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Baruch Lev is Philip Bardes professor emeritus of Accounting and Finance, Kaufman Management Center, Leonard N. Stern School of Business at New York University. Feng Gu is chair and professor of Accounting and Law at the School of Management, State University of New York at Buffalo. Together, they recently published The M&A Failure Trap: Why So Many Mergers and Acquisitions Fail, and How the Few Succeed (Wiley). They discuss their findings, and the lessons they drew for would be acquirers, with Global Finance.

Global Finance: Why did you write this book now? What is it about the current M&A environment that prompted you?

Lev: Three years ago, Feng and I, as keen observers of M&A, saw several troubling things. There was a large, continuous increase in write-offs of goodwill in investment in acquisitions. Write-offs are basically a recognition by management of a partial or total failure of the acquisition, which is a very bad sign, particularly if it’s increasing over time. We also saw, to our surprise, a huge spike in the last 10 to 15 years in conglomerate mergers: mergers of unrelated entities where there are no synergies. And basically, all of them, or most of them would fail, but there is still a large increase in conglomerate mergers. We also saw a large increase in stock prices, which is usually followed by large merger waves.

GF: What methodology did you follow to study mergers, and what were your top-level findings?

Lev: We took a sample of no less than 40,000 acquisitions, a really representative sample over the last 40 years, and applied quite advanced statistics to it. We found some amazing things. One is that the failure rate of acquisitions is 70% to 75%, where those acquisitions don’t increase sales or decrease costs or create shareholder value. You would expect managers who are going to do these extremely expensive, elaborate deals to learn from what they do, and what we found is, there really is not a learning curve, more like an unlearning curve.

I would like to focus for a minute on some overall attributes. Most CEOs are confident; that’s how you get there. But overconfidence means that they believe their abilities to acquire, to invest, are substantially above their real abilities, and studies have shown that something like 30%, 40% of CEOs are overconfident. One of the main characteristics of an overconfident CEO is multiple acquisitions. They are convinced that even if they take losers, they will turn them into great winners.

We also focus on something that I didn’t see before in the literature, and that’s the wrong incentives for managers. Most companies pay CEOs an acquisition bonus. These bonuses are quite large, $5 million, $15 million, $20 million, and they are paid for conducting the acquisition, not conducting successful acquisitions. And we found something else that we didn’t see before. If you look at buyers in general, their operating position, their earnings, their sales, are weakening over time.

And of course, the reason to buy is somehow to revive the business model. But a weak buyer is an invitation to failure. Its stock prices is usually too low to use for acquisition, so it has to raise debt, which is very, very oppressive. And the talent of the target doesn’t like to move to work for buyers’ with lagging operations.

Gu: The human element is a frequently ignored aspect of M&A, and we put a lot of effort into uncovering some previously unknown, important patterns concerning the behavior of employees around the time of acquisition. For example, as soon as a merger or acquisition announcement is made, the employees of the target company start leaving. Many of them realize, okay, we know from previous experience, once two companies are merged, many employees would lose their jobs. So, especially the most talented employees don’t want to wait until this happens to them. And after the acquisition, the same trend basically continues, but this time, most of that is likely driven by the merged company’s decision to increase efficiency by laying off employees in order to create synergies like cost savings. After several years of this squeeze, employee productivity has continued to decline. In fact, you don’t see, generally, employee productivity recovering to the pre-acquisition level.

GF: About the loss of talent, can better, more timely communication help prevent this?

Lev: Managers usually provide very extensive information upon the acquisition announcement, and studies have shown that most of this information is highly optimistic. They speak about huge synergies to come and great things to be had from the acquisitions. I would say, if you cut 50% of this—excuse me—bullshit, and you provide a plan, particularly that shows how employees of the target will be integrated into the new company, what new positions are awaiting them, what things they should do, like moving from country to country, reducing the uncertainty and focusing on the new opportunities they will have, perhaps with some financial incentives, more of them may stay.

GF: Is there anything systematic that would-be acquirers can do to anticipate success or failure?

Lev: We introduce a new idea to the M&A literature, an acquisition scorecard. We used our statistical model to identify the 10 most important factors that either positively or negatively affect the consequences of acquisitions, and we weighted them accordingly. Some factors are more important than others, particularly for executives contemplating an acquisition. We provide a very user-friendly tool where you just insert the numbers from the target and from the buyer, and you get a score indicating the likelihood of success.

GF: When is a company well-placed to make an acquisition?

