Cracks seem to be appearing in the pan-European Future Combat Air System (FCAS) program, at the heart of which will be the crewed New Generation Fighter (NGF). Reports now suggest that Germany, one of the two major partners in FCAS, is looking at how it might separate itself from France, amid long-running misgivings over workshare arrangements in this vital program.
According to Politico, the German Ministry of Defense discussed the future of FCAS last week with Airbus, which leads the German side of the program. The article cited two unnamed people familiar with those discussions. Reportedly, German defense officials are unhappy with French demands to have a disproportionate share of the program and are now examining other options.
The same article states that German Luftwaffe officials briefed Bundestag lawmakers on the issue earlier this week, quoting an official in the legislature.
According to reports in the German defense media, France is pushing for an 80 percent share of the work on the crewed NGF combat jet, something French officials have denied.
“At some point [the German] parliament will have to say: ‘Either we need this aircraft, or we don’t,’” Social Democratic lawmaker Andreas Schwarz told Politico.
Among the options the German government is said to be exploring is to continue with FCAS without France, although the feasibility of that is highly questionable.
The implication is that Germany would pursue FCAS alongside Spain, which joined the program later, followed by Belgium, as a junior partner. Both Germany and Spain have production lines for the Eurofighter Typhoon, but Germany has not designed and built a crewed combat jet, outside of a wider consortium, for many decades, while Spain has never embarked on such a program, other than as part of the pan-European Eurofighter program.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was in Madrid yesterday, where he discussed FCAS with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.
“We share the assessment that the current situation is unsatisfactory. We are not advancing with this project,” Merz said. “We are both speaking with the French government, and we want a solution as soon as possible.”
On the other hand, whatever path Germany chooses, Spain and/or Belgium might still choose to stay with France, where Dassault Aviation leads that side of the program.
Other possibilities that the German government is said to be weighing up include Germany teaming up with the United Kingdom or Sweden.
Confusingly, the FCAS nomenclature is also used by British-led and Swedish future air combat initiatives, which also feature a crewed fighter at the center, as well as a range of supporting drones and other advanced technologies.
Like the pan-European equivalent, the U.K.-led FCAS is planned to include more than just a new crewed tactical jet, including uncrewed platforms, next-generation weapons, networks and data sharing, and more.
The Tempest fighter at the heart of the U.K. FCAS program also slots into an international collaborative program to field the aircraft, plus associated support and training, to the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan. This effort is known as the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP).
Were Germany to join the U.K.-led FCAS/GCAP effort, it would therefore join Italy and Japan. The suggestion of the U.K.’s BAE Systems, which heads up the British FCAS program, joining Germany to develop a separate new-generation combat aircraft seems much less likely.
Interestingly, when he was chief of the German Luftwaffe, Lt. Gen. Ingo Gerhartz promoted efforts to bring the British and pan-European FCAS programs together by speaking with his Italian and British counterparts. “It can be that we go on different tracks,” Gerhartz told Defense News in 2021. “Hopefully, we will merge eventually.”
On the face of it, Sweden might seem like a more likely partner for Germany, although the country is at a much earlier stage in its FCAS thinking. So far, Saab has presented concepts for a potential new-generation crewed fighter and a series of drones intended to work alongside it.
At this point, it appears that Saab considers drones to be very much at the heart of its FCAS initiative, something that is perhaps not as immediately obvious with the rival British and pan-European programs, although that could change, especially if Germany plots a new course. Already, Airbus and Kratos are pitching the stealthy XQ-58A Valkyrie drone to the German Luftwaffe, and Airbus has also been working to fill an emerging niche for ‘loyal wingman’-type drones, including a stealthy CCA-like concept of its own, known as Wingman.
Saab was also previously involved with the British FCAS program before stepping aside from that.
For Germany, however, time is running out if it wants to reconfigure its position in FCAS and still achieve the goal of replacing its current Eurofighter combat aircraft with a new ‘system of systems,’ including a crewed fighter, around 2040. The U.K.-led FCAS also hopes to field a new fighter and supporting systems around the same time. With that in mind, it’s reported that German officials want guarantees about their country’s role in the program before the end of the year.
In the medium term, Germany’s need for an advanced crewed combat aircraft will be offset somewhat by the arrival of the F-35A, 35 of which are on order, initially to replace the Tornado swing-wing combat jet in the nuclear strike role. Interestingly, reports from earlier this summer suggested that Berlin might be interested in buying another 15 F-35As, for a total of 50, as a bridging solution before FCAS, although officials subsequently denied that was a plan — for the time being, at least.
Now, more than ever, there appears to be a real possibility of Germany and France going their separate ways in the pan-European FCAS, although whether that will lead to four separate FCAS efforts in Europe (including Sweden’s) seems much less likely. Already, there are serious questions about the ability of the continent to sustain a program as expensive and complex as this, especially without guarantees of significant export sales or foreign investment.
The pan-European FCAS may well be at something of a crossroads now, with the defense ministers from France, Germany, and Spain due to meet next month to hammer out the details of the program’s future.
The results of those talks will likely influence whether the program moves into Phase 2, in which the companies involved will produce a demonstrator aircraft. Such a decision is due before the end of this year.
Even then, however, it might not be too late for things to change.
It’s worth recalling that France was originally part of the European consortium that eventually developed and produced the Eurofighter, before leaving that program’s progenitor, and going it alone with the Dassault-developed Rafale.
As far as France’s position on FCAS is concerned, it appears that officials want to speed up the program, in particular wanting to have more control over decision-making, rather than having to discuss details with German and French partners, increasing the risk of delays. This appears to apply to the NGF combat jet, in particular.
While the pan-European FCAS has long been dogged by disputes over workshare arrangements, the timing of the current tensions could hardly be worse. The timeline to get the aircraft and other systems into service is already very tight, and the countries involved are seeking to build up their armed forces in the face of a growing Russian threat on NATO’s eastern flank. More immediately, the French political situation is also in some disarray.
It’s by no means clear that the current frictions will lead to a major reshaping of the pan-European FCAS, and perhaps even alter the paths of rival efforts in Europe. At the very least, however, such issues are likely to delay what is already a highly ambitious and technologically demanding effort.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com