazemi, and father and son Mohammad and Amirhossein Akbari Monfared have been subjected to prolonged interrogation and could face the death penalty.

Despite this, defiant campaigners have continued their “No to Execution Tuesdays” movement – uniting activists and the families of inmates.

Zolal Habibi, of the NCRI’s Foreign Affairs Committee, told The Sun: “Even in the midst of war, the clerical regime in Iran has not paused its machinery of executions and repression for a single day.

“This chilling reality underscores a deeper truth: the primary war in Iran is not external, but internal — a war between the Iranian people and their organised resistance on one side, and the ruling religious dictatorship on the other.

“Yet amid this brutality, the resilience of the Iranian people shines through.

“Last Tuesday, political prisoners across 47 prisons -the most tightly controlled spaces in the country – continued their campaign against the death penalty for the 74th consecutive week.

“Their defiance is a source of pride for every Iranian who dreams of freedom.”

The international legal order loses its effectiveness when faced with the unilateralism of hegemonic powers as well as acts that flout universally accepted norms. If such practices remain unaddressed, there is a risk that the order will lose its foundational purpose: the protection of justice, peace, and the sovereignty of nations.

The attack by the United States and Israel on Iran, including the targeted killings of scientists and intellectuals, bombing of IAEA-approved nuclear facilities, and strikes against residential, medical, media, and public infrastructure, is a prime example of illegal, unilateral action that must not remain unaddressed. It is a wrongful act and a clear violation of fundamental norms of international law.

In this context, the principle of state responsibility, which dictates that states are held accountable for wrongful acts, must be applied. This principle was codified by the International Law Commission ILC in its 2001 Draft Articles on Responsibility of States for Internationally Wrongful Acts, which have since been widely recognised and cited by international courts and tribunals.

Per their provisions, the commission of a wrongful act – such as the unlawful use of force – constitutes a violation of an international obligation and imposes a binding duty on the responsible state to provide full and effective reparation for the harm caused.

In the case of the illegal acts committed by the United States and Israel, the scope of legal responsibility goes far beyond ordinary violations. These acts not only contravened customary international law, but also breached peremptory norms, the highest-ranking norms within the international legal hierarchy. Among these, the principle of the prohibition of aggression is a core and universally binding rule. No state is permitted to derogate from this norm, and violations trigger obligations, requiring all members of the international community to respond collectively to uphold the law.

There are at least two relevant legal precedents that can guide the application of the principle of state responsibility and the obligation for reparations in the case of Iran.

In 1981, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 487 in response to Israel’s attack on Iraq’s nuclear facilities. It unequivocally characterised this act of aggression as a “serious threat to the entire safeguard regime of the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA]”, which is the foundation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The resolution also fully recognised the inalienable sovereign right of all states to establish programmes of technological and nuclear development to develop their economy and industry for peaceful purposes.

Article 6 stipulates that “Iraq is entitled to appropriate redress for the destruction it has suffered, responsibility for which has been acknowledged by Israel”. By mandating that the aggressor compensate the victim for the resulting damages, the resolution provides a clear legal precedent for pursuing redress in similar cases.

Thus, given the fact that the attacks by the US and Israel were carried out with public declarations confirming the operations and are well-documented, the application of the principles and provisions of Resolution 487 to the Iranian case is not only appropriate and necessary but also firmly grounded in international law.

Another relevant document is UN Security Council Resolution 692, which was adopted in 1991 and established the United Nations Compensation Commission (UNCC) following Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. The commission was tasked with processing claims for compensation of losses and damages incurred as a result of the invasion.

The creation of UNCC demonstrated the capacity of international mechanisms to identify victims, evaluate damage, and implement practical compensation – setting a clear model for state responsibility in cases of unlawful aggression.

This precedent provides a strong legal and institutional basis for asserting the rights of the Iranian people. It is therefore both appropriate and necessary for the UN to establish a rule-based mechanism, such as an international commission on compensation, to redress Iran.

Such a commission, initiated and endorsed by the UN General Assembly or other competent UN bodies, should undertake a comprehensive assessment of the damages inflicted by the unlawful and aggressive acts of the US and the Zionist regime against Iran.

The establishment of reparative mechanisms – whether through independent commissions, fact-finding bodies, or compensation funds operating under international oversight – would contribute meaningfully to restoring trust in the global legal system and provide a principled response to the ongoing normalisation of impunity.

Iran also has another avenue for pursuing justice for the illegal attacks it was subjected to. In the lead-up to them, the IAEA published biased and politically motivated reports about the Iranian nuclear programme, which facilitated the commission of aggression by the US and Israel and breached the principle of neutrality.

This places Iran in a position to seek redress and claim damages from the agency under Article 17 of the IAEA Safeguards Agreement. As a state harmed by the agency’s manifest negligence, Iran is entitled to full reparation for all material and moral damages inflicted upon its peaceful nuclear facilities and scientific personnel.

In this context, pursuing accountability for the IAEA, alongside the aggressor states, is a vital element of Iran’s broader strategy to uphold accountability within the international legal order. By relying on recognised, legitimate, and binding international mechanisms, Iran will steadfastly defend the rights of its people at every forum.

Ultimately, responsibility for the recent crimes of this war of aggression does not lie solely with the direct perpetrators, the US and Israel, and those who aided them, the IAEA. All states and international organisations bear an undeniable obligation to implement effective legal measures to prevent such crimes.

The international community as a whole must respond decisively. Silence, delay, or any form of complicity in the face of aggression and atrocities would reduce the principle of state accountability under international law to an empty slogan.

In its pursuit of accountability, Iran will exhaust all available resources and will not relent until the rights of its people are fully recognised and they receive adequate redress. It will continue to seek the prosecution and accountability of those responsible for these crimes, both domestically and internationally, until justice is fully achieved.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Soldiers died from gas exposure during a mission to recover a Turkish soldier missing in the cave since 2022.

Twelve Turkish soldiers have died after inhaling methane gas during a mission in northern Iraq, the Turkish Ministry of National Defence says.

“Four other of our heroic comrades in arms, affected by methane gas, have died … bringing the total number of victims to 12,” the ministry said in a post on X on Monday.

According to it, the incident took place on Sunday as troops searched for the remains of a soldier killed by fighters belonging to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in 2022.

PKK has been labelled a terrorist group by Turkiye, the European Union and the United States. It fought for Kurdish autonomy for years, a fight that has been declared over now.

Nineteen soldiers were exposed to the gas inside a site once used by armed fighters as a hospital.

The condition of the remaining seven soldiers was not clear immediately. “I wish a speedy recovery for our heroes affected by methane
gas,” Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya wrote on X.

