forecasts

The U.S. economy will be hampered by the Trump administration’s tariffs in the coming months, which along with interest rate cuts could lead to a “stagflation-lite” scenario of modestly elevated inflation and unemployment, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast released Wednesday.

The fourth-quarter estimate also predicts that rising layoffs could lead to a recession, and if President Trump is successful in exerting more control over the Federal Reserve, a “full blown stagflation scenario becomes a more significant risk.”

“This forecast is being produced at a time when more extreme scenarios have become increasingly plausible, even though they do not yet represent our baseline outlook,” states the report by Clement Bohr, senior economist at the forecast.

UCLA’s report notes that the labor market “deteriorated notably” in June while inflation pivoted away from a path of “gradual normalization” onto a rising trajectory.

The quarterly forecast does not take into account the government shutdown that began Wednesday that could results in thousands of layoffs, but predicts third-quarter GDP growth will come in at just 1% on a seasonably adjusted basis, and it will weaken further as the full cost of the tariffs takes hold.

It expects growth to recover in the middle of next year and reach 2% by the fourth quarter, remaining there throughout 2027.

Driving the stagflation prediction is an effective tariff rate of about 11%, with the risk of future levies on pharmaceuticals and the potential lack of a resolution of the China trade dispute. The report notes the political pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the decision by the bank to cut the federal funds rate by a quarter point in September. UCLA predicts a similar rate cut this month.

Trump’s “big beautiful” budget reconciliation bill passed in July, which included $703 billion in temporary tax cuts over the next four years starting in 2026, also will provide substantial stimulus. The Consumer Price Index is expected to peak at 3.6% in the first quarter of next year before easing.

However, the economy will be held back by a tightening labor supply caused by retiring baby boomers and restrictive immigration policies. The unemployment rate has crept up to 4.3% and is expected to peak at 4.6% early next year.

Also Wednesday, closely watched ADP Research released figures showed private-sector payrolls decreased by 32,000 in September with job growth slowing across many industries.

The billions of dollars being invested in artificial intelligence by large technology firms has helped prop up the economy, the forecast noted, which should result in productivity gains — but the capital expenditures should tail off as a “trough of disillusionment” sets in when revenue gains don’t meet expectations.

The report also expects consumer consumption to weaken following a surge in electric-vehicle purchases in the third quarter due to the expiration of federal tax credits last month.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said if the government shutdown lasts a week or two it won’t have a “meaningful economic impact.” However, if it lasts for a month or more and is accompanied by mass federal layoffs, it would have a profound effect on the economy, Zandi said.

“It would wreak havoc on the financial markets as global markets and investors begin to wonder if we can govern ourselves,” he said. “That would mean higher interest rates and lower stock prices.”

Weather forecasts suggest Maiduguri and surrounding communities in Borno State, northeastern Nigeria, are set for reduced rainfall in the coming days, offering some relief to a city haunted by last year’s Sept. 10 devastating flood.

The chance of rain, which stood at 74 per cent last week, is expected to drop to 11 per cent today, easing pressure on the city’s fragile drainage systems and flood-prone neighbourhoods. ​According to AccuWeather, scattered showers are still expected, but without the intensity that typically triggers flash floods.

For residents, however, the reassurance is tempered by painful memories. Nearly half of Maiduguri was affected last year, with at least 150 lives lost, according to the National Emergency Management Agency, and over 400,000 people displaced. Critical infrastructure was damaged, livelihoods destroyed, and many survivors are still struggling to recover. 

The improved forecast offers hope, but Maiduguri’s long history of flooding means residents remain wary. Last year’s calamity was not caused solely by rainfall but by inadequate infrastructure, blocked drainage systems, and the dam’s failure. HumAngle reported extensively on the series of events that led to the flood. 

Babagana Zulum, the state governor, who visited the Alau Dam recently, assured residents that water levels are now stable after controlled releases since July.

“Based on current engineering analysis, there is no cause for alarm,” he told journalists.

Yet not everyone is convinced. Timothy Olanrewaju, a resident who was affected by last year’s flood, said the government’s assurance should be taken with a grain of salt.

