pitched

Germany is offering for Canada to join its Type 212CD submarine program, alongside Norway, as part of a broader defense cooperation that would more closely align Berlin and Ottawa. Canada badly needs a replacement for its aging and troublesome Victoria class diesel-electric submarines, and, in turn, Germany is looking to procure potentially significant numbers of special-mission aircraft from Canada’s Bombardier, among other defense systems.

The German Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius, and his Norwegian counterpart, Tore Sandvik, were in Ottawa this week, where they presented the Type 212CD to the Minister of National Defense of Canada, David McGuinty, for the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP).

Canada’s requirement is for up to 12 new submarines to replace the four Victoria class boats. The new submarines should offer significant new capabilities, including operating for extended periods under ice, an important factor to bear in mind given the growing military importance of the Arctic region.

The German-Norwegian offer is for the Type 212CD (Common Design), which is a further improved version of the Type 212A, which you can read about in more detail here. The Type 212CD features an improved air-independent propulsion (AIP) system including new-generation batteries (most likely of the Lithium-Ion type), improved diesel generators, increased speed and range, improved self-defense capabilities, and improved signatures and target echo strength thanks to a specially designed hull shape.

Germany has ordered six Type 212CD hulls, with the first of these set to enter service in 2031 and ultimately plans to field as many as nine. Meanwhile, Norway has ordered four, with at least another two planned. Oslo expects to commission the first of these boats in 2029.

The manufacturer of the Type 212CD, TKMS, says it will be able to build around three to four boats per year from 2027.

The Canadian government wants to see the delivery of the first new submarine no later than 2035.

The Victoria class submarines currently in use with the Royal Canadian Navy were purchased secondhand from the United Kingdom in 1998, having previously served with the Royal Navy as the Upholder class, and have been anything but trouble-free since their transfer. The first three Victoria class submarines entered service with the Royal Canadian Navy between 2000 and 2003. The fourth submarine caught fire while in transit to Canada in 2004, which meant it wasn’t accepted into Royal Canadian Navy service until 2015.

In an effort to boost the Type 212CD’s chances in Canada, Germany is offering Ottawa the opportunity to manufacture components, or even undertake construction of complete submarines, in local shipyards.

While in Canada, Pistorius outlined the possibility of a long-term submarine cooperation between the three countries, which could extend for 40 to 50 years. This would see them jointly build and maintain the submarines, as well as providing logistics and working on projects to develop the boats further. Pistorius also raised the possibility of crew exchanges and even joint operations in the Indo-Pacific region. Having Canada join the initiative would also bring down the unit cost of each submarine as the overall production increases significantly.

In turn, the German minister of defense raised the possibility of Berlin buying Canadian defense systems, as part of planned offsets on a submarine deal.

Items mentioned include a new combat management system (CMS) for the German Navy. This would likely be the CMS 330 from Lockheed Martin Canada, which was originally developed for the Royal Canadian Navy.

More intriguingly, Pistorius said that the German Armed Forces are likely to buy at least 18 Bombardier Global bizjets in the coming years. These would be for special missions tasks and likely also VIP transport, although the large number of jets remains somewhat puzzling. The German minister of defense also suggested that more bizjets could be acquired from Bombardier if Germany chooses to buy the GlobalEye airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft from Saab. This is installed on a Global 6000/6500 platform. Saab has also actively pitched the GlobalEye to Canada.

Other military areas in which the German government might ‘buy Canadian’ include space systems, as part of a growing investment on behalf of the German Ministry of Defense.

On a non-military level, Pistorius also said that Germany is seeking to enhance its cooperation with Canada on raw materials, hydro energy, and liquefied natural gas. This is all the more important now that Canada-U.S. relations are at an unprecedented low.

Earlier this month, U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and Canada have “natural conflict” on trade. This is all part of the fallout from events this summer, when Trump increased tariffs on many Canadian goods to 35 percent, with Canada then retaliating with its own tariffs on U.S. exports.

