HELLO AND HAPPY THURSDAY. IT’S ME, ANITA LYNNE CHABRIA, COMING TO YOU IN ALL CAPS — BECAUSE THAT’S NOW HOW POLITICS IS DONE.
No, I won’t really torment you with shift-lock psychosis. But we will be diving into Gov. Gavin Newsom’s wildly successful social media trolling of Donald Trump. Although much has been written about his parody of the president’s bombastic style, replete with weird syntax and tongue-in-cheek self-aggrandizement, it turns out it’s far more than just entertaining.
More than any other Democratic presidential hopeful out there, the social media offensive has raised both his profile and political fortunes — and highlighted some uncomfortable truths about American politics in this moment when the vast majority of voters are getting their information in 20-second snippets on TikTok, YouTube and X: Social media is not the sideshow, it’s the main event.
But it’s about more than GCN (Gavin Christopher Newsom, as he now signs his posts) making it to the Resolute desk.
Whether you love Newsom or hate him, California is the epicenter on the resistance to Trump’s push to expand presidential powers into authoritarianism. In courts, in the Legislature and on social media, this is the state that has fought back most effectively.
Newsom’s recent decision to throw caution and subservience to the wind is at the heart of that, a move from frenemy to fighter that is essential to shaping and protecting the future of our democracy. One cheeky post at a time.
The seed of inspiration
How did we wind up here? Although January may seem like eons ago, it was in reality only nine short months since Newsom showed up uninvited on the tarmac in L.A. to greet Trump, even embrace him, as the president came to view the fire damage in Pacific Palisades and Altadena.
Newsom was still in that frenemy phase, trying to reason with, flatter and cajole a president who demands praise, but who, like the fable of the scorpion and the frog, will always attack because it’s in his nature. California needs fire aid, and as Newsom said at the time, “I hope he comes with a spirit of cooperation and collaboration. That’s the spirit to which we welcome him.”
That, however, didn’t work out great. Trump not only dillydallied with fire money, threatening conditions, he also sent the National Guard into L.A. for a nonexistent emergency around immigration protests, then strong-armed Texas into redrawing voting maps to help ensure MAGA keeps control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections.
So now California has Proposition 50, the effort to redraw our own maps to find more Democratic seats, and a hoppin’-mad governor (get that frog reference?) who knows a scorpion when he sees one.
What does this have to do with social media, you ask? In mid-August GCN wrote to DJT with one last peace offering: California would stop its push for redistricting if other states stopped as well. No luck, big surprise.
But staffers at Newsom’s office were in a mood, and thought it would be funny to tweet out the last paragraph of that letter in all caps, Trump-style. The only change? Switching the last line from the statesman-like “And America will be better for it” to the Trump-favored “Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
And there, in a moment of frustration and gallows humor — no grand strategy intended — the seed of inspiration was planted.
DONALD TRUMP, IF YOU DO NOT STAND DOWN, WE WILL BE FORCED TO LEAD AN EFFORT TO REDRAW THE MAPS IN CA TO OFFSET THE RIGGING OF MAPS IN RED STATES. BUT IF THE OTHER STATES CALL OFF THEIR REDISTRICTING EFFORTS, WE WILL DO THE SAME. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
— Governor Newsom Press Office (@GovPressOffice) August 11, 2025
The Result
That post has received 5 million views so far, and emboldened Newsom to go further. Since then, his trolling has been both prolific, pointed, and extremely popular.
The X account where Newsom does most of his smack-posting, @GovPressOffice, gained more than 500,000 followers in recent weeks, and racked up more than 480 million impressions. That’s up 450%, according to CNN’s Harry Enten.
He’s been in demand on traditional media as well (and seems to be living rent-free in the brains of right-wing Fox commentators), and has made himself available to digital content creators — who have helped him reach more than 30 million views across various platforms.
Newsom’s speech about the National Guard coming into L.A. — at nine minutes long, an eternity these days — was viewed more 40 million times in a week.
And, as Enten also pointed out, 75% of California Democrats now say they want Newsom to run for president, and betting markets give Newsom a 24% chance of being the Democratic nominee, rating him with the highest potential in the pack.
Love-bombed with all that success, Newsom has pushed further into the rage-baiting. The “GCN” sign-off? That came from Newsom himself. But there’s a team behind the effort, and they’re running 24/7 to keep the big, beautiful bludgeoning going.
But what about democracy?
Great for Newsom, you say, but how does a meme of him with bulging biceps save democracy? Here’s the thing I learned covering the rise not just of Trump, but of the extremist and fringe ideologies such as QAnon that fueled his base: It would not happen without social media.
Social media is the sauce that has seasoned this change in our politics, which sounds obvious but is much deeper than most realize. Social media created communities, communities largely without physical or ethical boundaries. Anything goes, and the more intense and crazy, the deeper it tends to go. The more people believe, the more involved they become.
Short take: Social media spreads extremism.
But can social media also spread resistance?
The hardest parts of an autocracy are division and fear. It feels lonely and scary to speak out. Newsom has done two crucial things with his social media barrage.
First, he showed us that the Republicans were right all along. For years, the far-right has found Trump’s social media hilarious, and all the funnier because Democrats were outraged by its crassness, vulgarity and childishness. Many Democrats found no humor in a president behaving in ways that would get their own teenagers grounded.
But as soon as Newsom did it, Democrats were the ones who found it funny, especially the irony-free Republican outrage. And empowering. And awesome. Suddenly, they got the joke.
In copying, Newsom was subverting — not just holding up a mirror to the bad behavior, but revealing that Democrats have in fact had a stick somewhere unnecessary and need to admit that low humor tickles the American fancy. He has given Democrats something light and amusing to rally around, creating community that has been sadly lacking.
And community is where resistance thrives, same as with extremism. When people feel not alone, they feel stronger.
That’s the second thing Newsom has brought with his trolling. Democrats, Republicans, democracy-backers of any stripe are relieved to laugh at Trump together — because nothing undermines his power more than a collective chuckle at his expense.
Authorities in Argentina have opened a criminal investigation into the daughter of a former Nazi official and her spouse after an 18th-century painting stolen from a late Jewish art dealer was recovered from one of their properties.
Prosecutors announced the probe on Thursday, which will focus on Juan Carlos Cortegoso and his wife Patricia Kadgien, whose father was the fugitive Nazi officer Friedrich Kadgien.
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The elder Kadgien died in the late 1970s. He spent the final decades of his life in Argentina, having fled Germany at the end of World War II.
He is believed to have brought with him priceless artworks looted from the collections of Jewish families and businesses, including that of the Dutch art dealer Jacques Goudstikker.
Goudstikker had amassed a collection of nearly 1,400 pieces, according to the meticulous records he kept.
But that made his collection a target for Nazi officials like Hermann Goring, who sought to seize the artwork for himself. The elder Kadgien was Goring’s financial adviser.
It is unclear how Kadgien came to own Portrait of a Lady by Giuseppe Ghislandi, an Italian portraitist prolific during the Baroque and Rococo periods.
The painting, a large portrait of the Contessa Colleoni holding gloves and a book, had not been seen in decades. As far as researchers knew, only black-and-white photographs of the artwork survived.
Goudstikker had been forced to sell many of his artworks to Nazi officials as the Holocaust unfolded in Europe.
In May 1940, the art dealer would ultimately die from a fall on board the SS Bodegraven, as he fled a genocide that would claim at least six million Jewish lives, as well as millions of prisoners-of-war, dissidents, LGBTQ people and those with disabilities.
Goudstikker’s heirs have been seeking to recover his collection ever since.
Prosecutors display Giuseppe Ghislandi’s 18th-century painting Portrait of a Lady at a news conference in Mar del Plata, Argentina, on September 3 [Christian Heit/AP Photo]
Thought lost, Portrait of a Lady reappeared suddenly last month, as the result of internet sleuthing.
Dutch journalists with the publication Algemeen Dagblad had been investigating the late Kadgien’s dealings with the Nazis, and they stumbled across a real estate listing from February for a house belonging to his daughter, Patricia Kadgien.
A picture in the listing showed Portrait of a Lady hanging above a green velvet couch.
The journalists published their findings on August 25, and soon after, police in Argentina raided the residence, which was located in the coastal city of Mar del Plata.
But the painting was nowhere to be found. Instead, authorities reported they had recovered other paintings, this time from the 19th century, that they suspected may also be Nazi-looted artwork.
A tapestry was found hanging where Portrait of a Lady was once photographed. The real estate listing, meanwhile, appeared to have been removed.
Police have since raided several properties belonging to Patricia Kadgien and her sister. On Wednesday, it was announced that the painting had finally been recovered.
Juan Carlos Cortegoso, husband of Patricia Kadgien, attends a hearing on September 4 [Jose Scalzo/Reuters]
But in Thursday’s hearing, federal authorities revealed they were charging Kadgien, 59, and her husband, Cortegoso, 62, with attempting a cover-up.
Prosecutor Carlos Martinez accused the couple of hiding the painting, despite being “aware that the artwork was being sought by the criminal justice system and international authorities”. That, he said, amounted to obstruction of justice and concealment.
“It was only after several police raids that they turned it in,” Martinez explained.
Patricia Kadgien and Cortegoso were briefly put under house arrest on Monday, though that was lifted in favour of a 180-day travel ban and a requirement that they seek court approval before leaving the house.
A lawyer for the couple reportedly asked a civil court this week to allow them to sell the painting, but that request was denied.
Martinez, meanwhile, told journalists on Thursday that Marei von Saher, one of Goudstikker’s heirs, had already reached out to the Federal Bureau of Investigation in the United States to ensure the painting’s restitution.
He explained that prosecutors had requested Portrait of a Lady be held at the Buenos Aires Holocaust Museum for now.
Anita Chabria and David Lauter bring insights into legislation, politics and policy from California and beyond. In your inbox three times per week.
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SACRAMENTO — There are echoes from California Republicans’ disastrous past in their solid support of the Trump administration’s ugly raids targeting Latinos suspected of illegal immigration.
California’s GOP apparently still hasn’t learned. Scaring, insulting and angering people is not an effective recruiting tool. It doesn’t draw them to your side. It drives them into the opposition camp.
That should have been a lesson learned three decades ago when Republicans strongly pushed a harsh anti-illegal immigration ballot initiative, Proposition 187. It became principally responsible for changing California from a politically competitive state to one where the GOP is essentially irrelevant.