The soldiers were conducting a sweep operation inside a cave at an altitude of 852 metres (2,795 feet) in the Metina region, part of Turkiye’s ongoing Operation Claw-Lock targeting the PKK positions in northern Iraq.

Though the gas is not considered toxic, methane can become deadly in confined spaces due to suffocation risks. The ministry has not clarified how the gas accumulated inside the cave.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his “great sorrow” over the incident and extended condolences to the families of the fallen.

Defence Minister Yasar Guler travelled to the area to oversee inspections and attend ceremonies for the deceased.

News of the deaths emerged as a delegation from the pro-Kurdish DEM party was visiting jailed PKK founder Abdullah Ocalan as part of the ongoing negotiations with the Turkish government.

The decades-long conflict between Ankara and the PKK has killed more than 40,000 people since 1984.

Three-year-old Amr al-Hams lies immobile in his southern Gaza hospital bed with shrapnel embedded in his brain from an Israeli air strike.

Unable to walk or speak, his eyes dart around, searching for his mother, his aunt Nour believes.

Amr’s mother, Inas, was nine months pregnant when she took the family to visit her parents in northern Gaza. That night, their tent was struck. The attack killed his mother, her unborn baby, two of Amr’s siblings and his grandfather.

Amr survived after being rushed to intensive care with a breathing tube. His grief-stricken father is nearly speechless.

Now at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, Amr has left intensive care but suffers from severe malnutrition. The fortified milk he requires vanished during Israel’s months-long blockade.

Nour feeds him mashed lentils through a syringe. She sleeps beside him, changes his nappies and comforts him during seizures.

“I tell him his mother will be back soon,” she says. “Other times, I give him a toy. But he cries. I think he misses her.”

Doctors say Amr needs immediate evacuation from the conflict zone. Without specialised care and therapy, his brain injuries will likely cause permanent damage.

“His brain is still developing,” Nour says. “Will he walk again? Speak again? So long as he is in Gaza, there is no recovery.”

“There’s a lot more settler violence than we saw a couple of months ago.”

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Blazes break out in France, Greece, Turkiye and Syria, with several other nations on high alert amid warnings of scorching weather.

Countries across the Mediterranean are battling fast-spreading wildfires and soaring temperatures as a heatwave sweeps through Southern Europe and parts of the Middle East, prompting evacuations and emergency alerts.

Blazes broke out in Greece, Turkiye, France and Syria on Sunday, with several other nations on high alert as forecasters warned that the scorching weather would intensify in the coming days.

From Spain to Italy, authorities urged residents to protect vulnerable people and avoid unnecessary travel during the region’s first severe heatwave of the summer.

Emergency teams and ambulances were stationed near popular tourist destinations, while meteorologists warned that extreme heat events – supercharged by climate change – are becoming more frequent and intense.

In western Turkiye, wildfires erupted on Sunday in Izmir province, fanned by strong winds. Firefighters, supported by aircraft, fought to control the blaze. Local authorities said five neighbourhoods in the Seferihisar district were evacuated as a precaution.

Authorities said firefighters have battled more than 600 fires in the drought-hit nation over the past week.

Turkish authorities arrested 10 suspects in relation to wildfires that broke out across the country over the past week, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said on Friday.

The wildfires killed at least three people in the western coastal province of Izmir.

Firefighters were still trying to control a blaze in the southern coastal area of Dortyol in Hatay province.

Meanwhile, in Greece, more than 160 firefighters, 46 fire trucks and five aircraft were deployed to combat flames in southern Evia.

The blaze, which began late on Friday, burned through forested areas and forced two villages to evacuate, officials said. Fires also broke out near Athens.

France also saw wildfires break out in the Corbieres region of Aude in the southwest, where temperatures soared above 40C (104F). A campsite and a historic abbey were evacuated.

Meteo France placed 84 of the country’s 101 departments under orange-level heat alerts on Monday.

In Spain, the national weather agency AEMET reported temperatures reaching 44C (111F) in parts of Extremadura and Andalusia.

“I feel that the heat we’re experiencing is not normal for this time of year,” said Diego Radames, a 32-year-old photographer in Madrid, speaking to the AFP news agency. “Madrid just keeps getting hotter.”

Italy placed 21 cities on red alert, including important ones, such as Rome, Milan and Naples. Emergency rooms reported a 10 percent rise in heatstroke cases, according to Mario Guarino of the Italian Society of Emergency Medicine.

Portugal also faced extreme conditions, with the capital, Lisbon, under a red warning until Monday night. Two-thirds of the country was on high alert for wildfires and extreme heat.

On the island of Sicily, firefighters tackled 15 blazes on Saturday alone.

Scientists warn that climate change is intensifying the heat.

“Heatwaves in the Mediterranean have become more frequent and more intense in recent years,” Emanuela Piervitali of Italy’s Institute for Environmental Protection and Research told AFP. “We’ll need to adapt to even higher extremes in the future.”

The Foreign Office advises against all travel to war-torn Yemen – and it’s not hard to see why. It is a no-go zone for Brits with no embassy services and no evacuation procedures in place.

Yemen has earned the ominous title of the world’s most treacherous country in 2025, outstripping even war-ravaged Ukraine, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya in terms of danger.

The UK Foreign Office issues a stark warning for those considering a trip to the country: “Support for British people is severely limited in Yemen. British Embassy services in Sana’a are suspended, and all diplomatic and consular staff have been withdrawn. The UK government cannot help British nationals leaving Yemen. There are no evacuation procedures in place.”

According to the World Population Review’s analysis, Yemen – which shares borders with Saudi Arabia and Oman – has surpassed Sudan, Ukraine, Afghanistan, and Syria to claim the top spot.

Owen Williams, a Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey Analyst at Sibylline Strategic Risk Group, offers insight into the country’s precarious situation: “Yemen is often considered one of the most hazardous countries in the world due to the protracted civil war, widespread food shortages, military interventions, and a collapse of public infrastructure.”

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Mr Williams explains that the instability is in part due to the Houthi rebels’ insurgency against the internationally recognised government. The group’s slogan, the sarkha, is a chilling call to arms: “God is great, death to America, death to Israel, curse on the Jews, victory to Islam.”

Since ousting the previous government in 2014, the group, which remains unlisted as a terrorist organisation in the UK, has taken control of much of northwest Yemen, including the capital Sana’a. The ongoing clash between the government and insurgents has plunged the nation into a severe humanitarian crisis.

