NEWS

The United Kingdom has outlawed Palestine Action – an organisation that disrupts the arms industry in the UK with direct action in the form of strikes and protests – grouping it with ISIL (ISIS) and al-Qaeda. Supporters of the group now risk up to 14 years in prison, and arrests of protesters opposed to the listing have already begun.

What does the decision reveal about the UK’s approach to protest and civil disobedience, and how might it reshape the wider Palestine solidarity movement?

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‘Nobody helped’

‘Taken by surprise’

The 12-day war between Israel and Iran ended with a fragile ceasefire. A review of the war’s economic toll suggests that a prolonged conflict would have been economically unsustainable for both sides. For Iran, this was anticipated given the country’s decades-long exposure to sanctions, but for Israel, the war marked a test of its economic strength and resilience and exposed deeper vulnerabilities. As recently as last year, the Israeli Finance Minister had stated with striking confidence that ‘the Israeli economy is strong by all measures, capable of sustaining all war efforts, on the front line and home front, until, with God’s help, victory is achieved.’  

Israel’s direct military costs averaged USD 725 million per day – more than eight times its estimated daily defence expenditure, considering the annual allocation of approximately USD 33 billion (NIS 109.8 billion) for the Ministry of Defence in the 2025 state budget. Airstrikes on Iranian targets cost around USD 590 million in the first two days alone, while interceptions are estimated to have cost at least USD 200 million daily. Even at this tremendous cost, missile defence operations could not prevent Tehran’s retaliatory strikes following the attacks on military and civilian infrastructure across the country from causing direct damage to Israel exceeding USD 1.5 billion, including to key financial and economic centres of activity. 

The nerve centre of Israel’s financial market – the Tel Aviv stock exchange building – was directly hit. While stocks quickly erased early losses during the war, leading the Israeli Finance Minister to hail it as ‘proof of Israel’s economic resilience–even under fire,’ attacks on Research and Development (R&D) centres, considered the most dynamic part of Israel’s economic core, that is the high-tech sector, represented a loss of decades of research, development, trial and error, and investment. Particularly consequential was the strike on the Weizmann Institute, known for its links to military projects and targeted in retaliation for the assassination of several Iranian nuclear scientists, which led to the destruction of 45 laboratories. One of the labs struck, for instance, had material from 22 years’ worth of research. Any future war could push the boundaries further, with even more vital sites likely to be targeted. 

Israel’s economic growth this year is projected to decline by at least 0.2 per cent, with the government’s budget deficit likely to reach 6 per cent of GDP, surpassing the 4.9 per cent cap set by the Finance Ministry. Last month, an Israeli official had hinted at the possibility of Tel Aviv seeking additional financial support from the United States to offset the war’s costs and address urgent defence needs. 

READ: Germany’s Merz says he has ‘no doubt’ about legality of Israel’s attacks on Iran

A 12-day war causing such significant economic consequences reveals how brittle and vulnerable the Israeli economy is. 

For Iran, the financial cost has been equally significant. The missiles alone cost Iran around USD 800 million, more than its estimated 12-day defence budget, based on the USD 23.1 billion annual allocation for March 2025-26. Tehran has now reportedly planned to triple its budget in 2025, reflecting the need to replenish resources. 

Iran’s economic core – the oil and gas sector – was also severely impacted. The drop in oil exports during the war reportedly cost Iran USD 1.4 billion in lost revenue. Some of Iran’s vital oil and gas facilities, including the major South Pars gas field, were directly hit. Unlike Israel, Iran’s defence systems were not as advanced, making it less capable of preventing strikes on vital sectors of the economy. However, analysts opine that Iran demonstrated more resilience than initially thought by avoiding a total collapse, and reportedly, maintained some of its oil exports during the war through a ‘shadow fleet’ of tankers. 

The primary lesson that emerges from this is not one of ‘strengthening resilience’ to mitigate the economic consequences of future wars, but that there are limits to technological and economic strength in the face of war. In fact, states with advanced economies and sophisticated defence systems, such as Israel, can overestimate their capacity to absorb and manage the consequences of war, thereby lowering their threshold for initiating a conflict. Even if enough resilience is built that vital infrastructure and sectors remain immune during a war, military expenditures can reach levels so high that their opportunity costs (the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen) can last for decades. 

It now falls upon Israeli and Jewish voices to ask the hard questions boldly and without fear. At what cost does Israel pursue its military adventurism? How long will taxpayers’ money be poured into the bloodshed of innocent civilians? The same questions ought to be raised by the American voices, given the United States’ direct support to and complicity in Israel’s military campaigns. The actions of political leaders arguably become unsustainable once the domestic population (in large numbers) begins to understand and categorically question the price of wars that their governments fight in their name and take pride in. 

BLOG: The UK refused to support plans to overthrow Khomeini’s revolutionary rule, one year after the outbreak of the Iraq-Iran war

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

United States President Donald Trump has threatened Brazil with a 50 percent tariff, citing the criminal charges against its former president and his political ally Jair Bolsonaro, who is accused of plotting a coup.

In a letter to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s current president, Trump said on Wednesday that the treatment of Bolsonaro, who refused to publicly concede the presidential election that he lost to Lula in 2022, “is an international disgrace”.

The letter was one of 22 tariff notices Trump sent this week to various countries. On Monday, the president extended a pause on his sweeping global tariffs from Wednesday to August 1.

For the most part, Trump says he is trying to rebalance large trading deficits, whereby the US imports more from a country than it exports there.

But the US has a trade surplus with Brazil, and the tariff threatened against South America’s largest economy was higher than those received by other countries, which have mostly fallen in the range of 25 to 40 percent.

The escalation in tensions between the US and Brazil came as Lula hosted representatives from China, Russia, Iran and other nations for a BRICS summit of emerging economies in Rio de Janeiro this week.

Leaders attending the summit criticised Trump’s tariffs and the recent US and Israeli bombing of Iran, drawing threats from Trump of a 10 percent additional tariff for “anti-American” BRICS-aligned countries.

What has Trump announced in relation to Brazil?

Trump has continued to publish letters informing US trading partners of tariffs planned to begin on August 1 if they can’t reach trade deals with his government before that. So far, he has sent 22 letters to heads of state. More could still come.

While the letters have mostly denounced trade between those countries and the US as “far from reciprocal”, Trump’s letter to Lula was stronger.

He wrote that “due in part to Brazil’s insidious attacks on Free Elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans”, he planned to levy a 50 percent tax on Brazilian goods exported to the US.

“Please understand that the 50 percent number is far less than what is needed to have the Level Playing Field we must have with your Country,” Trump added. “And it is necessary to have this to rectify the grave injustices of the current regime.”

He said: “The way that Brazil has treated former President Bolsonaro, a Highly Respected Leader throughout the World during his term, including by the United States, is an international disgrace.”

How has Brazil responded?

Lula promised to hit back with tariffs of his own if Trump follows through with his threat.

“Brazil is a sovereign nation with independent institutions and will not accept any form of tutelage,” Lula said in a post on X.

He added that the criminal case against Bolsonaro, who challenged the outcome of Brazil’s 2022 election, is a matter solely for the justice system and “not subject to interference or threat”.

Why is Trump targeting Brazil when the US has a trade surplus?

According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the US imported $42.3bn of goods from Brazil in 2024 and exported $49.7bn.

In short, Brazil’s purchases from the US amounted to roughly $7.4bn more than US purchases from Brazil.

Ever since the announcement of his “Liberation Day” tariffs, on April 2, Trump has consistently stated his desire to reduce America’s trade deficits with its trading partners.

In Trump’s view, deficit countries, such as the US, import goods that could have been produced at home, harming domestic employment and economic growth in the process.