The in-depth poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies delved into voter attitudes toward Trump’s mass deportation actions.
On the basic question of his immigration enforcement strategy, 69% of registered voters disapproved and just 29% approved. But there was a sharp difference between political parties. Democrats almost unanimously disapproved — 95%. And 72% of independents were opposed. But 79% of Republicans approved.
Interviewers also asked about specifics. And GOP voters were with Trump all the way.
Strong majorities of Republicans disagreed that federal agents “have unfairly targeted Latino communities for their race or ethnicity,” believed the raids have “primarily focused” on undocumented “serious” criminals — although evidence shows that many law-abiders have been snatched — and thought “all undocumented immigrants need to be deported.”
Smaller Republican majorities disagreed that detained undocumented immigrants “have a right to due process” and a court hearing — although the due process clause of the 5th Amendment indicates they do — and agreed that “agents should expand enforcement into schools, hospitals, parks and other public locations.”
Democrats and independents expressed emphatically opposite views — and they greatly outnumber Republicans in California.
The parties also reported diametrically opposite feelings when viewing news accounts of raids by federal agents. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans said it made them feel “hopeful, like justice is finally being served.” Democrats said they were “enraged and/or sad. What is happening is unfair.”
Republicans were more divided on whether immigration agents should be required to show clear identification, such as wearing badges. Armed agents have been going incognito in street clothes, traveling in unmarked vehicles and wearing masks.
Among GOP voters, 50% opposed requiring identification and 45% supported the idea.
Two bills currently are awaiting votes in the state Assembly to require agent identification and ban masks in most circumstances.
“Agents have been running around wearing essentially ski masks, grabbing people, throwing them into unmarked cars and disappearing them,” says Sen. Mark Wiener (D-San Francisco), author of the mask ban bill. “In a democracy, we don’t have secret police running around masked.”
Listening to Republican voters, I’m hearing reverberations from 1994 when that GOP generation overwhelmingly backed Proposition 187, led by Gov. Pete Wilson, who was subsequently demonized by Democrats and, particularly, Latinos.
That now-infamous measure would have denied most public services — including schooling — to undocumented immigrants, and turned teachers and nurses into snitches. It passed by a landslide, but a federal judge ruled it unconstitutional.
Republicans voted for Proposition187 by 3 to 1 and independents by 3 to 2, according to a Los Angeles Times exit poll. Democrats opposed it by 2 to 1.
White people voted for Proposition 187 by 59% to 41% — the exact victory margin — but Latinos opposed it by 78% to 22%. Today, there are a lot fewer white people and lots more Latinos in California.
And it instigated a hemorrhaging of Republican voters in California. In the November presidential election, Republicans amounted to only 25% of registered voters. In 1994, they were 37%. Many have since shifted to registering as independents, who amounted to only 10% back then and are 22% now. Democrats also have lost slightly to nonpartisan ranks, falling from 49% to 46%.
No Republican candidate has won a statewide race since 2006, and Democrats hold supermajorities in both legislative houses.
The GOP has been touting an uptick in Latino support in November’s election. But is that a trend, or just the reflection of a sorry Democratic presidential campaign? How will Latino voters react to immigration agents chasing people through farm fields, seizing teens without telling their parents and stalking picnickers?
“Republicans can talk about crime and homelessness and gas prices all they want but the immigration issue is a boulder in the road that will keep large numbers in California from listening to what they say on any other issue,” says Dan Schnur, a USC and UC Berkeley political science instructor who was Wilson’s spokesman in 1994.
GOP consultant Mike Madrid, who has written a book about how Latinos are transforming democracy, says Republicans “are limiting what could be a tidal wave of voters in their direction. They’re their own worst enemies.”
He adds: “Latinos are primarily economic voters but will respond when attacked. As long as the GOP resorts to anti-Latino appeals they’ll fight back.”
Republican voter attitudes also are symptomatic of today’s extremely polarized politics.
“Wherever Trump decides to steer the ship, Republicans are following him. Trump is the Pied Piper here,” says Mark DiCamillo, the IGS pollster.
Republican consultant Kevin Spillane theorized that Republican respondents in the poll were “rallying around Trump. They thought they were really being asked about him.”
Whatever. They need to evolve into the increasingly diverse 21st century. We can secure the border without storming churches, hospitals and schools.
TELLURIDE, Colo. — It’s customary at Telluride for a director premiering a movie to step onstage, say a few words and slip away before the lights go down. On Friday night, before unveiling her new film “Hamnet,” Chloé Zhao admitted she couldn’t find the right words. For a film centered on William Shakespeare, the most famous wordsmith in history, that felt oddly fitting.
Instead, the 43-year-old Zhao led the packed Palm Theater in a meditative “ritual” she and her cast had practiced throughout the shoot, from before the script was even written until the final day on set. She asked the audience to close their eyes, place a hand over their hearts and feel the weight of their bodies in the seats and the surrounding Rocky Mountains holding them safe. Together, the crowd exhaled three long, loud sighs, then tapped their chests in unison, repeating softly: “This is my heart. This is my heart. This is my heart.”
By the time the film ended, those same hearts were left aching. Adapted from Maggie O’Farrell’s 2020 novel, “Hamnet” tells the story of Shakespeare’s marriage to Agnes (played by Jessie Buckley) and the devastating death of their 11-year-old son, Hamnet. Paul Mescal plays Shakespeare — not the untouchable bard of legend but a husband and father reckoning with grief. At once grounded and dreamlike, the film drew perhaps the most rapturous and unanimous response of any debut in this year’s lineup.
Eight years ago, Zhao came to Telluride with “The Rider,” fresh from Cannes and still largely unknown. In 2020 she returned with “Nomadland,” which received a Telluride-sponsored drive-in screening at Pasadena’s Rose Bowl due to the pandemic and went on to win best picture and make Oscar history, with Zhao becoming only the second woman — and the first and only woman of color — to win the directing prize. Then came Marvel’s “Eternals,” a massive undertaking that thrust Zhao into the franchise machine and brought with it a bruising critical reception. With “Hamnet,” she’s back to a smaller canvas, trading cosmic spectacle for intimate human drama.
On Sunday morning in Telluride, still processing the reaction to her latest film, Zhao sat down to talk — speaking so softly that even in a hushed room her words can be hard to catch — about why she took on O’Farrell’s story, how she approached Shakespeare’s world and the delicate task of turning heartbreak into art.
Jessie Buckley, center, in the movie “Hamnet.”
(Agata Grzybowska / Focus Features)
When I interviewed you for “The Rider” in 2018 you said you’re a very pessimistic person and when you get a good review, you’re just waiting for the bad one to drop. What are you feeling right now?Did you expect anything like the reaction “Hamnet” has received? I was nervous. I’ve walked through fires. I’ve been through the fire — a very painful fire — and I think there is probably a bit of fear around that.
What was the fire? You mean the reaction to “Eternals”? I’m not going to say out it loud, because when I do, things always get … [trails off]. Let’s just say we were very scared.
I think the fear mainly came from the fact that we felt so sure of what we experienced. It changed all of our lives and mine so profoundly that it’s still reverberating. You think: Were we crazy? And no one else will get it but us?
You go through this long, treacherous journey to deliver these things to safety and now it’s very tender because you look back at all the loss and the sacrifices along the way and you haven’t really had time to process it.
I’m curious what your history was with Shakespeare growing up in China and then moving to England and later Los Angeles as a teenager. What kind of early impression did he make on you? Shakespeare is very revered in China. In Chinese theater, they do Chinese versions of his plays. When I studied in the U.K., I didn’t speak English at the time and I did have to learn Shakespeare, which was very difficult. I don’t think I’m anywhere near where Paul and Jesse are with their understanding of Shakespeare. The language was always a barrier but the archetypal element of his stories was big for me — particularly “Macbeth.” In high school in Los Angeles, I performed Lady Macbeth’s speech on the stage because everybody had to do some kind of monologue for a project. And I barely spoke English.
You’ve said you initially weren’t sure that you were the right person to direct this movie. What was your hesitation? There were three elements to that. One is that I’m not a mother. I never felt particularly maternal. People in my life say, “That’s not true, Chloé,” but I don’t see myself stepping into that archetype at all. The second was the idea of a period film — how can I be authentic and fluid in a period film, where you can’t just make things up in the moment, you can’t be spontaneous? The third was Shakespeare. I wondered if I needed to be scholarly.
So how did you come around? I was driving near Four Corners, New Mexico, when Amblin called. I said, “No, thank you.” Steven [Spielberg] really wanted me to consider it. Then my agent said Paul Mescal wanted to meet me. I didn’t know his work. “Aftersun” was the secret screening here [in Telluride 2022], and we went for a walk by the creek. I watched him talking and thought, “Could he play young Shakespeare?” He already read the book. Then I read it and thought, if Maggie [O’Farrell] can write this with me, she can show me that world. As soon as I read the book, I said, “Can you set a meeting with Jessie Buckley?” I couldn’t see anyone else but her as Agnes.
Paul Mescal as William Shakespeare in the movie “Hamnet.”
(Agata Grzybowska / Focus Features)
You’d just come off “Eternals” after making small films like “Songs My Brothers Taught Me” and “Nomadland.” Now you’re back with something more intimate again. Did it feel like a reset? Every child has its own beauty and troubles. This budget was maybe six or seven times “Nomadland,” but much less than “Eternals.” But it’s also a period film, which has its own challenges. I come from a tradition of: Tell me how much money you have and I’ll make something with it.
But I changed a lot after “Nomadland” and “Eternals.” In my 30s, I wanted to chase the horizon. I didn’t want it to ever end. I’d just keep running. Then, at the end of “Eternals,” I felt I couldn’t film another sunset that would satisfy me the way in the way it had with “The Rider” and “Nomadland.” I went through a lot of difficult personal times and pushing midlife, I realized I’d been running like a cowboy, like a nomad.
When you stop running and stop chasing horizons and you stay still, the only place you can go is above or below. I descended pretty heavily these last four years. By the time I got to “Hamnet,” I was ready. The difference now is a different kind of humanity: older, more vertical.