Mr Williams pointed out that “Yemen was already in a difficult position before the onset of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023”, but the regional tensions have since intensified. He explained: “Following the October 7 attacks, as a member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance, the Houthis began to target shipping in the Red Sea with drones and missiles, as well as launching attacks against Israel.

“This resulted in a US-Coalition intervention in Yemen, with many airstrikes targeting Houthi facilities and key infrastructure. These reached a peak in May 2025, when the US attacked a migrant detention facility. While the US has agreed a ceasefire with the Houthis, the risk of Israeli airstrikes persists.”

The group’s maritime assaults, often from small vessels, have caused global shipping firms to divert their routes, leading ships to navigate around South Africa instead.

Mr Williams has issued a stark warning to Brits against travelling to Yemen, highlighting that despite “there has likely been reduced media coverage of the situation in Yemen in recent years”, Westerners remain highly susceptible to danger and abduction.

One of the very few remaining tourist destinations in Yemen is Socotra, an archipelago that is unlike anywhere else. Sat 200 miles off the coast of mainland Yemen, close to the Horn of Africa, it is home to a unique array of plants and wildlife.

UNESCO recognises Socotra Island as a site of universal importance due to its biodiversity, with nearly 40 percent of its plant species being exclusive to the island. The surrounding islands, including Socotra, are also notable for their land and sea bird breeding spots and unique coral reefs, which are home to over 700 species of coastal fish.

While Socotora is covered by the Foreign Office’s advice—meaning visitors travelling there do so at their own peril and risk having their insurance invalidated—the archipelago has a very low crime rate and has been little impacted by the 11-year war that continues to rage on the mainland.

The main difficulty for those dreaming of visiting is how to get there.

Janet Newenham is a professional traveller who has spent years visiting some of the world’s most inaccessible places. Since visiting Iraq several years ago, Janet has organised small group trips for women to some of these places. Including, in February, to Socotora.

“It’s a paradise island off the coast of Yemen. People in the extreme travel community know about it, but a lot of people don’t,” Janet told the Mirror.

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“It’s hard to get to. There are two flights a week from Abu Dhabi, but you can’t book them in a normal way. You have to book them through WhatsApp. It’s through Emirates Aviation, and it’s a humanitarian charter flight. You have to WhatsApp them and then send a bank transfer.

“It was absolutely incredible. I never knew there were places like that in Yemen. It has bright blue water, white sand beaches, and dragon’s blood trees. You won’t find them anywhere else in the world.”

The global economy is on tenterhooks in the run-up to United States President Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline for dozens of countries to reach trade deals or face sharply higher tariffs.

Wednesday’s deadline comes after Trump announced in April a 90-day pause on his steepest tariffs after his “Liberation Day” plans sent markets into a tailspin.

With billions of dollars in global trade at stake, US trade partners are racing to negotiate deals to avoid damage to their economies amid continuing uncertainty over Trump’s next moves.

What will happen when the deadline expires?

The Trump administration has indicated that trade partners that fail to reach deals with the US will face higher tariffs, but there are big question marks around which countries will be hit and how hard.

On Sunday, Trump said he would begin sending letters to particular countries this week outlining new tariff rates, while also indicating that he had sealed a number of new trade deals.

Trump told reporters that he would send a letter or conclude a deal for “most countries”, without specifying any by name, by Wednesday.

In an interview with CNN on Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said countries that do not reach a deal would face higher tariffs from August 1.

Bessent disputed the suggestion that the deadline had moved and said tariffs for affected countries would “boomerang back” to the levels originally announced on April 2.

On Friday, however, Trump suggested the tariffs could go as high as 70 percent, which would be higher than the 50 percent maximum rate outlined in his “Liberation Day” plan.

Adding to the uncertainty, Trump on Sunday threatened to impose an additional 10 percent tariff on countries that aligned themselves with the “anti-American policies” of BRICS, a bloc of 10 emerging economies, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa as the founding members.

“There will be no exceptions to this policy. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform.

“It’s getting harder to guess what might happen given conflicting information from the White House,” Deborah Elms, the head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, told Al Jazeera.

“With the lack of ‘deals’ to announce before July 9, I’m not surprised that the US is both issuing threats of new, potentially higher rates to be imposed in letters and suggesting that deadlines could be extended to some if offers are deemed to be sufficiently attractive.”

Which countries have reached trade deals with the US?

So far, only China, the United Kingdom and Vietnam have announced trade deals, which have reduced Trump’s tariffs but not eliminated them.

Under the US-China deal, tariffs on Chinese goods were reduced from 145 percent to 30 percent, while duties on US exports fell from 125 percent to 10 percent.

The deal, however, only paused the higher tariff rates for 90 days, rather than scrapping them outright, and left numerous outstanding issues between the sides unresolved.

The UK’s agreement saw it maintain a 10 percent tariff rate, while Vietnam saw its 46 percent levy replaced by a 20 percent rate on Vietnamese exports and a 40 percent tariff for “transshipping”.

A host of other key US trade partners have confirmed that negotiations are under way, including the European Union, Canada, India, Japan and South Korea.

Trump administration officials have indicated that negotiations are primarily focused on a dozen-and-a-half countries that make up the vast bulk of the US trade deficit.

On Sunday, The Washington Post reported that the EU, the US’s largest trading partner, was working to conclude a “skeletal” deal that would defer a resolution on their most contentious differences before the deadline to avoid Trump’s mooted 50 percent tariff.

India’s CNBC-TV18 also reported on Sunday that New Delhi expected to finalise a “mini trade deal” within the next 24-48 hours.

The CNBC-TV18 report, citing unnamed sources, said the agreement would see the average tariff rate set at about 10 percent.

Andrew K McAllister, a member of Holland & Knight’s International Trade Group in Washington, DC, said while Trump is likely to announce a small number of deals that resemble those signed with China, Vietnam and the UK, most countries are probably looking at significant across-the-board tariffs.

“My view is that tariffs are here to stay,” McAllister told Al Jazeera.

“I view the bargaining chip to be the level at which the tariff is set. For countries in which the president and administration view tariffs and other non-tariff barriers against US products as significant, he is much more likely to impose higher levels of tariffs.”

What will be the economic impact of Trump’s trade war?

Economists widely agree that steep tariffs over a sustained period would push up prices and hinder the growth of both the US and global economies.

The World Bank and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) last month downgraded their outlook for the global economy, cutting their forecasts from 2.8 percent to 2.3 percent, and from 3.3 percent to 2.9 percent, respectively.

At the same time, anticipating the impact of Trump’s trade war has been made more challenging by his administration’s repeated U-turns and conflicting signals on tariffs.