Lev: The ideal buyer would look like a company that is doing reasonably well, not necessarily incredibly well; a company that can use some of its stock for payment, not just cash; a company that will be attractive to employees of the target. So don’t wait until a crisis is at its peak and you incur losses, lose market share, lose customers. That’s a bad time to buy. Look ahead! Look ahead to when your patents are going to expire. Look ahead to your business model, when it’s going to plateau. Look at the competition who are creeping up on you, and then, relatively early, make a decision and buy. Don’t wait until it’s too late.

GF: When it comes to due diligence, what should managers be doing to avoid a rude surprise?

Lev: One important element of successful due diligence is to look at the accounting. I know it’s boring—definitely for the CEO and maybe even the CFO—but a good analysis of the target’s books is essential. In the case of Hewlett-Packard’s buying of Autonomy, a forensic accountant has shown that you could have seen easily that their books were manipulated for 10 years prior. Every quarter it either met or exceeded analysts’ revenue forecasts. This is impossible, I think, even for Amazon. So do even the mundane things seriously: go over the accounting, the contracts, and then, of course, all the human elements. You want to be sure that what you buy is worth the price. Gu: Another area of failure in due diligence is technologyrelated. Nowadays a growing number of non-tech companies are buying tech startups, trying to modernize their business model. The main asset they’re trying to acquire is not a physical asset, it’s not inventory, it’s not even cash. It’s the alleged technology used by the target to penetrate a new type of market. If the buyer does not do a very good job in due diligence to really verify the technology they are trying to acquire, it can turn out to be worthless to the buyer. Later on, we’ll see a huge goodwill write-off showing a completely failed acquisition: very, very embarrassing for the CEO of the buying company.

GF: What are the most important things that a would-be acquirer can do to improve its chances of success?

Lev: First, they should change the incentives; incentives for acquisitions should be given only for successful acquisitions.

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WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, Mont., Jan. 02, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Sandfire Resources America Inc. (“Sandfire America” or the “Company”) announces a positive ruling for the Company by the Montana Supreme Court upholding a 2023 District Court decision regarding the water rights related to Tintina Montana Inc.’s Mine Operating Permit, of the Black Butte Copper Project.

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The original suit was filed jointly against the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation (“MT DNRC”) and Tintina Montana Inc. (“Tintina,” Sandfire America’s wholly owned subsidiary) in August 2022. As background, Tintina filed its application for a beneficial groundwater permit with the MT DNRC in September 2018. In March 2020, the MT DNRC determined that Tintina had satisfactorily met all the statutory criteria for the issuance of the Permit. The MT DNRC’s decision was upheld by a MT DNRC Hearing Examiner when challenged by five environmental organizations who filed objections to the Permit. The Objectors appealed the decision to the Montana district court, and on April 12, 2023, District Court Judge Hayworth ruled that the DNRC and the Hearing Examiner properly determine mine dewatering is not a beneficial use of water and dismissed the Objectors’ Petition for Judicial Review.

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Objectors appealed the district court’s decision to the Montana Supreme Court in May 2023. Additional intervenors in the suit supporting the MT DNRC and Tintina, include the MT Stockgrowers Association, MT Farm Bureau Federation, the Association of Gallatin Agricultural Irrigators, the MT Chamber of Commerce, the MT League of Cities and Towns, Inc., and the MT Water Resources Association. On January 2, 2025, the Montana Supreme Court in a 5-2 decision affirmed the district court’s determination that mine dewatering is not a beneficial use of water.

VP of Communications Nancy Schlepp shared, “We are grateful for this commonsense decision that maintains longstanding water law in the state of Montana. We appreciate the Court’s diligent review of this case. Following February’s Supreme Court ruling fully reinstating our permit, the entire Sandfire America team has remained focused on implementing a world-class, environmentally safe mining project, and today’s decision continues us down that path.”

Lincoln Greenidge, CEO of Sandfire America shared, “Black Butte Copper now has all permits to proceed with the Feasibility work for this project. We remain diligently focused on reaching an investment decision to build the mine of which all Montanans, and the North American mining community can be proud.”

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Contact Information:
Sandfire Resources America Inc.
Nancy Schlepp, VP of Communications and Government Relations
Mobile: 406-224-8180
Office: 406-547-3466
Email: [email protected]

