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NATO member Lithuania today authorized the shooting down of balloons that cross the border from Russia’s ally Belarus, after as many as 66 balloons were spotted by Lithuanian radar overnight. The Lithuanian government has described the balloon incursion as a “hybrid attack” and has closed its border with Belarus — temporarily, for now. The balloon incident is the latest airspace incursion on NATO’s eastern flank, as tensions between the alliance and Russia grow against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine.

Lithuania has also said it is considering calling for talks under NATO’s Article 4, which discusses a response when “the territorial integrity, political independence, or security of any of the parties is threatened.”

Some of the helium balloons involved were assessed by Lithuanian authorities to weigh between 110 and 130 pounds, making them a significant threat to aircraft operating in Lithuanian airspace. Initially, it was reported that at least some of them were being used to smuggle goods — primarily cigarettes — across the border. These would typically be recovered once landed, using location tags to find them.

While the cigarette cargoes may well be true, it doesn’t rule out the possibility that the balloons were sent as a deliberate provocation, with, at the very least, Moscow’s approval. It may also be the case that Belarus is simply turning a blind eye to the contraband balloons, knowing they will drift into the airspace of its NATO neighbor.

It should be noted that balloons of different types are widely used in the war in Ukraine. Russia employs balloons extensively as decoys to stimulate, distract and gain intelligence on Ukrainian air defenses. This mission is a long-established one for balloons and Russia has looked to weaponized balloons throughout the Cold War. Ukraine, meanwhile, has developed balloons to help locate drone operators, as you can read about here.

Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė pledged to shoot down any further balloons disrupting the Lithuanian airspace.

This would likely involve Lithuania’s Air Defense Battalion, which is equipped with the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS), the shorter-range RBS 70 and Avenger systems, as well as various man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS). The stocks of some of these systems have been depleted by transfers of equipment to Ukraine after the full-scale invasion.

Lithuania does not operate fighter jets, but is protected by NATO’s Baltic Air Policing detachments, with Hungarian Air Force Gripens and Spanish Air Force Typhoons currently stationed at Šiauliai, in Lithuania. Ground-based air defense systems from other NATO members are similarly deployed to Lithuania on a rotational basis, too.

However, as we have discussed in detail in relation to balloons in U.S. airspace in 2023, even when these are very large targets, they are by no means easy to bring them down.

Lithuania has also now closed its roughly 400-mile eastern border with Belarus in what is currently described as a temporary move enacted by the country’s border force. The government is meanwhile discussing whether the border closure will be extended indefinitely, something that is expected to be approved during a government meeting planned for Wednesday. Belarus has described the temporary border closure as “a provocation.”

“No hybrid attack will be tolerated,” said Prime Minister Ruginienė at a press conference today. “We will take the strictest possible measures to stop such actions.”

Deividas Matulionis, a senior advisor to the Lithuanian president, said the balloon incursions were part of a “hybrid psychological operation” seeking to disrupt the everyday life of Lithuanians. “We very much hope that immediate action will be taken, but there should also be very strong diplomatic action and certain legal measures, which should be approved … as soon as possible,” he said.

Without mentioning Russia directly, Ruginienė and Matulionis were pointing to the growing threat posed to NATO and the European Union by a variety of unorthodox types of warfare, ranging from sabotage of critical infrastructure to manipulation of the information space in an effort to undermine Western democracies. In such incidents, Russia has always denied any responsibility, but Western suspicions generally center around potential Kremlin motives, especially after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Ruginienė explained that, if the border is closed indefinitely, there will be only very limited exceptions for Lithuanian and EU citizens, as well as diplomatic mail. “All other movement will be halted,” she confirmed.

The incursions overnight were the latest in a string of similar disruptions over the course of last week. Vilnius Airport, Lithuania’s biggest hub, was closed on four separate occasions. In total, more than 170 flights were disrupted by cancellations, diversions, and delays over the course of the week, the airport operator said.

Last Thursday, Lithuania summoned a Russian diplomat to protest what it says was the entry of two Russian military aircraft into its airspace.

The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense said a Russian Su-30 Flanker fighter and an Il-78 Midas tanker flying from Kaliningrad passed through Lithuanian airspace for around 2,300 feet before leaving after 18 seconds, probably during aerial refueling training.

Russia’s defense ministry denied the incursion had taken place. “The flights were conducted in strict compliance with the rules for using airspace above Russian territory. The aircraft … did not violate the borders of other states,” it said.

As to what comes next, Lithuania has said it is not ruling out Article 4 talks over the balloons. The procedure has only been used nine times in the alliance’s history. Most recently, it was triggered by Poland and Estonia after Russian airspace violations in September.

“Our response will determine how far autocrats dare to go,” Ruginienė said.

There have also been suggestions that Lithuania might extend the border closure to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, to the west, or at least restrict transit across the frontier.

The incursions in Lithuanian airspace follow an incident last month, during which three Russian MiG-31 Foxhound interceptors spent 12 minutes in Estonian airspace, as you can read about here.