However, “Brazil has historically run a small trade deficit with the US”, said Elizabeth Johnson, an economic analyst at TS Lombard, a strategy and political research firm. “It is very much political. … It is part of the Bolsonaro family’s effort to get Trump to weigh in on the ongoing trial of Jair Bolsonaro.”

Indeed, this is not the first time Trump has used the threat of tariffs to try to alter other countries’ domestic policy decisions.

Since returning to office in January, he has threatened a 25 percent tariff on Colombian goods and said he would double that if the country refused to accept deportees from the US. Colombia ultimately accepted his terms.

What trade does the US do with Brazil?

In 2023, the balance of trade (imports plus exports) between the US and Brazil amounted to $104bn, making Brazil the US’s 15th largest trading partner.

Top US exports to Brazil last year included aircraft and spacecraft (amounting to about $7bn), fossil fuels ($9bn) and industrial machinery such as nuclear reactors and electrical equipment (roughly $10bn), according to US Census Bureau data.

Brazil’s exports to the US in 2023 were led by crude oil and fossil fuels (about $8.8bn), iron and steel products ($5bn) and soya beans ($3.3bn).

What impact could a 50 percent tariff have on Brazil’s economy?

It could severely hurt companies highly exposed to the US market. In particular, firms in the base metals and agricultural sectors could be badly hit.

According to Johnson, Trump’s tariff threat could be a drag on economic growth because the US is Brazil’s second largest export market after China.

Indeed, Goldman Sachs has calculated that Brazil’s exports to the US represent 2 percent of its gross domestic product and Trump’s tariffs could cut its economic growth by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points.

What impact could this have on the US economy?

If the tariffs are implemented, US firms that buy Brazilian goods would most likely have to find alternative sources for those products, and this could take time.

In the meantime, “the semifinished steel products from Brazil used in American manufacturing mean [that higher tariffs would be] a negative,” Johnson told Al Jazeera.

In addition, “beef, orange juice, coffee” and other farm products travelling from Brazil into the US would become much more expensive, she said.

On the other hand, Johnson suggested, “There’s room for Trump to score a win with Brazil by allowing more ethanol exports into the US, which would help [American] farmers.”

What charges is Bolsonaro facing in Brazil?

Bolsonaro, who was president of Brazil from 2019 to 2023, refused to concede his presidential election loss to his left-wing rival in 2022.

Bolsonaro raised questions about the accuracy of the election result, claiming that some electronic voting machines had been faulty.

Shortly after Lula took office in January 2023, thousands of Bolsonaro’s supporters angered over the election result stormed the presidential palace, Congress and the Supreme Court in the capital, Brasilia.

Now, Bolsonaro is facing criminal charges for allegedly plotting a coup and for alleged actions he took to overturn the 2022 election result.

Bolsonaro and 33 other people were charged this year, and the ex-president’s case is being heard by the Supreme Court. He could face 40 years in prison if found guilty.

Bolsonaro has denied any wrongdoing and has framed the trial as a politically motivated attack.

Trump, who also falsely claimed he had beaten Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, had faced criminal charges related to seeking to overturn that election. His supporters also stormed the US Capitol before Biden took office, seeking to stop the certification of the election results.

Trump has highlighted what he regards as parallels between himself and Bolsonaro. On Monday, he wrote on social media that he empathised with what was happening to Bolsonaro: “It happened to me, times 10.”

Which other countries were notified of new tariffs?

Other than Brazil, recipients of tariff letters on Wednesday included the Philippines, Moldova, Sri Lanka, Brunei, Libya, Algeria and Iraq. They were notified of tariffs as high as 30 percent.

The rates Trump said would be imposed on Sri Lanka, Moldova, Iraq and Libya were lower than those he initially announced in early April.

Tariffs on goods from the Philippines and Brunei were higher. The rate for goods from Algeria remained the same.

Trump has said companies that move production to the US will be exempt from tariffs. But he also warned that if countries retaliate, they could face even higher US duties.

The US and its largest trading partners have been negotiating trade deals since Trump announced the tariffs. But so far, only Vietnam and the United Kingdom have reached new deals while a partial agreement has been reached with China.

More recently, Trump administration officials have indicated that deals with India and the European Union may be imminent.

Rubio and Lavrov ‘confirmed their mutual desire to find peaceful solutions to conflicts’, Russian Foreign Ministry says.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio have held rare face-to-face talks on the sidelines of an ASEAN meeting in Malaysia, discussing the war in Ukraine, as well as developments in Iran and Syria.

“A substantive and frank exchange of views took place on the settlement of the situation around Ukraine, the situation around Iran and Syria, as well as a number of other international issues,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement following the meeting on Thursday in Kuala Lumpur.

Both sides reportedly expressed interest in easing tensions and resuming dialogue in areas beyond the battlefield.

Lavrov and Rubio “confirmed their mutual desire to find peaceful solutions to conflicts, restore Russian-American economic and humanitarian cooperation, and facilitate unimpeded contacts between the societies of the two countries”, the ministry added.

The Russian side described the meeting as constructive, saying dialogue between Moscow and Washington would continue.

Rubio, speaking to reporters after the 50-minute meeting, said he had delivered a clear message about the need for progress on the war in Ukraine.

“I had a frank and important conversation with Minister Lavrov,” Rubio said. “We need to see a roadmap moving forward about how this conflict can conclude.”

He said US President Donald Trump remained disappointed with what Washington, DC views as a lack of flexibility from Moscow.

Trump has been growing increasingly frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying the Russian leader was throwing a lot of “b*******” at US efforts to end the war that started with Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Rubio also signalled that a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi may take place during the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gathering. “I think we’re working on that – maybe, maybe we’ll meet,” he said at a press conference.

The meeting between the top Russian and US diplomats comes at a time of heightened global polarisation, with ASEAN serving as one of the few venues where dialogue among rival powers still takes place.

Doctors in Gaza have been forced to operate in darkness as hospitals face a power crisis due to Israel’s war on the enclave. Two of Gaza’s largest hospitals have issued desperate pleas for help, warning without power the medical centres will be turned into ‘graveyards’.

PA Media

Tory welfare proposals

Since late 2019, families fleeing relentless violence in eastern Sokoto in Nigeria’s northwestern region have poured into the Guidan Roumdji Department of the Republic of Niger, carrying little more than the trauma of survival. Sabon Birni, a once-thriving community built on agriculture and livestock trading, has now become synonymous with terrorist raids, extortions, displacement, and despair.

“On the fateful day of May 27, 2020, our community came under brutal attack by armed groups,” recalled Malam Sani Manomi, a refugee from the community. “Many were killed, and the rest of us fled to neighbouring communities of Guidan Roumdji, Niger Republic.”

Sabon Birni Local Government Area (LGA), bordered to the north by the Republic of Niger and flanked by Isa LGA to the east, has devolved into a conflict hotspot. Once known for its Gobirawa heritage and cross-border kinship with Nigerien communities, the area is now fractured by fear. Armed groups and terrorists, operating with impunity, have rendered nine of the LGAs’ ten wards inaccessible.

Just across the border, Guidan Roumdji, an arrondissement in Niger’s Maradi Region, has served as a sanctuary. Its deep ethnic and historical ties to Sabon Birni, especially among the Gobirawa, have made it a natural destination for fleeing families from not only Sabon Birni but also other areas of Sokoto, Zamfara, and Katsina States.

“Guidan Roumdji is like a continuation of Sabon Birni,” said a local chief who asked not to be named. “The same people, the same roots, divided only by a line on the map.”

From peace to panic

Sabon Birni’s slide into chaos has been swift and brutal. Proximity to Zamfara, a notorious hub for non-state armed groups, has exposed it to the spillover of violence. Between 2019 and 2025, communities have endured waves of killings, mass abductions, sexual violence, and the destruction of schools, clinics, and farms.

Extortion has become a daily reality. “Bandits impose ‘life’ and ‘farming’ taxes,” said one resident. “If you don’t pay, you can’t live or work.”

