Times of Troy: Six bold predictions for the USC football team in 2025

Welcome back to the Times of Troy newsletter, and the happiest of birthdays to my son, Camden, who turns 2 today. Judging by how often he’s pointing at the TV and screaming for me to turn on NFL preseason games, I’d say he is as ready for “ball ball” season as anyone.

Fortunately for him — and us — we are less than two weeks out from USC’s season opener against Missouri State. There’s still a lot we don’t know. But before we walk our way through the schedule next week, it’s time to get on the record with a few things I think might happen with USC..

Here are six bold predictions for the Trojans in 2025:

Jayden Maiava will throw for 30 touchdowns this season. But he’ll also throw 15 interceptions.

Maiava made a concerted effort over the summer to eliminate the back-breaking mistakes he struggled with last season. He dug deeper into Lincoln Riley’s offense, and he worked on his mechanics with the experts at the 3DQB training academy. But Maiava’s style is always going to lend itself to high variance. He loves to chuck it deep and still seems to throw it too often into coverage. That’s going to yield some thrilling results at times on an offense that should be more conducive to big plays. But 4.3% of his passes last season were deemed turnover-worthy by Pro Football Focus. That was third-highest in the Big Ten and too high for USC’s offense to reach its potential. His big-time throw rate was also third-highest in the Big Ten at 5.1%, though, and that was before he fully grasped the Trojans offense. There’s room to grow here. But I’d caution that his proclivity for throwing caution to the wind might just be a part of the deal with Maiava.

USC will be shuffling its offensive line all season.

USC hasn’t really had a reliable front since Riley’s first season, and this is by far his most unproven unit yet. The interior is a legitimate concern if DJ Wingfield isn’t deemed eligible. I expect at some point this season we’ll see a former walk-on (Kilian O’Connor) and a preferred walk-on (Kaylon Miller) start a game at center and guard, respectively. And while both should be commended for their development, that’s not a good sign for USC’s offense. The Trojans desperately need Elijah Paige to deliver on his huge potential this season at left tackle, Alani Noa to iron out some of his inconsistencies at right guard, and Tobias Raymond to live up to Riley’s billing of him as one of the best players on the team. That’s a lot to ask. Expect many different combinations up front for USC, with J’Onre Reed, Micah Banuelos and Justin Tauanuu also logging starts throughout. That’s eight different starters on the line, which would be the most since Riley took over at USC.

USC will have two 1,000-yard receivers.

The last time a duo of Trojan receivers crossed that mark was 2019, so not that long ago, but it’s been pretty rare around college football the past decade. Less than two teams on average per year, to be exact. Still, I’m going to go out on a limb here and say Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon both cross that mark. Lemon’s last eight games of 2024 put him on pace for more than 1,000 yards already, and that was with a much less potent downfield passing game for most of the season. Lane might be the more unlikely of the two to reach this mark, but I’m betting on talent. He has to see more targets this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a target share for the two of them that nears 50%. In the bowl game, the two of them saw a combined 18 targets, a 46% target share.

Walker Lyons will be USC’s most productive tight end.

This is no shade on Lake McRee, who has been a reliable tentpole of the Trojans’ attack for a while now. But Lyons is just the sort of tight end that should thrive in Riley’s offense. More than anyone Riley has worked with yet at USC, Lyons is more in the mold of Mark Andrews, who emerged as one of the top tight ends in college football in Riley’s first season at Oklahoma. Like Andrews, he came to college as more of a skilled receiver learning to play inline. Now it’s clear he’s ready for the next step. A breakout season could be incoming.

USC will have three first-round picks next April.

A look at recent history might suggest that I’m crazy. USC had three players drafted total last spring and haven’t seen three Trojans drafted in the first round since 2009. Alas, I’m still not deterred. Either or both of Lemon and Lane could hear their names called in the first round. Kamari Ramsey might have been a first-round pick last season, if he’d declared, and Gentry has all the tools to make it happen. It’s not crazy to think that others could enter the chat too. With a huge breakout season, Maiava, Paige and defensive tackle Devan Thompkins are intriguing cases to consider. Though, the first round might be a bit too optimistic.

USC will rediscover its pass rush.