Jerry Zieg, Vice President of Exploration for the Company, is a Qualified Person for the purposes of NI 43-101 and has also reviewed and approved the information of a scientific or technical nature contained in this news release.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: Certain disclosures in this document constitute “forward looking information” within the meaning of Canadian securities legislation, including statements related to the Company’s Mine Operating Permit, the Company’s water rights, permitting timelines and the Company’s plans for advancing the Black Butte Copper Project and expected outcomes. In making these forward-looking statements, the Company has applied certain factors and assumptions that the Company believes are reasonable, including that the Company will receive required regulatory approvals, that the Company will continue to be able to access sufficient funding to execute its plans, and that the results of exploration and development activities are consistent with management’s expectations. However, the forward-looking statements in this document are subject to numerous risks, uncertainties and other factors, including factors relating to the Company’s operation as a mineral exploration and development company and the Black Butte Copper Project, that may cause future results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements, including that results of exploration and development activities will not be consistent with management’s expectations, delays in obtaining or inability to obtain required government or other regulatory approvals or financing, failure of plant, equipment or processes to operate as anticipated, the risk of accidents, labor disputes, inclement or hazardous weather conditions, unusual or unexpected geological conditions, ground control problems, earthquakes, flooding and all of the other risks generally associated with the development of mining facilities. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. The Company does not intend, and expressly disclaims any intention or obligation to, update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

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Outgoing President Joe Biden has awarded the Presidential Citizens Medal, the second-highest civilian honour in the United States, to members of a congressional committee that investigated the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.

A total of 20 honourees were recognised in a ceremony at the White House on Thursday.

Among them were an activist who campaigned to legalise same-sex marriage in the US, a military doctor who improved battlefield trauma care, and a civil rights leader who laid the groundwork for desegregation.

“ The most important title in America is not president but citizen. It is ‘We the people,’” Biden said, quoting the preamble to the US Constitution. “ These are the words of the rock upon which this entire nation has been built.”

But a couple of the former legislators honoured were explicitly praised for their work on a committee in the House of Representatives charged with probing the January 6 attack.

One recipient was the committee chair, Democrat Bennie Thompson of Louisiana. The second was his vice chair, former Republican Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming.

Extended applause welcomed Cheney to the stage at the White House on Thursday, as an announcer praised her “for putting the American people over party”. Thompson, meanwhile, was hailed for his “lifelong dedication to safeguarding our Constitution”.

What is January 6?

Cheney has become a political lightning rod since her years on the committee. She is a popular target of criticism for President-elect Donald Trump, the de facto leader of the Republican Party.

The January 6 attack was spurred by Trump’s false claims that he had won the 2020 presidential election.

On that day, Trump held a “Stop the Steal” rally outside of the White House, repeating unsubstantiated allegations of voter fraud.

Thousands of his supporters then travelled several blocks west to the US Capitol, where they attacked law enforcement and broke into the building while Congress was certifying the election results.

Lawmakers were evacuated, and rioters were heard to chant threats like, “Hang Mike Pence,” a reference to the vice president who was overseeing the vote certification.

As of November 2024, the US Justice Department reported that 1,561 people have been charged with federal crimes stemming from the riot. A total of 645 were sentenced to incarceration.

The agency noted that firearms, tasers, knives, axes and pepper spray were among the weapons the rioters brought into the Capitol during the January 6 attack.

Biden has previously awarded the Presidential Citizens Medal to Capitol police officers and election workers who received threats in the wake of the 2020 vote, including Ruby Freeman and her daughter Shaye Moss.

“ I’ve been honoured to present law enforcement officers who defended our Capitol on January 6th and the state and local election officials, elected leaders, who defended the free and fair election of 2020,” Biden said at Thursday’s ceremony.

“Today, we celebrate a new group of Americans who dedicated their careers to serving our democracy in other essential ways.”

Cheney versus Trump

Thursday’s medal ceremony took place just days before the riot’s fourth anniversary — and less than three weeks before Trump himself is set to take office for a second term. He will be sworn in on January 20.

Trump previously served from 2017 to 2021, at which time Biden, the winner of the 2020 race, succeeded him.

In the months after the January 6 riot, the House of Representatives voted to assemble an independent investigative committee to look into the circumstances surrounding the attack.

The commission was ultimately dissolved in 2023 when the House switched from Democratic to Republican leadership. But in its final weeks, the commission released a damning, 850-page report recommending criminal charges against Trump.

It accused him of a “multi-part conspiracy” to overturn the 2020 election results.

“The central cause of January 6th was one man, former President Donald Trump, whom many others followed,” the report said. “None of the events of January 6 would have happened without him.”

Cheney was one of only two Republicans on the committee. Both have since left office. Cheney lost her party primary while her Republican colleague Adam Kinzinger did not seek re-election at all.

She and her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, have since become visible critics of Trump, even supporting his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, in the 2024 presidential race.

In an interview with NPR in December 2023, Cheney accused Trump of transforming the Republican Party into a “cult of personality” and called him a threat to US democracy.

