In a couple of months, California voters will have the opportunity to reshape our state’s political map and, perhaps, tilt the balance of power nationally from red to blue.

Gov. Gavin Newsom, who gained recent national attention for his CAPS LOCK social media posturing, spearheaded a bold overhaul of California’s congressional map in response to Texas Republicans’ efforts to add five GOP seats to the House of Representatives.

The redistricting effort, presented at the ballot as Proposition 50, has been blasted by Republicans, but its ultimate fate will be decided by voters on Nov. 4

Times reporters and colleagues Hailey Wang, Vanessa Martínez and Sandhya Kambhampati dissected what the changes could mean.

Here’s some of their analysis.

Methodology behind the analysis

To get a sense of how the proposed maps might alter the balance of power in Congress, The Times used results from the 2024 presidential election to calculate the margin of victory between Democrats and Republicans in the redrawn districts.

In some cases, districts were split apart and stitched together with more liberal areas. In one area, lines have been redrawn with no overlap at all with their current boundary.

As a result, four formerly Republican-leaning swing districts would tilt slightly Democratic, and two others would shift more heavily toward the left. Four out of the five remaining Republican strongholds would become even darker red under the proposed map.

All told, the new maps could help Democrats earn six seats.

We’ll examine two Southern California districts from their list.

41st District: Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona)

Rep. Ken Calvert’s 41st District, long centered in the competitive western Inland Empire, would be eliminated and completely redrawn in Los Angeles County. The district would transform from a swinging GOP-leaning seat into one where Democrats would hold a 14-point advantage.

Parts of the new 41st would be carved out of the current 38th District, represented by Democrat Linda Sánchez. That change shifts some of Sánchez’s Democratic base into the new 41st district, making it more favorable to Democrats while leaving the 38th slightly less blue.

At the same time, the Latino share of the population would rise, further bolstering the Democrat‘s strength in the proposed district. The new 41st seat would become a majority-minority district. The redistricting proposal includes 16 majority-minority districts; the same number as the current map.

A section of the current 41st district would be added to Anaheim Hills’ Republican Young Kim’s 40th District. The reshaped 40th District would move 9.7 points to the right — the biggest rightward shift among Republican-held districts.

48th District: Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Bonsall)

In 2024, voters in the 48th District reelected Republican representative Darrel Issa by 19 points, while his district swung to Trump by 15 points.

But the proposed lines would shift Republican voters into a neighboring district in favor of bluer voters from the Coachella Valley, giving Democrats a new edge.

The district’s demographics would also change, with a larger share of Latino voters. As a result, a safe Republican seat would become a swing district, where Democrats would hold a narrow 3-point advantage.

The proposed 48th District includes Palm Springs, a liberal patch that was previously in the 41st District.

What the changes could mean

The analysis found the redistricting effort, which will go to voters on Nov. 4, could turn 41 Democratic-leaning congressional districts into 47.

Democrats currently hold 215 seats in the House, and Republicans have 220. The shift could be enough to threaten the GOP’s narrow majority.

For more on the analysis, check out the full article.

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