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed that between May 2023 and April 2024, a staggering ₦1.2 trillion was paid in ransom from the North-West region. In Sabon Birni alone, reports from the Gobir Development Association indicate that over ₦160 billion was paid in ransom and protection levies between 2019 and 2024. An estimated 600,000 cattle and five million small ruminants have been rustled, while vast areas of farmland remain inaccessible.

Earlier, in July 2024, armed assailants stormed the Tsamaye community, killing people and abducting 20 others, including children. “They killed two persons and kidnapped 18 women and 2 men,” said the village head of Tsamaye.

In December, the Dan Tudu and Kwaren Gamba communities were targeted in a violent attack that left many people dead. Several men and women were abducted during the incident. 

“They rustle our livestock, rape our wives, abduct our children, and threaten anyone who speaks to the authorities,” an eyewitness of Kwaren Gamba attack said. “We live in silence, or we die.”

As attacks continue in the North West, communities remain displaced. Fearing attacks or oppressive demands from armed actors, thousands of Sabon Birni residents continue to flee to safer communities in Guidan Roumdji, leaving behind homes and livelihoods. 

Migration as survival

What began as a trickle of desperate families in 2019 has become a steady, tragic flow. By mid-2020, the UNHCR and Niger’s National Eligibility Commission had biometrically registered over 40,000 refugees in Guidan Roumdji. Tens of thousands more remain unregistered, spread across Niger’s southern regions.

“There are more Nigerians here than those officially registered,” said Hamidou, a resident of Tibiri. “They’ve scattered across communes, many are undocumented, unseen by any government.”

A turning point came on May 27, 2020, when coordinated attacks on Garki, Dan-Aduwa, Masawa, Katuma, and Kuzari districts left 74 dead and thousands displaced. The refugee population in Guidan Roumdji surged, with many settling in Tudun Sunnah village.

Describing the harrowing journey to safety, Manomi said they travelled on foot through informal routes, including Maiwa, Garin Bage, Son Allah, and the Burkusuma forest. Along the way, they learnt that similar assaults had been carried out on other communities. “While fleeing through the forest, we crossed paths with residents of Dan-Aduwa, Masawa, Katuma, and Kuzari, all desperate to survive,” he said.

Manomi’s wife, Kulu, described the journey as tragic and defined by sheer luck.

“On that day, we had no choice but to leave Garki. They burned houses and killed without mercy. We fled with nothing but the clothes on our backs, leaving our farmland behind. We trekked for hours through the bush, avoiding the roads for fear of ambush. My children cried from hunger and fear. There were moments when we thought we wouldn’t survive.”

The trend reflects the growing humanitarian crisis in many rural communities of northwestern Nigeria.

According to Manomi, their arrival in Tudun Sunnah village of Guidan Roumdji brought no relief, as they encountered scores of displaced people from rural areas of Zamfara, Katsina, and the Isa LGA of Sokoto State. “It was terrible,” he said. “People were pouring in from everywhere, escaping the violence that had consumed their villages.”

Hardship and hope in exile

Life in exile is marked by struggle. Refugees live in makeshift huts or open fields, surviving on meagre incomes from blacksmithing, petty trade, or subsistence labour. Healthcare is scarce, and disease outbreaks, including cholera, are common.

“Even here, life is tough,” said Sama’ila Mamadou, 61, who fled Dankware. “But it’s better than being killed back home.”

“When we finally reached Tudun Sunnah, we found hundreds of other refugees,” Kulu recalled. “We had no shelter, no food; only our lives. Now, we live in a makeshift camp in a nearby hamlet, sharing cramped conditions with many others who fled like us. Every day is a struggle. My husband now works as a manual labourer just to keep us going. But at least we are alive. I pray for peace, so we can return home.”

Local officials describe the living conditions as “pathetic.” Aminu Boza, a lawmaker from Sabon Birni, says he has distributed food and basic supplies out of his own pocket. “No shelter, no medicine, no toilets—an epidemic is just one rainstorm away,” he warned.

A patchwork of relief

While conditions remain harsh, there have been glimmers of support. The Nigerien government, in collaboration with UNHCR, Nigeria’s NEMA, and authorities in Sokoto, established “villages of opportunity,” — Dan Dadji Makaou, Garin Kaka, and Chadakori, for registered refugees from across the northwestern states. These camps in the aforementioned communities offer better security and more structured aid.

Yet most displaced persons remain outside this system. In towns like Tsouloulou, grassroots generosity by host communities sustains the newcomers. “People gave the little they have, such as clothes, maize, millet,” said Hussaini Shuaibu, a civil servant.

Wealthy individuals have also stepped in. Alhaji Umar Ajiya Isa donated trailers of food; Alhaji Mukhtar Shehu Shagari distributed rice and essentials.

“Since we arrived here in Tudun Sunnah, no institution or individual has given us any form of assistance,” said Manomi.

Resilience in ruins

Despite the hardship, many refugees are rebuilding. Women run food stalls, men farm on borrowed land, and youth repair phones or sell tailoring services. “We may not have much,” said Sama’ila Mamadou, a migrant from the Dankware community, “but we have each other. And we are trying.”

Back home, the attacks continue. In July 2024, Sarkin Gobir of Gatawa District, Alhaji Isa Bawa, was kidnapped and later died in captivity. The following days saw the abduction of over 150 residents. Between August and December, assaults intensified across Dan Tudu, Kwaren Gamba, and other villages.

A witness described one harrowing night: “Gunmen stormed our village, and a bride and her bridesmaids were kidnapped. We couldn’t stop them, we were helpless.”

By May 2025, attacks by the infamous Bello Turji drove thousands more from Gatawa District. Return is no longer a viable option.

“They tell us, ‘We cannot go back to a place where human life is worthless,’” said Ibrahim Maigari, a chief in Guidan Roumdji.

Future in Limbo

Most Sabon Birni refugees in Niger are unregistered, without access to education, healthcare, or legal protection. Insecurity, hunger, and disease continue to stalk them.

Calls for intervention are growing louder. “We need more than emergency aid,” said Boza. “We need security, justice, and a path back home.”

For now, however, hope clings to the resilience of the displaced.

Four sailors from Eternity C dead, 10 found alive, 11 still missing – six believed to be in Houthi hands.

Houthi rebels in Yemen attempted to strike Israel’s Ben Gurion airport after sinking two vessels in the Red Sea this week, as the group ramps up its military pressure in support of Palestinians under Israeli fire in its bid to bring the war in Gaza to an end.

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said on Thursday that the group had carried out a “qualitative military operation” with a ballistic missile after the Israeli military reported the strike had been intercepted.

Meanwhile, maritime security sources told the Reuters news agency that the Houthis were holding six crew members from the Greek-operated, Liberia-flagged Eternity C vessel, which the rebel group attacked on Monday, killing at least four sailors.

A total of 25 people were on board the Eternity C, according to Aspides, the European Union’s naval task force patrolling the Red Sea. Ten crew members were reportedly pulled out of the sea alive after the vessel sank on Tuesday, while 11 are still missing – with six believed to be in Houthi hands.

Saree said on Wednesday that the Houthis had “moved to rescue a number of the ship’s crew, provide them with medical care and transport them to a safe location”.

The United States embassy in Yemen countered that on X, accusing the rebels of kidnapping the crew members after “killing their shipmates, sinking their ship and hampering rescue efforts”.

The attack on the Eternity C came one day after the Houthis struck and sunk the Magic Seas, reviving a campaign launched in November 2023 that has seen more than 100 ships attacked. All the crew from the Magic Seas were rescued.

After Sunday’s attack, the Houthis declared that ships owned by companies with ties to Israel were a “legitimate target” and pledged to “prevent Israeli navigation in the Red and Arabian Seas … until the aggression against Gaza stops and the blockade is lifted”.