Count me as someone who believes USC’s defense takes another step forward. And I expect that progress will be most apparent in the defensive front, where USC could barely conjure a pass rush last season. Braylan Shelby led the 2024 defense with … three measly sacks. I expect we’ll see five different Trojan pass rushers pass that number this season. Gentry and sophomore Kameryn Fountain are both capable of reaching double-digit sacks, while Shelby, Anthony Lucas and freshman Jahkeem Stewart each are sure to chip in a handful on their own. Judging by early praise, Stewart could very well be the team’s best pass rusher by December.

Have your own bold takes or predictions that you want to get on the record in the next Times of Troy newsletter? Send them to me at ryan.kartje@latimes.com, and I’ll include some of the best ones next week.

Makai Lemon

(Kyusung Gong / Associated Press)

—The NCAA’s 2010 sanctions of USC only get more insane by the year. This week, the NCAA issued its punishment in the Michigan sign-stealing scandal. Aside from a $20-million fine, which is substantial, the punishment reflected how much has changed societally since 2010, and the reality of how toothless the NCAA has become. That wasn’t the case in 2010, when the NCAA dropped the hammer on USC, taking away 30 scholarships and banning them from bowl games for two seasons amid the Reggie Bush saga, while the BCS stripped the school of its 2004 title. That punishment was devastating primarily to players who had nothing to do with the crime. This latest ruling clearly tried to avoid that, which is a commendable change from the NCAA. But it did understandably upset some USC fans who are still frustrated with how they were treated in a case that had far less of an actual influence on the field.

—Special teams coach Ryan Dougherty understands USC’s placekicking hasn’t been good enough. Michael Lantz hit just 14 of his 21 attempts (66.7%) last season. Denis Lynch hit 10 of 14 (71%) in 2023 and 15 of 22 in 2022 (68.2%). A few more made field goals last season might have made the difference in some of USC’s narrow losses. This season, Dougherty will put his faith in sophomore Caden Chittenden, who set the Mountain West record last year for a freshman kicker with 26 made field goals. Chittenden seems like a safe bet to be a significant improvement at a position that’s been lacking during Riley’s tenure.

—Makai Lemon will be USC’s top punt returner. Some of you might wonder why USC would invite the added risk of having Lemon return punts. But Riley wouldn’t even entertain that line of thinking this week. The coach said that “there’s nothing anyone would do that would keep us from playing them on punt return.” Given how electric Lemon can be in the return game, I get it. USC has just one punt return touchdown during Riley’s entire tenure. That unit needs to be better.

—Rawlinson Stadium is officially open. Which means the first step of USC’s $200-million Athletics West capital project is complete. Reporters were invited last week on a tour of the Trojans’ gleaming new soccer and lacrosse stadium, and let’s just say it’s a significant improvement on their old home, McAlister Field. McAlister could barely fit 1,000 people, didn’t have lights and didn’t even have locker rooms for the team. Rawlinson has a capacity of 2,500, a press box, viewing decks for fans and a video board, while the lockers are customized based on feedback directly from the players. Women’s soccer coach Jane Alukonis made clear to reporters how much Rawlinson would influence the program’s recruiting efforts. USC invested $38 million to make it happen. Now we can see why.

In case you missed it

Michigan hit with major fine for sign-stealing scheme. Jim Harbaugh’s NCAA exile extended 10 years

Micah Banuelos works to make up for lost time as USC aims to build its strongest offensive line

Why USC is not in the AP Top 25 preseason poll

What I’m reading this week

Todd Marinovich reacts as he scores against Michigan in the Rose Bowl game, Jan. 1, 1990.

(Bob Galbraith / Associated Press)

So much has been written about Todd Marinovich over the years, but never has he written about his harrowing journey in his own words until now. In “Marinovich: Outside the Lines of Football, Art, and Addiction”, the former USC quarterback opens up a vein, giving readers an unvarnished look at how he went from child prodigy and “Robo Quarterback” to drug addict and NFL washout. It’s rare that athletes really examine themselves at the level that Marinovich does in this autobiography. He even tries to correct the record about his father, Marv, who he writes was a “thorny scapegoat.”

If you find Marinovich and his story of redemption at all interesting, I’d recommend checking it out.

Until next time …

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at ryan.kartje@latimes.com, and follow me on X at @Ryan_Kartje. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.