Meanwhile, as part of the submarine proposal, Norway’s Sandvik also pitched offsets to Canada, including buying its AI solutions. The Norwegian minister of defense also offered to help Canada establish a submarine maintenance center, the same as that now under construction in Bergen, Norway.

In August of this year, the Canadian submarine competition was whittled down to the Type 212CD and the South Korean KSS-III, from the Hanwha Group. Seoul is also offering offsets to Canada, as well as promising fast delivery of the submarines.

“The Koreans build excellent submarines, but we build better ones,” Pistorius said, noting that the Type 212CD project is on schedule and within budget.

South Korea is an increasingly major player on the global arms market, and its defense industry is winning ever more high-profile orders, notably to NATO nations.

On the other hand, with Germany and Norway comes the opportunity for cooperation on a military level as well as on an industrial level.

Already, it’s expected that Germany and Norway will work closely together as they introduced their Type 212CD submarines. This is especially relevant now that Germany is looking to expand its area of naval operations from its traditional stronghold in the Baltic Sea and out into the Atlantic.

This will include protecting the North Atlantic against potential Russian aggression and tracking Russian submarine activity there, which has been a growing area of concern for some time now. This marks a significant turnaround since the early post-Cold War years, when Russian submarine activity dipped and the overall strategic importance of the North Atlantic region seemed to have decreased.

Reflecting the changing reality, in 2024, Canada signed a trilateral letter of intent with Germany and Norway to establish a strategic partnership in support of NATO’s deterrence and defense in the North Atlantic region, specifically.

However, when the letter of intent was announced, Ottawa underscored the fact that it does not include any discussion of submarines. “The emphasis of this agreement is on defense industry, supply chains, training, and operations. It complements other initiatives that Canada is exploring with Germany and European allies,” the Canadian government said.

It is worth noting the parallels between the trilateral letter of intent and the Australia–United Kingdom–United States defense cooperation agreement, or AUKUS, which was first announced in 2021. While this covers a variety of areas of collaboration, the attention it has received has focused primarily on the matter of nuclear-powered submarines for the Royal Australian Navy.

Meanwhile, other NATO nations are now more closely aligning their anti-submarine warfare activities in the North Atlantic region. For example, the United Kingdom and Norway have discussed plans to cooperate on P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft operations, and, more recently, the United Kingdom and Germany have signed a related agreement related to their P-8s. Canada has also selected the P-8, providing yet another opportunity for close maritime cooperation with Germany and Norway.

A submarine partnership between Canada, Germany, and Norway would further enhance NATO’s ability to effectively patrol the North Atlantic, including the strategically vital Greenland, Iceland, United Kingdom Gap, better known as the GIUK Gap. This is a critical bottleneck that is closely monitored. If Russian submarines can sneak through undetected, they have a much higher chance of disappearing into the Atlantic without being traced. During a full-blown conflict, this would likely include wreaking havoc on NATO shipping and naval flotillas and executing pinpoint attacks on key land targets.

As well as hostile submarines, NATO also faces a growing threat from other kinds of underwater activities, specifically attacks on critical undersea infrastructure. The vulnerability of undersea cables and offshore wind farms, for example, to potential Russian attack is very much on NATO’s mind, after a series of incidents, especially in the Baltic.

At the same time, NATO is increasingly looking toward the Arctic as an area of future competition with both Russia and China. This is especially relevant for Canada and Norway and the option to operate common submarines, and share something of the logistics burden, as well as optimize operations in this challenging environment, which could do much to help strengthen NATO’s presence in the High North. At the very least, operating the same submarines would provide more opportunities to align training and exercises. At the same time, Germany is now looking to expand its naval presence in the waters around the Arctic Circle, including expanding its footprint in Iceland.

Whether Canada chooses the Type 212CD or the rival KSS-III, the competition is about more than just providing an economic boost to the winning company. Canada’s future submarine fleet also looks set to play an important role in detecting a resurgent Russian submarine force, protecting undersea infrastructure, and patrolling an increasingly strategic Arctic region, among others.

Contact the author: [email protected]