Late on Sunday, Israel’s military attacked Yemen, bombing the ports of Hodeidah, Ras Isa and as-Salif, as well as the Ras Qantib power plant on the coast. The Houthis had fired missiles towards Israeli territory in retaliation.

Israel said its attacks also hit a ship, the Galaxy Leader, which was seized by the Houthis in late 2023 and held in Ras Isa port.

The Houthis held 25 crew members from the Galaxy for 430 days before releasing them in January this year.

Deposed prime minister and others are indicted for crimes against humanity, with trial set for August.

Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) has indicted former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and two senior officials over alleged crimes against humanity linked to a deadly crackdown on protesters during last year’s July uprising.

The tribunal, led by Justice Golam Mortuza Mozumder and comprising justices Shafiul Alam Masud and Mohitul Enam Chowdhury, formally charged Hasina on Thursday.

Proceedings will begin on August 3 with opening statements, followed by the first witness testimony.

Hasina, who fled to India following a student-led uprising last August, had been facing several charges. Earlier this month, in a separate ruling, she was sentenced to six months in prison for contempt of court by the ICT. That had marked the first time she had received a formal sentence in any of the cases.

Chief Prosecutor Muhammad Tajul Islam said that the sentence delivered in absentia will take effect if Hasina is arrested or voluntarily returns to Bangladesh.

The two other accused on Thursday are former home minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal and former police chief Chowdhury Abdullah al-Mamun. While al-Mamun appeared before the court and remains in custody, both Hasina and Kamal have fled abroad.

The charges stem from Hasina’s now ousted government’s violent response to mass demonstrations, which critics say resulted in widespread human rights abuses and hundreds of deaths.

Hasina, who now lives in self-imposed exile in India after being deposed following a 15-year rule, has dismissed the tribunal as politically motivated.

Texans gather in Kerrville to mourn 120 flood victims and pray for more than 160 still missing.

Several hundred people have gathered in Tivy Antler Stadium in Texas to mourn the many lives lost and pray for those still missing from the catastrophic flash floods that battered the state over the United States July Fourth holiday.

The vigil, held on Wednesday in Kerrville – one of the worst-affected areas – brought together grieving families, local clergy, and volunteers. “Our communities were struck with tragedy literally in the darkness,” youth minister Wyatt Wentrcek told the crowd. “Middle of the night.”

At least 120 people have been confirmed dead, with more than 160 still unaccounted for, making it the deadliest inland flooding in the US since 1976. No survivors have been found since Friday.

Blue shirts bearing the school’s slogan, Tivy Fight Never Die, and green ribbons for Camp Mystic – a century-old all-girls Christian camp where at least 27 campers and counsellors died – were worn by many attendees. Officials said five campers and one counsellor from the camp remain unaccounted for.

Ricky Pruitt of the Kerrville Church of Christ addressed the crowd, noting the emotional weight of holding the vigil at a stadium more often used to celebrate sporting triumphs. “Tonight is very different than all of those nights,” he said, as reported by The Associated Press.

As mourners held each other and wiped their tears, search crews continued scouring the Guadalupe River – on foot, horseback, and by air – for those still missing. Search dogs were deployed to sniff through trees and piles of debris. Officials admitted hope of finding survivors had all but faded, with efforts now focused on giving families closure.

Worst flood in 50 years

Meteorologist Bob Henson said the disaster ranks as the most lethal inland flood in nearly five decades, surpassing the 1976 Big Thompson Canyon flood in Colorado, which killed 144.

Governor Greg Abbott said many of those who were in the Hill Country during the holiday were never formally registered at a camp or hotel, making it harder to account for everyone.

He has faced growing criticism over the state’s flood preparedness, with many asking why warnings were delayed and evacuation measures insufficient.

Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha assured residents that accountability would come but said the immediate priority remains to recover the missing.

Abbott has urged state legislators to approve a new flood warning system and boost emergency communication networks. He is pushing for the issue to be addressed during a special legislative session already scheduled to begin on July 21. He also called for financial aid to support recovery efforts.

For years, local officials have debated installing a flood siren system, but concerns over cost and noise meant the idea was shelved – a decision now under intense scrutiny.

US President Donald Trump has pledged full federal support and is expected to visit the affected areas on Friday.

The arrest comes after the court authorises former leader’s arrest, citing concerns he may destroy evidence.

South Korea’s former president, Yoon Suk-yeol, has been arrested for a second time and returned to a solitary jail cell over his ill-fated attempt to impose martial law last December.

Yoon’s detention on Thursday came after a court in the South Korean capital, Seoul, ordered his arrest, citing concerns the former leader could seek to destroy evidence.

The 64-year-old politician, who is on trial for insurrection, is being held at the Seoul Detention Center, where he spent 52 days earlier in the year before being released four months ago on technical grounds.

Yoon plunged South Korea into a political crisis when he sought to subvert civilian government on December 3, sending armed soldiers to parliament in a bid to prevent lawmakers from voting down his declaration of martial law.

He became South Korea’s first sitting president to be taken into custody when he was detained in a dawn raid in January, after spending weeks resisting arrest, using his presidential security detail to head off investigators.

But he was released on procedural grounds in March.

South Korea’s Constitutional Court then removed Yoon from office in April, paving the way for a snap election, which was held in June.

The country’s new president, Lee Jae Myung, approved legislation launching sweeping special investigations into Yoon’s push for martial law and various criminal accusations tied to his administration and wife.

Earlier this month, the special counsel questioned Yoon about his resistance during a failed arrest attempt in January, as well as accusations that he authorised drone flights to Pyongyang to help justify declaring martial law.

Yoon has defended his martial law decision as necessary to “root out” pro-North Korean and “antistate” forces.

The latest arrest warrant against Yoon authorises his detention for up to 20 days, as prosecutors prepare to formally indict him, including on additional charges.

“Once Yoon is indicted, he could remain detained for up to six months following indictment,” Yun Bok-nam, the president of Lawyers for a Democratic Society, told the AFP news agency.

“Theoretically, immediate release is possible, but in this case, the special counsel has argued that the risk of evidence destruction remains high, and that the charges are already substantially supported.”

During a hearing on the arrest warrant on Wednesday, Yoon’s legal team criticised the detention request as unreasonable, stressing that Yoon has been ousted and “no longer holds any authority”.

The former president also spoke at the seven-hour hearing, saying he is now “fighting alone”, according to South Korean media.

“The special counsel is now going after even my defence lawyers,” Yoon complained. “One by one, my lawyers are stepping away, and I may soon have to fight this alone.”

Meanwhile, Yoon’s lawyers said that the former leader would not attend the 10th hearing of his insurrection trial on Thursday following his arrest.

Citing health concerns, Yoon’s lawyers submitted a written reason for his absence to the court shortly before the hearing was scheduled to begin, according to South Korea’s official Yonhap news agency.

His lawyers, however, attended in his place, the agency said.

If convicted, Yoon could face a maximum penalty of life in prison or death.

Mumbai, India – A move by India’s top election body, the Election Commission of India (ECI), to re-scrutinise nearly 80 million voters’ documents in a bid to weed out “foreign illegal immigrants” has prompted widespread fears of mass disenfranchisement and deportations in the world’s largest democracy.

On June 24, the ECI announced that each of the nearly 80 million voters – equivalent to the entire population of the United Kingdom – in the eastern Indian state of Bihar will need to re-register as voters by July 26.

Those unable to do so will lose their right to vote and will be reported as “suspected foreign nationals”, as per the ECI directive and could even face jail or deportation. The state’s legislative elections are expected to be held in October or November.

Critics say the move is a backdoor route to implement the controversial National Register of Citizens (NRC) that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has proposed in the past as a way to identify “illegal immigrants” and deport them.

The move comes at a time when thousands of largely Bengali-speaking Muslims have been rounded up, and many of them have been deported from India as alleged Bangladeshi immigrants in the last few weeks.