Trump’s steepest tariffs have been put on pause, though a 10 percent baseline duty has been applied to all US imports and levies on Chinese exports remain at double-digit levels.

JP Morgan Research has estimated that a 10 percent universal tariff and a 110 percent tariff on China would reduce global gross domestic product (GDP) by 1 percent, with the hit to GDP falling to 0.7 percent in the case of a 60 percent duty on Chinese goods.

So far, the fallout from the tariffs introduced has been modest, though analysts have warned that inflation may still take off once businesses burn through inventory stockpiles built up in anticipation of higher costs.

Despite fears of sharp price rises in the US, annualised inflation came in at a modest 2.3 percent in May, close to the Federal Reserve’s target.

The US stock market, after suffering steep losses earlier this year, has bounced back to an all-time high, while the US economy added a stronger-than-expected 147,000 jobs in June.

Other data points to underlying jitters, however.

Consumer spending fell 0.1 percent in May, according to the US Commerce Department, the first decline since January.

“As for the economy generally, the jury’s out on whether we’re still waiting on the worst of the tariff hit,” Dutch bank ING said in a note on Friday.

“The delay in China’s tariff levels probably came just in time to avert a more serious recessionary threat. The latest jobs report certainly doesn’t point to the bottom falling out of the labour market, though if we’re talking about time lags, this is usually the last place economic damage shows up. Sentiment remains fragile, remember.”

Israeli military attacks ports of Hodeidah, Ras-Isa and as-Salif as Houthis continue to launch missiles towards Israel.

Israel’s military has bombed three ports and a power plant in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, prompting the rebel group to fire more missiles towards Israeli territory.

The Israeli military said on Sunday that it struck the ports of Hodeidah, Ras-Isa and as-Salif on the Red Sea coast as well as the Ras Kathib power plant.

It said it also struck a radar system on the Galaxy Leader ship, which was seized by the Houthis and remains docked in the port of Hodeidah.

There were no immediate reports of casualties.

The Israeli attacks late on Sunday were the first on Yemen in almost a month and came after the military claimed that it intercepted a missile fired by the Houthis in the early hours of the day.

The rebel group, which controls Yemen’s most populous areas, responded to the latest Israeli attacks by launching more missiles at Israel in the early hours of Monday.

The Israeli military said two missiles were fired from Yemen, and that it attempted to intercept the projectiles. The attack set off sirens in the cities of Jerusalem, Hebron and near the Dead Sea.

Israel’s emergency service said there have been no reports of injuries or impact from the projectiles.

The Houthis say their attacks on Israel are in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza who are under Israeli attack. The group has fired hundreds of missiles at Israel and launched more than 100 attacks on commercial vessels in the vital Red Sea corridor, since Israel’s war on Gaza began in 2023.

The Houthis paused their attacks after a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in January, but resumed them after the United States launched attacks on Yemen on March 15, killing nearly 300 people in the weeks that followed.

Houthis downplay attacks

The latest escalation comes at a sensitive moment in the Middle East as a possible ceasefire in Israel’s war on Gaza hangs in the balance, and as Tehran weighs whether to restart negotiations over its nuclear programme following United States air strikes that damaged Iran’s most sensitive atomic sites.

In Yemen on Sunday night, the Houthi-affiliated news outlet Al Masirah TV reported that strikes hit the port city of Hodeidah, while the Saba news agency confirmed the attacks on the three ports as well as the power station.

A spokesman for the Houthis, Ameen Hayyan Yemeni, meanwhile, said the group’s air defences forced “a large portion” of Israel’s warplanes to retreat.

Locally-manufactured surface-to-air missiles were used to respond, “causing great confusion among enemy pilots and operations rooms”, he wrote in a statement on X.

Al Jazeera’s Nabil Alyousefi, reporting from the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, said the Houthis were downplaying the impact of the strikes on Hodeidah.

“The Houthis say their air defences – using locally made surface-to-air missiles – were effective in responding to the Israeli assault, with sources indicating roughly 30 minutes of clashes between Houthi air defenses and Israeli forces,” Alyousefi said.

“The Houthis have not reported any material or human losses so far, reassuring that their armed forces repelled all Israeli aggression. They emphasized their readiness to confront any future Israeli attacks and stated they are prepared to target Israeli territory in response,” he added.

The hostilities also took place after a grenade and drone attack on a Red Sea cargo ship set the vessel on fire and forced its crew to abandon it.

No group has claimed the attack, but the United Kingdom maritime agency said it matched the “established Houthi target profile“.

Separately, Israeli forces also bombed Lebanon, claiming attacks on several Hezbollah targets in the country’s south as well as the eastern Bekaa region.

In a statement, the military said the strikes were directed at infrastructure used for “storing and producing strategic weapons” and a “rocket launch site”.

Since a November 27 ceasefire formally ended more than a year of hostilities with Hezbollah, Israel has continued sporadic strikes on Lebanon. It says the group’s activities run counter to the agreement, but does not provide evidence to back its claims.

In addition to its ongoing war on the Gaza Strip, Israeli forces have launched attacks on the occupied West Bank, Syria and Iran over the past year.

Israeli attacks across Gaza have killed at least 82 people as negotiations between Israel and Hamas towards a ceasefire deal begin in Qatar.

On Sunday, at least 39 people were killed in Gaza City alone. A midnight attack on the Sheikh Radwan neighbourhood in the region also trapped victims under debris.

Witnesses have described apocalyptic scenes as neighbours retrieve body parts, including those of children.

Mahmoud al-Sheikh Salama, a survivor of one strike, said it took place at 2am (23:00 GMT on Saturday) while he was sleeping.

“We heard a loud explosion and shortly after, another one. We rushed over… and people were trapped under the rubble – four families, a large number of residents,” he told Al Jazeera.

“We tried to search for survivors and managed to pull out two people alive from under the debris after about three hours of struggle and breaking through. We got two out alive – the rest were martyred and are still trapped.”

Reporting from Gaza City, Al Jazeera’s Hani Mahmoud said Israel’s current military escalation in Gaza is “a chilling and brutal reminder” of the opening weeks of the war because of the intensity and scale of each attack.

“In the span of two hours, we have counted at least seven air strikes across the Gaza Strip,” he said.

“A local community kitchen in the northern part of Deir el-Balah was also struck and three people were killed, including the main operator behind it.”

Attacks near aid sites

Besides Gaza City, medical sources at hospitals told Al Jazeera that at least nine Palestinians were killed by Israeli army fire near aid distribution centres operated by the US- and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) since the morning.

Five were killed near the Netzarim Corridor, located just south of Gaza City, which splits the Strip down the middle. The Palestinian Ministry of Health said Israeli forces killed at least 743 Palestinians in attacks at sites run by the GHF since late May.

