A historically inexpensive trillion-dollar business has the necessary catalysts to leapfrog the likes of Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft by the turn of the decade.
For much of the last 16 years, the stock market has been unstoppable. With the exception of the five-week COVID-19 crash in February-March 2020, and the roughly nine-month bear market in 2022, the bulls have been in firm control on Wall Street.
The catalyst for this ongoing outperformance primarily rests with Wall Street’s trillion-dollar businesses. Think Nvidia (NVDA 0.27%) and Apple, as well as newer trillion-dollar club members Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, which is also known as TSMC.
All told, just 11 publicly traded companies have ever reached a $1 trillion market cap, not accounting for the effects of inflation, and 10 trade on U.S. exchanges. This includes all members of the “Magnificent Seven,” along with Broadcom, TSMC, and billionaire Warren Buffett’s company, Berkshire Hathaway.
Image source: Getty Images.
While Nvidia appears to have the inside path to retaining its current title as Wall Street’s most valuable public company by the turn of the decade, another Mag Seven member is ideally positioned to dethrone Nvidia and leapfrog the likes of Apple and Microsoft along the way.
Despite its AI dominance, Nvidia’s spot atop the trillion-dollar pedestal is far from secure
As of the closing bell on Sept. 24, artificial intelligence (AI) titan Nvidia clocked in with a market cap north of $4.3 trillion. It’s the first public company to have reached the $4 trillion mark, and is believed to have a chance to surpass a $6 trillion valuation, based on the price targets of Wall Street’s most optimistic analysts.
This optimism stems from Nvidia’s dominant position as the leader in AI graphics processing units (GPUs) deployed in enterprise data centers. Three generations of advanced AI chips — Hopper (H100), Blackwell, and now Blackwell Ultra — have enjoyed insatiable demand and extensive order backlogs.
Aside from clear-cut compute advantages, Nvidia’s AI hardware benefits from a persistent lack of AI GPU supply. As long as enterprise demand overwhelms available hardware, Nvidia is going to have no trouble charging a premium for its GPUs and netting a gross margin in excess of 70%.
While these competitive edges would imply that Nvidia’s spot atop the trillion-dollar pedestal is secure, historical precedent would beg to differ.
One of the prime threats to Wall Street’s largest public company is that every next-big-thing trend dating back more than three decades has eventually navigated its way through a bubble-bursting event early in its expansion. This is to say that investors consistently overestimate the early adoption and real-world utility of next-big-thing innovations. Though AI has undeniable long-term applications, most businesses are nowhere close to optimizing these solutions at present, or have yet to net a positive return on their AI investments.
Competition is something that can’t be ignored, either. Even with external competitors lagging Nvidia in compute ability, there’s a very real possibility of Wall Street’s AI darling losing out on valuable data center real estate and/or being undermined by delayed AI GPU upgrade cycles.
Many of Nvidia’s largest customers by net sales are developing AI GPUs to deploy in their data centers. Though these chips won’t be competing with Nvidia’s hardware externally, they’re considerably cheaper to build and more readily accessible. It’s a recipe for Nvidia’s competitive edge to dwindle in the coming years, and for Wall Street’s AI kingpin to cede its title as the most valuable public company.
Image source: Amazon.
This will be Wall Street’s most valuable public company come 2030
Although Apple or Microsoft would seem to be logical choices to reclaim the top spot that both companies have previously held, dual-industry leader Amazon (AMZN 0.78%) is the trillion-dollar stock that looks to have the best chance to become Wall Street’s most valuable company by 2030.
The operating segment that typically introduces consumers to Amazon is its online marketplace. According to estimates from Analyzify, Amazon’s e-commerce segment accounts for a 37.6% share of U.S. online retail sales. Amazon’s spot as the leading e-commerce giant isn’t threatened — although its operating margin associated with online retail sales tends to be razor thin.
While Amazon’s retail operations provide a face for the company, it’s a trio of considerably higher-margin ancillary segments that’ll be responsible for bulking up the company’s operating cash flow in the years to come.
Nothing has more bearing on Amazon’s long-term success than cloud infrastructure platform Amazon Web Services (AWS). Tech analysis firm Canalys pegged its share of worldwide cloud infrastructure spend at 32% during the second quarter, which is nearly as much as Microsoft’s Azure and Alphabet‘s Google Cloud on a combined basis.
AWS has been growing by a high-teens percentage on a year-over-year basis, excluding currency movements. The thinking here is that the inclusion of generative AI solutions and large language model capabilities for AWS clients will only enhance the growth rate for AWS.
As of the June-ended quarter, AWS was pacing more than $123 billion in annual run-rate revenue. Most importantly, AWS is responsible for almost 58% of Amazon’s operating income through the first half of 2025 despite accounting for less than 19% of net sales. Even if an AI bubble forms and bursts, application providers like AWS can weather the storm.
The other pieces of the puzzle for Amazon are advertising services and subscription services. When you’re drawing billions of people to your site monthly, it’s not difficult to command exceptional ad-pricing power.
It also doesn’t hurt that Amazon has landed exclusive streaming partnerships with the National Football League and National Basketball Association. When coupled with e-commerce shipping perks and exclusive shopping events, Amazon has plenty of pricing power with its Prime subscription.
Finally, Amazon is historically inexpensive. From 2010 to 2019, Amazon closed out each year between 23 and 37 times trailing-12-month cash flow. Based on Wall Street’s consensus, Amazon’s cash flow per share is forecast to grow from a reported $11.04 in 2024 to $27.52 in 2029.
In other words, Amazon is valued at only 8 times projected cash flow in 2029, which means it can reasonably add $2.5 trillion to $4 trillion in market value from here and still be trading at a significant discount to its average cash flow multiple during the 2010s.
Sean Williams has positions in Alphabet and Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.