GCC

Russia’s foreign policy framework places emphasis on adopting a plurality of approaches, including serious dialogues through conventional diplomacy, to all kinds of disputes and has taken concrete steps to coordinate the resolution of those in the Arab world. After lengthy preparations toward hosting the “Russia-Arab world” summit, primarily aimed at discussing regional security and energy relations and showcasing Moscow’s enduring influence in the Middle East, the Kremlin abruptly put off the scheduled gathering, citing contradictory positions and extremely low interest among Arab leaders, including those in North Africa.

The Russia-Arab Summit was supposed to open and be decisive for advancing the agreements on the Gaza Strip, agreements that have been energetically promoted by Egypt and Qatar, considered friends of Russia. It was also meant to address aspects of the Palestinian issue, to stop the bloodshed as soon as possible, and to offer possible pathways for the grave humanitarian issues faced by the people.

Notably, the overwhelming majority in the Arab world showed little interest in Russia being the organizer. Later, considering the apathy towards participation, “President Vladimir Putin reached an understanding with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Al Sudani and the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States to postpone the summit,” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Arab media reporters on October 13, during his media briefing.

“The final documents are practically ready, so we will still have the opportunity to get together, back for the summit,” Lavrov reassured. The relations with Arab countries are steadily progressing. The League of Arab States has demonstrated its value and is consolidating its role as a key pillar of the emerging multipolar world, authoritatively and actively participating in global affairs—in economics, finance, and increasingly contributing to the resolution of regional and, more broadly, political issues.

There is a noticeable sustained growth in trade turnover with the League’s member states, which has now exceeded $34 billion. Whilst this figure is modest compared to the trade volumes the United States and the People’s Republic of China maintain with the Arab world, it is several times greater than the trade turnover recorded two decades ago. That lapses, however—the growth dynamics are still positive. Arab partners are also showing keen interest in agricultural cooperation, including supplies of Russian food products and fertilizer.

Furthermore, in the sphere of cultural cooperation, Russia has traditionally maintained strong educational ties with many Arab states, a practice dating back to the Soviet era. Tourism is growing bilaterally. The fundamental trend remains the development of constructive relations grounded in mutual respect, the accommodation of each other’s interests, and the consolidation of a stable balance between them.

According to various reports monitored by Modern Diplomacy, the Kremlin was forced to shelve the gathering after only a handful of leaders, including Syria’s president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the head of the Arab League, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, confirmed their attendance. For nearly a decade, the Middle East served as the stage for Putin’s long-sought return to global prominence. But analysts say the Arab majority expressed little interest in participating in deliberations, geopolitics, and conflict settlement with Moscow.

Nevertheless, an aide to the president of Russia, Yury Ushakov, in mid-October explicitly explained that “naturally, the Russian side outlined its principled position in favor of a comprehensive Middle East settlement on a generally recognized international legal basis that would ensure lasting peace for all the peoples in that region.”

In particular, Ushakov noted that Vladimir Putin provided a detailed assessment of the current situation, stressing Russia’s interest in achieving a peaceful resolution through political and diplomatic methods in the region and other similar conflicts around the world. In this context, Putin congratulated Donald Trump on his successful efforts to normalize the situation in the Gaza Strip. The US president’s peace work has been duly appreciated in the Middle East, in the United States itself, and in most countries around the world.

In several frank exchanges of views, experts noted the essential political developments in the Middle East and stressed the growing significance of the necessity for establishing peace. “But Russia’s diplomatic role in the Middle East has declined as a result of the Ukraine war,” said Hanna Notte, a Berlin-based expert on Russian foreign policy. “When it comes to all the big developments, the major players in the region don’t look towards Moscow anymore.”

But, the fact remains for geopolitical reasons, the primary objectives and challenges, that the situation has been very difficult and the future trends are uncertain in the region—the Middle East and North Africa. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, meeting with his Moroccan counterpart Nasser Bourita, also acknowledged Moscow’s readiness to work together with other interested countries to help resolve the issues facing the Middle East and North Africa.