We know so little about Shakespeare or his son. Some parts of your film are grounded, others dreamlike. How did you balance that? First of all, what’s real? Ancient mystics tried to understand what is being. “To be or not to be” goes beyond suicidal thought — it’s about existence itself. Every film has its own truth. For me, the truest thing is what’s present in the moment. I hired department heads and actors with knowledge of the history, but also the capacity to stay present and shift as we go. If someone came in too factual and literal, I said no. I wanted people who could do the research but also stay alive to the present.
Shakespeare’s name isn’t even spoken until late in the movie. This isn’t the icon — he’s a husband and father. Was it appealing to free him from the iconography? Maggie’s book laid the foundation, really focusing on Agnes. For the film, I wanted it to be about two people who see and are seen by each other. They’re archetypal characters. I’ve studied Jungian psychology and Hindu Tantra — the energies of masculine and feminine, being and doing, birth and death. If we don’t have a healthy connection to our roots, those forces battle within us. By creating two characters who embody that, the story can work at a collective level and an internal one. The alchemy of creativity lets those forces coexist. Hopefully it becomes something more than a story about marriage or the death of a child.
Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal in the movie “Hamnet.”
(Agata Grzybowska / Focus Features )
The loss of a child is hard to film and for audiences to watch. We’ve seen it tackled in different ways on screen, from “Ordinary People” to “Manchester by the Sea.” How did you approach portraying that kind of grief honestly without it being too much for the audience to bear? It might be for some people, which is understandable. I love both those films you mentioned very much and watched them multiple times. I’ve been making films about grief for a while. I don’t think about what’s too much or too little. Agnes’ wailing — I could do that right now in front of you. We should be allowed to. The silence for thousands of years has done great damage.
How do you mean? Think about ancient warriors coming back from battle — they danced, screamed, healed together. In Tantra, sexuality was part of healing. Now it’s: Talk to a therapist, take medication, go back to your family. The body is restricted. Telling a woman to be quiet when she gave birth and pinning her down. We know why this control happens. But I think people are responding to films where actors are embodied, because we miss that.
How do you see grief as a through-line in all your films? All my films start with characters who’ve lost what defined them: dreams, home, purpose, faith. They grieve who they thought they were in order to become who they truly are. That’s grief on an individual and collective level. I wasn’t raised to understand grief. So I made films to give characters catharsis and through that, myself.
My friend [“Sinners” director] Ryan Coogler, who knows me so well, sat me down after seeing “Hamnet” and he said, “The other films were beautiful but you hid behind things. This is the first time I saw you in there. You’re finally being seen.” It took four films, working with that kind of grief and fear to get to that point.
The Oscar chatter has already started. You’ve obviously been through this before. How do you tune that out and just focus on what’s in front of you? The same way that me, Paul and Jessie were doing on set. We made the film by being present. It’s difficult, so I’m trying to take that practice daily — just saying, “OK, today is all we have.” It’s flattering and nice but after what I’ve experienced in my career, you cannot possibly predict how things are going to go. I never expected “Nomadland” to go on that journey. So I surrender to the river.
Do you know what you’re doing next? I just wrapped the pilot on the new “Buffy the Vampire Slayer” series, which is set 25 years later. My company is part of developing it. The fandom is so special to me and I’m excited about how that’s going to go into the world. Then I think I want to do a play. I was working on “Our Town” and I had to let that go in order to do “Hamnet.” But I figured maybe I’ll learn something from this film and come back to the stage.
The industry feels pretty shaky right now: fewer jobs, studio consolidation, anxiety around AI. As a filmmaker, how do you see the state of the business and the art form? I sense we’re at a threshold — not just the film business, everything. It’s uncomfortable. We’re like Will standing at the edge of the river when, at least in our film, the “to be or not to be” monologue was born. We can’t go back and we don’t know how to go forward. In physics, when two opposing forces pull so strongly, a new equilibrium bursts out. That’s how the universe expands. I think we’re there. We can kick and scream or we can surrender, hug our loved ones and focus on what we can do today.
Hopefully I’m not so pessimistic now. Or at least a little bit less.
When things seem too good to be true on Wall Street, they usually are.
For more than a century, the stock market has stood tall as the premier wealth creator, with stocks generating a higher average annual return than bonds, commodities, and real estate. But getting from Point A to B can often be an adventure.
Just five months ago, the unveiling of President Donald Trump’s tariff and trade policy sent the benchmark S&P 500(^GSPC -0.64%), growth-fueled Nasdaq Composite(^IXIC -1.15%), and ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average(^DJI -0.20%) spiraling lower. The S&P 500 endured its fifth-steepest two-day percentage decline since 1950, while the Nasdaq Composite plummeted into its first bear market in three years.
However, sentiment on Wall Street can shift at the drop of a hat. Since President Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher “reciprocal tariffs” on April 9, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have been off to the races, with all three indexes achieving multiple record-closing highs.
The stock market has rarely been pricier than it is right now
To preface the following discussion, historical precedent can’t concretely guarantee what’s going to happen in the future. If there was a metric or correlative event that could guarantee directional moves in the stock market, every investor would be using it by now.
Value tends to be a subjective term that varies from one individual to the next. What you consider to be expensive might be viewed as a bargain by another investor. This dynamic is one of the reasons the stock market can be so unpredictable.
When most investors “value” a stock, they turn to the time-tested price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), which is arrived at by dividing a company’s share price by its trailing-12-month earnings per share (EPS). The P/E is a quick and easy way to evaluate mature businesses, but it’s not without its faults. This traditional valuation measure doesn’t account for a company’s growth rate, and it can be rather useless during recessions and shock events (e.g., the pandemic).
When back-tested, arguably no valuation tool provides a more-encompassing, apples-to-apples comparison of stock valuations than the S&P 500’s Shiller P/E ratio, which is also referred to as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio (CAPE ratio).
The Shiller P/E is based on average inflation-adjusted EPS over the trailing decade. This means short-lived recessions and shock events won’t skew valuation multiples.
With the S&P 500 crossing above 6,500 for the first time in its storied history on Aug. 28, the Shiller P/E ratio closed at 39.18, which is its high-water mark for the current S&P 500 bull market. There are only two other periods spanning 154 years when the Shiller P/E has been higher:
During the first week of January 2022, the S&P 500’s Shiller P/E surpassed 40 by a few hundredths.
In December 1999, the Shiller P/E hit its all-time high of 44.19.
Historical precedent comes into play when examining what has happened to stocks following these previous periods of premium valuations. The 2022 bear market wiped out a quarter of the S&P 500’s value and lopped off more than a third of the Nasdaq’s value.
Meanwhile, the dot-com bubble, which took shape just months after December 1999, saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lose 49% and 78%, respectively, on a peak-to-trough basis.
In fact, any instance in which the S&P 500’s Shiller P/E ratio has surpassed and sustained 30 for a period of at least two months has been a harbinger of significant downside. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and/or Nasdaq Composite lost between 20% and 89% of their value following the five previous occurrences of the Shiller P/E topping 30.
With the stock market closing in on its second-priciest valuation since January 1871, history couldn’t be clearer on what’s to eventually come.
Image source: Getty Images.
Widening the lens leads to a completely different outlook
But there’s a big difference in attempting to forecast short-term directional moves for Wall Street’s major stock indexes and widening the lens to look at the big picture. While the Shiller P/E has an immaculate track record of forecasting eventual bear market downturns, few (if any) asset classes have proved more resilient over multiple decades than stocks.
For example, approximately 80 years have passed since the end of World War II. Since September 1945, the U.S. has navigated its way through a dozen recessions. The average recession has endured just 10 months, and none of these 12 downturns stuck around for longer than 18 months.
On the other end of the spectrum, the typical period of economic growth has endured for about five years, with two expansions surpassing the 10-year mark. Short-lived downturns and extended periods of growth are favorable to corporate EPS expansion over time.
In June 2023, the analysts at Bespoke Investment Group published a data set on X (formerly Twitter) that examined the calendar length of every bull and bear market in the S&P 500 dating back to the start of the Great Depression in 1929.
Bespoke found the average S&P 500 decline of 20% or greater lasted just 286 calendar days, or approximately 9.5 months. But over this nearly 94-year stretch, the typical bull market was sustained for 1,011 calendar days, or two years and nine months.
While it’s anyone’s guess what might happen to stocks a month, six months, or even a year from now, patience and perspective have proved invaluable to investors willing to look to the horizon. The S&P 500 has never been down over any rolling 20-year period, including dividends, which is a strong endorsement for the U.S. economy and stocks in the decades to come.
Chamath Palihapitiya just launched a new SPAC, called American Exceptionalism Acquisition Corp.
For the first time in nearly three years, investors (finally!) have something to talk about that isn’t related to artificial intelligence (AI).
The latest buzz on Wall Street comes from a familiar but controversial corner of the stock market: special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). And perhaps unsurprisingly, the sponsor behind the deal is none other than Chamath Palihapitiya — often referred to as the “SPAC King.”
While his early launches drew enormous hype, Palihapitiya’s SPAC stocks have been anything but royal — often leaving retail investors holding the bag. This track record has led some to question whether SPACs are good investments at all.
Still, Palihapitiya is back in the arena — this time with American Exceptionalism Acquisition Corp., a name as ambitious as the investor behind it. The question now is whether this latest venture signals a genuine comeback or simply another high-profile gamble in a market rife with wary investors.
Will Palihapitiya’s new SPAC succeed? Read on to explore what history shows and what it could mean for investors.
Who is Chamath Palihapitiya?
Chamath Palihapitiya began his career in management roles at AOL and Facebook (now Meta Platforms). Outside of those corporate posts, he proved fortunate — and shrewd — in backing early-stage start-ups that ultimately found lucrative exits through acquisitions by larger companies.
Eventually, Palihapitiya left Facebook to pursue investing full-time — launching his own venture capital firm, Social Capital.
Fast-forward to the SPAC boom between 2020 and 2021, and Palihapitiya instantly became one of the most vocal voices and recognizable personalities in the space.
While admirers paint Palihapitiya as a bold contrarian investor willing to challenge Wall Street’s status quo, the uneven performance of many of these SPACs has given critics plenty of ammunition.
What is a SPAC?
A SPAC, often referred to as a “blank check company,” is a shell entity that raises money from investors through a public offering with the sole purpose of merging with a private company. Once a target is identified, the SPAC combines with that company — instantly taking it public without the lengthy, complex process of a traditional initial public offering (IPO).
The main difference between a SPAC and an IPO comes down to structure and timing. In an IPO, a company works with an investment bank to underwrite the deal — a process that can take months as bankers conduct roadshows, pitch to accredited investors, and determine an appropriate valuation.
