Sweden has moved ahead with plans for a new-generation combat aircraft, with defense firm Saab having received an order for continued conceptual studies for future fighter systems. At this stage, however, it remains unclear if there will definitely be a crewed successor to the Swedish Air Force’s current Gripen fighter, or if the ongoing studies will lead to a combat air ‘ecosystem’ comprised of different types of drones. A combination of crewed and uncrewed platforms remains possible, too.
The Swedish Defense Materiel Administration (FMV) recently awarded Saab with the contract, worth around $276 million and covering the period from 2025 to 2027. As well as the FMV, Saab will work with the Swedish Armed Forces, the Swedish Defense Research Agency, GKN Aerospace, and other unnamed industry partners. The latest contract builds on a previous one signed in March 2024.
The new order includes conceptual studies for both crewed and uncrewed solutions as part of a ‘system of systems’ approach, as well as technology development, and undisclosed demonstrators.
“This order sets the next step on our joint journey in delivering innovative solutions to meet future operational needs of the Swedish Armed Forces and other customers,” said Lars Tossman, head of Saab business area Aeronautics. This statement confirms that Saab is also looking to export whatever platforms ultimately emerge from this development effort. Export orders would help to keep the program financially viable, a challenge we have discussed before. On the other hand, Sweden is in a somewhat unique position in terms of export opportunity, as Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs) and uncrewed combat air vehicles (UCAVs) become items in demand with many air arms.
Within Saab, the next-generation combat aircraft program is known as the Future Combat Air System (FCAS). Confusingly, the same nomenclature is also used by rival British and pan-European future combat air initiatives. While they are all different, it’s worth noting that Saab was also previously involved with the British FCAS program, before stepping away from it.
Meanwhile, all these FCAS efforts feature a crewed fighter at the center, as well as a range of supporting drones and other advanced technologies, as part of a system of systems. The British and pan-European efforts are, however, working on a more aggressive timeline than Sweden’s.
Late last year, Saab presented various concepts related to its FCAS initiative, including a potential new-generation crewed fighter and a series of drones intended to work alongside it.
A more unusual aspect of these interrelated concepts is Saab’s use of shared components across multiple crewed and uncrewed platforms. This includes a concept for commonality between the non-stealthy Gripen E crewed fighter and a stealthy supersonic uncrewed platform.
Leveraging existing technologies should help reduce program costs, accelerate development times, and reduce the maintenance and logistics burden once such systems are in service. However, this is just one possible approach, and, at this early stage, Sweden seems to be keeping its options open.
This would be in keeping with the overall ‘wait and see’ policy that Sweden appears to be adopting as it works out its next-generation air combat requirements.
More broadly, however, what we have seen so far from Saab suggests that the overall FCAS program puts uncrewed platforms in a more central position that the other European FCAS initiatives, in which drones are seen rather more as adjuncts to crewed fighters. Bearing in mind the potential pitfalls to developing sixth-generation crewed fighters from scratch, the Swedish approach might prove to be a safer one, long term.
Saab has assembled some important experience in developing advanced drones, with its most prominent examples including the stealthy Swedish Highly Advanced Research Configuration (SHARC) experimental vehicle. The aim of this project was to design a drone configuration suitable for attack missions, while combining low cost and low signatures. The drone was first flown in 2000.
There was also the Flying Innovative Low-Observable Unmanned Research (FILUR) vehicle, a low-signature demonstrator first flown in 2005. According to Saab, FILUR’s main objective was “to show the tactical importance of stealth technology applied on aerial vehicles, to gain experience and to set a foundation for stealth requirements for future aerial systems and air-surveillance systems.”
These studies were followed by involvement in the French Dassault nEUROn UCAV demonstrator.
Since then, Saab has shown a wind-tunnel model of a supersonic, stealthy ‘loyal wingman’ drone concept, a design that you can read more about here.
At the other end of the scale, Saab’s Peter Nilsson, head of Advanced Programs at the company, has talked about plans for drones that “will only be mock targets and [will] get shot down, but who might help so that you succeed in your mission.” This points to a vision for attritable drones — ones that are inexpensive enough to be willing to lose on high-risk missions while being capable enough to be relevant for those missions.
Last year, Saab revealed studies of its FCAS-related F-series, which include a crewed future fighter, a subsonic uncrewed platform with a weight of no more than five tons, a supersonic uncrewed platform with a weight of more than five tons, and a low-cost subsonic uncrewed platform with a weight of less than one ton. The F-series also includes the Gripen E crewed multirole fighter that’s now in production for Sweden and Brazil. The Gripen E has also been ordered by Thailand and selected as Colombia’s next fighter jet.
It’s even conceivable that Sweden might forego a crewed fighter and pursue a future combat aircraft ‘ecosystem’ that comprises only different categories of drones.
At the same time, it’s noteworthy that Saab specifically states that crewed solutions are part of the ongoing conceptual studies.
Overall, the F-series represents just one of the options, or potential lines of development that Saab is studying as it looks to bring about a Gripen successor. It would also be feasible for Sweden to retain the Gripen E and pair it with stealthy drones indeed. We have discussed in the past how CCAs are arguably even more relevant to so-called ‘generation 4.5’ fighters than fifth-generation ones.
Pairing Gripen E with stealthy CCAs would drastically increase the survivability and tactical flexibility of the crewed fighters, with the drones acting as a powerful force multiplier. Sweden could also build UCAVs that could undertake many deep penetrating missions separate from a CCA. Such a combined CCA and penetrating UCAV concept would allow more mission areas to be covered without developing a new fighter.
It’s also still possible that Sweden might choose to acquire an off-the-shelf solution, perhaps by joining one of the other FCAS initiatives.
However, that would almost certainly bring to an end Sweden’s long history of domestic combat aircraft development. Regardless, with a stated goal to field a successor system to the Gripen around 2050, the latest contract award ensures that conceptual work in this direction will continue and, hopefully, more details of Sweden’s next-generation combat air program will emerge soon.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com