Al Jazeera sent questions to the ECI about the move, but the commission has not responded, despite reminder emails.

What is the controversy about?

Bihar is India’s poorest state in terms of per capita income (PDF), and more than one-third of its population falls under the Indian government’s threshold of poverty.

But as the country’s third-most populous state, it is also one of India’s most politically important battlegrounds. Since 2005, Modi’s Hindu majoritarian Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been in power in Bihar in alliance with a regional party, the Janata Dal (United) (JDU), for the most part, apart from short periods of rule by opposition-led alliances.

Coming ahead of state elections, the election monitor’s move has led to confusion, panic and a scramble for documents among some of the country’s poorest communities in rural Bihar, say critics.

Opposition politicians as well as civil society groups have argued that wide portions of Bihar’s population will not be able to provide citizenship documents within the short window they have to justify their right to vote, and would be left disenfranchised.

India’s principal opposition party, the Indian National Congress, along with its Bihar alliance partner, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), called for a shutdown of Bihar on Wednesday, with Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi leading the protests in Bihar’s capital, Patna.

A clutch of petitioners, including opposition leaders and civil society groups, have approached India’s Supreme Court asking for the exercise to be scrapped. The court is expected to hear these petitions on Thursday.

The ruling BJP has been alleging a massive influx of Muslim immigrants from neighbouring Bangladesh and Myanmar and has backed the ECI’s move. In fact, it has demanded that the move be replicated across the country. Al Jazeera reached out to BJP’s chief spokesperson and media in-charge, Anil Baluni, through text and email for the party’s comments. He has not responded yet.

But political observers and election transparency experts caution that the move carries deep implications for the future of Indian democracy and the rights of voters.

What is the Election Commission’s justification for the move?

The ECI’s June 24 announcement said that the exercise was meant to ensure that “no ineligible voter is included in the roll”, and cited reasons like rapid urbanisation, frequent migration, new voters, dead voters and “the inclusion of foreign illegal immigrants” in the list as reasons.

The last such full revision was carried out in 2003, but since then, electoral rolls have been regularly updated and cleaned, including last year before the national elections.

According to the ECI, those voters who were on the 2003 voter list have to only re-submit voter registration forms, while those who were added later, depending on when they were added, would have to submit proof of their date of birth as well as place of birth as well, along with proofs of one or both their parents.

Of the 79.6 million-odd voters in Bihar, the ECI has estimated that only 29 million voters would have to verify their credentials. But independent estimates suggest this number could be upwards of 47 million.

The exercise involves ECI officials first going door-to-door and distributing enumeration forms to each registered voter. The voters are then expected to produce documents, attach these documents and submit them along with the forms to election officials, all this by July 26. The draft new electoral roll will be published on August 1, and those who have been left out will get a month more to object.

Jagdeep Chhokar, from the Association of Democratic Reforms (ADR), a 25-year-old nonprofit that has been working towards electoral reforms, said the ECI’s choice to scrutinise all new voters added since 2003 casts a shadow on all the elections that the state has seen since then.

“Is the ECI saying that there has been a huge scam in Bihar’s voter list since 2003? Is it saying that everyone who got elected from Bihar in these 22 years is not valid, then?” asked Chhokar.

What is the criticism of this exercise?

First, the timeline: to reach out to nearly 80 million at least twice, within a month, is a herculean task in itself. The ECI has appointed nearly 100,000 officers and roped in nearly 400,000 volunteers for the task.

Second, despite the mammoth nature of the exercise and its implications, the ECI did not hold any public consultations on the subject before announcing the move in a written order on June 24, a move decried by experts.

“That such a big decision was taken and brought out in such a secretive way, without consultation, raises questions around the ECI’s partiality,” said Pushpendra, a former professor and dean at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences, who is based in Bihar and who did not wish to give his full name.

Third, experts warn that millions of legitimate voters in Bihar will struggle to provide the documents that the ECI has asked them to furnish.

The election authority has ruled that it will not accept the Aadhar card, a unique identity document issued by the Indian government, nor the voter identity card issued by the ECI itself, which has historically sufficed as the document people need to show to vote.

Instead, it has asked voters to submit from a range of 11 listed documents – from birth certificates to passports, to forest rights certificates or education certificates issued by the state.

But Bihar has the lowest literacy rate (PDF) in the country, at just 62 percent against the national average of 73 percent. A 2023 survey by the Bihar government showed that just 14.71 percent of Bihar’s population had cleared grade 10 in school, thus rendering education certificates – one of the documents voters could show – out of the reach for most of the population.

Similarly, government data shows that Bihar also has one of the lowest birth registration rates in the country, with 25 percent of births not being registered. That means birth certificates are out of reach for a quarter of the population.

Pushpendra, the academic, said that it was the state’s failure to ensure that people have the documentation it seeks of legitimate citizens. “You cannot punish people if the state lacks capacity to distribute these documents,” he said.

Fourth, the ECI’s timing has also been criticised by many: The state sees its annual monsoon season between June and October, and routinely sees devastating floods as a result of the rains. State government data show two-thirds of Bihar is flood-prone, and the annual damage due to Bihar’s floods accounts for 30-40 percent of the total flood damage in India. Last year, more than 4.5 million people were affected by the worst floods that Bihar experienced in decades.

“It’s these flood-prone areas that are the most deficient in proper documentation because they routinely suffer from devastating floods that wash away entire villages,” said Pushpendra.

Finally, the ECI’s exercise signals a fundamental shift in the way it seeks to enrol voters, said ADR’s Chhokar.

“At no point in the country’s 70 years has the voting eligibility criterion changed – voters were always supposed to provide their date of birth,” Chhokar said. “This exercise changes this criterion to say that voters now have to also provide their location of birth.”

What’s the political significance of this move?

Even though the ECI is an autonomous body, its targeting of undocumented immigrants mirrors the BJP’s rhetoric on the issue, experts have pointed out.

Ever since it lost its parliamentary majority last year and was forced to enter a coalition, Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has alleged that a large-scale influx of Rohingya refugees and Bangladeshi immigrants into India has altered India’s demographics. India’s Border Security Force (BSF), responsible for guarding India’s borders against such undocumented immigration, falls under the Modi government’s Ministry of Home Affairs, led by close Modi aide, Amit Shah.

Party leaders led by Modi himself have made such claims of a massive flood of Rohingya and Bangladeshi immigrants in nearly every regional election since then, be it in Maharashtra, Jharkhand or Delhi.

Last year in December, the party’s leaders met the ECI to submit alleged evidence that Rohingya refugees and Bangladeshi citizens had been illegally enrolled as voters. Indian laws permit only Indian citizens to vote.

For the ECI to now accept this contention, without disclosing any evidence it has about noncitizens being enrolled as voters, is driving many suspicious.

“The ECI has not been able to provide any reason for why it thought this revision was needed. They have no data to demonstrate its claims [of undocumented immigrants in voter lists],” said Apoorvanand, a professor at the University of Delhi and political commentator who hails from Bihar and also did not wish to be identified by his full name. “Which is why this has no longer remained a bureaucratic, neutral exercise of a constitutional body. Its politics is very suspicious,” he added.

For its part, the BJP has come out in support of this exercise and has even demanded that it be rolled out in other parts of the country.

Pushpendra, the former TISS dean, said traditionally marginalised communities and religious minorities would be the worst-hit in this voter revision drive, because they are the least likely to hold documents like a passport, educational certificate or birth certificate.

“These communities have, traditionally, always supported the [opposition] RJD and the Congress,” he said.

Simply put, if they can’t vote, it’s an advantage for BJP.

Is this just about the election?

Over the last few months, the Modi government, as well as BJP governments in various states, have intensified efforts to identify undocumented migrants in the country and deport them. In at least eight Indian states, hundreds have been rounded up, detained on charges of being undocumented immigrants.

