jessie buckley

With so much uncertainty in the earliest round, consensus No. 1 picks are rare, but that’s just what Jessie Buckley of “Hamnet” is — one of only two in the entire BuzzMeter poll. She has double the points of runner-up Renate Reinsve, who is just one tally ahead of Emma Stone.

Saying it feels “inevitable” that Buckley will one day win, Robert Daniels calls her work in “Hamnet” “a gut-wrenching performance … Jessie Buckley’s fearless turn echoes with the force of a primal scream.”

Among the other contenders, Glenn Whipp asks of the upcoming “Wicked: For Good,” “Will voters be into it or over it? That’s a coin flip. More certain: Cynthia Erivo will rip out our hearts in the sequel.” Dave Karger wonders if one star has the makeup to land in the top five: “‘Christy’ star Sydney Sweeney will try to ride her strong Toronto buzz to a first nomination.”

Meanwhile, Katie Walsh highlights one of the perils of long-range predictions — occasional category uncertainty: “Should Emily Blunt go lead for ‘The Smashing Machine,’ or supporting?” Blunt’s roller-coaster performance as a champion wrestler’s love — and perhaps his most dangerous opponent — is hard to pin down.

As for Seyfried, at press time “The Testament of Ann Lee” doesn’t yet have a distributor. But perhaps the lead’s strong showing on the BuzzMeter will be an inducement to change that.

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
3. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
4. Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”
5. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”
6. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
7. Tessa Thompson, “Hedda”
8. Jennifer Lawrence, “Die, My Love”

RogerEbert.com

Robert Daniels

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”
3. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
4. Julia Roberts, “After the Hunt”
5. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”

“With a gut-wrenching performance as Agnes Shakespeare, Jessie Buckley’s fearless turn echoes with the force of a primal scream. It feels inevitable that the previous nominee will win an Oscar at some point. It’s just a matter of time.”

Turner Classic Movies

Dave Karger

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
3. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
4. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”
5. Sydney Sweeney, “Christy”

“International actresses headline this race, with ‘Hamnet’s’ Jessie Buckley and ‘Sentimental Value’s’ Renate Reinsve earning festival raves for their wonderful performances. Two-time winner Emma Stone and two-time acting nominee Cynthia Erivo are also likely to return, while ‘Christy’ star Sydney Sweeney will try to ride her strong Toronto buzz to a first nomination.”

Los Angeles Times

Amy Nicholson

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Tessa Thompson, “Hedda”
3. Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”
4. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
5. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”

“A Jessie Buckley win here as Shakespeare’s wild, witchy wife makes perfect sense. The Irish talent comes to the campaign with a supporting nom for ‘The Lost Daughter’ already under her sash and heaps of critical goodwill dating to 2018’s ‘Wild Rose.’ But I wouldn’t mind a Tessa Thompson upset.”

IndieWire

Anne Thompson

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
3. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
4. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
5. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”

“The win could go to Jessie Buckley for her heart-wrenching mother in ‘Hamnet.’ Her challengers are another troubled mother, Rose Byrne in ‘If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,’ warbler Cynthia Erivo in ‘Wicked for Good,’ ‘Bugonia’ star Emma Stone, who has already won twice, and Renate Reinsve as a great actress in Norwegian Oscar submission ‘Sentimental Value.’ ”

Tribune News Service

Katie Walsh

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
3. Jennifer Lawrence, “Die, My Love”
4. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
5. Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”

“I haven’t seen ‘Hamnet,’ but I’m hearing best actress is Jessie Buckley’s to lose. The TIFF People’s Choice Award gives it a boost too. Should Emily Blunt go lead for ‘The Smashing Machine,’ or supporting?”

Los Angeles Times

Glenn Whipp

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
3. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”
4. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
5. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”

“Get ready for the sequel Oscar campaign for Cynthia Erivo and ‘Wicked’ as the second installment of the musical adaptation lands in November. Will voters be into it or over it? That’s a coin flip. More certain: Erivo will rip out our hearts in the sequel.”

Journalist Seymour Hersh in 1975, as seen in the documentary “Cover-Up.”

(The New York Times)

When real-life political anxieties (or worse) infuse the atmosphere of a film festival, it’s hard to pretend that celebrating art is ever enough. “Cover-Up” was, for me, the antidote: a furious, hard-nosed profile of legendary investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, the man who broke the My Lai massacre in 1969, then went on to an impressive run of stories that included revelations about Watergate, the CIA and Abu Ghraib. Oscar-winning documentarian Laura Poitras (“Citizenfour”), co-directing with Mark Obenhaus, mainly tries to stay out of the way of Hersh’s ferocious forward momentum, capturing the writer’s method with a minimum of wasted words. “I’ve got every right to be here, buddy,” Hersh bats back to a displeased listener and you thrill to an era when breaking the news wasn’t chilled by caution. — Joshua Rothkopf

Jesse Plemons in the movie “Bugonia.”

(Atsushi Nishijima / Focus Features)

Jesse Plemons is never one to chew scenery. Even when handed a role that edges on madness, he doesn’t go big. Instead, he goes deep, building tension quietly from the inside out. And in Yorgos Lanthimos’ uncategorizable, darkly comic sci-fi thriller, Plemons — reuniting with the director after playing three characters in last year’s “Kinds of Kindness” — delivers one of his most riveting performances yet. As Teddy, a rumpled, reclusive beekeeper convinced that a pharma CEO (Emma Stone) is an alien from the planet Andromeda, Plemons channels paranoia, grief and righteousness into something both absurd and unnervingly sincere. The “I do my own research” archetype could easily veer into “SNL” sketch territory but he plays it heartbreakingly straight, creating a chillingly familiar portrait of a man lost in an algorithmic maze of internet rabbit holes and desperate for clarity in a world that no longer makes sense. Teddy enlists his younger cousin Don (Aidan Delbis, an autistic first-time actor in a mesmerizing turn) to help him abduct Stone’s steely executive, drawing him into the mission in a misguided effort to protect him. Even as things spiral into chaos, Plemons (a 2022 supporting actor Oscar nominee for Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog”) roots the performance in a warped but recognizably human emotional logic. The result captures the anxious, conspiratorial spirit of 2025 with eerie precision, proving once again that Plemons doesn’t need to raise his voice to deliver a performance that speaks volumes. — Josh Rottenberg