Richard Tunnicliffe’s 3,713 votes saw Labour drop to third amid a 27% swing away from the party in one of its strongholds
In a matter of moments, more than 100 years of history came crashing down for Labour as the results were read out.
For Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle, his victory – at the 14th time of asking – must feel like it has been a long time coming.
This could be the sign that voters see his party as a viable alternative to Labour, with next May’s Welsh Parliament election on the horizon.
The Labour stronghold has been breached and Plaid has stormed it.
For Reform, who had such high expectations, there are lessons to be learned.
Despite surging across the UK, they fell short in this big test.
Their ambition to be the biggest party after next year’s Welsh Parliament election has taken a knock.
There will be questions about how effective the party is at getting their supporters out to vote, as the party had been banking on a high turnout being good for them.
The turnout was 50.43% – higher than any previous Senedd election.
For Labour, this was an awful result.
If their 11% vote share is mirrored across Wales next May, under the new proportional voting system, they could be facing a wipe out.
Mark Lewis/BBC
Rhun ap Iorwerth’s Plaid Cymru has breached Welsh Labour’s stronghold
Before the vote, one source told me about the concept of a good defeat – something the party could work off.
This was not it.
The party’s MSs meet this morning to start the difficult conversation of how to turn this round.
One Labour source has suggested to me that the party will need a “retail offer” – something stand-out – that will grab voters’ attention.
“People are desperate for material improvement to their lives,” the source said.
“We can talk about improvements and we can talk about legacy issues like free prescriptions but there needs to be a big sell on something new.”
The deputy first minister Huw Irranca-Davies said the party needed a “compelling story”.
Matthew Horwood
Llyr Powell was predicted to be a contender for victory in the by-election
Another source said that First Minister Eluned Morgan needs to try to differentiate herself even further from her UK colleagues.
She has tried this with her concept of the Red Welsh Way, but has also spoken of a partnership in power.
Welsh Labour and UK Labour working together has its benefits, but it was never going to be easy.
Voters in Caerphilly have not bought the idea that two Labour governments working together is better for Wales.
Next May, the entire Welsh electorate could deliver the same verdict.
For now, whatever happens, Caerphilly has written itself into the pages of Welsh political history.
We are about to find out if this result is an eye-opening anomaly or a genuinely new chapter.
Rhun ap Iorwerth made the pledge as he told conference delegates he was ready to lead the country
Families who have children aged nine months to four years old will get free childcare if Plaid Cymru wins the next Welsh Parliament election, its leader has said.
Rhun ap Iorwerth made the pledge as he told conference delegates he was ready to lead the country “right now”, replacing Labour as the party of government.
Labour has led Wales since the start of devolution in 1999, and has dominated Welsh politics for a century. The next Senedd election takes place in May.
He said the “transformative” policy, offering at least 20 hours for 48 weeks a year by 2031, would be a “helping hand with the things that matter the most”.
He told the conference that “Labour’s time is up” and that Reform wanted to treat the Senedd as a “plaything” to gain an “electoral foothold”.
Ap Iorwerth called on voters who wanted to stop Reform to back his party, accusing Nigel Farage of spurring a summer of “simmering hatred”.
Currently help with childcare costs is only available to families whose parents are in work, education or training, or to very young children who live in a Flying Start area.
The party says the policy would be worth £32,500 to families for the first four years of their child’s life.
Families whose parents are in work, training or education would still get 30 hours a week for three to four-year-olds.
Plaid’s plan would allow ineligible families to claim 20 hours a week for three to four-year-olds for 48 weeks of the year, and all families 20 hours for nine-month-olds to two years.
The party say that by the end of the five-year roll out it will spend roughly an extra £500m a year on childcare – bringing the total cost to £800m.
It says it can find the cash from the Welsh government’s budget, with about £400m thought to be available in the next budget if other services increase by inflation.
Matthew Horwood/Plaid Cymru
Rhun ap Iorwerth was met with a standing ovation as he closed his speech in Braygwyn Hall
The Welsh government has been under pressure to match the provision in England, where children between nine months and two years receive free child care.
The Bevan Foundation said earlier this year that high childcare costs were pushing more families into poverty and out of work.
Currently parents in Wales can apply for up to 30 hours of combined government funded nursery education and childcare a week – parents need to be in work, on maternity, paternity or other statutory leave, or in education or training.
That is only available to three and four-year-olds, and only if parents receive less than £100,000 a year combined.
Some eligible two-year-olds qualify for 12.5 hours of care a week under Flying Start, but it is not available nationally.
Plaid’s plan would be in three stages. It is proposing to keep the existing 30 hour offer for three to four-year-olds, while extending the roll out of 12.5 hours a week for two-year-olds.
The next step would be to give 20 hours to parents who are not currently eligible – such as those not in work or training, or those earning more than £100,000 a year.
The party would then seek to increase the number of hours offered to children under the age of two year-on-year.
It would be rolled out over the life of the next Welsh Parliament, with the policy fully implemented in the 2030/31 financial year, under the plans.
Getty Images
Plaid Cymru says the policy would be worth £32,500 to families for the first four years of their child’s life
Party sources, asked why parents whose incomes are above £100,000 should get free childcare, said services that are delivered universally are better, and that households across demographics are struggling.
Plaid says it would be the most generous childcare care offer in the UK.
Ap Iorwerth told BBC Wales: “This can make a huge difference. It’s a very, very important step in terms of helping families with the cost of living.
“This is universal, which marks it out from the system in England.”
Ap Iorwerth said it was “money that we know we can afford”.
‘Plaything’
Plaid Cymru has played a key role during the life of devolution, being an occasional supporter of Labour governments since 1999.
It has been unable to beat Labour in an election – but recent opinion polling has suggested Plaid is vying with the party to win, as is Reform.
Ap Iorwerth is now trying to position his party as a government-in-waiting.
Even if Plaid came first it is possible they would have to work with Labour or other parties in some form, with no party having ever won a majority in the Senedd.
Ap Iorwerth said Labour had “forgot where it came from who it was there to serve”.
He called on his party to seize the “historic opportunity ahead of us” and turn it into “reality”.
He said the UK had faced a summer of “simmering hatred”, spurred on, he said, by Nigel Farage.
“Farage and his followers drive the deliberate fragmentation of society, giving life to the bogeyman without whom they are nothing.”
He said Reform UK wanted to treat the Senedd as a “plaything” to gain “an electoral foothold”.
‘New leadership’
Ap Iorwerth said Plaid was ready to govern “right now”, promising to “usher in an age of new leadership that will set Wales on a different path.”
“We are not here as Labour’s conscious, we are not here to repair Labour, we are here to replace them,” he said.
He promised an “immediate cash injection” into the NHS to prioritise the longest waits.
The party leader, a former BBC Wales journalist and the Member of the Senedd (MS) for Ynys Mon, said Reform threatened the health service with “US-style bills”, and vowed to keep the NHS free at point of need.
Getty Images
Mark Lewis/BBC
Matthew Horwood