The GHF has drawn widespread criticism, with multiple reports that its contractors, as well as Israeli forces, have opened fire on desperate aid seekers. Two American contractors were wounded with non-life-threatening injuries on Saturday during an attack on an aid site.

“The attack – which preliminary information indicates was carried out by two assailants who threw two grenades at the Americans – occurred at the conclusion of an otherwise successful distribution in which thousands of Gazans safely received food,” the GHF said.

The United States on Saturday blamed Hamas for the attack. Gaza’s Government Media Office rejected these accusations.

“We categorically and unequivocally reject the claims issued by the US State Department alleging that the Palestinian resistance threw explosives at American personnel operating at sites run by the so-called ‘Gaza Humanitarian Foundation – GHF,’” the media office said in a statement.

Possible ceasefire?

Meanwhile, indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas towards a ceasefire deal in the Gaza Strip have begun in Qatar.

“Negotiations are about implementation mechanisms and hostage exchange, and positions are being exchanged through mediators,” an unnamed official told the AFP news agency.

US President Donald Trump on Sunday said that there is “a good chance” a Gaza captive release and ceasefire deal could be reached with Hamas this week, “as they’re close”.

Trump told reporters such a deal meant “quite a few hostages” could be released. Trump is set to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday at the White House.

The US president said last week that Israel has agreed to the conditions for a 60-day ceasefire, and negotiators could meet to carve out a path to finally end Israel’s nearly 21-month war on Gaza.

On Friday, Hamas said it responded to a US-backed Gaza ceasefire proposal in a “positive spirit”.

On Sunday, before boarding his flight to Washington, DC, Netanyahu also said he believed his discussions with Trump on Monday would help advance talks on a Gaza deal.

“I believe the discussion with President Trump can certainly help advance these results,” he said, adding that he is determined to ensure the return of captives held in Gaza and remove the threat of Hamas to Israel.

Analysts, however, say that Netanyahu wants to continue the retaliatory war on Gaza until he can gain enough political leverage to dismiss the court cases against him in Israel and build enough popular support to remain the country’s leader.

Netanyahu is on trial for corruption and is still widely blamed in Israeli society for the security failures that led to Hamas’s deadly attack on October 7, 2023.

“Israel and Netanyahu are not interested in reaching a ceasefire,” Adnan Hayajneh, a professor of international relations at Qatar University, told Al Jazeera, adding that there is a “very slim chance” of a ceasefire.

“What Israel wants is clear… a land without a people,” Hayajneh said.

“So, Palestinians are given three choices… starve to death… get killed… [or] leave the land. But Palestinians have so far proven they will not leave the land, no matter what.”

For decades, tens of thousands of Afghans – who have fled war and poverty and sought a better future – have crossed into neighbouring Iran.

Tehran has largely been lenient towards members of this community. But in recent years, Iranians seem to have grown tired of hosting them – and sentiment towards foreign nationals has hardened.

The Iranian government has responded by expelling undocumented people. Those being forced out have no choice but to return to the country they escaped from.

While the Taliban government is welcoming returning Afghans, what kind of life awaits them, and what can the international community do to help?

Presenter:

James Bays

Guests:

Arafat Jamal – Afghanistan representative of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)

Orzala Nemat – Activist for the rights of Afghan women and director of the Development Research Group,  a UK-based consultancy

Hassan Ahmadian – Assistant professor of West Asian Studies at the University of Tehran

Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran’s military, nuclear and civilian sites, killing at least 935 people.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has warned that if Israel is not held accountable for its attack on Iran, “the whole region and beyond will suffer”.

“The US-Israeli attacks on our nuclear facilities were in stark violation of NPT [the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty] and the UNSC Resolution 2231 that has endorsed Iran’s peaceful nuclear programme in 2015 by consensus,” Araghchi said in a speech at the BRICS summit in Brazil, cited by state-run Press TV.

“The US’s subsequent involvement in this aggression by targeting Iran’s peaceful nuclear installations has left no doubt as to the full complicity of the American government in Israel’s war of aggression against Iran.”

Iran won the support of fellow BRICS+ nations meeting in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday, with the bloc condemning the recent Israeli and US air strikes that hit military, nuclear and other targets.

The 11-nation grouping said the attacks “constitute a violation of international law”.

“We condemn the military strikes against the Islamic Republic of Iran since 13 June 2025,” leaders said in a summit statement, without naming the United States or Israel.

“We further express serious concern over deliberate attacks on civilian infrastructure and peaceful nuclear facilities,” the bloc added.

The declaration is a diplomatic victory for Tehran, which has received limited regional or global support after a 12-day bombing campaign by the Israeli military that culminated in US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan.

Israel launched the surprise attack on Iran’s military, nuclear, and civilian sites on June 13, killing at least 935 people. The Iranian Health Ministry said 5,332 people were wounded.

Tehran launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Israel, killing at least 29 people and wounding more than 3,400, according to figures released by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

The fighting ended with a US-sponsored ceasefire that took effect on June 24 and continues to hold.

United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reports the vessel is taking on water after being targeted with gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades.

A commercial vessel in the Red Sea has come under attack after small boats fired rocket-propelled grenades and automatic weapons towards the ship.

According to the organisation United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the incident took place 94km (51 nautical miles) southwest of the Yemeni port of Hodeidah.

“The vessel has been engaged by multiple small vessels who have opened fire with small arms and self-propelled grenades. [The] armed security team have returned fire and situation is ongoing,” said UKMTO, which is run by Britain’s Royal Navy.

The UKMTO said the attack resulted in a fire onboard and the vessel began taking on water Sunday night as its crew prepared to abandon ship.

“Authorities are investigating,” it said, adding later the ship was ablaze after being “struck by unknown projectiles”.

“UKMTO has had confirmation from the Company Security Officer that the vessel is taking on water and crew are preparing to abandon ship,” a statement said.

Maritime security sources added that the vessel was identified as the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier Magic Seas.

British maritime security firm Ambrey said in an advisory that the ship was attacked by four unmanned surface vehicles [USVs].

“Two of the USVs impacted the port side of the vessel, damaging the vessel’s cargo,” Ambrey added.

While no one has claimed responsibility, Ambrey said the attack matched the “established Houthi target profile”.

The Yemen-based armed group the Houthis began targeting vessels in the Red Sea shortly after Israel’s war on Gaza began in October 2023, which the Houthis say is in defence of the Palestinians living in the besieged enclave.

