In addition, half of the West’s commitments on military gear don’t arrive in time, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov complained this weekend. 

In Paris, the leaders were expected to discuss ways to better coordinate their support and “counter the impression that things are falling apart,” according to an aide to the French president.

Despite the rising stakes and the sense the West is choking, no new announcement of weapons deliveries are expected, the aide added.

Macron’s international leaders’ conference may backfire, said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe for Eurasia Group. 

“If there is no concrete outcome, rather than demonstrate western resolve, [the conference] will show how fragile their unity really is and that the EU doesn’t really have a plan on how to support Ukraine,” he said.  

There will be disappointment, said Rahman, if there is no help on the battlefield, no answer to ammunition gap and no resolution to the “quasi-academic” debate over arms purchases, with France insisting on buying European, to boost the continent’s defense industries. 

The Czech Republic has identified 800,000 shells for sale from outside the EU, but wants other governments to help foot the bill. Countries including France, Greece and Cyprus have so far refused to pay with European money for ammunition coming from outside the bloc.

Ahead of the summit, however, an Elysée advisor gave some indication that France may be willing to show some flexibility, telling reporters the French president’s stance was not “dogmatic” even if it is important to incentivize the EU’s own stuttering defense industry.