This drive has focused largely on Bengali-speaking Muslim migrants. Thousands of alleged Bangladeshis have been pushed into Bangladesh at gunpoint by Indian authorities. Authorities have been accused of not following procedure and hurriedly deporting them. Often, even Indian Muslim citizens have been deported in the drive.

For many, this is reminiscent of the Modi government’s plans to create a National Register of Citizens (NRC), which would identify and then deport those found staying without any documents. In December 2019, Home Minister Amit Shah had set 2024 as the deadline for the NRC exercise and insisted that “each and every illegal immigrant will be thrown out” by 2024.

Such a move affects Muslims disproportionately, thanks to India’s amended citizenship laws, which fast-track citizenship for Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists, Parsis and Christians, while leaving Muslims out of it. The laws, approved in 2019 by the Indian Parliament, were operationalised last year in March by the Modi government, and will help non-Muslims avoid deportation and jail if found to be staying without documents.

In Bihar, Muslims make up 17 percent of the state’s population, and number about 17.6 million across the state.

Apoorvanand, the academic, said the Bihar electoral roll revision was NRC, in effect.

“Ultimately, the ECI is asking citizens to prove their citizenship by furnishing documents,” he said.

Chhokar from ADR, which was the first organisation to petition the Supreme Court asking it to scrap the exercise, said the consequences of the revision would be grim. “You might have an electoral roll in which half the state’s population would be left without a right to vote,” he said.

For the second time this week, Reform UK have announced a former Conservative cabinet minister has joined them.

The other day they said that former Welsh Secretary David Jones had signed up, back in January.

Two other former Tory MPs defected recently too – Anne Marie Morris and Ross Thomson.

Now it is Sir Jake Berry joining Nigel Farage’s party.

A man knighted by Boris Johnson.

A man whose son counts Johnson as his godfather.

A man who used to be the chairman of the Conservative Party and who was a Tory minister in three different government departments.

And yet a man who now says this: “If you were deliberately trying to wreck the country, you’d be hard pressed to do a better job than the last two decades of Labour and Tory rule.”

Read that sentence again and consider it was written by someone who was not just a Tory MP for 14 years but a senior one, occupying high office.

Extraordinary.

And this is probably not the end of it – both Reform and Conservative folk I speak to hint they expect there to be more to come.

Tories are trying to put the best gloss on it they can, saying Reform might be attracting former MPs – Sir Jake lost his seat at the last election – but they are losing current MPs.

The MP James McMurdock suspended himself from Reform at the weekend after a story in the Sunday Times about loans he took out under a Covid support scheme.

McMurdock has said he was compliant with the rules.

But the trend is clear: Conservatives of varying seniority are being lured across by Nigel Farage and are proud to say so when they make the leap.

Reform are particularly delighted that Sir Jake has not just defected but done so by going “studs in” on his former party, as one source put it.

“For us this is really crucial. If you want to join us you need to be really going for the other side when you do. Drawing a proper line in the sand,” they added.

They regard Sir Jake’s closeness to Boris Johnson as “dagger-in-the-heart stuff” for the Conservatives.

But perhaps the more interesting and consequential pivot in strategy we are currently witnessing is Labour’s approach to Reform.

At the very highest level in government they are reshaping their approach: turning their attention away from their principal opponent of the last century and more, the Conservatives, and tilting instead towards Nigel Farage’s party.

Again, extraordinary.

It tells you a lot about our contemporary politics that a party with Labour’s history, sitting on top of a colossal Commons majority, is now shifting its focus to a party with just a handful of MPs.

Senior ministers take the rise of Reform incredibly seriously and are not dismissing them as a flash in the pan insurgency.

After all, Reform’s lead in many opinion polls has proven to be sustained in recent months and was then garnished with their impressive performance in the English local elections in May and their win, on the same day, in the parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby in Cheshire.

If Labour folk then were still in need of the jolt of a wake-up call, that night provided it.

In their immediate response to Sir Jake’s defection, Labour are pointing to Reform recruiting Liz Truss’s party chairman and so are inheriting, they claim, her “reckless economics”.

But they know the challenge of taking on and, they hope, defeating Reform, will be work of years of slog and will have to be grounded in proving they can deliver in government – not easy, as their first year in office has so often proven.

Not for the first time in recent months, Reform UK have momentum and are making the political weather.

A top US Department of State official waived nine mandatory counterterrorism and anti-fraud safeguards to rush a $30m award last month to a controversial Gaza aid group backed by the Trump administration and Israel, the Reuters news agency reported, citing an internal memorandum.

Jeremy Lewin, a former Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) associate, signed off on the award despite an assessment in the memorandum that the GHF funding plan failed to meet required “minimum technical or budgetary standards”.

The June 24 action memorandum to Lewin was sent by Kenneth Jackson, also a former DOGE operative who serves as an acting deputy US Agency for International Development (USAID) administrator. The pair has overseen the agency’s dismantling and the merger of its functions into the State Department.

Lewin also overrode 58 objections that USAID staff experts wanted GHF to resolve in its application before the funds were approved, the Reuters news agency reported, citing two sources familiar with the matter.

Lewin, who runs the State Department’s foreign aid programme, cleared the funds only five days after GHF filed its proposal on June 19, according to the June 24 “action memorandum” bearing his signature.

“Strong Admin support for this one,” Lewin wrote to USAID leaders in a June 25 email, Reuters reported, that urged disbursement of the funds by the agency “ASAP”.

Lewin and Jackson have not issued comments on the matter.

The documents underline the priority the Trump administration has given GHF despite the group’s lack of experience and the killing of hundreds of Palestinians near its Gaza aid distribution hubs.

GHF, which closely coordinates with the Israeli military, has acknowledged reports of violence, but claims they occurred beyond its operations area.

Lewin noted in the email that he had discussed the funds with aides to Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s negotiator on Gaza, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s office.

He acknowledged that authorising the funds would be controversial, writing, “I’m taking the bullet on this one.”

‘Inhumane and deadly’

There was no comment from the White House.

Reuters said Witkoff and Rubio did not reply to a question about whether they were aware of and supported the decision to waive the safeguards.

The State Department told Reuters that the $30m was approved under a legal provision allowing USAID to expedite awards in response to “emergency situations” to “meet humanitarian needs as expeditiously as possible”.

“The GHF award remains subject to rigorous oversight, including of GHF’s operations and finances,” the statement said. “As part of the award, GHF was subject to new control and reporting requirements”.

A GHF spokesperson told Reuters, “Our model is specifically designed to prevent waste, fraud, and abuse. Every dollar we receive is safeguarded to ensure all resources — which will eventually include American taxpayer funds — reach the people of Gaza.” The spokesperson added that such requests for clarification from the US government about fund applications were routine.

Speaking about the nine conditions that were waived, the spokesperson said, “We are addressing each question as per regulations and normal procedure and will continue to do so as required.”

Gaza’s Health Ministry has said at least 743 Palestinians have been killed and more than 4,891 others injured while seeking assistance at GHF aid sites.

The GHF, which began operating in the bombarded Palestinian enclave in late May, has drawn widespread criticism amid multiple reports that its contractors, as well as Israeli forces, have opened fire on aid seekers.

Leading humanitarian and human rights groups have demanded the immediate closure of the GHF, which they accused of “forcing two million people into overcrowded, militarised zones where they face daily gunfire and mass casualties”.

Amnesty International has described the group’s operations as an “inhumane and deadly militarised scheme”, while the UN insists that the model is violating humanitarian principles.

Palestinians under bombardment in Gaza, where a famine looms as Israel maintains a crippling blockade, have no choice but to seek aid from the GHF despite the risks involved.

US President Donald Trump said he was planning to impose a 50% tax on goods made in Brazil, escalating his fight with the South American country.

He announced the plan in his latest tariff letter, which was shared on social media.