By contrast, a SPAC is already listed on an exchange, so merging with it allows a company to bypass much of the regulatory and logistical friction.
For companies, SPACs provide a quicker, simpler alternative to the traditional IPO process. For investors, they offer exposure to buzzy businesses — often unicorns — that might otherwise be off-limits before they go public.
Image source: Getty Images.
Are SPACs good investments?
Just like traditional IPO stocks, determining whether a SPAC is a good investment ultimately comes down to “it depends.” While Palihapitiya’s most recognizable SPACs are often cited, it’s important to remember that he also backed some companies that later delisted or even went bankrupt. Taken as a whole, Palihapitiya’s personal track record in the SPAC arena has been disappointing.
That said, not every SPAC has fared poorly. Some companies have managed to carve out a path to success.
Hims & Hers Health has become something of a darling among retail investors thanks to its bold entrance into the red-hot weight loss market, going toe-to-toe with GLP-1 juggernauts Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. Moreover, AST Spacemobile and Rocket Lab have attracted speculative enthusiasm from investors captivated by the space exploration economy. Meanwhile, Vertiv has enjoyed tailwinds from the AI boom as its liquid cooling systems prove critical to ongoing data center infrastructure investment.
In other words, while some SPACs have thrived, these seem to be exceptions rather than the norm. American Exceptionalism Acquisition Corp. may succeed in capturing headlines, but for smart investors, it should be viewed as a speculative bet rather than a proven opportunity.
Considering both Palihapitiya’s past ventures and the results of the broader SPAC landscape, history suggests caution is warranted.
Adam Spatacco has positions in Eli Lilly, Meta Platforms, Novo Nordisk, and SoFi Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Hims & Hers Health, Meta Platforms, and Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool recommends MP Materials and Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
St David’s, a cathedral city named after Wales’s patron saint, Saint David, is where his final resting place is located. Its city status was traditionally granted due to its grand cathedral, believed to have been constructed between 1180 and 1182.
It remains a lesser-known coastal treasure amongst UK holidaymakers.
However, those willing to embark on a few hours’ drive through Wales’s rolling green hills to the edge of the west coast will be pleasantly surprised by what this small town has to offer. St Davids’ allure lies in its rich history, being home to one of Wales’ most iconic religious sites and a pilgrimage destination for centuries.
Tourists can freely explore the cathedral, and its grounds provide an idyllic setting for a leisurely stroll on a sunny day. Despite attracting numerous visitors throughout the year, the area maintains much of its understated charm, remaining surprisingly quiet and compact, reports the Express.
The stunning Whitesands Bay, Pembrokeshire(Image: Getty)
Beyond the historical landmarks of the cathedral and the original gothic ruins of Bishop’s Palace, St Davids boasts a plethora of scenic walks and swimming spots for nature enthusiasts. This quaint, cobbled town is not only home to a stunning stretch of beach but also offers cliff-side walks and hikes.
Whitesands Beach stands as the principal expanse of pristine white sand in the region, sweeping northward towards St Davids headland and serving as one of the nation’s renowned surfing destinations.
It’s ideal for days spent constructing sandcastles, basking in the sunshine, or taking a refreshing dip.
For those seeking more thrilling pursuits, windsurfing and kayaking prove particularly popular pastimes.
The tiny city has acted as a pilgrimage site for centuries(Image: Getty)
One delighted TripAdvisor reviewer said: “What an absolutely phenomenal beach. The beach itself is so clean; the water was crystal clear, and there was no seaweed. You can go out for quite a way, and it was just unbelievable.
“The family loved it and couldn’t believe how quiet it was, and even when it got a little busier later in the day, it was still so pleasant, and this is all before the walks. The mountain walks around the beach were quite simply breathtaking. Some lovely places tucked away; we even found a cove we had all to ourselves.”
For those wanting to venture even deeper into Pembrokeshire’s stunning landscape, there’s a concealed gem called Porthmelgan Beach, merely a 20-minute stroll from Whitesands Bay.
This rather more isolated location boasts equally brilliant white sands but tends to be considerably quieter, with no parking facilities, eateries or wave riders to be found. Another gem is the Blue Lagoon, a 20-minute drive from the city centre, boasting turquoise waters and rocky landscapes.
The Blue Lagoon near Abereiddi(Image: Getty)
It’s the perfect spot for a peaceful swim, a relaxing kayak ride or even a daring cliff dive, all while enjoying stunning coastal views.
Venturing back into the city’s charming cobbled streets, you’ll find a handful of pubs that quickly fill up in the summer with patrons enjoying their post-walk pints. These establishments often feature live music in the evenings, creating a lively atmosphere, and serve traditional pub food.
However, it’s worth noting that without a reservation, you might struggle to secure a cosy spot.
As with any seaside town, St Davids boasts numerous ice cream parlours and a mix of independent shops and larger brands in the city centre. So when you’ve had your fill of coastal walks, a stroll through the city streets and a browse through the shops can provide a refreshing change of pace.
Leila Dean, from Manchester, urged people to visit the small village after saying it was one of the best places she ever visited. The traveller posted her advice in a TikTok video
The village has been described to be the perfect place for a getaway (stock image)(Image: Thomas Faull via Getty Images)
For several people, the arrival of September equals the beginning of autumn, meaning sunny ice cream treats could give way to cosy cups of tea beside crackling fires while listening to rainfall pattering against windows. The autumn season also presents an excellent chance to discover various British towns and villages, as shifting weather conditions can make them feel even more enchanting – sometimes in quite literal ways.
Manchester local Leila Dean turned to social media to chronicle her visit to Burley, a charming village nestled in Hampshire’s New Forest. Through her video, she documented highlights from her trip, describing it as the ‘perfect’ English village.
“I ended up in a village called Burley and it has to be one of the best places I’ve ever visited in the UK,” she declared at the beginning of her footage.
“It’s situated in the New Forest, and it’s known to have horses everywhere,” she explained while showing horses roaming freely through the streets.
She continued by revealing glimpses of her selected lodgings, having chosen to reserve a room at a local manor house surrounded by expansive natural grounds for exploration.
“And in the town, it is full of horses, lovely people, and witchcraft,” she revealed.
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During the 1950s, a Scottish woman called Sybil Leek made Burley her new home. She quickly earned the title ‘the witch of Burley’ after declaring herself as a white witch. Following the decriminalisation of witchcraft in 1951, she rose to become Britain’s most famous witch.
She established her own mystical shop in the village, named A Coven of Witches, which continues trading today and stocks witchcraft-related merchandise.
Though Sybil eventually relocated to America due to not wanting to be the centre of attention anymore, Burley has preserved its witchcraft connections, with shops and attractions celebrating this eccentric past and attracting visitors fascinated by its supernatural legacy, according to the New Forest’s website. Surely it sounds like the ideal destination for a Halloween getaway?
Leila was subsequently spotted stroking a horse, explaining all the horses were gentle as they simply wandered around the village, searching for the finest grass for their next meal.
She continued by describing the activities she’d enjoyed, which included browsing the local shops, including the renowned fudge shop, before hiring bicycles to discover the surrounding countryside.
“And honestly, it was such a wholesome day,” she remarked.
She added in the video’s caption: “Burley you have my heart. The best place for couples, besties or children! Bike rides, horse rides and so much more.”
Leila then posted a second clip documenting their adventure from day two in the village, which featured a stroll alongside a herd of alpacas, followed by a visit to a farm where visitors can harvest their own flowers and berries.
“I literally cannot recommend this place enough,” she said at the end of the video.
WASHINGTON — The ghost of Jeffrey Epstein is back in Washington as Congress prepares to return for the fall.
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson called an early start to summer break in July, attempting to shut down bipartisan clamor for the full release of the Epstein files. But Democrats are eager to launch back into a scandal that has dogged President Trump and divided his MAGA base.
Rep. Ro Khanna, a California Democrat, plans to partner with Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky to quickly force a vote on the House floor ordering the Justice Department to release its entire trove of documents from the investigation of Epstein, a convicted sex offender who abused hundreds of women and girls.
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The success of the measure is far from guaranteed. It is unclear whether the Justice Department would even abide by it. But Democrats plan to make sure the issue does not go away, regardless of its outcome, multiple Democratic aides said.
Democratic lawmakers’ focus on Epstein will be “high” out of the gate once Congress returns after Labor Day, one senior House Democratic staffer told The Times.
Republicans “will not want to be put in a position of voting against disclosure,” said the staffer, who requested anonymity to share internal discussions. “The same thing that tripped up Johnson in July is still there.”
California Dems lead charge for release
Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Long Beach) has pushed for the release of the Epstein documents.
(Damian Dovarganes / Associated Press)
Epstein, a wealthy financier with a deep bench of powerful friends, died in a New York City prison in August 2019 facing federal charges in a sprawling child sex trafficking conspiracy.
The charges followed reporting by the Miami Herald of a scandalous sweetheart deal brokered by federal prosecutors in Florida that had allowed Epstein to serve a months-long sentence, avoiding federal charges that could have resulted in life imprisonment.
The chief prosecutor in that case, Alex Acosta, the former U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Florida, went on to serve as Labor secretary in Trump’s first term.
It is just one of several milestones coming up for the Oversight Committee, which voted to subpoena all Justice Department records in the case before dismissing for recess. Democrats, partnering with Republicans rebelling against the party line, forced the subpoena vote.
The first set of those documents were delivered last week. But Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Long Beach), the top Democrat on the committee, said that 97% of the 33,000 pages of documents handed over by the Justice Department so far were already public.
The Justice Department and the Oversight Committee said that the records would be released on a piecemeal basis as department officials work to redact sensitive information on Epstein’s victims.
Garcia and Khanna have been leading the charge for an expansive release of documents in the Epstein case — a call that has drawn fierce pushback from Trump, who had a close friendship with Epstein for roughly a decade.
“There is no excuse for incomplete disclosures,” Garcia said. “Survivors and the American public deserve the truth.”
‘Gentleman in all respects’
Democrats never made an issue of the Epstein files when they held Congress and the White House under President Biden, dismissing the story as another right-wing conspiracy theory. But Democratic lawmakers now see the issue as an opportunity to cause a split between Trump and his supporters, highlighting his resistance to releasing the files for a voter base that has called for their disclosure since Epstein’s 2019 death.
