Plaid Cymru eyes Senedd success after historic Caerphilly by-election
Gareth LewisWales political editor
Getty ImagesIn a matter of moments, more than 100 years of history came crashing down for Labour as the results were read out.
For Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle, his victory – at the 14th time of asking – must feel like it has been a long time coming.
This could be the sign that voters see his party as a viable alternative to Labour, with next May’s Welsh Parliament election on the horizon.
The Labour stronghold has been breached and Plaid has stormed it.
For Reform, who had such high expectations, there are lessons to be learned.
Despite surging across the UK, they fell short in this big test.
Their ambition to be the biggest party after next year’s Welsh Parliament election has taken a knock.
There will be questions about how effective the party is at getting their supporters out to vote, as the party had been banking on a high turnout being good for them.
The turnout was 50.43% – higher than any previous Senedd election.
For Labour, this was an awful result.
If their 11% vote share is mirrored across Wales next May, under the new proportional voting system, they could be facing a wipe out.
Mark Lewis/BBCBefore the vote, one source told me about the concept of a good defeat – something the party could work off.
This was not it.
The party’s MSs meet this morning to start the difficult conversation of how to turn this round.
One Labour source has suggested to me that the party will need a “retail offer” – something stand-out – that will grab voters’ attention.
“People are desperate for material improvement to their lives,” the source said.
“We can talk about improvements and we can talk about legacy issues like free prescriptions but there needs to be a big sell on something new.”
The deputy first minister Huw Irranca-Davies said the party needed a “compelling story”.
Matthew HorwoodAnother source said that First Minister Eluned Morgan needs to try to differentiate herself even further from her UK colleagues.
She has tried this with her concept of the Red Welsh Way, but has also spoken of a partnership in power.
Welsh Labour and UK Labour working together has its benefits, but it was never going to be easy.
Voters in Caerphilly have not bought the idea that two Labour governments working together is better for Wales.
Next May, the entire Welsh electorate could deliver the same verdict.
For now, whatever happens, Caerphilly has written itself into the pages of Welsh political history.
We are about to find out if this result is an eye-opening anomaly or a genuinely new chapter.