“He talks about weaponising the levers of our government against his political opponents,” Cheney told the NPR programme, Fresh Air. “I don’t view that so much through the lens of what it would mean for me personally. But I think that what it would mean for the republic is that we won’t be a republic any more.”

Meanwhile, Trump has suggested the members of the January 6 committee should be arrested, spurring fears of political retribution.

“Honestly, they should go to jail,” he told the NBC programme Meet the Press in December.

He repeatedly accused the committee, without proof, of deleting or suppressing evidence. “Cheney did something that’s inexcusable, along with Thompson and the people on the un-select committee of political thugs and, you know, creeps.”

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Due to the closure of the Securities and Exchange Commission and U.S. stock markets on January 9, in honor of the late former President Jimmy Carter, Tilray has moved its earnings announcement to January 10

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NEW YORK and LEAMINGTON, Ontario, Jan. 02, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Tilray Brands, Inc. (“Tilray” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq: TLRY; TSX: TLRY), a leading global lifestyle and consumer packaged goods company, today announced that the Company will now release its financial results for the second quarter ended November 30, 2024, before the financial market opens on January 10, 2025. The Company originally scheduled the release of its second quarter financial results before market open on January 9, 2025. This change reflects the observance of the National Day of Mourning in honor of former President Jimmy Carter.

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Live Conference Call and Audio Webcast

Tilray will host a live conference call, which will be webcast, to discuss these results at 8:30 am Eastern Time. The webcast can be accessed on the Investors section of Tilray’s website at www.Tilray.com.

About Tilray Brands

Tilray Brands, Inc. (“Tilray”) (Nasdaq: TLRY; TSX: TLRY), is a leading global lifestyle and consumer packaged goods company with operations in Canada, the United States, Europe, Australia, and Latin America that is leading as a transformative force at the nexus of cannabis, beverage, wellness, and entertainment, elevating lives through moments of connection. Tilray’s mission is to be a leading premium lifestyle company with a house of brands and innovative products that inspire joy, wellness and create memorable experiences. Tilray’s unprecedented platform supports over 40 brands in over 20 countries, including comprehensive cannabis offerings, hemp-based foods, and craft beverages.

For more information on how we are elevating lives through moments of connection, visit Tilray.com and follow @Tilray on all social platforms.

Media Contact:
[email protected]

Investor Contact:
[email protected]

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Gaza’s Government Media Office said on Thursday that Israeli military forces carried out 34 air strikes over the previous 24 hours, resulting in a death toll of 71, including the head of the enclave’s police force and his deputy.

Israeli attacks were reported across the embattled enclave, including in the so-called humanitarian zone of al-Mawasi and northern Gaza’s Jabalia refugee camp, which has been bombed repeatedly in recent days.

Palestinians have also been killed and wounded in attacks on Gaza City’s Remal and Shujayea neighbourhoods, and the town of az-Zawayda, in the central Gaza Strip.

Philippe Lazzarini, head of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA), says Israel’s deadly strike on southern Gaza’s displacement camp al-Mawasi is yet another signal to end the war.

“As the year begins, we got reports of yet another attack on al-Mawasi with dozens of people killed, another reminder that there is no humanitarian zone let alone a safe zone [in Gaza],” he said. “Every day without a ceasefire will bring more tragedy.”

Asked about Thursday’s reported death toll, a spokesperson for the Israeli army said the military followed international law in waging the war on Gaza and it takes “feasible precautions to mitigate civilian harm”.

Among those killed on Thursday were photojournalist Hassan al-Qishaoui. At least 217 journalists and media workers have been killed in Gaza since October 7, 2023.

Details have started to emerge about the man killed in the explosion of a Tesla Cybertruck outside of the Trump International Hotel Las Vegas on New Year’s Day.

At a news conference on Thursday, Las Vegas Sheriff Kevin McMahill said that the coroner’s office suggested man died by suicide before the blast.

“The individual had sustained a gunshot wound to the head prior to the detonation of the vehicle,” McMahill told reporters. He added that a handgun was found at the man’s feet.

Earlier in the day, news agencies including The Associated Press and AFP identified the man as an active-duty soldier named Matthew Livelsberger.

Citing unnamed military officials, the news outlets explained that Livelsberger was on leave from his post with the United States Army Special Operations Command.

He was a highly decorated Green Beret who had served in various roles with the US military since 2006, with stints in Afghanistan, Ukraine and Tajikistan, among other locations.

But on Wednesday, Livelsberger was allegedly found dead inside the Tesla Cybertruck burning on the circular driveway outside the hotel’s glass front doors.

Seven other people were wounded when the Cybertruck exploded, and details remain scarce about the circumstances surrounding the blast.