In it, Trump accuses Brazil of “attacks” on US tech companies and of conducting a “witch hunt” against former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, who is facing prosecution over his alleged role in a plot to overturn the 2022 election.

Responding in a social media post, Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said an increase in tariffs on Brazil would be reciprocated, and he warned against any interference in the nation’s judicial system.

Trump also sparred with Lula about Bolsonaro’s trial earlier this week.

At the time, Lula said Brazil would not accept “interference” from anyone and added: “No one is above the law.”

Also on Wednesday, Trump said a 50% tariff on copper imports, that he announced earlier this week, will come into effect on 1 August.

He said in a social media post that the decision was made due to national security concerns.

Trump has posted 22 letters to countries around the world this week, including trade partners such as Japan, South Korea and Sri Lanka, outlining new tariffs on their goods which he says will come into force on 1 August.

Those moves have largely served to revive plans he had put forward in April, but that were put on hold after financial markets recoiled at the measures.

But the message to Brazil was a far more targeted missive and threatened a significant increase from the 10% tariff the White House had previously announced on goods from the country.

Unlike many other countries, the US enjoyed a trade surplus with Brazil last year, selling more goods in the country than it purchased from it.

In the letter, Trump called the 50% rate “necessary… to rectify the grave injustices of the current regime”.

He said he would order the US Trade Representative to launch a so-called 301 investigation into Brazil’s digital trade practices.

Such a move would mark a turn towards a more established legal process that the US has used to impose tariffs in the past, toughening the threat. In his first term, Trump took a similar step over Brazil’s consideration of a tax targeting tech firms.

Trump, in the letter, accused the Brazilian government of “insidious attacks on Free Elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans” including the censorship of “US Social Media platforms”.

Trump’s social media company, Trump Media, is among the US tech companies fighting Brazilian court rulings over orders suspending social media accounts.

The country had also temporarily banned Elon Musk’s X, formerly known as Twitter, after the platform refused to ban accounts that were deemed by Brazil to be spreading misinformation about the 2022 Brazilian presidential election.

Last month, Brazil’s Supreme Court ruled that social media companies can be held responsible for content posted on their platforms.

In his letter, Trump also spoke favourably of former Brazilian president Bolsonaro, saying he “respected him greatly”. He added that the ongoing trial against him is “an international disgrace”.

Trump and Bolsonaro enjoyed a friendly relationship when their presidencies overlapped, with the pair meeting in 2019 at the White House during Trump’s first term. Bolsonaro is often dubbed “Trump of the Tropics”.

Both men subsequently lost presidential elections and both refused to publicly acknowledge defeat.

Bolsonaro, who governed Brazil between 2019 and 2022, is standing trial for allegedly attempting a coup with thousands of his supporters storming government buildings in the capital in January 2023 after Lula was victorious in the election.

Bolsonaro was in the United States at the time and has denied any links to the rioters or any involvement in the plot.

Earlier this week, Trump had compared Bolsonaro’s prosecution to the legal cases he has similarly faced.

“This is nothing more, or less, than an attack on a Political Opponent – Something I know much about!” Trump had said. In response, Bolsonaro thanked the US president for his support.

Trump was also critical of the Brics summit in Rio de Janeiro, where the group of developing nations met on Sunday. Trump called the group, which includes Brazil, “anti-American” and said those countries would be charged an additional 10% tariff.

President Lula fired back on Monday against Trump’s social media threats.

“He needs to know that the world has changed,” Lula said. “We don’t want an emperor.”

In the aftermath of the devastating floods that swept through the Texas Hill Country in Texas in the United States, a tight-knit community is mourning the loss of at least 110 lives to flash flooding – including 27 at Camp Mystic, an all-girls summer camp situated along the Guadalupe River.

Camp Mystic bore the brunt of the floodwaters, but the region is home to several popular sleepaway camps and youth facilities serving families from across Texas, including Hill Country Youth Ranch. Tony Gallucci, who has lived in the area for more than 40 years, works there.

“We’re gonna have some clearing [of debris like fallen trees] to do, we’ve got a log jam and that kind of stuff,” Gallucci said. “We do have one road [in their facilities] that buckled; it’ll have to be repaired.”

The ranch sits uphill from the river, unlike Camp Mystic, where 2.4 metres (8ft) of water filled cabins with sleeping campers in the early morning hours of July 4, and the Guadalupe River rose more than six metres (20ft) in two hours. Among the dead is camp director Dick Eastland, who perished trying to save the girls from the rushing floodwaters.

Flash flooding is a recurring threat in this part of Texas. The Hill Country, including Kerr County where the camp is located, has thin soil and limestone bedrock that limits rain from soaking into the ground, funnelling it quickly into rivers and creeks. Storms fuelled by gulf moisture and clashing air masses often drop several inches of rain in a short span, overwhelming the terrain.

That was the case last week, as deep tropical moisture in the wake of Tropical Storm Barry, which had just struck southern Mexico, fuelled intense rainfall. The Guadalupe River has flooded catastrophically in the past, with notable incidents in 1978, 1987 and in 2002, raising longstanding concerns about the vulnerability of riverside camps. Because this risk is well known, the latest tragedy has renewed scrutiny over what went wrong – and whether it could have been prevented.

A policy problem

Earlier this year, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cut 600 positions at the National Weather Service (NWS) – the agency tasked with forecasting storms and issuing warnings. As a result, many local offices lack the staff needed to adequately inform the public. In Houston, 30 percent of NWS positions remain vacant.

“Accurate weather forecasting helps avoid fatal disasters. There are consequences to Trump’s brainless attacks on public workers, like meteorologists.” Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy said in a post on X.

However, both the San Antonio and San Angelo NWS field offices, which oversee forecasting for the region that includes Kerr County, were adequately staffed at the time of the flash floods, and the office actually had more staff than usual, with five people on duty instead of the typical two.

Murphy’s office did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.

The NWS issued a flash flood watch at 12:41am Central Time (05:41 GMT), warning that “excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks”.  As conditions worsened, a flash flood warning was issued at 1:14 am, and a flash flood emergency was declared after 5:30am local time.

Still, Tom Fahy, legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization, told The New York Times that the San Angelo office remains understaffed overall, missing a forecaster, a meteorologist-in-charge, and a senior hydrologist. Fahy did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.

The recent job cuts by DOGE could hinder the ability of NWS offices nationwide to predict and respond to future severe weather events. There are additional reductions to the NWS included in the tax bill signed into law by President Donald Trump last week.

The legislation rescinds funding for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which oversees the NWS. Those changes were drafted by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, chaired by Texas Senator Ted Cruz.

“Only a shameless and soulless partisan hack would tie the One, Big, Beautiful Bill to the Texas floods. The funds rescinded had nothing to do with weather forecasting, but were instead used for ‘heat awareness’ campaigns, ‘Green Collar jobs,’ creating a climate resilience plan based on an Indian tribe’s ‘traditional knowledge’ of weather, building a new visitor’s center at an aquarium, and ‘citizen science’ around fishing. None of the rescinded funding was obligated for any existing operations or forecasting activity,” Macarena Martinez, communications director for Senator Cruz, said in a statement.

The bill actually includes funding for additional “Weather Observing Systems” but only specifies those to be set up at airports. The legislation also maintains current funding levels for the NWS.

“After getting a 41 percent increase in its budget in the last decade, NOAA now spends roughly $3bn annually on weather forecasting, research, and related infrastructure. Even the Biden administration had proposed to cancel millions in future radar research, in part because much of the project has already been completed and would explain why, after nearly three years, the funds remained unspent. There’s simply more productive ways to be faithful stewards of public money and improve weather forecasts than continuing to overfund every possible NOAA account,” Martinez added.