“We can’t assume that just because the rain is easing compared to last month that we won’t experience flooding,” he said. “Two communities, 505 Housing Estate and Fori Layout, were flooded last weekend, even though there was no heavy rainfall in the city. The Ngada River simply overflowed its banks, and the water made its way into those communities.”

Like many residents, Timothy said he has yet to replace most of the items he lost in the last flood. “Even my car, which was submerged in the water for over a week, is still in terrible shape. I’ve spent a lot of money on it, but it’s not fully repaired,” he said, adding that he is still traumatised. 

“Every time I hear the sound of rain, I start to panic, thinking the flood is coming. A few days ago, I learned that some communities in the city were flooded, and it made me anxious. I began to worry that we would experience the same things we did last year.”

Residents take precaution

In the absence of certainty, some communities are taking matters into their own hands. At the State Low-cost Estate, one of the hardest-hit areas last year, residents have begun desilting their clogged drains during environmental sanitation exercises.

“We were blamed for the flooding we face here because of blocked drainage,” said Abdulkareem Mai Modu, a resident of the estate. “So, in order not to take any chances, we decided to pool our resources and clear all our waterways to avoid any disaster.”

Others, like automobile mechanic Yahaya Garba, remain displaced. ​“We are still taking temporary abodes at the homes of our relatives. I hope there will be a permanent solution to this annual calamity that comes to our homes,” he said. Yahaya’s home in Bulunkutu is still submerged from the recent excessive rainfall.

In the 505 Housing Estate, where floodwaters recently breached perimeter fences, resident Babagana Wakil described wading through knee-deep water.

​“Many residents to relocate as quickly as possible,” he said.

“The government needs to step up and ensure they monitor the flow of water and, when they see danger, pass on information to residents as quickly as possible so people can evacuate from flood-prone areas,” Timothy added.

Jet2 has said it will cut the number of seats available on its flights by around 200,000 in the coming months after the budget travel giant warned shareholders about earnings forecasts

Holidaymakers who rely on Jet2’s bargain fares will find fewer seats available in the coming months, after the budget airline received disappointing earnings projections.

The low-cost travel company is set to pull around 200,000 seats from the market over the next few months, leaving 5.6 million on offer during the winter period.

Whilst this still marks a nine per cent rise compared to last year, Jet2 has chosen to scale back its growth plans following predictions that the travel giant’s profits would fall short of expectations.

The news triggered a sharp decline in the company’s share price on Thursday, with analysts forecasting earnings of approximately £449m for the year ending March 2026, up from £446.5m the previous year. Stock values plummeted by roughly 13 per cent following the announcement.

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Jet2 revealed that cost-conscious travellers are increasingly displaying a “later booking profile”, snapping up flights at short notice and leaving the airline with “limited visibility” over passenger numbers during the winter months when many seats remain “still to sell.”

The low-cost carrier witnessed package holiday reservations climb by 2 per cent over the summer, which ThisIsMoney reports as a decline from the eight per cent surge recorded last year.

Nevertheless, these statistics also highlight shifting consumer behaviour, with flight-only bookings soaring by a substantial 17 per cent.

Jet2 CEO Steve Heapy informed shareholders that the concerning figures stemmed from “operating in a difficult market,” though he emphasised that their expanding customer base would “provide the foundation for a solid financial result this year and for further profitable growth in the years to come.”

The budget airline, which conducted its annual general meeting on Thursday, revealed it had introduced a “modest increase” in package holiday prices this summer and noted it would be premature to release “definitive” figures regarding the company’s overall profitability.

Last month, Jet2 became the first carrier in Britain to provide complimentary plane tickets to certain passengers, aiming to make their service more accessible for additional customers. All families travelling with a child under the age of two will now avoid purchasing a ticket for their little one, whether booking a package holiday or an individual flight.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, explained to ThisIsMoney: “Millions of people prioritise experiences over material goods, with foreign holidays high up the list of things they scrimp and save for. Such a trend should be positive for airlines and holiday companies, yet countless individuals are leaving it to the last minute to make a booking.

“Jet2 has once again bemoaned this situation, leaving it with cloudy rather than crystal clear earnings visibility. Management cannot keep their fingers crossed that sales will eventually come through; they need certainty given the expense in running a fleet of aircraft and a complex accommodation chain.