Rep. James Comer of Kentucky, chairman of the Oversight Committee, issued a new subpoena this week to Epstein’s estate for all material from 1990 through his death that references presidents and vice presidents, as well address books, contact lists, and videos recorded at Epstein’s properties.
That could result in the disclosure of a book compiled for Epstein marking his 50th birthday in the early 2000s, first reported over the summer by the Wall Street Journal, that allegedly includes a letter from Trump featuring a lewd doodle and a note that reads, “Happy Birthday — and may every day be another wonderful secret.” Trump has denied he wrote the note.
The Oversight Committee has also voted to subpoena Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s close associate who is serving a 20-year sentence in federal prison for her role in a scheme to sexually exploit and abuse multiple minor girls.
Maxwell and her attorneys are openly angling for a pardon from Trump, raising suspicions among Democrats over the reliability of her testimony. But any appearance by Maxwell on Capitol Hill would become a media sensation, drawing national attention back to the case.
The second most powerful figure in the Justice Department, Todd Blanche, the deputy attorney general, personally interviewed Maxwell in July over the course of two days. She absolved Trump of any criminality in the interview without even being asked to do so.
“The president was never inappropriate with anybody,” Maxwell said, according to a transcript released last week.
“In the times I was with him,” she added, “he was a gentleman in all respects.”
After World War II, Europe launched a moral and identity-based project grounded in the imperative of “learning from history.” This involved remembrance of the Holocaust, the rejection of racism, the expansion of human rights, and the establishment of institutions designed to prevent the recurrence of catastrophe. Over the following decades, this narrative became dominant, shaping […]
Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell. Here’s a bonus edition of the newsletter as we continue to look at the top 10 Dodgers at each position.
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Top 10 right fielders
Here are my picks for the top 10 right fielders in Dodgers history, followed by how all of you voted. Numbers listed are with the Dodgers only. Click on the player’s name to be taken to the baseball-reference.com page with all their stats.
1. Carl Furillo (1946-60, .299/.355/.458, 112 OPS+, two-time All-Star)
“The Reading Rifle” led the NL in batting average at .344 in 1953, the second of his two All-Star seasons with the Dodgers. He finished sixth in MVP voting in 1949 when he hit .322 with 27 doubles, 10 triples, 18 homers and 106 RBIs. He was a good fielder with a great arm, racking up 24 assists in 1951, more than earning his nickname.
Nobody knew how to play the right-field wall at Ebbets Field like Furillo. The wall was 19 feet high, with a 19-foot screen on top. The screen was vertical, the wall was slightly angled, so balls would ricochet off in strange directions.
Furillo described how he played the wall. “Will it hit above the cement and hit the screen? Then you run like hell toward the wall, because it’s gonna drop dead. Will it hit the cement? Then you gotta run like hell to the infield, because it’s gonna come shooting out. The angles were crazy.”
He was a steady player for the Dodgers for years and played in seven World Series with the team, including the 1955 and 1959 title teams. Years later, in the book “Bums” by Peter Golenbock, Furillo talked about what it meant to win that 1955 World Series: “Oh God, that was the thrill of all thrills. I never in my life seen a town go so wild. You did it for yourself, too, but you did it for the people.” The Dodgers released Furillo during the 1960 season and he moved back east. He helped install the elevators in the World Trade Center buildings. On Jan. 21, 1989, he died of heart failure at the age of 75.
You could make an argument for Betts to be No. 1. I went with the longer Dodger career. Moving him to shortstop remains a mistake for now. Maybe at some point it pays off, but not yet.
3. Babe Herman (1926-31, 1945, .339/.396/.557, 144 OPS+)
Babe Herman was a great hitter and a lousy fielder who will always be remembered for doubling into a double play. On Aug. 15, 1926, the Dodgers were playing the Boston Braves. With one out and the bases loaded, Herman launched a flyball to right that looked like it would be caught, but it hit the wall. The runner on third scored, but the runner on second, Dazzy Vance, rounded third and stopped, unsure if the ball had been caught. The runner on first, Chick Fewster, saw Vance round third and assumed he was going to score, so Fewster rounded second and continued to third, where he met the confused Vance. Meanwhile Herman, head down all the way, came sliding into third with what he thought was a triple. The base belonged to Vance, so Fewster and Herman were tagged out, inning over. What often gets overlooked, the run Herman did knock in turned out to be the winning run in the game. It also led to a story, possibly apocryphal, of a Brooklyn man hailing a cab. The driver has the Dodgers game on the radio and the passenger asks “What’s going on with the Dodgers?” the driver answers “they have three men on” and the passenger responds, “Oh yeah? Which base?”
Also, Herman played so well that season that the Dodgers released aging future Hall of Famer Zack Wheat, convinced Herman could replace him.
Herman’s best season came in 1930, when he hit .393 with 48 doubles, 11 triples, 35 homers and 130 RBIs. Tempering those numbers a bit is the fact the entire league hit .303 in 1930 and despite those lofty numbers, Herman amazingly didn’t lead the league in anything. Herman led the team in homers in RBIs in 1931 and hit for the cycle twice. He got into a salary dispute after the season and the Dodgers traded him to Cincinnati. He left the majors after the 1937 season but in 1945, with the Dodgers in a pennant race and players scarce because of the war, general manager Branch Rickey asked Herman, who had been playing in the Pacific Coast League, if he would like to return to the Dodgers. Herman, 42, said sure and hit .265 with a double, homer and nine RBIs in 34 at-bats. He retired for good and became a long-time scout for various teams. Babe Herman died in Glendale on Nov. 27, 1987 at age 84.
4. Reggie Smith (1976-81, .297/.387/.528, 152 OPS+, three-time All-Star)
Reggie Jackson got the headlines, but the best Reggie in right field from 1977-78 was Reggie Smith. Which seems appropriate, because Steve Garvey got the headlines on the Dodgers even though Smith was a better player those two years, finishing fourth in MVP voting both seasons and leading the league in OB% in 1977 with an amazing .427 mark. That season, he hit .307 with 32 homers and 87 RBIs and scored 104 runs. And you didn’t mess with Smith or one of his teammates while he was with the Dodgers. In 1981, the Dodgers were playing the Pittsburgh Pirates when their pitcher, Pascaul Perez, hit Bill Russell with a pitch. The Dodgers demanded that Perez, who had a reputation of throwing at batters, be warned. The umpires refused. A couple of batters later, Perez hit Dusty Baker. Smith leveled a series of threats and profanities at Perez. After the inning, Perez motioned to Smith that he would meet him under the stands. The two players raced up their respective dugout tunnels and met behind home plate, under the stands. On TV, all we saw was both dugouts emptied as players from both teams also raced up the tunnels. It looked as if everyone had vanished. Amazingly, no one was ejected, and Perez even pitched the next inning. The Dodgers won the game. Smith left the majors after the 1982 season and played two years in Japan. He worked for the Dodgers as a coach, was the hitting coach for the 2000 gold-medal winning U.S. baseball team and is probably best known for his youth baseball camp and the Reggie Smith Baseball Center in Encino.
Walker played for 18 seasons in the majors but had his greatest success with Brooklyn, leading the league in hitting in 1944 (.357) and in RBIs in 1945 (124). Nicknamed “The People’s Choice,” he was extremely popular among Brooklyn fans, but now is mostly remembered for trying to keep Jackie Robinson from joining the team. He was among a group of Dodgers in spring training of 1947 who petitioned the team not to put Robinson on the team and, when they did, Walker asked Rickey for a trade. Walker and Robinson did their best to avoid each other during the season, and after the season, Walker credited Robinson for much of the team’s success. Robinson also credited Walker for giving him a batting tip early in the season. Years later, in an interview with Roger Kahn, Walker said “I organized that petition in 1947, not because I had anything against Robinson personally. … I had a wholesale business in Birmingham and people told me I’d lose my business if I played ball with a Black man.” Walker apologized and added “A person learns, and you begin to change with the times.” After the 1947 season, the Dodgers traded Walker to Pittsburgh for Billy Cox, Gene Mauch and Preacher Roe. Walker was a batting coach for the Dodgers from 1968 to 1974 and died of colon cancer in 1982 at age 71.
6. Shawn Green (2000-04, .280/.366/.510, 130 OPS+, one-time All-Star)
Green played in only five seasons with the team, but one of those years included perhaps the greatest offensive game by a Dodger. On May 23, 2002 in Milwaukee, Green hit four home runs, a double and a single, drove in seven runs and scored six runs. Green became a hero to many in the Jewish community the season before, when he ended his consecutive games played streak at 415 games in order to observe Yom Kippur. “I felt like it was the right thing to do. … I didn’t do this to gain approval. I thought it was the right example to set for Jewish kids, a lot of whom don’t like to go to synagogue,” Green said. Green was also known for giving away his batting gloves to a kid in the stands after every home run. He talked about how Vin Scully was the impetus for that when Green took part on our “Ask…” series. You can read that here. The Dodgers traded Green to Arizona before the 2005 season for Dioner Navarro and three minor leaguers. He played three more seasons in the majors and retired at age 34.
7. Andre Ethier (2006-17, .285/.359/.463, 122 OPS+, two-time All-Star, one Gold Glove)
On Dec. 13, 2005, the Dodgers made one of their best trades ever when they sent Milton Bradley and Antonio Perez to Oakland for Ethier, who became their starting right fielder for the next 10 seasons and put himself on many all-time top 10 lists in L.A. Dodger history. You knew what you were going to get from Ethier every season: A .280-.290 average with about 20 homers and 80 RBIs. He was the first Dodger to have at least 30 doubles in seven consecutive seasons. It was 2009 when Ethier became a fan favorite. He had six walk-off hits that season, four of them home runs. He played in a then-franchise record 51 postseason games and drove in the Dodgers’ only run in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series. It was his final appearance as a Dodger, as he retired before the 2018 season after two injury-marred seasons.
8. Raúl Mondesi (1993-99, .288/.334/.504, 122 OPS+, one-time All-Star, two Gold Gloves, 1994 NL rookie of the year)
Mondesi is sort of the original Yasiel Puig. He was an exciting player to watch who played Gold Glove-level defense in right, but also made a lot of baserunning mistakes and wasn’t always popular with his teammates. He was named NL rookie of the year in 1994 after hitting .306 with 16 home runs and 56 RBIs and in 1997 became the first Dodger to join the 30-30 club when he hit 30 homers and stole 32 bases. He was traded to Toronto after the 1999 season along with Pedro Borbon for Shawn Green and bounced around the majors after that, with his career ending in 2005. He was elected mayor of his hometown, San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, in 2010 and in 2017 was sentenced to eight years in prison for corruption and mishandling of public funds while mayor. His son played seven seasons with the Kansas City Royals.