Since November 2023, the Houthis have launched more than 100 attacks targeting commercial vessels, disrupting global shipping and forcing firms to reroute.

Their campaign has expanded to include vessels linked to the United States and the United Kingdom since the two countries initiated military strikes in January 2024.

In May, the Houthis and the US agreed on a ceasefire that would see the end of attacks on US ships. But the Houthis vowed to continue to target Israeli-linked vessels.

A renewed Houthi campaign against shipping could again draw in US and Western forces to the area.

This comes at a sensitive moment in the Middle East as a possible ceasefire in the war on Gaza hangs in the balance, and as Iran weighs whether to restart negotiations over its nuclear programme following US air strikes targeting its most sensitive atomic sites.

BRICS countries have been in disagreement over how strongly to denounce Israel’s bombing of Iran and its actions in Gaza.

Brazil’s president says the world must act to stop what he describes as an Israeli “genocide” in Gaza as leaders from 11 emerging BRICS nations gathered in Rio de Janeiro.

“We cannot remain indifferent to the genocide carried out by Israel in Gaza, the indiscriminate killing of innocent civilians and the use of hunger as a weapon of war,” President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told leaders from China, India and other nations on Sunday.

His comments came as Gaza truce talks between Israel and Hamas resumed in Doha and as pressure mounted to end the 21-month war, which began with Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attacks in southern Israel.

Lula said “absolutely nothing could justify the terrorist actions” of Hamas on that day, which resulted in the deaths of 1,219 people, mostly Israeli civilians.

But he also offered fierce criticism of Israel’s subsequent actions. Israel’s military campaign has killed at least 57,418 people in Gaza, also mostly civilians.

BRICS countries have been in disagreement over how strongly to denounce Israel’s bombing of Iran and its actions in Gaza.

‘Autonomy in check once again’

Leaders in Rio called for reform of traditional Western institutions while presenting BRICS as a defender of multilateral diplomacy in an increasingly fractured world.

With forums such as the G7 and G20 groups of major economies hamstrung by divisions and the disruptive America First approach of United States President Donald Trump, expansion of BRICS has opened new space for diplomatic coordination.

In his opening remarks, Lula drew a parallel with the Cold War’s Non-Aligned Movement, a group of developing nations that resisted formally joining either side of a polarised global order.

“BRICS is the heir to the Non-Aligned Movement,” Lula told leaders. “With multilateralism under attack, our autonomy is in check once again.”

BRICS nations now represent more than half the world’s population and 40 percent of its economic output.

Leaders from Brazil, Russia, India and China gathered for the  its first summit in 2009. The bloc later added South Africa and last year included Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as members. This is the first summit of leaders to include Indonesia.

Some leaders were missing from this year’s summit, however. Chinese President Xi Jinping chose to send his prime minister in his place. Russian President Vladimir Putin is attending online because of a warrant issued for his arrest by the International Criminal Court.

Still, several heads of state were gathering for discussions at Rio’s Museum of Modern Art on Sunday and Monday, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.

More than 30 nations have expressed interest in participating in BRICS, either as full members or partners.

Since October 7, 2023, the war of images has eclipsed the war of weapons. From Gaza’s pulverised hospitals and starving infants to mass graves and desperate fathers digging through rubble, every pixel captured on a smartphone strikes deeper than a missile.

These raw, unfiltered, and undeniable images have a far greater impact than any press conference or official speech. And for the first time in its history, Israel cannot delete them or drown them in propaganda.

The horrifying images of the Israeli army massacring people at aid distribution locations prompted newspaper Haaretz’s Gideon Levy to write on June 29: “Is Israel perpetrating genocide in Gaza? […] The testimonies and images emerging from Gaza don’t leave room for many questions.”

Even staunchly pro-Israel commentator and New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman no longer buys into the Israeli narrative. In a May 9 op-ed, addressed to US President Donald Trump, he declared: “This Israeli government is not our ally,” clarifying that it is “behaving in ways that threaten hard-core US interests in the region”.

Once, Israel’s narrative was protected by the gates of editorial rooms and the gravity of Western guilt. But the smartphone shattered those gates. What we see now is no longer what Israel tells us — it’s what Gaza shows us.

The platforms carrying these images — TikTok, WhatsApp, Instagram, X — don’t prioritise context; they prioritise virality. While older generations might look away, younger ones are glued to the stream of suffering, absorbed by every pixel, every siren, every moment of destruction. The global public is agitated, and this works against the Israeli interest. Israel is no longer just at war with its neighbours; it is at war with the lens itself.

The psychological toll of this visual war is reverberating deep inside Israeli society. For decades, Israelis were conditioned to see themselves as global narrators of trauma, not subjects of international scrutiny. But now, with videos of Israeli bombardment, flattened Gaza neighbourhoods, and emaciated children flooding every platform, many Israelis are grappling with a growing ethical predicament.

There is unease, even among centrists, that these visceral images are eroding Israel’s moral high ground. For the first time, public discourse in Israeli society includes fear of the mirror: what the world now sees and what Israelis are forced to confront.

Internationally, the effect has been even more destabilising for Israel’s diplomatic standing. Longstanding allies, once unconditionally supportive, now face growing domestic pressure from citizens who are not consuming official statements but TikTok’s live streams and Instagram’s image feed.

Lawmakers in Europe and North America are openly questioning arms shipments, trade deals, and diplomatic cover, not because of the briefings they have on Israeli war crimes but because their inboxes are flooded with screenshots of scattered body parts and starving children.

The battlefield has expanded into parliaments, campuses, city councils, and editorial rooms. This is the backlash of a war Israel cannot win with brute force. To regain control of the narrative, Israeli officials have pressured social media platforms to curb content they dislike. Yet even Israel’s most sophisticated public diplomacy efforts are struggling to keep pace with the virality of raw documentation.

Behind closed doors, the Israeli military is no longer merely worried about public relations; it is concerned about prosecution. The Israeli army has admonished soldiers for taking selfies and filming themselves demolishing Palestinian homes, warning that such material is now being harvested as evidence by international human rights organisations.

Footage and images from social media have already been used by activists to target Israeli servicemen abroad. In a number of cases, Israeli citizens have had to flee countries they were visiting due to war crimes complaints filed against them.

In the age of smartphones, the occupation is no longer just visible — it’s indictable.

In the past, Israel fought wars that it could explain. Now, it fights a battle it can only react to — often too belatedly and too clumsily. The smartphone captures what the missile conceals. Social media disseminates information that official briefings attempt to suppress. The haunting images, digitally preserved, ensure that we never forget any devastating atrocity, or act of brutality.