Kenny Cooper, a special agent for the the US Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, expressed surprise that a military member was involved in the explosion, which did little damage except to the Cybertruck.

“The level of sophistication is not what we would expect from an individual with this type of military experience,” Kenny Cooper said.

Early investigations indicate the Cybertruck has been carrying fireworks and camp fuel cannisters when it exploded.

The Trump International Hotel Las Vegas is named for President-elect Donald Trump, a co-owner of the property who is set to take office for a second term in the White House on January 20.

In a brief statement on Thursday, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) said investigators had searched a home in Colorado in connection to the incident but offered no further details.

“FBI Denver; the Denver Field Division of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives; and the Colorado Springs Police Department are conducting law enforcement activity at a residential address in Colorado Springs,” the statement reads.

“FBI Denver personnel and specialized teams will be on-site for several hours. This activity is related to the explosion in Las Vegas on Wednesday.”

The explosion took place on the same day as a deadly car-ramming attack in the southern city of New Orleans that killed at least 15 people, including the suspect.

At least 35 more people were injured in that attack, according to an official estimate on Thursday. That incident is being investigated as a terrorist attack, and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) were allegedly discovered in coolers left on the street at the crime scene.

But authorities have stopped short of connecting the two incidents.

At a news briefing in New Orleans on Thursday, Christopher Raia, a deputy assistant director from the FBI’s counterterrorism division, emphasised he has found no connection so far.

“We are following up on all potential leads and not ruling everything out,” Raia told reporters. “However, at this point, there is no definitive link between the attack here in New Orleans and the one in Las Vegas.”

Law enforcement initially believed that the suspect in the New Orleans attack, 42-year-old Shamsud-Din Jabbar, had received assistance from others.

But on Thursday, Raia said authorities now believe Jabbar acted alone. “We’re confident at this point that there are no accomplices.”

He said the initial reports of accomplices were likely spurred by witnesses who reported passersby examining the two coolers with the IEDs, without knowing what was inside.

Jabbar was ultimately shot and killed after exiting his vehicle and opening fire on police.

Both the New Orleans car-ramming and the Las Vegas Cybertruck explosion involved vehicles that had been rented through the car rental app Turo.

Livelsberger and Jabbar were also both military veterans who spent time at Fort Bragg, a North Carolina military installation now known as Fort Liberty.

But an anonymous official told The Associated Press that the two men were not stationed at the base at the same time.

One of the most closely watched efforts introduced by Donald Trump upon his return to the White House is undeniably DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Two of Trump’s closest allies—multi-billionaire Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur turned politician and former presidential candidate—will lead the new body.

DOGE is an advisory group rather than a federal department. Musk and Ramaswamy work ‘pro bono’ as external private experts. They aim to slash all “unnecessary costs and regulations,” resulting in a more streamlined and efficient administration.

They pledge to restructure some of the leading federal agencies or even completely liquidate them.

Ramaswami vows to shut down the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Internal Revenue Service, and the US Department of Education.

Musk is trying to dismantle all bureaucracy and promises overall cuts of around $2 trillion, about a third of the federal government’s annual budget.

In a first glimpse of what will happen when DOGE is up and running, last month, the power duo stopped a bipartisan spending bill in Congress by taking to social media, urging taxpayers to help “stop the steal,” and threatening lawmakers with primary challenges if they voted for it.

From a legal point of view, however, there could be some hurdles on the horizon. “Notwithstanding its formal name, the Department of Government Efficiency will be purely advisory in nature,” notes Caleb Burns, Attorney at Law at Wiley Rein. “Whether it can operate privately, and the extent to which the President can execute on DOGE’s recommendations, is not as a legal matter entirely clear and may have to be settled by the courts. The President cannot simply wipe regulations off the books,” he adds, “but must comply with the Administrative Procedure Act, requiring agencies to take certain deliberative actions which are often grounds for legal challenge.”

Mixed expectations exist about whether and how DOGE could cut through government inefficiency. However, considering how the two moguls have fared so far, they might be able to make it.

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Cameco Corp. kicked off the new year with a surprise for its investors: Its joint-venture mine in Kazakhstan suspended production without warning.

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“We are disappointed and surprised by this unexpected suspension and we will be seeking further clarification on how this transpired,” Cameco said in a press release on Thursday.

The Saskatoon-based company owns 40 per cent of the mine through Inkai LLP; Kazatomprom JSC, the national atomic company of Kazakhstan, owns the other 60 per cent.

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Cameco attributed the closure to “the delayed submission” of certain documents to Kazakhstan’s ministry of energy. It said Inkai did not receive an extension, so Kazatomprom on Dec. 30 directed the joint venture to plan to shut down the mine in January in order to not violate Kazakhstan legislation.