“Guidance that full-year earnings will be at the lower end of market forecasts has wiped out Jet2’s share price gains so far this year. It’s a disappointing setback for the business and has dragged down shares in other airlines including EasyJet and Wizz Air.”

Bitcoin is on one of its biggest runs ever – and a new project called Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER) is taking advantage. This Solana-powered Layer-2 has just passed the $4 million mark in its presale.

Analysts are taking it seriously – with one even calling for 100x returns after the HYPER token lists on exchanges.

With a high-yield staking system and a mission to unlock smart contracts for BTC, Bitcoin Hyper is gaining momentum fast. And as Bitcoin itself hovers near its all-time high, infrastructure plays like this are looking more and more attractive.

What Exactly Is Bitcoin Hyper & Why All the Hype?

Bitcoin Hyper wants to give Bitcoin a massive upgrade. Picture Bitcoin as an ultra-safe highway – but one that’s often bogged down with traffic.

Bitcoin Hyper is basically building a parallel road – using Solana’s super-fast tech stack – that can handle massive amounts of that traffic and always connects back to the main highway.

To achieve this, Bitcoin Hyper uses the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM), which gives it the “engine” it needs to handle complex apps and DeFi protocols.

And investors are excited by this setup. Bitcoin Hyper’s presale has already raised $4.1 million, driven by staking rewards that continue to yield an incredible 231% APY. That explains why more than 226 million HYPER tokens are already locked up.

Plus, Bitcoin Hyper’s community is growing rapidly. The project’s X (Twitter) following has ballooned to 10,900 people, while the official Telegram channel now boasts over 2,000 members.

HYPER Token Presale Heats Up as 100x Calls Get Louder

The hype around the Bitcoin Hyper presale is ramping up. In just a few months, it has gone from a niche idea to one of the most talked-about launches of 2025. The HYPER token’s price is now at $0.01235, with the listing price expected to be significantly higher, giving early buyers a slight, built-in advantage.

Would-be investors can secure HYPER by swapping tokens like ETH, SOL, USDT, USDC, or BNB. There’s even an option to buy directly through the Best Wallet mobile app.

Several well-known analysts are starting to drum up support. The team at 99Bitcoins – with over 710,000 YouTube subscribers – recently flagged it as one of the “best crypto presales” to invest in.

They even suggested HYPER could climb up to 100x after its exchange launch. That’s a bold call, but with this kind of presale momentum, it’s not being dismissed.

How Bitcoin Hyper Could Benefit from Bitcoin’s Bull Run

Bitcoin is doing what it does best right now: smashing expectations. After hitting a new all-time high above $123,000 earlier this month, the 2025 bull run is clearly in full swing. Plus, with crypto ETFs pulling in billions and a more open stance from the US government, the whole industry has changed for the better.

These kinds of conditions create a massive ripple effect. It’s like a gold rush – it isn’t just the miners who get rich, but also the people selling the pickaxes. Bitcoin Layer-2s could be the “pickaxes” of this cycle, and Bitcoin Hyper is set to cash in.

As BTC’s value rises, more people are looking for ways to use their coins. Bitcoin Hyper’s network is the onramp for them to do just that.

It’s the bridge that turns all that BTC buzz into real uses – and maybe some explosive returns for anyone who gets in early.

Visit Bitcoin Hyper Presale

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. ModernDiplomacy.eu is not a licensed crypto-asset service provider under EU regulation (MiCA). Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and involve significant risk. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions.

June 27 (UPI) — Nike is forecasting a rebound from slow sales and profits in the last quarter and despite $1 billion in added tariff costs on foreign goods of its sneakers and athletic gear.

The company, headquartered in Beaverton, Ore., said Thursday the tariff costs can be mitigated with products made elsewhere, and additional costs will be passed onto customers.

In late 2024, sales dropped 12% to $11.1 billion, the lowest since the third quarter of 2022, according to a report issued Thursday. Net income for the quarter plunged 86% to $200 million.

For fiscal 2025, Nike reported revenues of $46.3 billion — a 10% decline from fiscal 2024. Net income was 3.2 billion, down 44%.

The company posted an earnings per share of 14 cents for its fourth quarter, which is much lower than 99 cents the company posted in the same quarter a year earlier. Dividends were $2.3 billion, up 6% from the previous year.