Images of conflict do not just convey information; they can also redefine our perceptions and influence our political positions. The powerful “Napalm Girl” photo that captured the aftermath of an attack by the US-allied South Vietnamese army on civilians during the Vietnam War had a profound impact on American society. It helped create a significant shift in public opinion regarding the war, accelerating the decision of the US government to end it.

Today, in Gaza, the stream of powerful images does not stop. Despite Israel’s best efforts, the global opinion is overwhelmingly against its genocidal war.

Smartphones have completely changed the nature of conflict by putting a camera in the hands of every witness. In this new era, Israel struggles to defeat the relentless, unfiltered visual record of its crimes that calls for justice.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Naim Qassem says his group will not surrender or lay down weapons in response to Israeli threats, despite pressure on the group to disarm.

The Hezbollah chief says the Lebanese group remains open to peace, but it will not disarm or back down from confronting Israel until it ends its air raids and withdraws from southern Lebanon.

“We cannot be asked to soften our stance or lay down arms while [Israeli] aggression continues,” Naim Qassem told thousands of supporters gathered in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Sunday for Ashura, an important day in the Shia Muslim calendar.

Ashura commemorates the 680 AD Battle of Karbala, in which Prophet Muhammad’s grandson, Imam Hussein, was killed after he refused to pledge allegiance to the Umayyad caliphate. For Shia Muslims, the day symbolises resistance against tyranny and injustice.

The Beirut area, a Hezbollah stronghold, was draped in yellow banners and echoed with chants of resistance as Qassem delivered his speech, flanked by portraits of his predecessor, Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed by Israel in September last year.

Israel launched a wide-scale assault on Lebanon on October 8, 2023 – a day after Palestinian group Hamas, which counts Hezbollah as an ally, stormed the Israeli territory, killing some 1,100 people and taking about 250 others captive.

The Hamas attack was immediately followed by Israel’s bombing of the Gaza Strip, which has killed more than 57,000 Palestinians, most of them women and children. The Israeli genocidal campaign was accompanied by a brutal blockade on entry of food and medical aid, bringing the enclave’s 2.3 million residents to the brink of starvation.

Israel’s simultaneous attack on Lebanon escalated into a full-scale war by September 2024, killing more than 4,000 people, including much of Hezbollah’s top leadership, and displacing nearly 1.4 million, according to official data. A United States-brokered ceasefire nominally ended the war in November.

However, since the ceasefire, Israel has continued to occupy five strategic border points in southern Lebanon and has carried out near-daily air strikes that it says aim to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its capabilities. Those strikes have killed some 250 people and wounded 600 others since November, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health.

“How can you expect us not to stand firm while the Israeli enemy continues its aggression, continues to occupy the five points, and continues to enter our territories and kill?” Qassem said in his video address.

“We will not be a part of legitimising the occupation in Lebanon and the region. We will not accept normalisation,” he added, in an apparent response to Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar saying his government was “interested” in such a move.

Qassem said Hezbollah’s weapons would not be on the negotiating table unless Israel “withdraws from the occupied territories, stops its aggression, releases the prisoners, and reconstruction begins”.

“Only then,” he said, “will we be ready for the second stage, which is to discuss national security and defence strategy.”

On Saturday, Israeli drones carried out four strikes on southern Lebanese towns, killing one person and wounding several others. Most of the Israeli attacks have targeted areas near the border, but Israeli warplanes have also hit residential neighbourhoods in Beirut’s southern districts, causing panic and mass evacuations.

Qassem’s speech came as the US envoy to Turkiye and Syria, Tom Barrack, was expected in Beirut on Monday. Lebanese officials say the US has demanded that Hezbollah disarm by the end of the year. Israel has warned it will continue striking Lebanon until the group is disarmed.

But Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun has repeatedly called on the US and its allies to rein in Israel’s attacks, noting that disarming Hezbollah is a “sensitive, delicate issue”.

Afghans given Sunday deadline amid concerns over security after conflict with Israel, but humanitarian groups warn that mass deportations could further destabilise Afghanistan.

Millions of Afghan migrants and refugees in Iran have been asked to leave or face arrest as a deadline set by the government comes to an end.

Sunday’s target date neared amid public concerns over security in the aftermath of the 12-day conflict with Israel, which the United States joined with air strikes on Iran’s uranium-enrichment facilities.

But humanitarian organisations warned that mass deportations could further destabilise Afghanistan, one of the world’s most impoverished nations. Iran is home to an estimated 4 million Afghan migrants and refugees, and many have lived there for decades.

In 2023, Tehran launched a campaign to expel foreigners it said were living in the country “illegally”. In March, the Iranian government ordered that Afghans without the right to remain should leave voluntarily by Sunday or face expulsion.

Since then, more than 700,000 Afghans have left, and hundreds of thousands of others face expulsion. More than 230,000 departed in June alone, the United Nations International Organization for Migration said.

The government has denied targeting Afghans, who have fled their homeland to escape war, poverty and Taliban rule.

Batoul Akbari, a restaurant owner, told Al Jazeera that Afghans living in Tehran were hurt by “anti-Afghan sentiment”, adding that it was heartbreaking to see “people sent away from the only home they have ever known”.

“Being born in Iran gives us the feeling of having two homelands,” Akbari said. “Our parents are from Afghanistan, but this is what we’ve always known as home.”

Mohammad Nasim Mazaheri, a student whose family had to leave Iran, agreed: “The deportations have torn families apart.”

The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimated that Iran deported more than 30,000 Afghans on average each day during the war with Israel, up from about 2,000 earlier.

“We have always striven to be good hosts, but national security is a priority, and naturally, illegal nationals must return,” Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said on Tuesday.

Late last month, the UNHCR said, of the 1.2 million returning Afghans, more than half had come from Iran after its government set its deadline on March 20.

“They are coming in buses, and sometimes, five buses arrive at one time with families and others, and the people are let out of the bus, and they are simply bewildered, disoriented and tired and hungry as well,” Arafat Jamal, the UNHCR representative in Afghanistan said as he described the scene at a border crossing.

“This has been exacerbated by the war, but I must say it has been part of an underlying trend that we have seen of returns from Iran, some of which are voluntary, but a large portion were also deportations.”

Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar, reporting from Tehran, said Afghans have increasingly been blamed for economic hardships, shortages and social issues in Iran.

“These accusations have been fuelled by political rhetoric and social media campaigns following 12 days of conflict between Iran and Israel and claims that Israel has recruited Afghans as spies,” he said.