Crawford is one of those guys who was good at a lot of things but not great at anything, and those types of players tend to be overlooked. But you need players like that every year in order to win. Crawford first played for L.A. as a 17-year-old in 1964 and had his best season in 1973, when he hit .295/.396/.453 with 14 homers and 66 RBIs. He was solid defensively, playing more shallow than most right fielders to cut down on bloop singles and relying on his speed to catch any balls hit over him. “He was big and powerful, and he could hit a ball as far as anybody. Boy, was he something,” Tommy Lasorda once said of Crawford, who the Dodgers signed out of Fremont High. Crawford was signed out of high school for $100,000, and the rules at the time said if you signed for at least that much, you had to stay on the major league roster for a season, which hampered his development. In 1965, the 19-year-old Crawford got a World Series ring for being on the Dodgers roster, but he batted only 27 times in the regular season. In his first four seasons as a Dodger, he played in 72 games. He was a productive player for many years and retired after the 1977 season. Crawford died of kidney disease at age 57 in 2004. You can read more about him here.
How long ago did Keeler play? He retired 115 years ago. He died 102 years ago. He was one of the biggest stars of 19th-century baseball, known for his hitting philosophy of “I hit ‘em where they ain’t,” referring to fielders. He holds the Dodger record for career batting average, a record that seems unlikely to be broken. He was starring with Baltimore when, in essence, the two teams fell under the same ownership group and decided to put all the best players, including Keeler, on Brooklyn. Keeler was born in Brooklyn, so he was elated, as it also allowed him to live with his mother, who was very ill. Brooklyn was the best team in the National League in 1899 and 1900, but there was no World Series, so that’s about as far as it went. He signed with the New York Highlanders (who eventually became the Yankees) in 1903 for $11,000, becoming the first player to be paid at least $10,000.
He retired after the 1910 season. He was well off financially, but a series of bad investments led to him becoming virtually penniless. He was so popular, players in both leagues donated money, and he was presented with a check for $5,000 in 1921. He died of endocarditis (inflammation of the lining of the heart) in 1923.
He was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1939.
The readers’ top 10
1,317 ballots were sent in. First place received 12 points, second place nine, all the way down to one point for 10th place. For those of you who were wondering, I make my choices before I tally your results. Here are your choices:
The next five: Willie Keeler, Frank Robinson, Yasiel Puig, Hack Wilson, Mike Marshall.
Top 10 starting pitchers
Who are your top 10 Dodgers right fielders of all time (including Brooklyn)? Email your list to [email protected] and let me know. Remember, we are considering only what they did with the Dodgers.
Many of you have asked for a list of players to consider for each position. Here are the strongest starting pitcher candidates, in alphabetical order.
Tim Belcher, Chad Billingsley, Ralph Branca, Kevin Brown, Bob Caruthers, Watty Clark, Al Downing, Don Drysdale, Carl Erskine, Zack Greinke, Burleigh Grimes, Orel Hershiser, Burt Hooton, Tommy John, Brickyard Kennedy, Clayton Kershaw, Sandy Koufax, Tim Leary, Ramón Martínez, Rube Marquard, Andy Messersmith, Van Lingle Mungo, Don Newcombe, Hideo Nomo, Claude Osteen, Chan Ho Park, Jeff Pfeffer, Johnny Podres, Doug Rau, Jerry Reuss, Preacher Roe, Nap Rucker, Bill Singer, Sherry Smith, Ed Stein, Don Sutton, Adonis Terry, Fernando Valenzuela, Dazzy Vance, Bob Welch, Whit Wyatt.
Have a comment or something you’d like to see in a future Dodgers newsletter? Email me at [email protected]. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.
LAFC’s signing of South Korean star Son Heung-min earlier this month is a major coup not just for the team. It’s also the latest in a spate of acquisitions that has brought an unprecedented level of talent and attention to MLS as the league nears the end of its 30th anniversary season.
Since Lionel Messi joined Inter Miami shortly after winning the 2022 World Cup, MLS has welcomed more than two dozen global standouts, from World Cup champions Hugo Lloris, Olivier Giroud, Rodrigo De Paul and Thomas Mueller to Germany’s Marco Reus and Uruguay’s Luis Suárez.
Some were a bit past their prime but others, including Messi, have proven to be dominant MLS players. The addition of Son, arguably the best Asian player of all time, opens a new chapter for the league and U.S. soccer as the country prepares to welcome the World Cup back next summer.
With that as a backdrop, here’s one man’s list of the 10 most important signings in MLS history:
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SACRAMENTO — There are “Wizard of Oz” echoes in the retaliatory redistricting fight being waged by California Democrats against President Trump and Texas Republicans.
That’s mainly because of the script being followed by Republican opponents. But Democrats seem to be parroting some Oz lines, too.
That was evident last week during several tense debates by California lawmakers on legislation setting a special state election for Nov. 4 to counteract Texas’ attempts to flip five congressional seats from Democrats to Republicans.
California’s Legislature, after much emotional rhetoric, easily passed the Democrats’ proposed constitutional amendment and supporting legislation on party-line, supermajority votes. The bills were immediately signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, their instigator and chief promoter. They’ll be Proposition 50 on the November ballot.
All the while, script lines from “The Wizard of Oz” movie classic kept ringing in my ears.
“Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain,” the Wizard implores Dorothy and her pals after her little dog, Toto, pulls back the curtain to reveal him as a fraud.
In Sacramento, it’s as if Republicans — and progressive do-gooders — are being admonished to pay no attention to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who has committed the same sins of partisan redistricting that they’re attacking Newsom for. The Texan isn’t even mentioned by California assailants of Newsom’s gerrymandering. It smacks of hypocrisy.
Abbott doesn’t have to, of course. In Texas, it’s perfectly legal for the legislature to rig congressional districts for partisan advantage. In California, voters banned gerrymandering of congressional districts in 2010 and turned over their drawing to the bipartisan citizens commission. Newsom needs voter permission to suspend that law.
Nationally, Democrats need to gain only a handful of seats to capture control of the House and end the GOP’s one-party rule of Washington. Trump fears that likelihood. So he pressured Abbott into engineering a legislative gerrymandering of Texas’ House districts in mid-decade, rather than wait for the normal redrawing after the 2030 census. And he’s browbeating other red state governors to likewise rig their congressional lines.
“California will not be a bystander to Trump’s power grab,” Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas (D-Salinas) said as Newsom signed the legislation. “We will not stand by while the House is hijacked by authoritarianism.”
But back to the Emerald City.
The Wizard introduces himself to Dorothy by bellowing behind the curtain: “I am Oz, the great and powerful.” Later, he breaks his word to the girl, she sees through his bullying and stands up to him, scolding: “If you were really great and powerful, you’d keep your promises.”
Trump is a great big bully whose word can’t be taken at face value because he consistently changes his mind to fit the moment. He’s clearly anti-California, holding back federal funds, assessing fines and reducing environmental protections. Newsom and Democratic leaders will repeatedly remind voters of that as the election approaches.
Unlike Dorothy, it’s a rare Republican elected official who has the courage to stand up to this power-obsessed bully. But one surprisingly surfaced during the Assembly redistricting debate.
Referring to Trump’s urging Abbott and other GOP governors to gerrymander districts, Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher of Yuba City asserted: “He is wrong to do so.” And he added for emphasis: “Let me repeat. He is wrong…. Where does it end?”
Later, Gallagher reiterated, “My president is wrong on this point. What I don’t hear from the other side is, ‘My governor is wrong.’ ”
Gallagher and several Republicans insist — as Newsom and Democrats do — that gerrymandering should be outlawed in every state and district lines drawn by citizens’ commissions rather than self-interested legislators. But that won’t happen in the foreseeable future.
Gallagher also contended that Democrats are hyping Trump’s threat to democracy. He said they’re arguing that “in order to save democracy, we must undermine it” by committing sleazy gerrymandering.
He has a point about the Democrats’ excessive warning of democracy’s peril under Trump.
“Californians won’t stand by while Donald Trump destroys democracy,” Sen. Sabrina Cervantes (D-Riverside) declared during an oft-uncivil hearing of the Assembly Elections Committee. “If we let Trump get away with this rigging of elections, then we may not have free and fair elections in the future.”
That seems a stretch.
This and other hyperbole by several legislators of both parties reminded me of frightened Dorothy, Tin Man and Scarecrow chanting in the dark forest: “Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!”
I suspect the best pitch for Proposition 50 in this heavily Democratic state is a straight-forward anti-Trump message focused on his inhuman policies and the urgent need to restore checks and balances in Washington.
“We are going to punch this bully in the mouth,” Newsom vowed during a press conference hosted by the Democratic National Committee.
OK, but the governor should cool the Trump-like rhetoric. It probably wouldn’t impress Dorothy or — more important — her Uncle Henry and Aunt Em.
Investors have ridden an incredible recovery from the April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff surprises. Since the April 8 low, the Nasdaq Composite(^IXIC 1.88%) has appreciated an incredible 40%. And of course, that recovery has taken place amid a decade-long bull market in technology growth stocks.
It’s easy to understand why. Society is becoming more digital and automated. The last 10 years have seen the emergence of cloud computing, streaming video, digital advertising, the pandemic-era boom in electronic devices and work-from-home, all topped off by the introduction of generative artificial intelligence (AI) marked by the unveiling of ChatGPT in late 2022.
However, after a long tech bull market, technology growth stocks have reached a worrying valuation level relative to other stocks, and today’s relative overvaluation mirrors an infamous period in stock market history.
Echoes of the dot-com era?
In several ways, technology stock performance and valuations are currently mirroring the extremes of the dot-com boom of the late 1990s. Unfortunately, we all know how that period ended, with a terrible “bust” that sent the Nasdaq tumbling three years in a row, eventually culminating in a 78% drawdown from the March 10, 2000, peak.