Cameco said it had not received any reports as of Dec. 26 that mentioned the suspension of production as a possible risk.

A Cameco spokesperson said no one was available from the company to make any additional comments.

Mohamed Sidibé, an analyst who covers Cameco at National Bank Financial, said the impact of the closure would depend on when it restarts, which remains uncertain.

If the situation is resolved in 30 days, Cameco could draw on its own uranium inventory to mitigate the impact, and it would only decrease the company’s estimated EBITDA for 2025 by about one per cent at current spot prices.

“A material reduction of our estimated production at JV Inkai in 2025 could negatively impact the cost of sales with a bigger portion of purchases needed to come from elsewhere,” he said in a note on Thursday, “though (Cameco) does have options through inventory, spot purchases, or other commitments to mitigate this impact.”

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Inkai was expected to contribute four per cent of the global uranium production this year, or about 169 million pounds, according to Sidibé. He wrote that the joint venture accounts for seven per cent of Cameco’s total equity value based on his modelling.

Cameco’s shares had dropped 11.75 per cent last month, but rose two per cent as of midday Thursday.

In November, Russia imposed restrictions on enriched uranium exports to the United States as part of an escalating trade battle.

Jacob White, a product manager at Sprott Asset Management, in a note last month said uranium spot prices fell in November due to an overhang of supply. But White said uranium miners primarily sell on longer-term contracts, which hit 16-year highs in 2024.

He added that the Russia-U.S. trade battle is putting pressure on utilities to look for alternative sources of uranium, including from Kazatomprom, which has been deepening its ties with China.

• Email: [email protected]

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US technology billionaire says Tommy Robinson, who is serving in 18-month prison sentence, ‘should be freed’.

Elon Musk has called for the jailed British far-right activist Tommy Robinson to be released and criticised UK Prime Minister Sir Kier Starmer for his response to grooming scandals when he served as the country’s chief prosecutor more than a decade ago.

In a flurry of posts on social media on Thursday, the US technology billionaire said that Robinson, who founded the far-right English Defence League and whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, “should be freed”.

“Why is Tommy Robinson in a solitary confinement prison for telling the truth?” Musk wrote on X, the social media platform he owns, on Thursday.

“He should be freed and those who covered up this travesty should take his place in that cell,” he wrote.

Robinson, a one-time football hooligan with a string of UK criminal convictions, is serving an 18-month jail term after he admitted contempt of court in a long-running libel case involving a Syrian refugee.

Musk also posted several messages about the grooming scandals which took place over decades in a number of English towns and cities including Rochdale, Rotherham and Oldham until they were uncovered more than a decade ago.

Musk shared various other accounts’ claims around the scandals and criticised Starmer’s response to the scandal.

“In the UK, serious crimes such as rape require the Crown Prosecution Service’s approval for the police to charge suspects. Who was the head of the CPS when rape gangs were allowed to exploit young girls without facing justice? Keir Starmer, 2008-2013,” he posted, criticising the current British prime minister.

Starmer was the head of the CPS in that period and he began a prosecution of a grooming gang in Rochdale during his final year in the role, shortly after the scandal emerged. None of the probes into the scandals singled Starmer out for blame or found that he tried to block prosecutions.

In 2012, Starmer blamed the justice system’s flawed approach to sexual exploitation and ordered a comprehensive restructuring of the CPS’s responses to it.

Musk’s tweets on Robinson have garnered support from far-right figures, including Dutch politician Geert Wilders, as well as some right-wing YouTube channels who also called for his release.

The US tech billionaire’s latest intervention in UK politics comes after his recent declaration of support for Germany’s far-right AfD party, where he claimed that AfD is the only party which can “save” Germany as the country heads towards snap elections next month.

The German government has accused him of interfering in the vote.

Musk has also openly backed other far-right figures in Europe including Nigel Farage of the UK’s Reform party and Italy’s right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Musk was also a prominent funder and supporter of US President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign. Last month, Trump refuted claims that he had “ceded the presidency” to Musk.

US military veteran from Texas is the suspect in the New Orleans car-ramming attack that killed more than 15 people. This is what we know about the incident.

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The price of the Dutch TTF, the benchmark European natural gas climbed by more than 4% to €51 per megawatt-hour, its highest level since October 2023, before easing a little, on the first trading day after Russian gas stopped flowing to Europe via Ukraine.

Freezing temperatures across the north of the region pushed prices up on Thursday morning with a backdrop of losing 5% of the EU’s natural gas import as Russian import stopped entering the European Union via Ukraine on 1 January, after decades of operating, due to a transit deal expiring, raising concerns about faster storage withdrawals.