“This certainly envisages continued cooperation as part of Russia’s interaction with the Arab League,” according to Lavrov. With Israel and Palestine, Russia hoped the agreements on Gaza reached through the mediation of Egypt, Qatar, the United States, and Turkey will be strictly and fully adhered to in every context and in the logically established international legal framework. 

On September 29, the White House released US President Donald Trump’s comprehensive plan to resolve the situation in the Gaza Strip. The 20-point document includes, among other measures, the establishment of temporary external administration in the Palestinian enclave and the deployment of international stabilization forces there. On October 9, Trump announced that Israeli and Hamas representatives had agreed on the first step of the peace plan after negotiations. According to Trump, the agreement included the release of all hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli troops to an agreed-upon line in Gaza.

Despite years of cultivating ties with the Arab countries, Putin called off, on 10th October, the Russia-Arab world summit, a clear sign of Russia’s dwindling influence in the Middle East. Notwithstanding that, Russia has been jostling to sustain its traditional relations across Central Asia and the Caucasus, and also with the former Soviet republics—including Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

Substantive steps have been taken on Gaza, for instance, during the summit held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on October 13, and hopefully, the agreements on Gaza, reached with the mediation of Egypt, Qatar, the United States, and Türkiye, will be strictly and fully implemented. Key priorities include ensuring the unhindered delivery of humanitarian aid to all those in need, creating the necessary conditions for the return of displaced persons, and addressing the comprehensive destruction of the enclave’s civilian infrastructure. 

The UN Security Council and General Assembly resolutions can additionally bring a long-awaited and lasting peace to all the peoples of the Middle East—an outcome in which we are deeply invested, achieving long-term stabilization in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict zone and the wider Middle East.

Qatar’s prime minister pledged to continue its efforts to stop Israel’s war on Gaza, ahead of an emergency international summit to discuss a joint response after the Israeli attack in the Qatari capital Doha.

Arab and Islamic foreign ministers are gathering in Doha after Israel’s unprecedented missile strikes on Qatar that killed five Hamas members and a Qatari officer. The summit aims to formulate a collective regional response, with leaders warning Israel’s attack crossed ‘all red lines’, as Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar explains.

ASEAN nations have been closely observing the trajectory of US-China relations and have expressed their apprehensions vis-à-vis the uncertainty arising out of Trump tariffs. Leaders of Singapore and Malaysia have been particularly vocal in expressing their apprehensions.

While speaking at the opening of the 46th ASEAN Summit held at Kuala Lumpur, the Malaysian PM, Anwar Ibrahim, referred to the imposition of tariffs by US President Donald Trump. Said the Malaysian PM:

‘Indeed, a transition in the geopolitical order is underway, and the global trading system is under further strain with the recent imposition of US unilateral tariffs,’

How ASEAN countries have benefited from the China+1 strategy

Here it would be pertinent to point out that ASEAN nations have also benefitted from the China+1 strategy of Western companies. Through this strategy, Western companies have been keen to reduce their dependence upon China and have been shifting to several ASEAN countries. Companies have moved from China not just to Vietnam but to other ASEAN nations like Indonesia and Malaysia as well.

Impact of China-US thaw on ASEAN

While many would have thought that ASEAN countries would heave a sigh of relief after the China-US agreement signed in Geneva, via which the US reduced tariffs against China from 145 percent to 30 percent. There has been a mixed reaction to the same, given the possibility of companies redrawing their China+1 plans.

Malaysia’s interest in BRICS+

Another important impact of Trump’s policies has been ASEAN countries seeking entry into multilateral organizations. Indonesia entered BRICS as a member in January 2025.

Malaysia, which entered BRICS as a partner country in October 2024, has also applied for full membership. Two other ASEAN countries, Vietnam and Thailand, also entered BRICS.

Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan, while commenting on the ASEAN nation’s interest in joining BRICS:

‘Malaysia’s desire to join BRICS represents its effort to uphold policies and identity as an independent and neutral country, striking a balance with great powers and opening up new business and investment opportunities,’

Malaysia shares close economic ties with China as well as the US and the EU. Malaysia’s bilateral trade with China in 2024 exceeded $200 billion ($212.04 billion). The ASEAN nation’s trade with the US was estimated at $80.2 billion in 2024.

The Malaysian PM, Anwar Ibrahim, had earlier proposed an ‘Asian Monetary Fund’ as an alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In recent years, Malaysia has been pushing for “de-dollarization,” or trade in non-dollar currencies, with several countries.

Anwar Ibrahim’s Russia visit and discussion of BRICS+

Apart from several other bilateral issues, the role of Malaysia in BRICS+ was also discussed during the recent meeting between Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the former’s Russia visit. The Malaysian PM thanked Putin for his role in facilitating Malaysia’s entry into BRICS+. The Russian president, on his part, welcomed the entry of Malaysia and other ASEAN nations as partner countries into BRICS+ during Russia’s chairmanship of BRICS+ in 2024.

During the meeting of Australian PM Anthony Albanese and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto during the former’s Indonesia visit, one of the issues that was discussed was Indonesia’s entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and OECD. The CPTPP—earlier the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)—was initially conceived by former US President Barack Obama. During US President Donald Trump’s earlier presidency, the US had pulled out of TPP. While the organization did face a setback after the US exit from the CPTPP — members like Japan and Australia, which are wary of China’s growing clout in the Indo-Pacific, have been playing a key role in giving a push to economic linkages. Two other ASEAN countries—Malaysia and Vietnam—are already members of the CPTPP.

The Indonesian president thanked Australia for its support for Indonesian into the CPTPP.

The Australian PM, while commenting on his support for Indonesia’s entry into CPTPP:

‘I assure you, Mr. President, of Australia’s support for your joining the OECD as well as your accession to the CPTPP.’

The Australian PM also reiterated Indonesia’s strategic importance in the context of the Indo-Pacific.

Indonesia’s important role on the global stage

Indonesia has robust ties with both China and the US and seeks to use multilateral platforms for further enhancing its clout, as several middle powers have done in recent years. Indonesia has sought to present itself as an important voice of the Global South and as an important link between the G7 and G20.

ASEAN-China-GCC

On the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit, the first ASEAN-China-GCC Summit was held for the first time. The Malaysian PM dubbed this as extraordinary. Anwar Ibrahim also said:

‘I am confident that ASEAN, the GCC, and China can draw upon our unique attributes and shape a future that is more connected, more resilient, and more prosperous.’

Conclusion

In conclusion, the interest of countries like Malaysia and Indonesia in entering multilateral organizations is driven by the changing geopolitical situation in ASEAN and beyond. These nations need to be deft and nimble and can not afford to have a zero-sum approach towards the same. The recent ASEAN Summit is a strong illustration of how ASEAN member states are seeking to diversify their relationships by seeking entry into important multilateral blocs. Apart from this, one point that is evident from the recent ASEAN summit was that ASEAN as a grouping is also seeking to strengthen ties with groups like the GCC.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), China and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) agreed to “chart a unified and collective path towards a peaceful, prosperous, and just future”, following their meeting in the Malaysian capital, Kuala Lumpur.

In a world roiled by United States President Donald Trump’s threats of crippling tariffs and rising economic uncertainties, alternative centres of global power were on full display, with the GCC and China attending the ASEAN summit for the group’s inaugural trilateral meeting on Tuesday.

In their joint statement released on Wednesday, the GCC – comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – China, and ASEAN members Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar said they were committed to enhancing economic cooperation.

Chief among that cooperation will be the promotion of free trade, the signatories said, adding they looked “forward to the early completion of the GCC-China Free Trade Agreement negotiations” and the upgrading of the ASEAN-China free trade area.

“We reaffirm our collective resolve to work hand in hand to unleash the full potential of our partnership, and ensure that our cooperation translates into tangible benefits for our peoples and societies,” they said.

Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim – whose country is currently chair of ASEAN and hosted the summits – told a news conference that the US remains an important market while also noting that ASEAN, the GCC, and China collectively represent a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of $24.87 trillion with a total population of about 2.15 billion.

“This collective scale offers vast opportunities to synergise our markets, deepen innovation, and promote cross-regional investment,” Anwar said.

The prime minister went on to dismiss suggestions that the ASEAN bloc of nations was leaning excessively towards China, stressing that the regional grouping remained committed to maintaining balanced engagement with all major powers, including the US.

James Chin, professor of Asian studies at the University of Tasmania in Australia, told Al Jazeera that the tripartite meeting was particularly important for China, which is being “given a platform where the US is not around”.

ASEAN and the GCC “already view China as a global power”, Chin said.

‘The Gulf is very rich, ASEAN is a tiger, China…’

China’s Premier Li Qiang, who attended the summit, said Beijing was ready to work with the GCC and ASEAN “on the basis of mutual respect and equality”.

China will work with “ASEAN and the GCC to strengthen the alignment of development strategies, increase macro policy coordination, and deepen collaboration on industrial specialisation,” he said.

Former Malaysian ambassador to the US Mohamed Nazri bin Abdul Aziz said China was “quickly filling up the vacuum” in global leadership felt in many countries in the aftermath of Trump’s tariff threats.

The economic future looks bright, Nazri said, for ASEAN, China and the Gulf countries, where economies are experiencing high growth rates while the US and European Union face stagnation.

“The Gulf is very rich, ASEAN is a tiger, China… I cannot even imagine where the future lies,” Nazri said.

Jaideep Singh, an analyst with the Institute of Strategic & International Studies in Malaysia, said ASEAN’s trade with GCC countries has been experiencing rapid growth.

Total trade between ASEAN and the Gulf countries stood at some $63bn as of 2024, making GCC the fifth-largest external trading partner of the regional bloc, while Malaysia’s trade with the GCC grew by 60 percent from 2019 to 2024.

In terms of foreign direct investment, FDI from GCC countries in ASEAN totalled some $5bn as of 2023, of which $1.5bn went to Malaysia alone, Singh said.

However, the US, China, Singapore and the EU still make up the lion’s share of FDI in Malaysian manufacturing and services.

US still ASEAN’s biggest export market

Even as China’s trade with ASEAN grows, economist say, the US still remains a huge market for regional countries.

In early 2024, the US took over China as ASEAN’s largest export market, with 15 percent of the bloc’s exports destined for its markets, up nearly 4 percent since 2018, said Carmelo Ferlito, CEO of the Center for Market Education (CME), a think tank based in Malaysia and Indonesia.

“The US is also the largest source of cumulative foreign direct investment in ASEAN, with total stock reaching nearly $480bn in 2023 – almost double the combined US investments in China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan,” Ferlito said.

Israel’s war on Gaza was also highlighted at the ASEAN-GCC-China meeting on Tuesday.

Delegates condemned attacks against civilians and called for a durable ceasefire and unhindered delivery of fuel, food, essential services, and medicine throughout the Palestinian territory.

Supporting a two-state solution to the conflict, the joint communique also called for the release of captives and arbitrarily-detained people, and an end to the “illegal presence of the State of Israel in the occupied Palestinian territory as soon as possible”.

The civil war in Myanmar was also a focus of the talks among ASEAN members at their summit on Tuesday, who called for an extension and expansion of a ceasefire among the warring sides, which was declared following the earthquake that struck the country in March. The ceasefire is due to run out by the end of May. However, human rights groups have documented repeated air attacks by the military regime on the country’s civilian population despite the purported temporary cessation of fighting.

Zachary Abuza, professor of Southeast Asia politics and security issues at the Washington-based National War College, said that while Prime Minister Anwar may be “more proactive” – in his role as ASEAN chair – in wanting to resolve the conflict, Myanmar’s military rulers were “not a good faith actor” in peace talks.

“The military has absolutely no interest in anything resembling a power-sharing agreement,” he said.