Technology innovation can be very exciting; however, that excitement often finds itself in the form of high valuations. According to data published on Charlie Bilello’s State of the Markets blog, the technology sector’s recent outperformance has now exceeded that of the height of the dot-com bubble:
The relative outperformance isn’t the only mirror to the dot-com era. Back then, tech stocks also became very large, leading to an outperformance of large stocks relative to small stocks. Similarly, tech stocks are often growth stocks with high multiples, reflecting enthusiasm over their future prospects. This is in contrast to value stocks, which trade at low multiples, usually due to their more modest growth prospects.
As you can see below, the outperformance of large stocks to small stocks, as well as growth stocks to value stocks, is at highs last seen during the dot-com boom.
Given that higher-valued tech stocks now make up a larger portion of the index, the Schiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which adjusts for cyclicality in earnings over 10 years, while not quite at the levels of 1999, has crept up to the highest level since 1999, roughly matching the level from 2021:
As we all know, 2022 was also a terrible year for tech stocks. While it didn’t see a multiyear crash akin to the dot-com bust, 2022 saw the Nasdaq decline 33.1% on the year. Of course, at the end of 2022, ChatGPT came out, somewhat saving the tech sector as the AI revolution kicked off.
Counterpoints to the bubble thesis
Thus, when compared to history, tech stocks are at worrying levels. Given the similarities to the 1999 dot-com bubble and the 2021 pandemic bubble, some may think it’s time to panic and sell; however, there are also a few counter-narratives to consider.
The first is that, unlike in 1999, today’s technology giants are mostly truly diversified, cash-rich behemoths that account for a greater and greater percentage of today’s gross domestic product (GDP). While the late 1990s certainly had its leaders — including Microsoft(MSFT 0.56%), the only market leader that is in the same position today as then — they weren’t really anything like today’s tech giants, with robust cloud businesses, global scale, diversified income streams, and tremendous amounts of cash.
While market concentration in the top three weightings tends to occur before market downturns, index weighting concentration appears to be somewhat of a long-term trend now, increasing beyond prior highs in 1999 and 2008 since 2019.
Image source: Charlie Bilello State of the Markets blog.
Thus, it seems a higher weighting of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks could be a feature of today’s economy, rather than an aberration.
While it’s true that some of today’s large companies are overvalued, given their underlying strength and resilience, it’s perhaps not abnormal for them to garner higher-than-normal valuation multiples.
What investors should do now
It’s important to know that while taking note of market levels is important, it is extremely difficult to time market downturns. Famed investor Peter Lynch once said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”
So, one shouldn’t abandon one’s long-term investing plan just because overall market levels may be frothy. That being said, if you need a certain amount of cash in the next one to two years, it may be a good idea to keep that money in cash or Treasury bills until then, rather than the stock market.
Furthermore, if you have a regular, methodical investing plan, stick to it. But if you are consistently adding to your portfolio every month or quarter, you may want to look at small caps, non-tech sectors, and value stocks today, rather than adding to large technology companies.
Lee’s visit comes two days before his crucial first summit in Washington, DC with US President Donald Trump.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has hosted South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Tokyo for a visit aimed at reaffirming security cooperation and showcasing friendly ties between the two East Asian neighbours facing common challenges from their mutual ally, the United States.
On his first official visit to Japan since taking office in June, Lee met Ishiba on Saturday at the premier’s residence to discuss bilateral ties, including closer security cooperation with the US under a trilateral pact signed by their predecessors.
“As the strategic environment surrounding both our countries grows increasingly severe, the importance of our relations, as well as trilateral cooperation with the United States, continues to grow,” Ishiba said in a joint announcement with Lee after their meeting.
The leaders agreed to resume shuttle diplomacy, expand exchanges such as working holiday programmes, and step up cooperation in defence, economic security, artificial intelligence and other areas. They also pledged closer coordination against North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats.
The snap election victory of the liberal Lee – following the impeachment of conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol for declaring martial law – raised concerns in Tokyo that relations with Seoul could sour.
Lee has criticised past efforts to improve ties strained by lingering resentment over Japan’s colonial rule. The South Korean government last week expressed “deep disappointment and regret” after Japanese officials visited a shrine in Tokyo to Japan’s war dead that many Koreans see as a symbol of Japan’s wartime aggression.
In Tokyo, however, Lee reaffirmed support for closer relations with Japan as he did when he met Ishiba for the first time in June on the sidelines of a Group of Seven (G7) summit in Canada.
Lee’s decision to visit Tokyo before Washington has been well received by Japanese officials, who see it as a sign Lee is placing great importance on relations between the two neighbours.
For Ishiba, who faces pressure from right-wing rivals within his governing party to resign over its July election loss, Lee’s visit and a successful summit could shore up his support.
Despite their differences, the two US allies rely heavily on Washington to counter China’s growing regional influence. Together, they host about 80,000 US soldiers, dozens of US warships and hundreds of military aircraft.
Japan and South Korea also share common ground on trade, with both agreeing to 15 percent tariffs on US imports of their goods after Trump had threatened steeper duties.
We “agreed that unwavering cooperation between South Korea, the US and Japan is paramount in the rapidly changing international situation, and decided to create a virtuous cycle in which the development of South Korea-Japan relations leads to stronger cooperation”, Lee said alongside Ishiba.
Lee’s visit comes two days before his crucial first summit in Washington with US President Donald Trump. The two men are expected to discuss security concerns, including China, North Korea, and Seoul’s financial contribution for US forces stationed in South Korea – something the US leader has repeatedly pressed it to increase.
It’s not easy being from California, especially if you’re hoping to leave the Golden State’s fires and rising home costs behind and move to a more affordable red state.
In Texas, some politicians have adopted “Don’t California my Texas” as both a rallying cry and a fundraising appeal.
In Montana, rising home prices prompted lawmakers to pass a package of bills this year that increased property taxes on people — including many Californians — who own second homes in the state.
And now, in Oklahoma, education officials have entered the fray by requiring teachers from California and New York to take an exam aimed at guarding against “radical leftist ideology.”
The test is being developed by leadership from the Oklahoma State Department of Education and PragerU, a nonprofit advocacy group that produces videos promoting conservative views of history, finance and other topics. PragerU videos have already been approved for use in schools in several states, including Oklahoma.
“Our teacher qualification test is very simple,” PragerU CEO Marissa Streit said in a statement to The Times. “Frankly, every American should be able to pass it. Certainly, every teacher should be able to pass it.”
She added that the full test will be available in the coming weeks. “We encourage you to take a look at the test yourself and make your own decision on whether it’s reasonable or not,” she said.
Superintendent Ryan Walters poses for a portrait in his office.
(Nick Oxford)
Ryan Walters, Oklahoma’s state superintendent of public instruction, told The Times that he launched the test out of concern over state standards in California and New York that require teachers to instruct students about gender identity.
The test comes at a time when Californians are increasingly relocating to other states in search of a slower pace of life and more affordable housing. Some cities seeking to reverse years-long population declines have created incentive programs to attract remote workers.
Tulsa Remote, which pays workers $10,000 to move to the second-largest city in the Sooner State, has attracted more than 3,600 remote workers since its inception in 2019. More than 7,800 Californians have applied to the program and 539 have made the move, cementing California as the second-most common origin state behind Texas.
Amid a nationwide teacher shortage, the Oklahoma schools system has launched a $50,000 signing bonus program — the largest in the country — to help recruit new educators for some of the most difficult to fill jobs, including early elementary and special education instruction.
The so-called “Californian exodus” accelerated during the pandemic, with places like Texas, Florida and Tennessee seeing major influxes from the West.
But by 2024, the exodus had ended, according to state data. The state’s population rose slightly in 2024 after three years of decline.
A Public Policy Institute of California survey in March found that many Californians who leave are either favoring nearby states such as Arizona, Idaho, Nevada and Oregon; larger states such as Texas; or locations without income taxes — not necessarily Oklahoma.
And the emigration of Californians to other states has done little to shift political demographics in their new homes, according to Eric McGhee, a policy director and senior fellow with the Public Policy Institute of California.
“The partisan balance of people moving to different states tends to be an exaggerated version of the partisan balance of the state they’re moving to,” he said. “So states that are more Republican tend to have migrants from California who are even more Republican than people in the state they’re moving to.”
The number of teachers that would be mandated to take the test in Oklahoma is unclear, but some data indicates that it might be small.
Information from the Commission for Educational Quality and Accountability — which oversees the education department and reviews out-of-state certification assessments for comparability with Oklahoma’s testing standards — shows that since 2020, the agency has reviewed only 19 out-of-state applications from California and New York. In 2025, only one applicant came from California, and none from New York.
Critics say the exam will discourage educators from accepting jobs in Oklahoma, which has been struggling with a teacher shortage and continues to lag behind the national average in reading and math, according to national data.
“This MAGA loyalty test will be yet another turnoff for teachers in a state already struggling with a huge shortage,” American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten said.
“[Walters’] priority should be educating students, but instead, it’s getting Donald Trump and other MAGA politicians to notice him,” she said. “Teachers are patriots, and whether they are conservative or liberal, they want what students need: safe and welcoming public schools that are engaging and relevant and that prepare kids for college, career and life.”
Dennis Prager, founder of PragerU, in 2024 in Los Angeles. A test for new teachers in Oklahoma is being developed by leadership from the State Department of Education and PragerU.
(Araya Doheny / Getty Images for DailyWire+)
Experts say the creation of a test where teachers are forced to adhere to a certain viewpoint to get a job is unprecedented in the American education system. It also highlights the growing foothold PragerU has on the education system in certain states, said Jonathan Zimmerman, a professor of history of education at the University of Pennsylvania.
“What they’re doing is they’re making Prager into a central player in the operation by vetting teachers based on their affinity for what Prager believes,” Zimmerman said. “I think the other thing that’s unprecedented, frankly, is the involvement of the White House in all of this.”
In January, Trump signed an executive order titled “Ending Radical Indoctrination in K-12 Schooling,” which sought to cease funding any schools that teach gender ideology or curriculum that portrays the United States as “fundamentally racist, sexist, or otherwise discriminatory.” The order emphasizes the need for a “patriotic education.”
“I don’t think we’ve ever seen the White House engaging directly in these sorts of questions,” Zimmerman said.
“Historically, in the United States, school has been a state and especially a local concern and it still is,” he added. “The bulk of money for schools comes from states and localities, but I think something’s really different about our moment in the way these issues have become nationalized.”
