The company reports its latest earnings numbers next month, and investor expectations are likely low.
There hasn’t been much of a reason for investors to be excited about Target (TGT 0.80%) stock this year. The company’s financials have been underwhelming, and with the business heavily dependent on discretionary spending for its growth, there hasn’t been much hope that things will get better anytime soon, given the state of the economy.
This year, the stock is down more than 30% as it has continued to hit new lows on the way down. But it offers a high-yielding dividend of 5.2% and with an incredibly low valuation, it could make for an intriguing contrarian play. With earnings coming up on Nov. 19, should you consider taking a chance on the retail stock before it posts its latest numbers?
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Will the upcoming quarter be more of the same for Target?
To say things haven’t been going well for Target in recent years is an understatement. Sales have been sluggish and the company has been struggling to generate any kind of growth whatsoever. Consumers have been tightening up their budgets and spending less on discretionary purchases as concerns about tariffs and the economy as a whole have been affecting many retailers.
TGT Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts
In the company’s most recent quarter, which ended on Aug. 2, its net sales were down by a little less than 1%, totaling $25.2 billion. And what was even more problematic is that with expenses rising, Target’s net earnings fell by a whopping 22%, to $935 million.
The worry is that retailers haven’t felt the full impact of tariffs just yet, which could mean more bad news for Target’s business in the future. But in a way, that bearish outlook could work to the stock’s advantage.
Expectations appear low for Target
Target’s stock has been in a prolonged tailspin this year. And if the company doesn’t give investors much reason for optimism in its upcoming earnings report, it could be on track for an even worse year than in 2022, when the stock market crashed and its shares plummeted by 36%.
The retail stock trades at a lowly 10 times its trailing earnings, and even when factoring in analyst expectations, its forward price-to-earnings multiple is not much higher at 11. There’s plenty of bearishness priced into the stock, which could make it easier for Target not to disappoint investors; any bit of positive news could give this beaten-down stock some much-needed life.
The bar is definitely low given the discount Target trades at, and it hasn’t been this cheap in years.
I wouldn’t buy Target’s stock just yet
Target is a good long-term buy and I believe it can recover. But it’s also undergoing a change in CEO, macroeconomic conditions are far from ideal for its business, and there’s been a flurry of negativity around the stock this year. Given all those factors, I don’t see a reprieve coming just yet, as the economy is still on shaky ground and there’s little reason to expect a turnaround at this stage.
If you’re a long-term investor, you may want to consider taking a position in the stock, but only if you’re prepared for a turbulent ride and are willing to wait for at least a couple of years for economic conditions to improve.
The safer option is to wait and see what the company’s strategy looks like under its new CEO, Michael Fiddelke, who takes over in February and to reevaluate the stock at that point. With so much uncertainty around the business, there simply isn’t an overwhelming reason to buy shares of Target today. It could be a while before the business can turn things around, and in the meantime, there are better growth stocks to invest in.
David Jagielski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Target. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.