CEO Elliott Hill said in an earnings call that the company’s worst days are behind it, and profits would begin to moderate in the quarters ahead.

“The results we’re reporting today in Q4 and in FY25 are not up to the Nike standard, but as we said 90 days ago, the work we’re doing to reposition the business through our ‘Win Now’ actions is having an impact,” said Hill on an earnings call, referencing the name of the company’s turnaround plan. “From here, we expect our business results to improve. It’s time to turn the page.”

Hill was brought in to lead the company last year to change its economic situation.

The company’s shares initially fell when it posted results after the closing bell Thursday. At the end of trading, the stock price was $61.56. On Friday, it went above $74, which is a 17% increase.

HSBC also raised its price target to $80. The all-time high Nike closing price was $168.16 on Nov. 05, 2021.

“Don’t hope for a V-shape, more like a Swoosh, but it does seem like a recovery is finally on its way after years of pain,” HSBC analyst Erwan Rambourg wrote in a note released Friday. “Sales momentum gets better from here; gross margin pressures should also start to ease later this year despite tariffs.”

“Long in the making but we think the inflection is finally here,” Rambourg wrote. “We think there is more than tangible evidence that Nike has a path to see its sales rebound in the not-too-distant future, and its margins to be repaired, and this despite an unfavorable tariff headwind.”

Nike confirmed it would take a $1 billion from tariffs, including in two countries where its goods are made: China and Vietnam.

China now manufactures 16% of Nike footwear that goes to the U.S. and plans are to reduce that to single digit.

In April, President Donald Trump placed a 46% tariff on products manufactured in Vietnam and 146% on goods made in China. He later reduced both rates with 10% in Vietnam and 30% in China.

Most U.S. trading partners have had the 10% baseline tariff after Trump paused higher ones until July 9 on the worst offenders, including China and Vietnam. Trump has said the pause could be extended.

Last month, the U.S. and China agreed trade a trade agreement that includes the Asian nation sending more rare earth metals to the U.S. in return for lifting export restrictions.

CFO Matt Friend said during the earnings call the tariffs “represent a new and meaningful cost headwind,” but they will “fully mitigate” the costs by reducing its supply chain reliance on China to single digits.

Hill described the turnaround plans, including boosting sales to female shoppers. During the last quarter, the company launched products in more than 200 female-led shops, including Aritzia. It also added a collection with WNBA star A’ja Wilson.

Nike has begun plans to sell on Amazon.

“Nike, Jordan and Converse teams will now come to work every day with a mission to create the most innovative and coveted product, footwear, apparel, and accessories for the specific athletes they serve,” Hill said. “These sport-obsessed teams will create greater dimension and distinction for our three brands, will make us more competitive, and will accelerate our growth.”

May 28 (UPI) — Global warming is expected to send temperatures soaring at or near record levels over the next five years, according to a Wednesday report from the World Meteorological Organization.

The WMO report said there’s an 86% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed the Paris Climate Agreement goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Farenheit, above the 1850-1900 global temperature average.

There’s an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will surpass 2024 as warmest on record.

The WMO report said global temperatures “are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, increasing climate risks and impacts on societies, economies and sustainable development.”

“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,” WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett said in a statement.

The report forecast a 70% chance that the 2025-2029 five-year-average warming will be more than the 2.7 degrees Farenheit threshold.

That’s up from the 47% chance forecast in last year’s report for the 2024-2028 period. In the 2023 report it was 32%.

The report’s data indicates a higher risk of climate-change intensified storms, wildfires, floods and drought.

“Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels,” the WMO said.

The WMO report follows the hottest 10 years ever on Earth.

The rapid warming of the Earth includes Arctic warming over the next five extended winters, which is expected to be more than three and a half times the global average.

The chance of seeing a global temperature rise of 3.6 degrees Fearenheit before 2030 is about 1%, but it was previously considered impossible.

“It is shocking that 2C is plausible,” Adam Scaife of the Met Office, which played a leading role in compiling the data, said it was “shocking” that reaching that temperature was plausible.

“It has come out as only 1% in the next five years but the probability will increase as the climate warms,” he said.