With respect to California and New York educators, Walters has taken issue with the “gender fluidity argument,” which details that a person’s gender identity is not fixed and can shift or change over time, which he says is a “lie that they continue to push.”
The California Healthy Youth Act, which took effect in 2016, requires that districts provide comprehensive sexual health and HIV prevention education for students in grades 7 through 12 in public schools. The lessons, which parents can opt to take their children out of, include discussions of gender and sexual orientation.
Oklahoma public schools are not required to teach sex education, including gender. In 2021, the state passed a bill, HB 1775, that restricts the teaching of certain concepts related to race and gender in public schools and universities. The ACLU filed a lawsuit challenging what they called “unconstitutional censorship” in schools. That case is ongoing.
New York and California were “the first states that we’ve seen that are actually requiring their teachers to do things that are antithetical to our standards,” Walters said, adding that the test’s goal is to ensure they’ll teach to Oklahoma state standards. Walters is also looking at requiring the test for teachers from other states including Massachusetts, Maine and Minnesota.
Still, the notion that waves of Californians moving to other states are changing the political leanings on a large scale of their destinations isn’t borne out in the research.
The 50 question multiple choice exam, which is expected to be rolled out in the next few weeks, will include questions about gender, civics and American history. A preview of the exam released by the department of education included the question: Why is freedom of religion important to America’s identity?
Teachers must answer all 50 questions correctly to pass the test, Walters said, noting that the state is proud to be focusing on creating good citizens and being “unapologetic about a patriotic education.”
Zimmerman sees the creation of a good citizen a bit differently.
“To me, a good citizen, is somebody who has the capacity and skill to judge matters for themselves. Now how are you going to teach a future citizen to do that if you’re simply giving them one answer? I don’t think you can,” he said.
US Vice President JD Vance hit the road on August 21 to promote President Donald Trump’s legislative accomplishment, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act tax and spending bill.
The law permanently extended tax cuts from a 2017 law Trump signed, which would have expired at the end of 2025 had Congress not reauthorised them. The law also included some new tax cuts, including for tips, overtime and Americans 65 and older.
Speaking in Peachtree City near Atlanta, Vance said, “We had the biggest tax cut for families that this country has ever seen.”
The tax cuts were significant, but they weren’t the biggest in US history, which was a phrase Trump has often used to inaccurately describe his 2017 tax cut law. The 2025 tax cuts rank either third-biggest since 1980 or tied for seventh, depending on the yardstick.
At the same time, many Americans could see relatively modest changes to the taxes they owe starting in 2026, because the 2025 law mostly extended existing tax cuts.
The White House did not provide a response before publication.
Comparing historical tax cut laws
We examined the tax revenue decreases from major laws passed since 1980. (On balance, most tax laws prior to 1980 either raised taxes or cut them modestly.)
Tax bill dollar amounts tend to rise over time because of inflation, so we looked at tax cuts as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), which evens out the differences over time. And because some early laws have tax cut data available only for the first five or six years of the law’s life, we compared laws by looking at the cumulative tax savings during a law’s first five years in effect.
We found that the law with the biggest tax savings was 1981 legislation passed by the Democratic Congress and signed by President Ronald Reagan, who won office promising large tax cuts. That law cut taxes by 3.5 percent of the nation’s cumulative five-year GDP.
A 2012 bill passed by the Republican Congress and signed by President Barack Obama ranked second. That bill, which cut taxes by 1.7 percent of GDP, extended the tax cuts passed in 2003 under President George W Bush.
Based on current projections, Trump’s 2025 law ranks third, at 1.4 percent of GDP when factoring in Trump’s 2017 cuts.
Trump’s 2017 law ranks fourth at 1 percent, tied with a 2010 law Obama signed that extended Bush’s 2001 tax cuts. Bush’s 2001 and 2003 tax cuts ranked sixth and seventh, with 0.7 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.
If considering only new tax cuts and not the re-upped 2017 tax cuts, then Trump’s 2025 law would tie for seventh at 0.5 percent of GDP.
Joseph Rosenberg, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center, said that it’s legitimate to measure the scale of the cuts in the 2025 tax law either way.
What will Americans see in their taxes starting in 2026?
There could be a disconnect between the historical scale of Trump’s 2025 bill and the impact that Americans will notice when filing 2026 taxes.
Because Americans are already paying the lower rates that began in 2017 and that the 2025 law extended, they won’t necessarily notice a sizeable reduction in taxes owed.
“For most families, they are going to see a child tax credit that increases by a maximum of $200 per child, from $2,000 to $2,200,” said Margot Crandall-Hollick, principal research associate at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. “Some are going to pay a little less because of the tips and overtime provisions and a slightly higher standard deduction.”
The law preserves a more generous standard deduction that had been set to expire and increases it slightly to $15,750 for single filers and $31,500 for joint filers in 2025, to be indexed to inflation annually.
At the same time, Crandall-Hollick said, some families, especially those with lower incomes, will pay higher taxes because of the expiration of health insurance premium tax credits, which were not extended by the Big Beautiful Bill.
We holidayed in style at the chic and charming El Fuerte hotel on Marbella’s beachfront for a taste of old world Spanish charm, and discovered another side to the popular Málaga area
The programme might have slipped past some viewers’ attention, but it delivers an exceptional viewing experience.
One glowing IMDb review stated: “An immaculate, terrifying alternate history that is accurate down to the buttons. I love period pieces, and this scary projection of a post WW2 hegemony ruled by the Japanese and German empires certainly fits the bill.”
Another viewer gushed: “I’m a TV show lover, but never! ever! has a series made me want to write a review.”
They continued: “The story line is incredible. The acting is great. The emotions that it brought out of me was real and raw. It made me appreciate and think differently about the word/idea/concept that we all throw around ‘FREEDOM [sic].'”
Rufus Sewell starred in the groundbreaking series(Image: PRIME VIDEO)
A third reviewer entitled their assessment: “An amazing adaptation of the novel!”.
They elaborated: “The pilot episode was exceptional. It held my attention and made me believe in such an alternate history.
“I have read the book, and although it is different, it is an incredible adaptation. If the book was turned into a show without any edits, it would be far too complicated and very hard to enjoy (although the book is incredible).
“The acting, story, and visuals are spot on and only intensified what I had imagined when I read the book.”
The alternate history drama has proved captivating(Image: PRIME VIDEO)
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Another viewer gave a glowing 10/10 review, exclaiming: “A must watch, absolutely amazing!” and added: “If you like Hunger Games, GoT, Legends, Vikings or any of these shows, you will like this. I highly recommend watching this, to everyone. Watch it! [sic].”
The Man in the High Castle first aired in 2015 and was Amazon Prime Video’s inaugural original series, spanning four seasons.
The series is an adaptation of renowned science fiction author Philip K. Dick’s 1962 novel bearing the same title.
The plot envisages an alternate history where Adolf Hitler and the Nazis emerged victorious from WW2, with the action set 15 years post-conflict.
A woman holds her hands up with soldiers pointing a gun at her(Image: PRIME VIDEO)
The storyline follows various characters living under the rule of Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany in a divided USA.
The TV adaptation stays true to this premise and centres around Juliana Crain (portrayed by Alexa Davalos), who starts to rebel against the regime after viewing a subversive newsreel titled The Grasshopper Lies Heavy, which portrays a world where the USA and the Allies triumphed in the war.
The Man in the High Castle was Prime Video’s first major original series. The streaming platform kick-started its original programming by producing a series of pilots and inviting its users to vote on which one they wanted to see developed into a full series, with the science fiction alternate history emerging as the winner.
The Man in the High Castle boasts a star-studded cast including Davalos, Rufus Sewell from ITV’s Victoria and The Holidays, Luke Kleintank known for FBI and Bones, DJ Qualls of Z Nation fame, Joel de la Fuente from Hemlock Grove, and Cary-Hiroyuki Tagawa, renowned for Pearl Harbor and Netflix’s Lost in Space.
The Man in the High Castle is streaming on Prime Video now
Graffiti mars the crumbling walls of the main thermal baths in one of Europe’s oldest spa towns, Baile Herculane.
Yet after decades of neglect, a dedicated team of young architects is working to revive the picturesque Romanian resort that once drew emperors to its healing waters.
“Someone once said that if you drink water from the spring from Herculane, you never leave,” said 31-year-old architect Oana Chirila.
“I was struck by the beauty of the place,” she explained about the town in Romania’s southwest, nestled among mountains and bisected by a river. “And at the same time [I was] shocked by its condition,” she added, referring to the dilapidated state of the historic thermal baths.
Chirila first visited Baile Herculane eight years ago entirely by chance, she said.
Her group’s restoration project represents one of several recent civil society initiatives launched to safeguard Romania’s historic monuments.
Approximately 800 such monuments have deteriorated to an advanced state of decay or risk complete collapse. Some already pose significant public safety hazards.
Constructed in 1886, the Neptune Imperial Baths once welcomed distinguished guests seeking its warm sulphur treatments.
Among these illustrious visitors were Austria’s Emperor Franz Joseph and his wife Elisabeth, commonly known as Sisi. Franz Joseph himself described the town as Europe’s “most beautiful spa resort”.
Today, the baths stand closed, their interior walls defaced with graffiti, floors littered with debris, and rain seeping through the ceiling.
Despite the deterioration, tourists regularly pause to admire and photograph the long, rusted facade, with some attempting to glimpse the interior through broken windows.
Currently, Chirila and her volunteer team can only perform conservation work on the baths’ exterior structure. Full restoration remains impossible until legal conflicts between authorities and private owners are resolved, she explained, adding, “There’s always this fear that it might collapse.”
“Most of the historical monuments are in their current state – meaning constant decay – because they are legally blocked,” preventing utilisation of public or European funds for restoration.
For now, along one side of the riverbank, visitors can enjoy three sulphur water basins – what Chirila calls “little bathtubs”.
Her team refurbished these basins and constructed changing booths and wooden pavilions, one of several projects they have undertaken throughout the town.
In recent years, Baile Herculane, home to 3,800 residents, has experienced a steady increase in tourism, according to local officials. Some 160,000 tourists visited in 2024 – up from 90,000 in 2020 – many seeking spa treatments, but also hiking and climbing opportunities.
“The resort has changed,” Aura Zidarita, 50, a doctor, told the AFP news agency. She remained optimistic that it could reclaim its status as a “pearl of Europe”.