The Biden administration proposed cuts to NOAA in March 2024. The Trump administration’s fiscal year 2026 proposal would cut funding for climate research, which would cut the development of new weather forecasting technologies that would, contrary to Cruz’s claims, impact weather forecasts.

The White House did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.

Poor flood infrastructure

Texas has increased funding for flood-related infrastructure projects in recent years, but those efforts have largely been reactionary rather than preventive.

“The loss of life is tragic. While we can’t predict every storm, we do everything we can to prepare. Texas is strong and takes every disaster seriously,” Coalter Baker, head of the Gulf Coast Protection District (GCPD), a state-funded agency responsible for coastal resiliency planning, told Al Jazeera.

The Texas Gulf Coast has experienced some of the most devastating flooding events in US history. After Hurricane Harvey – a storm in August 2017 so intense that the NWS had to add new colours to its rainfall maps – the state created the Texas Infrastructure Fund. Since the fund’s launch, it has allocated roughly $669m in funding, though only one project was located in Kerr County.

“After Tropical Storm Allison in 2001, we invested in flood prevention that still protects us today. Hurricane Ike in 2008 led to the Coastal Texas Project – the largest US Army Corps of Engineers effort ever – to defend our coast and communities. And after Hurricane Harvey in 2017, we created a first-of-its-kind flood infrastructure fund to reduce future risk. We’ll keep working – federal, state, and local – to protect lives, homes, and our economy,” said Baker, who previously served in the Trump administration and worked in the Texas Office of State-Federal Relations alongside Governor Greg Abbott.

But in this part of Texas – more than 480 kilometres (300 miles) inland – flood infrastructure improvements haven’t materialised.  According to a new Houston Chronicle investigation, Kerr County, where the affected camp is located, requested state funding three times to improve its flash flood warning system. The state rejected its requests.

Instead, the state deferred the responsibility to the county. Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly told The New York Times taxpayers would oppose providing local funding because of the cost.

In April, the Upper Guadalupe River Authority (UGRA), a state-funded government agency, granted a more than $72,000 contract to develop a flood warning system despite concerns being raised almost a decade ago. The UGRA did not respond to our request for comment.

This comes as the Texas state house failed to pass a bill this year that would have improved the state’s emergency communication infrastructure. Among those who voted against the bill was Representative Wes Virdell, who represents Kerr County. Virdell did not respond to our request for comment.

Following the recent floods, Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick said the state will now pay to install a flash flood warning system, despite the state previously denying such requests.

“That’s going to be one of the issues that we begin to address in less than two weeks in the state legislature. We’re going to address every aspect of this storm to make sure that we’re going to have in place the systems that are needed to prevent deadly flooding events like this in the future.” Governor Greg Abbott said in a news conference on Tuesday.

Abbott’s office did not reply to Al Jazeera’s request for further details.

When asked about the current system, Judge Kelly told reporters at a Friday news conference, “We do not have a warning system.”

“This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States, and we deal with floods on a regular basis. When it rains, we get water. We had no reason to believe that this was going to be anything like what’s happened here. None whatsoever.”

Kelly did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.

Texas did not release its first statewide flood plan until last year.

United States President Donald Trump has continued to publish letters announcing individualised tariff hikes for foreign trading partners.

But on Wednesday, one of those letters was different from the rest.

While most of the letters are virtually identical, denouncing trade relationships that are “far from reciprocal”, Trump’s letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took a decidedly more personal — and more confrontational — approach.

“Due in part to Brazil’s insidious attacks on Free Elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans”, Trump wrote that he would be charging Brazil an extra 50-percent tax on any goods it exports to the US, separate from existing “sectoral tariffs”.

“Please understand that the 50% number is far less than what is needed to have the Level Playing Field we must have with your Country,” Trump added. “And it is necessary to have this to rectify the grave injustices of the current regime.”

The letter marked the biggest attack yet in Trump’s escalating feud with Lula, as he seeks to pressure Brazil to drop criminal charges against a fellow far-right leader, Jair Bolsonaro.

Known as the “Trump of the Tropics”, Bolsonaro, a former army captain, led Brazil for a single term, from 2019 to 2023.

Like Trump, Bolsonaro refused to concede his election loss to a left-wing rival. Like Trump, Bolsonaro also raised questions about the accuracy of the results, including by voicing doubts about electronic voting machines.

And like Trump, Bolsonaro has faced legal repercussions, with court cases weighing whether he could be criminally liable for alleged actions he took to overturn his defeat.

In Bolsonaro’s case, the election in question took place in October 2022, against the current president, Lula. The results were narrow, but Lula edged Bolsonaro out in a run-off race, earning 50.9 percent of the vote.

Still, Bolsonaro did not acknowledge his defeat and instead filed a legal complaint to contest the election results.

Meanwhile, his followers attacked police headquarters, blocked highways, and even stormed government buildings in the capital, Brasilia, in an apparent attempt to spark a military backlash against Lula.

Prosecutors, meanwhile, have accused Bolsonaro of conspiring with allies behind the scenes to stage a coup d’etat, one that might have seen Supreme Court justices arrested and a new election called.

According to the indictment, Bolsonaro, as the outgoing president, considered provoking these changes by calling a “state of siege”, which would have empowered the military to take action.

One of the other possibilities reportedly discussed was poisoning Lula.

Bolsonaro and 33 others were charged in February, and the ex-president’s case is ongoing before the Brazilian Supreme Court.

The charges came as the result of a federal police investigation published in November 2024, which recommended a criminal trial. Bolsonaro, however, has denied any wrongdoing and has framed the trial as a politically motivated attack.

Trump himself has faced two criminal indictments – one on the state level, the other federal – for allegedly seeking to overturn his loss in the 2020 election. He, too, called those cases attempts to derail his political career.

In recent days, Trump has highlighted what he sees as parallels between their cases. On July 7, he wrote on social media that he empathised with what was happening to Bolsonaro: “It happened to me, times 10.”

He reprised that theme in Wednesday’s letter, announcing the dramatic increase in tariffs against Brazil.

“The way that Brazil has treated former President Bolsonaro, a Highly Respected Leader throughout the World during his term, including by the United states, is an international disgrace,” Trump said.

“This trial should not be taking place,” he added. “It is a Witch Hunt that should end IMMEDIATELY!”

In addition to ramping up tariffs against Brazil, Trump revealed in his letter that he had directed US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to investigate Brazil for unfair practices under the Trade Act of 1974.

This is not the first time that Trump has lashed out at Brazil, though. In February, the Trump Media and Technology Group filed a Florida lawsuit against Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, arguing that his decisions curtailed online freedom of speech in the US.

De Moraes had also overseen the investigation into Bolsonaro’s alleged coup attempt, and he is a target of criticism among many on the far right.

While Trump’s tariff letter contained the standard language alleging that the US’s trading relationship with Brazil was “very unfair”, the US actually enjoys a trade surplus with the South American country.

According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, in 2024, the US imported a total of $42.3bn from Brazil. But that was dwarfed by the amount it exported to the country: $49.7bn.

In short, Brazil’s purchases from the US amounted to about $7.4bn more than US purchases from Brazil.

Still, Trump has cited uneven trade relationships as the motivation for his tariffs, though he has also used them to influence other countries’ policies, particularly with regards to immigration, digital services and transnational drug smuggling.

On Wednesday, Bolsonaro took to social media to once again proclaim his innocence. In a separate case, he was barred from holding public office in Brazil for a period of eight years.

“Jair Bolsonaro is persecuted because he remains alive in the popular consciousness,” the ex-president wrote in the third person. “Even out of power, he remains the most remembered name – and the most feared. That’s why they try to annihilate him politically, morally, and judicially.”

He also reposted a message from Trump himself: “Leave the Great Former President of Brazil alone. WITCH HUNT!!!”

Lula, meanwhile, responded to Trump’s previous tariff threats on Monday by saying, “The world has changed. We don’t want an emperor.”