European gas inventories have been depleted at the fastest pace since 2021, sitting at around 75% due to the particularly cold weather in Europe over the past weeks.

According to the industry organisation Gas Infrastructure Europe, the volume of gas in the block’s storage facilities decreased by about 19% from the end of September, when the replenishment season ends, to mid-December.

There is no risk of an immediate energy crisis or shortfall in Europe, and the European Union (EU) expects no immediate impact on consumer prices. But Europe appears to be more vulnerable to market volatility if it aims to replace its missing natural gas as gas prices have been soaring by 50% year-on-year. Higher energy prices could hurt further the bloc’s competitiveness and raise costs to households. 

Prices may also rise if Europe turns to increase its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.

Central European countries are the most vulnerable to losing access to Russian natural gas via Ukraine, even though they have an alternative route, TurkStream, to receive Russian natural gas, but that link is not sufficient to fully compensate for the loss of the Ukraine route.

Europe looks at other solutions

The impact will be felt especially in Hungary and Slovakia, for which the Ukrainian transit route met 65% of gas demand in 2023, according to Bruegel.  

The European Commission has laid out several solutions to help affected countries, including filling needs through supplies of Greek, Turkish and Romanian gas via the Trans-Balkan route.

All together, there is no concern that the EU will run out of gas this winter, however, refilling its storage could be more costly than expected.

Gas prices for next summer recently surged above those for winter 2025-26, which will make it more costly to restock, reports Bloomberg, citing Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management in Copenhagen, who said: “There is an increasing risk that the EU will exit the winter with low gas storage levels, making it expensive to replenish them.”

Humanitarian teams from the United Nations and the World Health Organisation have arrived in northern Gaza. They say hospitals are in ruins and people have no water, food or sanitation.

Authorities say incinerating poison is environmentally safe as activists raise alarm over potential water contamination.

Indian authorities say they have moved hundreds of tonnes of hazardous waste remaining more than 40 years after the world’s deadliest industrial disaster struck the city of Bhopal.

The waste from the site of the 1984 disaster, which killed more than 25,000 people and left at least half a million people with severe health issues, was sent to a disposal facility where it will take three to nine months to incinerate, officials said on Thursday.

In the early hours of December 3, 1984, methyl isocyanate gas leaked from a pesticide factory owned by American Union Carbide Corporation, poisoning more than half a million people in Bhopal, the capital of the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh.

More than 40 years later, on Thursday morning, a convoy of trucks transported 337 metric tonnes of that poison to a waste disposal plant in Madhya Pradesh’s industrial town of Pithampur, 230km (142 miles) from Bhopal.

Swatantra Kumar Singh, director of the Bhopal Gas Tragedy Relief and Rehabilitation Department, told Reuters news agency the waste would be disposed of in an environmentally safe manner that would not harm the local ecosystem.

The federal pollution control agency had carried out a trial run for the waste disposal process in 2015 with 10 metric tonnes of poison, finding that levels of resulting emissions were in line with national standards, the state government said in a statement.

However, activists claim the solid waste would be buried in landfills after incineration, contaminating the water and creating an environmental problem.

“Why is the polluter Union Carbide and Dow Chemical not being compelled to clean up its toxic waste in Bhopal?” asked Rachna Dhingra, a Bhopal-based activist who has worked with survivors of the tragedy.

Groundwater contamination

Built in 1969, the Union Carbide plant, which is now owned by Dow Chemical, was seen as a symbol of industrialisation in India, generating thousands of jobs for the poor and manufacturing cheap pesticides for millions of farmers.

Disaster struck the factory in 1984 when one of the tanks storing the deadly chemical methyl isocyanate shattered its concrete casing, releasing 27 tonnes of the toxic gas into the air.

About 3,500 people were killed instantly, with up to 25,000 estimated to have died overall. Hundreds of thousands were poisoned, condemned to a future of cancer, stillbirths, miscarriages, lung and heart disease.

Testing of groundwater near the site in the past revealed that levels of chemicals causing cancer and birth defects were 50 times higher than what is accepted as safe by the United States Environmental Protection Agency.

Communities blame a range of health problems – including cerebral palsy, hearing and speech impairments and other disabilities – on the accident and the contamination of the groundwater.

The order to clear the waste was made in December, following the 40th anniversary of the disaster, by the high court in Madhya Pradesh state, which set a one-month deadline.

“Are you waiting for another tragedy?” said Chief Justice Suresh Kumar Kait, according to a report in The Times of India.