Syria’s Civil Defence teams are battling wildfires sweeping through northeastern Syria, with the coastal region of Latakia among the worst hit. Emergency workers expressed concerns that unexploded ordnance from the war might be contributing to the rapid spread of the flames.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is visiting the United States on Monday, a visit analysts expect will focus on celebrating Israel and the US’s self-anointed victory against Iran and discussing a proposal for a ceasefire in Israel’s war on Gaza.

This is the third time this year Netanyahu will be meeting US President Donald Trump, who claims the US and Israel “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme during a 12-day war and that he would resume bombing Iran if it restarts nuclear activities.

Last week, Trump said Israel had agreed to conditions for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, which would allow all parties to work towards an end to Israel’s 21-month-long war on the besieged enclave.

On July 4, Hamas gave a “positive” response to Qatari and Egyptian mediators about the latest ceasefire proposal.

Is a ceasefire realistic?

On Friday, after Hamas’s response to the proposal, Trump said there could be a “deal next week” and promised to be “very firm” with Netanyahu to ensure a ceasefire.

Israel has since said that Hamas has requested changes to the proposal that it found “unacceptable”, but that Israeli negotiators would be going to Qatar on Sunday to discuss the proposal.

According to a leaked copy of the deal obtained by Al Jazeera, the ceasefire entails a 60-day pause in hostilities and a phased release of some of the 58 Israeli captives held in Gaza since a Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

Israel’s war on Gaza has killed at least 57,000 people, mostly women and children, in what United Nations experts, legal scholars and human rights groups describe as a genocide against Palestinians.

Many experts told Al Jazeera that they are not optimistic a temporary ceasefire will lead to a permanent end to the war.

“The way [the ceasefire talks] are being framed leaves me sceptical,” said Omar Rahman, an expert on Israel-Palestine with the Middle East Council for Global Affairs.

Rahman added that he believes Trump was focused on getting the Israeli captives released, but not on ending the war and the suffering of the people of Gaza.

Trump previously promised an end to the war after pushing for a ceasefire just days before he became president in January.

However, two months later, Trump did nothing when Israel unilaterally resumed its attacks on Gaza, killing thousands more people.

Mairav Zonszein, an expert on Israel-Palestine for the International Crisis Group, said that could happen again.

“It all rests on Trump and the US to sustain real pressure [on Netanyahu], but that is highly doubtful,” she told Al Jazeera.

“I’m optimistic there could be some kind of ceasefire, but longevity and the terms are highly questionable,” Zonszein said.

“It’s also possible we could see a ceasefire that does not last because … Israel still every so often just bombs something without repercussions [in Gaza],” she added.

Yaser al-Banna, a Palestinian journalist in Gaza, said many in the Strip are divided over whether a ceasefire will end the war. While everyone prays it will, some people cannot imagine Netanyahu sticking to a deal.

Netanyahu insists that the war will not end without a “total victory” over Hamas, a concept he has not defined.

“About half the people in Gaza are very pessimistic… The other half believes this time could be different due to shared interests among Israel, the Palestinians, Arab states and the US to end this war,” he said.

Glory and pragmatism

Many analysts believe that Trump is driven by his desire to strike grandiose deals in order to boast about his achievements in global affairs.

On Monday, he is likely to take credit for ostensibly dismantling Iran’s nuclear programme – even though that may not be true – and express his desire to retrieve the rest of the Israeli captives in Gaza.

He also wants to get the “Gaza issue” out of the way to pursue more normalisation deals between Israel and neighbouring Arab states, said Khaled Elgindy, an expert on Israel-Palestine and a professor of Arab Studies at Georgetown University in Washington, DC.

“Trump wants to be able to say that he got back the Israeli hostages… and got a Palestinian state… Then he can call himself master of the universe, but getting those things is much harder than he thinks,” Elgindy told Al Jazeera.

It’s unclear whether Netanyahu’s political calculations align with Trump’s ambitions.

Israel’s next parliamentary elections have to take place before October 2026, and Netanyahu could go to the polls sooner, riding on a likely wave of popularity if he succeeds in returning the remaining captives.

Like Trump, he would also tout what he terms a stunning victory against Iran to the Israeli public.

Those considerations are important because it is likely that Netanyahu’s frail far-right coalition, held together by pressure to prolong the war on Gaza, would collapse if a permanent ceasefire is reached, said Hugh Lovatt, an expert on Israel-Palestine with the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“At the end of [the possible] 60-day ceasefire, [Netanyahu] could go to elections by committing to a full end to the war and collapse his coalition; or he could go back to war to keep his [far-right] coalition together should he judge the time not right for elections,” he told Al Jazeera.

A possible, nearly unfathomable, outcome

Staying in office is particularly important for Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, who faces several domestic legal charges of fraud and bribery.

During his much-anticipated meeting with Trump, experts expect them to discuss Netanyahu’s trial, which many believe plays a large role in dictating his political calculations.

Netanyahu’s position as prime minister has enabled him to undermine the Israeli judicial system by appointing loyalists to high courts and delaying court hearings – an influence he would lose if his coalition unravels.

Trump is acutely aware of Netanyahu’s dilemma.

On June 25, he called on Israel to drop the charges against Netanyahu, referring to the trial as a “witch hunt”.Trump’s comments suggest that he is trying to pressure Netanyahu’s opponents to issue a pardon in exchange for ending the war on Gaza, said Georgetown’s Elgindy.

Elgindy referenced Trump’s recent social media post where he alluded to suspending military aid to Israel unless charges against Netanyahu were dropped.

“The United States of America spends Billions of Dollars a year, far more than any other Nation, protecting and supporting Israel. We are not going to stand for this,” Trump wrote on June 28.

That would be a major – almost unfathomable – decision to emerge out of the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu, said Elgindy.

“I don’t see him following through, but this is a typical [threat] that Trump would make,”  he told Al Jazeera.  “His [modus operandi] is to blackmail and coerce. That is his version of diplomacy.”

Elgindy added that it was distressing that Trump would threaten to cut military aid to Israel to protect Netanyahu and not beleaguered, starving Palestinians in Gaza.

The decision to pardon Netanyahu lies with Israel’s President Isaac Herzog, but such a move would be unprecedented, and the president has not indicated that he plans to do so.

Analysts believe Herzog may be willing to pardon Netanyahu if he agrees to exit political life, but not simply to secure a ceasefire.

Zonszein, from Crisis Group, adds that there are lawyers and justices in Israel who have warned “for years” that it is in the public’s interest to reach a plea bargain with Netanyahu due to the power he holds over the country.

Their only condition is for Netanyahu to agree to leave politics.

“I don’t think that is something Netanyahu is considering. If he was willing to leave political life, then he could have already negotiated a plea bargain,” she told Al Jazeera.