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Bitcoin experienced a 150% rally in 2024, positioning itself as one of the top market performers in the year. This can be attributed to three bullish factors – regulatory optimism, an improved macro environment, and mounting investor enthusiasm.

Looking ahead, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is expected to extend its bullish trend in 2025, with analysts projecting it may reach a price range of between $200,000 (€193,000) and $250,000 (€241,000). 

The bullish Bitcoin cycle may continue

Bitcoin has historically reached fresh highs every 4 years during its past two bullish cycles since 2017. Each cycle saw gains of 2300% and 1700% before setbacks of between 70% and 80%.

Since its low of $16,000 (€15,500) two years ago, Bitcoin has surged approximately 600%, indicating substantial potential for further growth in the coming two years. 

Tom Lee from Fundstart Global Advisors predicts Bitcoin could reach $250, 000 in 2025. The Standard Chartered projects the price to hit $200,000 next year.

Cryptocurrencies generally tend to move in a bullish trend during the easing monetary cycles of central banks. Investors’ appetite for risky assets typically grows in environments of increased liquidation and expanding money supply.

With the world’s major central banks expected to continue cutting interest rates in 2025, prevailing risk-on sentiment is likely to support further gains for Bitcoin.

The US regulatory tailwind

Regulatory developments were the primary drivers of Bitcoin’s price surge in 2024. Its price saw a substantial rally, surpassing the critical resistance level of $52,000 (€50,200) in February.

It followed the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in January, ahead of the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving event in April.

Bitcoin traded between $52,000 and $72,000 (€69,600) until November, when Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election catalysed further gains.

Trump’s pledge to implement crypto-friendly policies, including his statement that he would make America the “crypto capital of the planet”, boosted investor sentiment.

Bitcoin topped the psychological threshold of $100,000 (€96,600) in early December after Trump announced plans to nominate Paul Atkins, a pro-crypto former SEC commissioner, as the next Chair of the SEC.

Analysts upbeat on Bitcoin prospects for 2025

“That performance is likely to continue in 2025, we will have a clearer regulatory environment and we are seeing institutional capital come to the table in a more significant manner than we’ve ever seen,” said Josh Gilbert, a markets analyst at eToro Australia. 

The Trump administration’s policies could continue providing regulatory tailwinds for cryptocurrencies in 2025. The US president reiterated its plan to adopt Bitcoin as part of the US strategic reserves in December. The investment firm Charles Schwab expects Bitcoin to reach $1 million if this happens. 

At a July conference, the president-elect said Bitcoin holding would create “a permanent national asset to benefit all Americans.” Senator Cynthia Lummis outlined the purchase of not more than 200,000 Bitcoin tokens annually over five years, or approximately 1% of the total supply.

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Based on its mining mechanism, Bitcoin has a maximum supply limit of 21 million tokens. Although the proposal did not clarify how it would pass the legal process, the US government could sell some of its gold reserves to raise the funds to buy Bitcoins, according to a Reuters report. 

Near-term retreat risks

Nonetheless, the long-term view may not alter the near-term correction risk. Bitcoin price has retreated sharply from an all-time high of above $108,000 (€104,300) in mid-December to the current $94,000 (€90,800) level.

This is likely driven by profit-taking and risk-off sentiment. This decline coincides with a pullback in global stock markets over the past two weeks.

Until the incoming Trump Administration implements clear pro-crypto policies, some investors may choose to lock in their 2024 gains.

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From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s immediate support level appears to be around $90,000 (€87,000). A breakdown below this level could see the cryptocurrency testing the next target of approximately $73,000 (€70,500).

Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong says most workers have seen wages outpace inflation.

Singapore’s economy grew 4 percent in 2024, comfortably beating forecasts, according to preliminary government figures.

Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 4.3 percent in the October-December period, Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry said on Thursday, lifting full-year growth to its strongest performance since 2011, excluding the post-COVID-19 pandemic rebound in 2021.

Officials in the Southeast Asian nation had in November forecast growth for the year at about 3.5 percent.

Manufacturing, a major driver of the city-state’s export-reliant economy, expanded 4.2 percent in the last quarter, while construction and services grew 5.9 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively.

In a New Year’s message, Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said most workers had seen their wages outpace inflation and could expect to see their incomes continue to rise.

“Unlike in many developed countries, we are not plagued by unemployment and stagnant wages,” Wong said.

Wong, however, acknowledged that Singapore’s economy was not immune from geopolitical tensions, such as the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.

“Across many countries, cost of living pressures continue to weigh heavily on families and communities. People feel a deep sense of angst and anxiety about the future,” he said.

Singapore’s Trade Ministry in November said it expected growth of between 1 and 3 percent in 2025.